Pre-incident indicators of violent, civilian events

[doitlive]

Mike,

I would like to discuss pre-incident indicators of violent, civilian events in order to identify factors that differentiate potentially violent events that are unlikely to escalate to severe levels from events that quickly evolve into critical, life or death encounters. Experience and familiarity with violence play a huge role in correctly differentiating these two scenarios and early recognition of a life or death situation will greatly increase one's probability of survival. The problem is that civilians, unlike LEOs or deployed military, do not get much exposure to violence and are therefore prone to over or under react to potential dangers.

I've read Gavin De Becker's book, "Gift of Fear," and he does a good job addressing this topic, but your background is different from his and I'm sure we would all benefit from hearing your thoughts on obvious red flags that would get your attention during a potentially violent situation.

Thank you for contributing to this forum and for everything you've done throughout your years of service to the USA.

[MP01]

That'll be more than a one paragraph answer so stand by.

[MP01]

Again sorry for the delay.
I have read Gift of Fear and consider it required reading for everyone who wants to learn what some of us have learned on the streets of this and other countries. I have also read Just 2 Seconds and that is aimed more at the professional security or military crowd but still enlightening.
There have been many incidents I have experienced that validated what I call Professional vigilance” the components of which are situational awareness and the "jumpmaster theory". For those that were not JM's in the military here is a real quick explanation: when you are first learning to inspect parachutists they are all what is called "clean" meaning no discrepancies in the material or donning of their equipment. That is done so you are burning the image of what "right" looks like so everything “wrong” jumps out at you.
Now take that concept and integrate awareness with it and they have been the principles I have used to ensure I am not caught off-guard. I call it “professional vigilance.” The single most egregious violation of personal safety protocols is a complete lack of awareness. Most people victimized “never see it coming” because they are not “looking out for it.”
May 2000 in Bangkok Thailand I was walking with my wife (attractive Redhead in Asia) down a street while out shopping. As we walked everyone was scurrying around as they do in cities except for a man standing perfectly still leaning against a light post…odd. As we made eye contact he looked away and straight across at another guy doing the same in a more concealed position. I grabbed my wife’s arm and paused for a second, looked at the guy and shook my head “no” then the same to the second. They both realized I knew who and generally what they were contemplating. The first walked away across the street followed by the other and we continued on. Without overall awareness of what “right’ looked like I would have “never seen it coming.”
March 2004 Balad Iraq while on a PSD move as we entered the town proper I see a man standing still while everyone is moving around in a market area. As we rounded a bend in the road I look at him and he seems surprised to see our vehicle. We look at each other and then his head snaps 90 degrees to the right. I follow the look and there is a man crouched behind a car looking straight at me. I raised my rifle and he looks like he sets something down, turns and walks away from the vehicle never looking back. Again, awareness saved the day I am certain. We had a detail ambushed there several days later.
Those are just two of many events I have experienced. One was on a vacation where most folks generally would not have been so vigilant and the other conducting PSD in a combat environment where it is a requirement. The connection is vigilance and awareness. Look around ALL THE TIME. Not in paranoia but just take it all in. Learn your environment and it will tell you when something is wrong or about to go wrong.
• Why are there people standing still in places that don’t make sense?
• Why are people looking at you, then away either at someone else or immediately back to you?
• How does the tempo of the environment change? (You IZ/AFG guys and city cops know what I mean, when there are no women and kids on the street, or they are getting them off the street you know it’s coming.)

You can call it “street sense”, “the gift of fear” or “professional vigilance” but it’s all the same thing. If you learn what “right” looks like and are aware of your environment it will send signals when something is “wrong.”