Ebola fun

[Denali]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/h...rld-topstories

A fascinating look at things from the mathematical perspective,

According to a little noticed study, published last month in the journal eLife, the typical mathematical model that describes the eventual scale of past outbreaks simply doesn't apply to what global health experts consider the worst Ebola epidemic on record. "We're in uncharted waters," Thomas House, a research fellow at the University of Warwick Mathematics Institute and the study author, told OZY. "The scale of this outbreak is much larger than any seen before, so it's very hard to predict."

Plugging the chance event data for each outbreak into House's model yielded its eventual scale — but not the scale of the current outbreak to date, which is spreading much faster than the model predicts. Consistent with the WHO's recent announcement, "the most likely thing to see is doubling if we do nothing else," a pattern not seen in past outbreaks, House said. Worst-case scenario: The doubling progresses until only those who have recovered from or are less susceptible to the disease remain. But for a disease as deadly as Ebola, "we hope there's an intervention to stop things before that happens."

House believes that the unprecedented scale of the current outbreak compared to earlier outbreaks means that it's less likely to be driven by chance events. "Something fundamental" is different about this outbreak, House said

[MountainRaven]

NPR is reporting that roughly three-quarters of Americans polled favor travel bans to/from the countries most effected by the Ebola outbreak.

Link.

ETA: And NPR posted it to their FaceBook page to the unsurprising tune of dozens of libtards proclaiming that three-quarters of Americans are morons, racists, or both.

[FromMyColdDeadHand]

NPR is reporting that roughly three-quarters of Americans polled favor travel bans to/from the countries most effected by the Ebola outbreak.

Link.

ETA: And NPR posted it to their FaceBook page to the unsurprising tune of dozens of libtards proclaiming that three-quarters of Americans are morons, racists, or both.

Now they know what I felt like in 2008 and 2012....

[Eurodriver]

Nina Pham upgraded back to Good condition from fair.

Amber Vinson is now declared free of Ebola virus.

http://news.yahoo.com/nurse-amber-vi...001502702.html

Again, I'm not saying I'll be a test case but it is quite apparent that if one is diagnosed early, in the USA, With a limited number of current cases your chances for surviving are Currently 100%

[ABNAK]

Nina Pham upgraded back to Good condition from fair.

Amber Vinson is now declared free of Ebola virus.

http://news.yahoo.com/nurse-amber-vi...001502702.html

Again, I'm not saying I'll be a test case but it is quite apparent that if one is diagnosed early, in the USA, With a limited number of current cases your chances for surviving are Currently 100%

It appears that way (fingers crossed hoping we don't have any new stats to add to the survival "study").

[Sensei]

Nina Pham upgraded back to Good condition from fair.

Amber Vinson is now declared free of Ebola virus.

http://news.yahoo.com/nurse-amber-vi...001502702.html

Again, I'm not saying I'll be a test case but it is quite apparent that if one is diagnosed early, in the USA, With a limited number of current cases your chances for surviving are Currently 100%

This is encouraging. It appears that she had a very mild form of the disease which is well described in the medical literature. Apparently, a number of people mount an antibody response with little or no symptoms after exposure to the virus. A lot of attention is being given to macrophages, CD4, and CD8 cells. The macros are thought to be the source of tissue factor and other pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, IL1b, TNF, etc.) that cause DIC and multi organ failure. Abnormal programmed cell death called apoptosis depletes the CD4/8 T-cells which hampers the antibody response. This is why we give plasma from previously infected donors - it has anti-ebola antibodies that the host cannot make. In other words, host immune response plays a big role in determining outcome.

[FromMyColdDeadHand]

This is encouraging. It appears that she had a very mild form of the disease which is well described in the medical literature. Apparently, a number of people mount an antibody response with little or no symptoms after exposure to the virus. A lot of attention is being given to macrophages, CD4, and CD8 cells. The macros are thought to be the source of tissue factor and other pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, IL1b, TNF, etc.) that cause DIC and multi organ failure. Abnormal programmed cell death called apoptosis depletes the CD4/8 T-cells which hampers the antibody response. This is why we give plasma from previously infected donors - it has anti-ebola antibodies that the host cannot make. In other words, host immune response plays a big role in determining outcome.

"Congratulations, you beat Ebola- we'll take all your blood now for harvesting plasma!"

I'm AB (neg or pos I forget) which ever one is the universal 'acceptor'. Yeah for me!!!

In an evolutionary sense, it is hard to be deadly and and successful. Kill off all your host/vectors and you burn out. Let some live and you aren't the boogeyman anymore.

[cinco]

Nina Pham upgraded back to Good condition from fair.

Amber Vinson is now declared free of Ebola virus.

http://news.yahoo.com/nurse-amber-vi...001502702.html

Again, I'm not saying I'll be a test case but it is quite apparent that if one is diagnosed early, in the USA, With a limited number of current cases your chances for surviving are Currently 100%

To what extent has Vinson's African heritage/genetic make-up contributed to a natural ability to more fervently resist the virus (given the origin of the virus). Have any definitive studies been done? Or have the low numbers or Caucasian, Asian etc. victims been such to make a study infeasible?

[Denali]

I have read in the media exchanges that a strain of this Ebola is believed to be milder, or that certain people are able to resist its ability to replicate as it might in someone else, also good nutrition and superior health and immune system characteristics should count for something, especially in cases caught early on. Meanwhile, in advanced episodes it looks as if the treatment options are grim,

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0IB2OM20141022

The Ebola crisis is forcing the American healthcare system to consider the previously unthinkable: withholding some medical interventions because they are too dangerous to doctors and nurses and unlikely to help a patient.

U.S. hospitals have over the years come under criticism for undertaking measures that prolong dying rather than improve patients' quality of life.

But the care of the first Ebola patient diagnosed in the United States, who received dialysis and intubation and infected two nurses caring for him, is spurring hospitals and medical associations to develop the first guidelines for what can reasonably be done and what should be withheld.

Officials from at least three hospital systems interviewed by Reuters said they were considering whether to withhold individual procedures or leave it up to individual doctors to determine whether an intervention would be performed.

Ethics experts say they are also fielding more calls from doctors asking what their professional obligations are to patients if healthcare workers could be at risk.

[TAZ]

To what extent has Vinson's African heritage/genetic make-up contributed to a natural ability to more fervently resist the virus (given the origin of the virus). Have any definitive studies been done? Or have the low numbers or Caucasian, Asian etc. victims been such to make a study infeasible?

Or how long did Pham sit at Presby after being diagnosed vs. Vinson immediately going Emory after diagnosis. There could very well be a good deal of genetic content to why she may be more resistant, but I'd bet it has more to do with viral loading and possible immediate advanced care.