How Close We Really Are to Gun Confiscation

[SteyrAUG]

I can see a permanent Clinton style ban coming to pass, I don't see how they could pull off any confiscation in the next two generations without LOTS of blood being spilled.

They thought Ruby Ridge was bad, that was ONE family. They thought WACO was a disaster, that was a SINGLE religious compound. Confiscation attempts will legitimize every fringe element that ever camped outside of a wild life center and bring them to Defcon 1.

There are a bunch of "nothing to lose" guys in marpat kilts who have been talking about how this is coming. Some of them will only go as far as open carry photo ops at Chipolte for facebook, but some of them will actually start shooting and it won't take very many to cause lots of problems.

A church group, who had gun show quality training, repelled an ATF raid. I don't think they can go down that same road with everyone in the US who has an AR-15. I can't think of an enforcement agency that even wants to, at least not with their own people.

[fledge]

They won’t need this scenario. The states are creeping in on this already. One day the state’s will vote to ratify the constitution.

Everywhere Dems have power in the states they are pushing bans. If we cannot expose them well enough to stir the urban centers to awaken, they will continue the march.

[RetroRevolver77]

I think another ban would kick things off.

[FromMyColdDeadHand]

They won’t need this scenario. The states are creeping in on this already. One day the state’s will vote to ratify the constitution.

Everywhere Dems have power in the states they are pushing bans. If we cannot expose them well enough to stir the urban centers to awaken, they will continue the march.

The FED level is a false front, like facing off against the maginot line. The real war is at the state level.

There may well be a time when we look at Australia and wish we had it that good...

We need the ATF to decree that the semi-auto, box fed rifles are 'in common usage'.

Get a on of the Federal Circuit to take that and say that banning them is unconstitutional.

You then have split circuits and SCOTUS will step in.

If you have the 'in common usage', even Kennedy will come along.

You need the SCOTUS to rule that there is a right to semi-auto, box fed guns and standard cap magazines.

The question then is how much regulation. From none to some kind of NFA. Frankly, once you get MSRs ownership as 'settled law', then everything else is arranging the deck chairs.

The pivot point is the ATF and 'in common usage'.


That and cutting off RBH from her vampire blood supply.

[LoboTBL]

As of 2017 the combined manpower of the U.S. Military is hovering a bit over 2 and a quarter million counting reserve components. There are a bit over 1.1 million sworn law enforcement nationwide.

In 2017, nearly 37 million hunting licenses were issued nationwide. That's 37 million gun owners who think they might go hunting. I think it's a conservative estimate that there at least as many gun owners that do not hunt at all. That's 84 million and that is a conservative estimate. Granted, a large percentage of that number are fudds and have nothing more than a few shotguns and a lever gun or bolt action or two. But it leaves a huge number of gun owners who are somewhere between accepting "reasonable" gun control measures and #NOFI.

Keep in mind that a majority of our military and law enforcement are not going to support or engage in confiscating weapons from U.S. citizens who have never been charged with a transgression more serious than a speeding ticket. I actually believe that if the order for confiscation to begin was given anytime in the immediate future, it would cause a serious fracturing of the military command structure. I know for a fact there are plenty of LEOs out there who would whip their badge at their chief's head and be out the door warning family, friends and neighbors what's about to go down before the chief got back up from whatever cover he dove under. Sure the American military is a force to be reckoned with, but the mighty Navy isn't going to be much use and neither will the Air Force. That leaves the Marine Corps and the Army or what's left of it and they will be spread pretty thin. So who is going to do all the confiscating?

The only way we will ever be disarmed in the foreseeable future is if we lose our will and allow ourselves to be.

I read an essay a few years ago that was a fictional account about a nationwide confiscation effort of privately owned firearms and it did not paint a pretty picture at all. In the end it was decided what a misguided idea it had been to turn law abiding citizens who had always followed the rules into felons who felt betrayed by the government they had trusted.

[elephant]

confiscation is not a practical thing. The feds don't want another Ruby Ridge or Waco stand off. There is no active force or measure to confiscate firearms. You cant tie up all our law enforcement and have them going door to door to confiscate guns, that could likely take many many years. It would take many years to collect 20 years of form 4473's to build a database. Digitize them, distribute and put together a file for each buyer and the firearms associated with said buyer. The feds have proof that you bought a gun, but no proof that you currently possess a gun. Everyone would simply say " I sold that a few years ago to a guy at a gun show for cash". Making assault weapons or 90% of current firearms illegal to own, sell, transfer or possess sounds likely but that's about as far as it would go. We simply just don't have the man power or energy to collect 300,000,000 firearms with a big percentage of which have been sold, resold, traded and sold again with on paper trail. I'm sure there are a lot of people who have "decoy" guns to turn over on that day to make it look as though they were being compliant. Confiscation will only account for maybe 5-8% of the total firearms in America. Gun owners will turn this into a witch hunt.

[LoboTBL]

SCOTUS has previously ruled in U.S. vs Miller, in 1939, that it is in fact militia type (militarily useful) small arms that are specifically protected by the 2nd Amendment. It was the main point that brought about the ruling that upheld the constitutionality of the NFA of 1934 because the U.S. attorney made the claim that a short barreled shotgun had no milita purpose and was not in use by the military.

[FromMyColdDeadHand]

Progressives are all about virtue signalling that they are with the "Redneck Cleansing" of America. That is why they talk about bans of common firearms when they haven't done the needed steps of registration and then the compartmentalization (50cals, then NFA items, then ARs.....). They go for the whole enchilada because they actually really don't care about the end product. That's why they do bans with grandfather clauses. They are lazy. Make weak laws that are hard to enforce and bite people at random- while they get to wallow in their 'we did something party'.

It is no simpler than looking at how they go for ARs when most people are killed with hand guns. Duh. It's about the symbolism.

Still hurts, but if they were smart, they'd be boiling the frog, not expecting the lobster to throw it self in the boiling pot.

This is all semantics. The AI and robots will be the real threat to democracy and civil rights. This is all just foreplay.

[Honu]

Never thought I would be stopped at road blocks and be asked to see id and asked citizenship either

Never thought I could get sued for doing biz with folks I do not agree on

Never thought when my 8 year old daughter is in the girls room a man can go in and I can get in trouble if I stop him

Never thought I can get in trouble for free speech

So so so many more freedoms I would see gone

Maybe it’s just being older I had more to loose and bet when some are older they will experience the same thing

[BoringGuy45]

The one thing that holds back a full scale confiscation is that the people who the gun grabbers would send to do their dirty work are usually pro-2nd Amendment. And, they have to, at least to some extent, know this. Even in the most notorious dictatorships of the past hundred years, it was radical members of the ruling party's paramilitary that carried out most of the dirty work, rather than the pre-regime military and/or police. While I'd say the youth of this country is as ripe as it's ever been to be armed and organized into a leftist paramilitary that would be willing and eager to kick down doors for people's guns, it's not there yet.