Plan Changes due to Current Threats?

[Firefly]

Wanna know the difference between prepared and paranoid?

Not a damn thing if you are elsewhere when S tops off.

Doc is bringing up relevant discussion and some people want to imply he is LARPing.

Um...we've had an interesting 5 years of civil unrest and natural disaster.

Anyways, My main thing is I have a Site B, I keep gas in my car, I keep important documents, I keep water on hand, I keep emergency cash, and thats as general as I want to get on an open forum. Even the CDC/FEMA recommends these things.

I'm not focused on weapons, or rather am unconcerned to discuss in this role on an open forum, as if I am on my own time; I am a strict evacuee.

I will say that if ones plan revolves around a major highway; consider alternate routes.

My goal in such a position is to avoid, avoid, avoid. These are relevant concerns. Mobbery is harsh and when order is restored; they wont go after the mob. They will go after "acceptable" and indictable people. Because that is simply our society now.

I'm sure there are a lot of people in Houston today who would be long elsewhere if they knew a week ago what they know now.

JMHO

also in my not so humble opinion, people with yellow usernames have them for a reason. You can either run your mouth or learn something but you cannot do both.

[pinzgauer]

getting back to Doc's original question (I think, anyway)...

I do not believe Antifa/BLM/angry villager mobs will ever be a risk to most suburban homes/neighborhoods for some very specific reasons. Not that they would not want to, but just that they depend on specific conditions that are difficult to achieve outside of dense urban areas:

• They need a rally point, and usually a focus. A square, a march, a rally, etc
• They need a concentration of foes to react against usually
• They don't travel far, either in the wave of riot or to initiate. There are exceptions to this, the organizers do, and some crowds are bussed in. But the angry mobs flood in from neighboring areas. Without that you don't have critical mass. Put another way, there's not enough space to park all the vehicles to carry your average BLM riot, nor will they walk the 15-20 miles to get to the suburbs
• Lower target density. gotta walk further, etc
• Fear of encountering "hard targets". In my area, and many others I know, they would be in for a bad surprise if you blocked many of the surburban moms I know. Most drive suburbans, many are packing and shoot regularly. They'll drive off if they can. Drive through if they have to to protect kids, and will happily shoot if threatened
• Little or no tolerence by LEO for riot/protest stuff. Don't have a permit, go to jail. Unlike Atlanta (liberal mayor & LEO), most of the suburbs are fairly law and order. Love to play swat. "Hey, we get to use our sniper!!!" Not always a good thing, but also very inclined to nip this stuff in the bud
• The "Hold my beer, I'm goin in" crowd. Just enough 4x4 driving, rebel flag, heavily armed bubbas who would jump right in

There's probably more, and these are just observations that have held true on all the events I've seen/examined. My daughter had BLM fire up one block from an condo she was living in while interning in downtown Atlanta. Scary. But GSP stopped them the instant they hit the interstate, with support of the Mayor/APD (to their credit). Two blocks away folks just minding their business, unaware.

We've had extremists in N GA, where LEO kept the two (vile) groups separated and maintained lawful assembly successfully.

I think the big risk is inadvertently running into a bad situation in the urban areas. Been close in Atlanta. Scared the crap out of myself and family driving in Paris couple of weeks ago. (Accidentally entered a Sharia zone getting to our hotel)

If I go into likely areas (all urban), I go prepped. Paranoid or not. Same if I go on a road trip in the US. Pistol handy, Carbine in discrete (really discrete) case with 120 rounds.

But I'm not worried about the suburban neighborhoods, or even the small townships. It would be an event that changed the narrative if it occurred because it would not turn out like St Louis or Baltimore. This gets into the "Does the (Left/Right) have the balls for a war" space. I don't know anyone looking for a war.

