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Thread: What next for the AR15 market now that Trump is elected? (A Stick Op-ed piece)

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    What next for the AR15 market now that Trump is elected? (A Stick Op-ed piece)

    A Stick Op-ed piece, arguments, agreements, and generic gnashing of teeth is encouraged in comments.


    Trump is now our President, or at least getting ready to be sworn in. Obviously there is great rejoicing as the Democrat in power, as well as the wannabe successor were no friends of the Second Amendment, or firearm owners in general. How can anyone forget the April 2008 comment of then President Obama when he talked about Americans saying, "They get bitter, they cling to guns or religion", "as a way to explain their frustrations."

    How very clear it was at this point for anyone who hadn't been paying attention, that the elected official had nothing but contempt for those he looked down on, especially Christians and gun owning Americans, like those who founded this country. School and work place shootings kept the administration on its toes seeking a way to ban firearms, or enact heavy restriction, though at a federal level not that much changed. States took up their local fight, with the left coast, and some of the other coastal states enacted registration mandates. High on the list of those who opposed firearms was the AR15. While falsely labeled by the media as "automatic", a "weapon of war", or "assault weapon", the AR15 was used in almost no crimes. Instead, we found over and over that illegally possessed firearms (usually pistols) were used in large scale shootings, local crimes, and gang warfare. Terrorism was a word the administration had a hard time using, but calling for constitutional pillage made one popular in circles of the left.

    With Hillary Rodham Clinton as the Democrats nominee, and looking to be an easy victor by media reportings and polls, many people took to stocking up on firearms. The AR15, along with its component pieces (ammo and magazines) were a common fixate for many who were looking to make a quick buck flipping AR receivers. The last several years of President Obama brought a surge of bargain basement AR15s and low prices. Most of the items were found to be of exceedingly low quality, with some companies selling rejected parts, and others selling airsoft pieces to the less than knowledgeable masses.

    With any group of people, there will always be fans, as well as detractors. In the case of the cheap AR15 parts, we saw lowers at prices around $30-40, and people gobbled them up as fast as they could. Many of these people were clear and vocal about their desire to flip the lowers and make massive profit if and when new legislation came about, or a new Democrat came into office. Taking the illegality of buying weapons to sell away for a minute (without proper licensing), let us think for a moment about what the flooded market now contains. Junk. Pure, unadulterated junk. Junk and rejected parts being resold is nothing new, nor is it unexpected that people would try to defend their purchases claiming "it is just as good" as Colt. The question we look at now is what happens next?

    In talking with a few industry friends, there is a strong feeling there is going to be a shift. The days of buying substandard items is diminishing, primarily because the need to stock up is gone for the moment. Add in the glut of rubbish which will be making its way to the second hand market, and we find a exceedingly soft market for the dregs of AR15 names. For most firearm purchasers, the guns they buy are looked at as a means to protect, hunt, collect, or for sport. What Obama did was create a secondary market that will take years to fade away, with generic hoarding giving way to angry wives and regret.

    I believe we can expect to see additional firearm sales engaging the consumer in the form of shotguns, and hunting weapons. An example of this would be a few years back when Obama was getting elected and a panic was ongoing. A store in the PNW was selling Colt 6920s for $6,000 each. When called out on it by a customer who said he couldn't afford it, he was told the Colts weren't for him, they were for Boeing union employees who would buy them and just work some extra shifts at double or triple time. The guys would get bored with them and trade or sell them back towards other things later. Did it work? Well, the store sold out of Colts. Of course not all the weapons were traded back, but evidently a bunch were and it was for upper end hunting rifles which is what those guys probably should have bought in the first place.

    Another area where we can expect to see a surge is upper end pieces, and generic upgrades. When bolts break at the cam pin, it is hard to deny your problems. When cheap optics or irons break, a weapon is useless. Magazines that don't work, weapons that don't cycle etc etc.. People who learn they have rubbish in their hands are much more inclined to fix it with decent parts than they are with additional slop pieces.

    Lastly, what reason is there to buy slop anymore? Saving money to buy the scrapings of low tolerance suspect weapons is akin to the gang banger buying a Jennings on the street. With a Pro 2A President coming into power, there is no reason not to save a little longer, and get a Colt or upper end weapon, custom build, or pieces that aren't suspect. Some people will nod their head in agreement when they read this, others won't care either way, and some will get irate. If you are one that gets irate, good, you have paid decent money and been shafted for long enough, it is time you recognized this and did something about it.

