NFA Slowdown?

[6933]

First, I could be wrong. Have been in/out of hospital lately with back surgery/complications so haven't been on top of it as much as I should so my thoughts are based on an incomplete picture.

In several discussions with others, there seems to be a feeling the market has slowed the past several months. I haven't noticed prices increasing and have seen some MG's being sold at prices lower than I expected.

Could be simply what I have seen is a small sample size and not indicative.

What have my fellow NFA aficionados noticed in the market so far this yr? How do you see the market proceeding the next yr? Just curious b/c over the long haul prices will definitely increase and I am in no way suggesting the market is tanking. Maybe just a small breather before heading up or slightly down more/taking longer to sell before resuming upward/selling more quickly. Worst case I see is the market is depressed for a little while before changing direction. MG's seemed correlated with markets but I don't think they are really synched. Just a correlation not causation.

This is basically just an academic discussion for those of us in the game so let us keep it as such. I look at MG's as simply another part of the portfolio and enjoy looking at them from a financial analysis standpoint. The fact they are fun as f*** is an added bonus. Can't take a stock out and let it rip.

[st381183]

In general, all firearms sales seem to be slumping. Silencers, MGs, etc. it is a buyers market. People waiting for the HPA to pass like it's going to happen tomorrow with silencers hanging in blister packs for $40 each. Even if HPA passed tomorrow it would be at least 2 years before prices and supplies met demands. MGs are tricky to track due to what's actually out there, condition, caliber, what's hot, what's not, etc. Things like the Echo trigger or the Franklin binary trigger are good enough for the non-millionaire firearms enthusiast.

Manufacturers in all classes geared up for a Hillary presidency, plus folks are spent out on the run up panic buying and 41f changes for trusts. I think a slow down for NFA Bramch to catch the hell up on the approval process is in order because I have a bunch of stuff in NFA jail. If you wait for HPA to pass before you buy a silencer than be prepared to wait many years. If you are in the market for a firearm now is the time to buy.

I think another factor is AR-15 weariness. It's the same old same old. Innovation and invention will rise to to the top. Look at the increasing popularity of bullpups and factory cut pistol slides for optics. I'm always a sucker for FDE polymer guns from the manufacturer. The industry as a whole is changing and full auto rifles are not in demand as they were. Maybe due to the false belief that Trump will NEVER make or sign anti 2A legislation. If I saw a transferable M16 for $12-15 thousand I would try my hardest to get one. As an investment it is okay but it is difficult to liquidate quickly due to limited buyers with the patience to wait.

Just my .02$.

[6933]

If you are in the market for a firearm now is the time to buy.

As an investment it is okay but it is difficult to liquidate quickly due to limited buyers with the patience to wait.

Can't disagree with either. The NFA market is so niche that any "strategy" is just as likely to succeed as fail. I do consider them as an asset; however since I have no plans to sell, only pass down(like many people) this distorts the market and makes it unpredictable in any investment sense. Non-liquid asset may be the best description. Just like land, you may own it and put a price on it, but when it comes time to sell, it may or may not go as planned.

[bighawk]

This is simply a sample size of one store so take it for what its worth but I had this conversation the other day with the NFA guy at my LGS as I was filling out some form 4's. He is the only person who handles NFA stuff for the whole store and from what I understand they do a large amount of NFA sales/transfers.

I was under the same impression as well as thinking there was going to be a big slowdown post 41F and even more of a slowdown post election. My dealer said they have seen no real slowdown of NFA sales as of yet. Thought process being people didn't let up on Gun/NFA purchasing being an election year with an extremely anti 2A person predicted to win the election.

[st381183]

Can't disagree with either. The NFA market is so niche that any "strategy" is just as likely to succeed as fail. I do consider them as an asset; however since I have no plans to sell, only pass down(like many people) this distorts the market and makes it unpredictable in any investment sense. Non-liquid asset may be the best description. Just like land, you may own it and put a price on it, but when it comes time to sell, it may or may not go as planned.

My buddy has a transferable Tommy Gun from 1972. $15000. He shoots it maybe once a year on his birthday, 30 rounds. He might not be typical but for us $15000 is a lot of money. As an investment it's great, value stays at what he paid. MGs are fun but those who have them don't "enjoy" them every time they go to the range. They are too expensive to risk damaging and replacement parts diminish its collectability. So they really do become like a bar of gold for us mere mortals and stays locked up and cherished with plans to pass down as an heirloom.

[plinkerr]

As an investment it's great, value stays at what he paid.

You and I have very different ideas of what is considered to be a great investment.

[Jmacken37]

Depends...

Suppressors and beltfeds have slowed.

Mac 11/Nine sales are still pretty darn strong (word is out that Lage is working on a 5.56 upper).

[JoshNC]

My buddy has a transferable Tommy Gun from 1972. $15000. He shoots it maybe once a year on his birthday, 30 rounds. He might not be typical but for us $15000 is a lot of money. As an investment it's great, value stays at what he paid. MGs are fun but those who have them don't "enjoy" them every time they go to the range. They are too expensive to risk damaging and replacement parts diminish its collectability. So they really do become like a bar of gold for us mere mortals and stays locked up and cherished with plans to pass down as an heirloom.

I own a number of MGs and shoot all of them. I enjoy all of them every time I take them to the range. Also, your friend's Thompson is likely a Numrich assembled gun or West Hurley Auto Ordnance. While these are not as desirable as Bridgeport AOs, other WW2 guns, or Colts they are transferable MGs and thus command significant value. They haven't been worth $15k for a good few years. They are more like $20-22k now.

[st381183]

I own a number of MGs and shoot all of them. I enjoy all of them every time I take them to the range. Also, your friend's Thompson is likely a Numrich assembled gun or West Hurley Auto Ordnance. While these are not as desirable as Bridgeport AOs, other WW2 guns, or Colts they are transferable MGs and thus command significant value. They haven't been worth $15k for a good few years. They are more like $20-22k now.

For an average person who can afford ONE MG in a lifetime, they are typically not resold and are treated as an heirloom. I can't afford one and if I had a windfall and bought one it would be hard to justify hard use of said $20000-$30000 MG just for s&g's. MG investment is a rich man's game given today's prices. Not to mention trying to convince the wife that the MG is our retirement nest egg honey.

As far as an investment, I misspoke and should have said not that the value stays the same but rather the value should never sink below what was paid initially. His rifle will never be below $15000 in value and is probably worth much more. But he would never sell it and he intends to pass it down. He let me shoot it and offers to let me shoot on the yearly birthday outing with it. I refuse, it racks my nerves to risk HIS investment so I have more fun watching him. If I want to shoot a MG I'll rent one at a range. 22 years as a cop and soldier has mostly sated me on MG shooting. I would love to have one and love to see the Hughes amendment repealed but if that happened a lot of collectors would lose a lot of money on their investment.

One last point on MGs as an investment. It's hard to sell the investment you cherish in order to turn a profit. So if you love guns and are investing in a MG, it's going to hurt like hell to sell just for a few thousand dollars of profit which is why very few premium grade MGs show up in the market place.

[Bret]

I would love to have one and love to see the Hughes amendment repealed but if that happened a lot of collectors would lose a lot of money on their investment.

I'll trade a financial loss for the government not violating my 2nd Amendment rights any day.

One last point on MGs as an investment. It's hard to sell the investment you cherish in order to turn a profit. So if you love guns and are investing in a MG, it's going to hurt like hell to sell just for a few thousand dollars of profit which is why very few premium grade MGs show up in the market place.

I think most come to market when people die or when their interest level in a large pile of money outweighs the shooting interest level.