But most I know will defend their family/space/neighborhood if pressured. Including the white headed crotchety lady who lives next door! We'd make fun of their guns. They have a belly (like me). They don't train. Would not know an ACOG from a cogwheel. But they can shoot their 870 / 30-06/7 Mag / Kimber / Glock. I know many non-tactical types who shoot 3-4 deer every year. And take a couple dozen dove on the wing. Between UGA / Bama football games. And that's the bubba-mommas! Their husbands get a couple more deer with crossbow.

To be clear, this is not a black/white thing. Many of the folks I allude to above are black. Not as many, but enough. We get along. They don't agree with BLM tactics or many times the narrative. Bubba is (now-adays) pretty much color blind (Other than college colors "Orange is not in my color wheel")

Angry mob better fear the bubba neighborhood yard sale crowd! And heaven forbid if they ever got onto I-285 / I-75 / I-85 during rush hour. Which runs 5:45-19:30 every day.

[pinzgauer]

On the whole natural disaster societal collapse thing: I spent a week in the Katrina zone, went in 3 days after it hit. Huge damage, thousands of displaced persons in coastal Miss and Louisiana. No power/comms. Water shortages initially. Nary a riot. Did not see any looting. Same for the prior hurricane damage area I deployed into (Hugo).

Difference: Not in the large urban zones. New Orleans was a perfect storm of density, demographics, poor/missing LEO leadership, trunking radio failures, etc.

I don't disagree that the urban areas can go bad, especially with the typical liberal leadership (yeah, let's confiscate the guns).

The real risk in less dense areas is: Water, food, medicine / healthcare, disease.

We saw (and I barely avoided) very bad respiratory and intestinal bugs sweep entire high schools with the halls and classrooms packed with families. No power, no A/C, minimal air movement.

Buddies chose to take a shower in one school. I deferred, doing the baby wipe (actually hospital wipe) sink bath. They got skin infections, some pretty hard to beat. And from memory, one might have gotten hep.

I lived off MRE's and heater meals, avoided the cafeteria and even relief kitchen food once they got going. No shortage of packaged food and bottled water, though I had a purifier and also treatment pills if needed.

To be clear, I was (illegally at the time) well armed, but kept it out of sight and never needed. Even had 5.56 carbine that would have survived a checkpoint cursory search.

But what I worried about was getting sick, that was the problem we saw. No trauma, no tourniquets needed. Hygene and clean water. And sometimes that's harder than you think. You can nail up comms. Call in LEO/NG. Defend yourself if needed. But hard to stop virus/bug outbreaks.

[ScottsBad]

The only additional danger that has changed my thinking is the increased possibility of random mob violence because of the increase in racial, economic, and political divisions. Here in the Bay Area (CA) we are seeing more violence on commuter trains by flash mobs or small groups. More broad daylight robberies on the street and general hostility. To mitigate; We simply do not use public transportation except when absolutely necessary. We don't venture into ethnic communities except in groups. We keep our heads on swivels always alert for potential danger. And we don't drive into neighborhoods where there could be potential danger.

I don't see these groups being able to muster large scale mayhem or shut anything down. Where I live in the suburbs bad actors would be far from their shallow base of support anyway. And we don't like people messing with our safe little bubble out here.

I actually worry more about financial/monetary event or a Constitutional crises which divides the country. OR a major attack from a terrorist country with nukes. Or a huge natural disaster. Or a pandemic. Not these jokers in white or black hoods/masks, or BLM. The Marxist ideology is a medium to long term threat and a slow moving disaster for America which might result, one day, in a National Emergency, but it won't happen overnight.

I just continue to build my general prep.

[Firefly]

Actually, Pinzgauer is bringing up a lot of good points.

Location determines a lot. If you are stuck in a built up area, you will have an overwhelmed public safety response as well as disarray and a wave of humanity.

Suburbs wont really see the flash rioting for aforementioned reasons.

In disasters, the majority of people will just want to not be in a disaster. There will always be vermin.

Also good mentioning sanitation and hygiene. I would not trust any running water for those reasons.