    This is a Stick Op-ed piece, not a reflection of the board, its users, persons and/ or companies that drink, drunk text, harass, or work with Stick in any way, shape or form.
    Comments are encouraged, but try not to use many syllables as the writer has a lifetime of loud noises, fighting, and being a grunt in both MIL and LE uniforms. Large words may only confuse him.
    Stick


    Board policy mandates I state that I shoot for BCM. I have also done work for 200 or so manufacturers within the firearm community. I am prior service, a full time LEO, firearm instructor, armorer, TL, martial arts instructor, and all around good guy.

    I also shoot and write for various publications. Let me know if you know cool secrets or have toys worthy of an article...


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  2. #2
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    Interesting take. A few of my partners are heading to a gun show this weekend and all I could say was to hold off on any purchases for now.
    Some are looking for parts and the others are grabbing ammo. I'm under the impression that prices will continue to lower and that it maybe wise to see where it goes.
    Myself, I'm saving up for a nice Colt or BCM that is now at a more reasonable price. Post election win for me!

    Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nocalsocal View Post
    Interesting take. A few of my partners are heading to a gun show this weekend and all I could say was to hold off on any purchases for now.
    Some are looking for parts and the others are grabbing ammo. I'm under the impression that prices will continue to lower and that it maybe wise to see where it goes.
    Myself, I'm saving up for a nice Colt or BCM that is now at a more reasonable price. Post election win for me!

    Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

    It might be a bit early, but I would guess some guys are going to be looking to offload sooner rather than later before the market gets ultra soft. In a few months, the Anderson lowers and other cheap stuff won't be worth what was paid for it. Especially if they are still being pumped out at the factory.
    Stick


    Board policy mandates I state that I shoot for BCM. I have also done work for 200 or so manufacturers within the firearm community. I am prior service, a full time LEO, firearm instructor, armorer, TL, martial arts instructor, and all around good guy.

    I also shoot and write for various publications. Let me know if you know cool secrets or have toys worthy of an article...


    Flickr Tumblr Facebook Instagram RECOILMAGAZINE OFF GRID RECOIL WEB

  4. #4
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    I thought the same too. I'm feeling that the production side was pumping out products as fast as they could to flood the market in case the election doomsday happened. Now the sellers have inflated overstock to get rid of.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nocalsocal View Post
    I thought the same too. I'm feeling that the production side was pumping out products as fast as they could to flood the market in case the election doomsday happened. Now the sellers have inflated overstock to get rid of.

    Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
    Palmetto, anyone?

    Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hayseed View Post
    Palmetto, anyone?

    Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk

    I wrote it trying to avoid getting into company names, but there are companies who have set their relative value at near zero. I think back to when CavArms had a distributor who dumped lowers on the market for something like $50 to get rid of them. I think they were mad, or maybe a clearance, but the point was they had set the value of the item to dirt levels. That did more damage to the pricing than anything else. People looked at that and figured the lowers were worth $50. Who is going to look at a bottom of the line lower now, that has known QC issues, and want to pay much of anything for it?
    Stick


    Board policy mandates I state that I shoot for BCM. I have also done work for 200 or so manufacturers within the firearm community. I am prior service, a full time LEO, firearm instructor, armorer, TL, martial arts instructor, and all around good guy.

    I also shoot and write for various publications. Let me know if you know cool secrets or have toys worthy of an article...


    Flickr Tumblr Facebook Instagram RECOILMAGAZINE OFF GRID RECOIL WEB

  7. #7
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    I believe that a good number of smaller firms will fold eventually as the market will be flooded if production isn't curtailed. Companies that are firm in the market will remain strong, although they will need to be competitive and innovative as well. I don't think we will see much concerning value with quality offerings but the lower end ones will suffer as they have in the past.
    I would caution folks not the "relax" so to speak with the never ending submission of legislation that is a constant threat. This is the time for good things to be done in that regard. I do hope that there continues to be market innovation.
    Of course there will always be the folks that believe an bottom feeder brand X is the same as let's say a BCM/Colt, etc. I know most of the people I know are in this camp and I've given up trying to convince them otherwise. Heck, they still think a 1n7 can't shoot 55 grain ball, you know the old wood and steel crowd.
    GET IN YOUR BUBBLE!

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    Always buy quality. I hope to see BCM have time in the next four years to produce a 7.62 rifle now.

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    My prediction is we see the return of free bcgs with uppers and sub $300 cases of brass plinking ammo. Maybe even ...... .22lr.

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  10. #10
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    After a collective pause, people are right back to calling and e-mailing us for quality AR's (BCM, Colt, etc), which I am still out of and remain hard to get.


    C4

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