Plan Changes due to Current Threats?

[ndmiller]

Here's the deal; ask the folks in Houston what SHTF looks like.

Apocalypses are personal...

Agreed, I was in Houston for Ike in 2008 and I have friends in Houston now. No issues for me and my family back then or for my friends now.
We had a week to prepare in both cases, prepared, fine for weeks after until the dust settled. Needed a crane to get a tree of neighbors house, but no issues otherwise. Strategy was to avoid known flood areas (all of Houston inside 610 loop).
Also know people who didn't prepare for Ike and partied up to when the storm came. Their result shelters, hunger, thirst, loss of property, dealing with FEMA, no car, no place to live, a total mess.

To answer the OP question, routine hasn't changed one iota, but the same since my first Florida Hurricane experience in the late 90's (PPE Prepare, Plan Execute). People have always had the capability to be savages, ANTIFA and BLM are just scary political labels for people.

What's everyone's thoughts on martial law, bugging out with gear (guns or supplies confiscated), and being locked in to an area (roadblocks)? Maybe your home base is overrun and you can't go back, nor get out.
Example-na'er do wells cause problems, government reacts, martial law declared, good people get stuck and can't get out of hot zone.

Been through 25+ natural disasters a handful bad news (Ike, Wilma, Snomageddan Atlanta). In all cases we had plenty of notice, took it seriously and prepared with Food, Water, Alcohol, Propane, Charcoal, and shock for neighbors pool. No thoughts on any of your list because too far fetched for a prepared suburb dweller. City folk are not going to have the means to hike 50+ miles to me in any of these cases and all my neighbors prepared like me. If you don't prepare you are subject to the general public and lines for food/water/gas and government help with direction on what to do when. If you prepare you are not because you're not in that situation or anywhere near it. It's really that simple, 4 cases of water, 1 extra propane canister, 1 case of shock, beer & wine, a little extra food, extra bug spray, cars filled up got my family and neighbors through dozens of Hurricanes in Florida even without power for 2 weeks with no significant inconvenience at all.

[Outlander Systems]

Hahahaha. Thanks, Brosef.

A good video from JSOU highlighting the sort of emergent conflicts on the horizon alluded to in the OP is as follows:



The nature of 21st Century violence and small wars means concepts and distributed insurgencies can spread faster and deeper than in the past. Where, prior to instantaneous, easy, global communications, radical groups could not exert INDOC pressure very far outside their local sphere-of-control and influence.

As intimated to in my example of the KLA, 200 scum****s essentially imploded an entire country.

The most prudent COA would be to perform an Area/Threat Assessment, and base any actions from there.

We have an internet WINNER!!!!!!!

[RobertTheTexan]

This is good stuff bro. Good stuff.... but...

Cough, Kosovo Liberation Army, Cough...

Doc needs no introduction to this, but I'll just leave it here for everyone else.

From the JOC IW:

"Since irregular warfare is a contest for legitimacy and influence over the relevant populations, the populations carry particular weight as both the battleground and object of the conflict. Stealthy adversaries hide among the population, using it as a shield and willing or unwilling helper. These adversaries against unpopular, abusive, or corrupt governments to gain popular support and legitimacy, such as in an insurgency. At other times, the “relevant” population these adversaries are trying to influence could be very particular government or security apparatus officials, commercial activities and businesses, or even groups outside of the host nation and not the general public, as seen with irregular adversaries who have infrastructure links to diasporas and criminal enterprises. These adversaries target civilians to intimidate and coerce them, and expose the inability of the state to provide protection. Given the psychological and political dimensions of the contest, perceptions are as important as any physical reality of the battlefield. Adept adversaries plan their actions around sophisticated communications strategies enabled by the globalization of information and technology. In this age of instant communication, actors have become proficient at crafting their accounts of events into a compelling story or narrative. The intent of this narrative is to influence not only the local population but the global community as well. The battle of the narrative, as this struggle for influence has been called, is waged primarily through critical elements of the population who have formal or informal power or standing to sway the sentiments or induce the compliance of the general population."

How many people here even consider IW/AW /UW as a factor here in the red, white and blue? The posters here who have abundantly said "aww ANTIFA etc. aren't a bona fide problem. It's just the media." already have their opinions formed. They already know, because they know. Ya know?