FWIW my prepared/paranoid line was meant that it doesn't matter who thinks what you are if it works.

But per flash riots (I dont care to differentiate the flavors at this point), the biggest concern is for people in built up but highly restricted areas.

The "problem" with relying on the authorities is they may not get to you. Ever.

One thing I like to do, and this is even on my own time, is have a tablet with maps that dont require wifi/cell service.

Know where one is and where one can go. People in large groups are dangerous.

I cannot really add to Pinzgauer as he outlined a lot of good info.

I just know I like to keep fresh water on me and just things I might need. Like everyday, but could be pressed into emergency service. If done right it can fit in a rather modest jump bag.

I will say this as an aside, that's what I like about GA. Even the people who "dont have guns", have guns.

But if I lived in LA or something, then I'd be concerned.

I dont think one needs to have a large ALICE pack, HK416 10", 20 topped off USGI mags, tiger stripes, and face grease on them like all day (I wouldnt necessarily judge even so depending....)

but sensible stuff and preparation will put one ahead of most who will be running around flailing their arms in a panic waiting for someone who a) doesn't know where they are or b) wont get there in time.

JMHO

[pinzgauer]

The only additional danger that has changed my thinking is the increased possibility of random mob violence because of the increase in racial, economic, and political divisions. Here in the Bay Area (CA) we are seeing more violence on commuter trains by flash mobs or small groups. More broad daylight robberies on the street and general hostility. To mitigate; We simply do not use public transportation except when absolutely necessary. We don't venture into ethnic communities except in groups. We keep our heads on swivels always alert for potential danger. And we don't drive into neighborhoods where there could be potential danger.

That's my biggest concern when overseas. Just spent 2 wks in Scandinavia and France, and 3 wks in Barcelona, Northern Italy, Switzerland, Austria, and Hungary last Christmas.

Big crowds around public transport and pedestrian zones are (to me) the biggest risk areas. Knife/Axe/cleaver/Vehicle attacks

We were in Paris the day or two prior to the Barcelona attack, and while we were just walking around Notre Dame we saw the Gendamerie go into action big time closing streets, towing vehicles, and moving in with M4'ish carbines, clear mags, clearly cocked and locked trigger finger safely extended mode. And they looked more like FFL than police! Not your normal white shirt types on vespas. We think they got notification of some crowd event, just did not know where.

That and the accidental Sharia neighborhood event put us back on alert after getting a bit complacent in Sweden/Norway/Denmark/NL. (Never even saw noticeable immigrant presence, much less risk). Swedish Army museum in Stockholm is worth a visit, by the way.

We had been in the "La Rambla" ped zone in Barcelona last winter, knew exactly where the attack was and why it was so deadly. They have a particular risk as many old town areas in Europe are pedestrian zones, but are not blocked to traffic to allow deliveries, trams, etc. (Though we are seeing more) But most are protected only by the risk of an 800 Euro ticket if you accidentally drive into one without living there or delivery permit.

But whole family was on alert in crowds, being armed with nothing more dangerous than a zebra metal pen. Wife even made us move once as we were inadvertently standing next to a cargo van on one of the streets they were clearing in Paris.

Enjoyed the travel, but felt good to be back where EDC is the norm

[acnewman55]

Located in the seattle area a few miles from the urban core. Very liberal city with strong support for BLM, Antifa, etc.

Seattle is well know for turnout and intensity of protests and riots, and we see flashes annually on May Day.

But these never leave the urban core. They concentrate on areas where rioters can cause the most damage in a short time and smash the most windows of large corporations and symbols of capitalism. Starbucks, Nike, etc.

Not concerned about them marching 3-4 miles to where I'm at.

Could they? Sure - but what would they target here? Nothing but apartments, small homes and restaurants. There's just not a concentration of corporate wealth for them to go after. And they'd have to disperse over a larger area to do significant damage.

