Six Questions
Is the MH17 damage consistent with either a buk or an air-to-air attack?
Does the damage assessment favor one type of attack vs. the other?
Could a Buk reasonably have only hit the cockpit?
Could multiple Buks be in play to cause both input and exit holes as show?
If so, could multiple Buks have only hit the cockpit?
Could the flechettes (dart-like or ball bearing-like projectiles) launched when the buk exploded simply have traveled completely through the cockpit leaving both entry and exit holes?
Three Scenarios
If the damage is only (or primarily) consistent with an air-to-air attack, we have a new ballgame.
If the damage is consistent with either a Buk or an air-to-air attack, with roughly equal probability, we have not learned much.
If the answer to number 6 is yes, and the rest of the damage is also consistent with a Buk, and the damage is inconsistent with an air-to-air attack , then it is safe to rule out the latter.
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