B]In short, IW/UW/AW ain't about Commies mounting nightly raids on Cavitt's Cove Subdivision to raze, rape, and roil. [/B]

Think outside the box, folks.

Brother, I fear you ask too much. Not because people don't want to, but don't you think this place has evolved? I wasn't here then, but I read a LOT of archived posts. And that makes me believe things have changed. It's no longer "mil-centric" where concepts of the unconventional and irregular were anything but irregular or unconventional. Things have changed.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Todd.K]

How many people here even consider IW/AW /UW as a factor here in the red, white and blue? The posters here who have abundantly said "aww ANTIFA etc. aren't a bona fide problem.

Isn't that all the more reason to believe they won't attack and HOLD areas of the burbs?

To the OP's question I don't see them able to disrupt the suburbs long enough to need to bug out, or so completely that you couldn't bug out. If you live downtown it would be a biger concern.

[RobertTheTexan]

Isn't that all the more reason to believe they won't attack and HOLD areas of the burbs?

To the OP's question I don't see them able to disrupt the suburbs long enough to need to bug out, or so completely that you couldn't bug out. If you live downtown it would be a biger concern.

Personally I don't view ANTIFA as the only hinge pin for collapse, pandemonium whatever bad label we want to give it. I see them as the writing on the wall, part of the impetus. It's not just ANTIFA I see as the threat, I see them as a facet. I'm concerned about what ANTIFA gives birth to, energy to, inspiration to more than I am the organization itself. That's the unconventional to me. That's the irregular to me. The Stuff I can't yet see, but I certainly can see the potential of. If you base your decision to plan and prepare based solely on what you see is and not what can be then I personally believe you are already behind the power curve. I'm a former Intel guy (Military not tech) and if we stopped at "current state" and did not provide threat analysis on "future state" then we were ineffective at our job. Worthless. I see threats as a civilian the same way. Whether in a shifty part of NE metropolitan area, or considering the future of my country/AO.

If we base everything solely on what we currently see, well that is the exact same thing. Ineffective analysis.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Moose-Knuckle]

I was a little shocked when I posted about ANTIFA about a year ago now (IIRC) in the GD forum and most members here had never heard of them before. Prior to Trump's defeat of Hillary I had shared a video of a Berkeley public school teacher and ANTFIA chapter leader who led an assault on a couple of skin heads who had legally obtained a permit to peacefully assemble outside the state capital.

Even here, there were more than a few posts about "well it's only Nazis getting assaulted so who cares". People don't see the BIG picture at play. Then we witnessed normal Americans (read that non-Nazis) getting pummelled at Trump campaign rallies by the same black bloc agitators throughout 2016. So far this year they turn up at any non-leftist political rally whether it be White supremacist or not. Their tactics are that of the Sturmabteilung.

The thing is ANTIFA is global, it's not just an American lefty thing.

How long till we see just a few of these black bloc'ers graduate to the big league? A handful can be trained (if not already) by their jihadists comrades to conduct Mumbai / Nairobi style attacks on soft targets.



The reds and jihadists have a history going back to at least the 70's where they would buy arms and train in places like Libya together.




As far as other threats relating to natural disasters and wealthy neighborhoods this made the rounds a few days ago, not sure if legit (I found it on social media) but more than a few accounts of looting in Houston . . .

[SteveS]

Agree 100%. However, living in northern UT means the demographics are highly against ATIFA and BLM. Our biggest threat is earthquakes. However, all family is back east and we travel frequently so PERSEC acclimatizes dependent upon location. Went to a HS that was 14% white and had my ghetto pass since 12 so growing up that way does help in certain environments and how to deal with them. Everyone, for everyday life, should already have a rational line of thinking developed for when it is time to go hands on, guns on, or beat feet. This can be extrapolated to SHTF situations. However, the intensity, degree, or rapidity when the time for action comes may change. If the SHTF and life as we know it is going to be disrupted for a few days, weeks, months, or years it would affect one's actions. As in, how one would act would change dependent upon length of the S hitting TF.

If it is the world is changing forever and it will be a while(yrs.) before it even begins to start becoming stable, then how one acts is totally different than if the duration is days, weeks, or months.

