State of the Industry; An Open Discussion.

[NickB]

The industry geared up for and got used to an artificial market based on panic and fear. Everyone spent years buying everything they could afford or get the credit to cover. Trump got elected. No more fear and panic.

The gun industry needs to settle back into normalcy. Any company that did not have a contingency plan for if trump won is a dumbass.

The industry will naturally purge itself of companies that are out of touch with the buying market, make product that is not a good value, and that are run poorly.

What we will be left with is the better all around companies. Like KAC, be like KAC. Knights did not ramp up production to suit a false market, KAC is smart. KAC developed new and innovative features and makes a quality product. KAC SR15 rifles, while expensive are a great VALUE.

KAC basically did the opposite of Daniel Defense. Don't be like Daniel Defense, Daniel Defense is dumb.

KAC is well positioned to become a player in the commercial market if they can execute on a sales/marketing strategy. Historically speaking, that has been a struggle for the company, or at least not a priority. They have some of the most innovative designs and intellectual property in the industry, much of which is completely un-utilized. I have an enormous amount of respect for that company and what they have done for the American warfighter, much of which will never see the public light of day. Their decision to exhibit at the NRA Annual Meeting this year shows me they are finally ready to service the civilian market, which is great news for all of us.

[NickB]

Of course, that's not helped by the regulatory insanity of ITAR/EAR, where the bureaucratic monkey****ers have even classed a goddamn TEE SHIRT as "Export Arms Restriction"... seriously, look at Magpul's, all of which are so noted. I swear the human garbage at State and Commerce would automatically classify "Magpul Tactical TP" similarly just because of the company making it...

The language on Magpul's site is technically correct, but slightly confusing - their t-shirts are regulated by the Export Administration Regulations, but so is all apparel - there is no special restriction on their shirts vs. those made by American Apparel.

[JC5188]

So I see a lot of speculation. Does anybody REALLY know the actual rifles sold by manufacturer? The number of employees? Most popular sku of each?

I keep hearing terms like “AR” market. What does that mean? ARs only? All parts? Uppers? Complete lowers?

How much of each is made by each company either by count or percentage?

Does anybody have any resource to find this? I’ve tried.

[Shooterman017]

I think the term value has been redefined as related to the AR market has been redefined by Colt, BCM, Sionics, Aero, and S&W over the last 18-24 months....Value used to mean "cheap"....prevalence of the platform has also increased awareness and the market has adjusted the notion of "value".

Agreed on the notion of what value is on this market is now. Colt and the OEM/6920/Trooper. BCM and their LPK which includes a Gunfighter grip and PNT trigger. ALG and their EMR handguards. The value and quality you get from products like these examples give little reason to consider lowest common denominator brands, or intermediately-priced complete offerings...be it regarding price or quality, at least in my opinion. If I need another lower and upper built, the go to list I use now is very specific and tends to be from a select few manufacturers, because the quality offered for the price is an unmatched value. I don't think I own anything that can be pulled right out of a manufacturers lineup...complete guns, and uppers alike.

ETA: That is to say I would prefer having complete rifles from BCM, Daniel Defense, Colt, Knight's for the sake of owning samples from those companies...but the rifles I have in my collection now I built with very particular parts lists, to include approximations of clone rifles.

There is a decent size commercial market in parts of Europe, to include Poland and Czech Republic, and it is possible to legally export AR15-style rifles to civilian customers if you don't mind a little red tape and a slight premium on price. Many small to mid-size gun companies choose not to export directly for a variety of reasons, and instead use intermediaries like Regulus Global, who specialize in navigating State Department export requirements and have relationships with distributors and end users abroad. Some companies specialize in certain channels (MIL, LE, commercial), and others, like Regulus, service all of the above.

Thank you for expanding on this.

[26 Inf]

So I see a lot of speculation. Does anybody REALLY know the actual rifles sold by manufacturer? The number of employees? Most popular sku of each?

I keep hearing terms like “AR” market. What does that mean? ARs only? All parts? Uppers? Complete lowers?

How much of each is made by each company either by count or percentage?

Does anybody have any resource to find this? I’ve tried.

I belong to NSSF, but I don't want to pay a couple hundred to purchase a download of the data. Some data on production can be gleaned from BATFE.

It surprises you, some of the 'heavy hitters' that everyone gives kudos to have a small market share based on numbers produced.

I want to stress these are produced, not necessarily sold, the data is 2015, 2016 is not yet totally available. I'm interested to see the 2016 numbers, they would more actually reflect how election worries may have impacted production numbers.

https://www.atf.gov/resource-center/...final/download

Rifles Manufactured:

AERO.........................................1,118
AUSTIN PRECISION (dba LaRue)...1,738
BCM.........................................11,512
CATS ARMS LLC (dba Sionics).........144
COLT........................................79,565 *
DANIEL DEFENSE......................24,721
DEL-TON..................................28,443
FN...........................................11,483 *
KNIGHTS...................................2,009
NOVESKE..................................1,074
PSA.........................................12,255
ROCK RIVER.............................14,406
SPIKES.....................................??????
STAG.................................... ..11,816
TROY..................................... ...2,969
WINDHAM................................34,824

*unknown if civilian sales only, or combined civilian and .mil

MISC FIREARMS (RECEIVERS ?)

AERO......................................51,592
PSA........................................90,601

This section surprised me.

In view of keeping folks employed, which isn't necessarily a primary concern for most of us, it seems a couple of the lower tier manufacturers do a pretty good job, if you look at their production numbers.

[TMS951]

MISC FIREARMS (RECEIVERS ?)

AERO......................................51,592
PSA........................................90,601

This section surprised me.

Interesting for sure, I have seen a few times that Aero makes those PSA receivers. I wonder if thats still true, if so Aero sure turns out a ton of receivers.

[AKDoug]

More anecdotal evidence. I am the chair for a local Friends of NRA committee. We have raffles and banquets to raise money to support the shooting sports. Last year, prior to the election I made a ton of cash raffling off various AR's. The first raffle of this year I barely broke even with a raffle for an AR. I switched it up to bolt guns and defensive handguns and ticket sales went back to normal levels. I talk to hundreds of gun owners while selling these tickets and it is really common to hear folks say "I already have an AR, why do I need more?", but they are perfectly happy stockpiling bolt guns. We, AR-15 enthusiasts, are a very small segment of the firearms market.

[26 Inf]

Interesting for sure, I have seen a few times that Aero makes those PSA receivers. I wonder if thats still true, if so Aero sure turns out a ton of receivers.

If you scroll through the misc. firearms section there are several manufacturers such as B&R Machine, Ludlow, MA, and CPP-Steel Treaters, Oriskany, NY who apparently make receivers for something and someone.

[Warp]

Might want to hold on to it. Many foolishly believe Trump wouldnt sell us out in the form of another AWB.

There will not be a federal AWB any time soon


If a guy was considering letting go of an AR type rifle right now to make budget/room for something else, do it I'd say.

[Doc Safari]

There will not be a federal AWB any time soon


If a guy was considering letting go of an AR type rifle right now to make budget/room for something else, do it I'd say.

I spoke to my favorite dealer a few days ago. This guy knows his stuff because he buys and sells all the time and has a long history with the auction sites like GunBroker, etc.

I asked about selling one of my AR's and he pretty much indicated I wouldn't even get what I paid for it. He even showed me some recent completed auctions where the bids were kind of low.

He advised me to wait.