And they wouldn't get nearly the attention from the media - and that's what drives this machine ultimately.


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[Hmac]

getting back to Doc's original question (I think, anyway)...

I do not believe Antifa/BLM/angry villager mobs will ever be a risk to most suburban homes/neighborhoods for some very specific reasons. Not that they would not want to, but just that they depend on specific conditions that are difficult to achieve outside of dense urban areas:

• They need a rally point, and usually a focus. A square, a march, a rally, etc
• They need a concentration of foes to react against usually
• They don't travel far, either in the wave of riot or to initiate. There are exceptions to this, the organizers do, and some crowds are bussed in. But the angry mobs flood in from neighboring areas. Without that you don't have critical mass. Put another way, there's not enough space to park all the vehicles to carry your average BLM riot, nor will they walk the 15-20 miles to get to the suburbs
• Lower target density. gotta walk further, etc
• Fear of encountering "hard targets". In my area, and many others I know, they would be in for a bad surprise if you blocked many of the surburban moms I know. Most drive suburbans, many are packing and shoot regularly. They'll drive off if they can. Drive through if they have to to protect kids, and will happily shoot if threatened
• Little or no tolerence by LEO for riot/protest stuff. Don't have a permit, go to jail. Unlike Atlanta (liberal mayor & LEO), most of the suburbs are fairly law and order. Love to play swat. "Hey, we get to use our sniper!!!" Not always a good thing, but also very inclined to nip this stuff in the bud
• The "Hold my beer, I'm goin in" crowd. Just enough 4x4 driving, rebel flag, heavily armed bubbas who would jump right in

Yes. Outside of a dense population concentration and without an inciting stimulus as a spark, I don't believe that there'se nough concentrated anger to sustain any kind of broad-based SHTF/EOTWAKI insurrection event that spills beyond the immediate locale. Perhaps those living in the inner cities should be prepared, but I don't see it as a general threat to society, and certainly not in smaller population centers and certainly not in rural America. As for natural disasters...they're limited in scope and duration and don't pose a threat to society in general. As someone said in this thread...maybe me...you "prep" according to some combination of the likelihood of your needs, your level of paranoia, and the nature of your particular EOTWAKI fantasy. Just an opinion from someone with less skin in the game than some of the posters in this thread, apparently.

Edit: I'm assuming limited-scope natural disasters based on what the US has faced in its history. If the Yellowstone supervolcano blows, or a meteor lands in Chicago...all bets are off.

[RobertTheTexan]

Enjoyed the travel, but felt good to be back where EDC is the norm

Sounds like a great vacation. I've traveled to those locations but during safer times. Glad you & your family made it home safely.
I travel for work and I know that feeling of missing weight st the 1530 position. I've never traveled for work out of state and brought a firearm. However I now always check a bag. Yeah it's a pain in the butt and yes some risk for delayed bags, but I see every time my bags is scanned into an aircraft so I don't so much worry. I check a bag because I travel with a good locker and a small fixed blade. (ESEE 4P). I haven't always done that, even a few years ago, I didn't really worry about it, but because I do travel into urban areas, I often don't really have a choice where I'm working or staying in terms of a hotel, so I definitely want to carry something that affords a measure of protection. It's not a firearm, but it does have its purpose. My EDC and gear I travel era has changed as I stated in my earlier post.

Bottom line, I think most of us who spends any amount of time in these urban zones - whether living there or working is treating EDC and just daily vigilance different than 5 years ago. Those that have not had any behavioral changes and spends time in congested urban areas were either prepared initially or has a mentality that I do not understand.


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[Todd.K]

I'm assuming limited-scope natural disasters based on what the US has faced in its history. If the Yellowstone supervolcano blows, or a meteor lands in Chicago...all bets are off.

You never know what you don't know. It was only a few decades ago that the Pacific NW was not an earthquake zone. Now we know it's a 9.0 every 300 to 500 years with no small quakes in between.