Are people armed in Utah as compared to the trad states [California,New York etc]

[pinzgauer]

Isn't that all the more reason to believe they won't attack and HOLD areas of the burbs?

To the OP's question I don't see them able to disrupt the suburbs long enough to need to bug out, or so completely that you couldn't bug out. If you live downtown it would be a biger concern.

That's where I'm at... All the IW, think bigger, KLA stuff is interesting, but pretty far afield from Doc's original question:

As things get more stupid with groups like ANTIFA and BLM have any of you changed your plans or routines based on this threat? I have been re-looking at my short term plans but not so much my long terms ones. If these people start some real SH#$ will I be able to travel at all? Like I said my long term plans are set and do not need to change because of the current situation. What I am thinking about are my short term plans.

ANTIFA, BAMN, BLM to me are less immediate risks to travel & everyday life as they largely require/seek certain conditions.

Where your random knife/axe/truck lone wolf attack is hard to predict and manage around. Both are unlikely.

I still boat & hike even though both those activities put me at greater risk for lightning. But it's a small risk, and pretty much out of my control outside of some common sense things.

In the same way, recently travelled in Europe smack in the areas the lone wolf stuff happens (which is largely anywhere there is population concentrations)

Transient/temporary​ risk was small statistically. But living there? Different situation entirely.

Otherwise, not seeing the JOC IW connection to the original question and discussion.

[pinzgauer]

Cough, Kosovo Liberation Army, Cough...

Doc needs no introduction to this, but I'll just leave it here for everyone else.

From the JOC IW:

"Since irregular warfare is a contest for legitimacy and influence over the relevant populations, the populations carry particular weight as both the battleground and object of the conflict. Stealthy adversaries hide among the population, using it as a shield and willing or unwilling helper. These adversaries against unpopular, abusive, or corrupt governments to gain popular support and legitimacy, such as in an insurgency. At other times, the “relevant” population these adversaries are trying to influence could be very particular government or security apparatus officials, commercial activities and businesses, or even groups outside of the host nation and not the general public, as seen with irregular adversaries who have infrastructure links to diasporas and criminal enterprises. These adversaries target civilians to intimidate and coerce them, and expose the inability of the state to provide protection. Given the psychological and political dimensions of the contest, perceptions are as important as any physical reality of the battlefield. Adept adversaries plan their actions around sophisticated communications strategies enabled by the globalization of information and technology. In this age of instant communication, actors have become proficient at crafting their accounts of events into a compelling story or narrative. The intent of this narrative is to influence not only the local population but the global community as well. The battle of the narrative, as this struggle for influence has been called, is waged primarily through critical elements of the population who have formal or informal power or standing to sway the sentiments or induce the compliance of the general population."

In short, IW/UW/AW ain't about Commies mounting nightly raids on Cavitt's Cove Subdivision to raze, rape, and roil.

Think outside the box, folks.

So your premise is somehow the new threat is that these groups will become the American Taliban? Or maybe the hybrid media/Bernie/Hillary/academians?

Because that's what that position paper is about, specifically an Afghan type situation where armed groups are contending with the legit govt in a non-traditional military approach. (And yes, hiding in the population, but that's only one of the criteria. As is using internet and it her new media, I'll grant you) And the US military is having to help a host nation deal with it. Some aspects could certainly apply domestically.

Just trying to understand your premise...

I certainly agree that ANTIFA/BAMN/BLM/whoever believe they are using IW concepts and have the goal of disrupting the current govt.

My question is more pragmatic: how exactly do they morph into the KLA and become the risk you alluded to? KLA leveraged religion with a very clear, old, and festering split in the population. As did the IRA. So had much larger support bases.

Is that where we think this is headed?

[docsherm]

I think that the biggest threat that BLM/ Antifa produces is background noise. They cause a bunch of noise and distract from the real threat. It is a shell game. The real threats, ISIS or who ever, plans something under the cover of a "counter-protest". They can blend in and become the pawns of the real threats. They can even become more collateral damage to get even more BLM/ Antifa out and give them more cover. This is how an insurgency can get bad real quick. Not knowing who the real threat is is the most dangerous part and by the time that everyone figures out that the real power behind these thing is group XXXX it will be too late.