Profiting from the next "panic"

[brickboy240]

I got to thinking the other day ago...

The supply of ARs is coming back. So is the supply of ammo and mags. The prices on ARs worth owning is also hovering back around 1000-1100 or so right now.

Seeing that we are facing the reality of getting Hillary in 2016 and looking back on the ammo and gun buy panics or recent...I have considered buying a second Colt 6920 and squirreling it away in the safe (unfired) until the next "panic" then unloading it to make a profit.

We have seen a pattern where these rifles could easily be unloaded at 1800-2500 at a gun show, after the election of Hillary or the next Sandy Hook type event - this WILL happen again.

What else could anyone buy at a retail outlet and make THIS kind of profit on in the near future? Nothing...really. Also, my other investments have been relatively flat since about 08....I'd like to make some money somewhere and be guaranteed a good return.

We know this type of panic is going to happen again. We also know that the election of Hillary or the next Sandy Hook will also cause price spikes.

Knowing this...and seeing that most other investments are pretty flat right now.

I have to admit...I am thinking very hard about doing this because it is a pretty safe place to park a grand. What else could you buy now for a grand, have it sit with no upkeep and unload it for double in the next few years?

Anybody else thinking of doing something like this?

Do you think it is wrong for wanting to do this?

-brickboy240

[Skyyr]

My thoughts:

• If we are faced with a real AWB, you most likely won't want to sell anything. At least, I wouldn't. The next ban attempts will probably be even more comprehensive and attempt to stop ownership of ALL AR-based firearms. I'd want to keep everything I had for myself and my kids, once they're of age.
• A majority of others are already planning on doing the same thing you're mentioning. This means that the market will initially be flooded with AR's that have jacked up prices and making a profit won't be as easy as it appears.
• Keep in mind that the ATF has determined that buying a rifle with the intent to sell it for profit, even if done legally, can be considered illegal and prosecuted (and they've done so to a few people)

If anything, I'd buy like 10-20k of ammo and hold onto it, with the possibility of selling it if shortages occurred. That seems, to me, to be the best way to invest with the current (and foreseeable) political climate.

[Eurodriver]

Agreed with skyyyr. While it sounds good - what were you doing during the last panic? Probably scoffing at all the idiots spending $2500 on a 6920.

It would be possible but its not guaranteed. If you're buying it with the sole intention of reselling for a profit you're not completely crazy. Its doable. But its not a sure thing (no investments ever are though)

And then there's the "if there really is a ban you won't want to sell it" thing.

[brickboy240]

I cannot decide whether it is dick-ish or a smart thing to do.

Can you think of a safer place to "park" 1100 bucks right now than in a Colt 6920?

Yes, it is illegal to buy for the reason of re-selling but if it is done many months later....very hard to prove.

The next "panic" (...and you know there will be one) one could easily unload a NIB 6920 for 1800-2200 bucks.

-brickboy240

[Safetyhit]

Speculating is what it is. You may be right but then again we may have a Republican president in '16 along with the house. Either way something else could come along to induce a panic, such as the collapse of the economy. Or it may not.

No one here can tell you for sure, but personally I wouldn't buy a firearm for any reason except to own it. If I do sell one day it would be for a practical purpose and not by design.

With the market approaching a hollow 16,000 I like silver at under $20 an ounce. Our economy is a house of cards any anybody really paying attention can see it.

[Smash]

Magazines.

A ton of money was made selling 30rd magazines during the panic. And it never hurts to have more magazines should a ban never come.

No laws against buying to resale.

20 magazines sold for $1100 at the beginning of the last one....

[brickboy240]

A GOP "take over" seems pretty unlikely.

Even if the GOP pulled off this fantasy...the 6920 could still be unloaded in 2016 for it's purchase price or damn close to it.

Yes, I too chastised those that paid 1800 bucks for a stock Bushmaster, but I also scoff at those that blow 60 grand on a new BMW or pay 10 grand for a Rolex. Still...people should be free to make their own bad moves with their own money. It is the Libertarian in me.

Should we learn and make money from the pattern of panics or just come here and whine about those that pay 2 grand for a basic AR?

That is the question...

-brickboy240

[Army Chief]

My thoughts:

• If we are faced with a real AWB, you most likely won't want to sell anything. At least, I wouldn't. The next ban attempts will probably be even more comprehensive and attempt to stop ownership of ALL AR-based firearms. I'd want to keep everything I had for myself and my kids, once they're of age.
• A majority of others are already planning on doing the same thing you're mentioning. This means that the market will initially be flooded with AR's that have jacked up prices and making a profit won't be as easy as it appears.
• Keep in mind that the ATF has determined that buying a rifle with the intent to sell it for profit, even if done legally, can be considered illegal and prosecuted (and they've done so to a few people)

If anything, I'd buy like 10-20k of ammo and hold onto it, with the possibility of selling it if shortages occurred. That seems, to me, to be the best way to invest with the current (and foreseeable) political climate.

This, exactly. As for whether such a move is savvy or slimy, I suppose that I look at it as I might any other commodity. I hate to see opportunists screw their buddies, but I understand that we can't hate them for thinking ahead. I guess in a fairly close-knit community like ours, it leaves a bad taste in your mouth when you're waiting on a Milt Sparks holster for a year while some prospective buyer just got his with the express intent of jacking the price and putting it up on eBay.

I wouldn't do it, and I would likely think you a bit of an ass for doing it, but you would admittedly be a pretty smart ass, as these things go.

[brickboy240]

But by buying the AR right NOW....that does not put pressure on the makers or tie up the supply. Very different than buying DURING the panic...I'd say.

As I sit here and watch my 401k, CDs and other "investments" stuck in neutral....it is tempting to do this.

Also, during the next panic...nobody is forcing people to pay 2 grand for a Colt 6920. They do this all on their own.

You either believe in the free market and all its warts or you do not.

-brickboy240

[Safetyhit]

A GOP "take over" seems pretty unlikely.

Even if the GOP pulled off this fantasy...

It is not nearly as unlikely as you portray. We already have the house and expect more seats in '14. Accompany that with the pending Obamacare disaster, one which now even James Hoffa Jr. has publicly expressed discontent and deep frustration with, along with the pending IRS outcome or financial collapse and we just may indeed have a Republican President in '16.

Personally I believe we will, although by then the damage will be so vast I'm not sure what good it will do.