What Will Kill In A Long Term Disaster? (~1 Year)

[pinzgauer]

Major metro areas in the SE- 3-5 days worth of fuel on hand, assuming they still have power to pump it. I've seen them run out twice in the last 10-15 years.

We still have grocery store runs every ice/snow storm. Because people know deliveries often will stop, and the stores run out even if they could get to the stores, which most cannot. (in an ice storm, anyway)

[chuckman]

Major metro areas in the SE- 3-5 days worth of fuel on hand, assuming they still have power to pump it. I've seen them run out twice in the last 10-15 years.

We still have grocery store runs every ice/snow storm. Because people know deliveries often will stop, and the stores run out even if they could get to the stores, which most cannot. (in an ice storm, anyway)

This little pipeline issue a few weeks ago closed down gas stations in central NC. Some of the independents are still out of gas. The majors will have a delivery, be out that night, be out for a couple days before the next delivery.

Once people "eat down the house" and understand that the stores have no food, real panic will ensue. Nothing like being hungry. So then, one of three things will happen: 1) they die off 2) they kill for food 3) they steal (well, a 4th is kill AND steal). I would venture to guess that since most people lack the skills for numbers 2 and 3, they will be the targets for those who do possess the skills.

[Arik]

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This is a pic of the bread aisle at my local Wal-Mart after a winter storm hit our area. They sell out of bread, lunch meat, frozen pizzas, TV dinners, boxed cereals, milk, etc. everytime there is a winter storm here which usually last up to three or four days. Some years we get multiple winter storms through out the season.



The vast majority of American households only have enough food in their pantry/fridge for about one week. That includes eating out several times and or having a "pizza night". As mentioned above by someone grocery stores have on hand three days worth of food during NORMAL conditions. This is beefed up for events like Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Never understood that. The only thing I get before a snow storm is extra beer. I can't understand how people have only enough food for a week. I don't prep but I probably have at least 6 months worth of food if I'm by myself. I have 2 fridges and a freezer full of food. When something is on sale I buy extra. Ill eat it anyway so why not buy cheaper.

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[HCrum87hc]

I don't think that it would happen for me within a year, but my wife and I would likely die from existing diseases eventually, with her likely happening within 6 months. She's a type 1 diabetic, and this kind of stuff scares me to death. We can only stockpile so much insulin, depending on how much insurance will cover, and it has to stay cold long term. The scene from One Second After really hit home with me.

I have Crohn's Disease, which can be fatal if not treated due to complications such as bowel blockages or ruptures. Thankfully, I had surgery back in July to remove the diseased section of my intestines, but I still need to stay on meds in an attempt to keep the disease at bay. Unfortunately, odds are it will return eventually regardless of the meds I'm on. Thankfully, at this point in time, I'd probably be fine within a year, but if I were in the shape I was in before surgery, it would have been ugly without meds. Think eating nothing but liquids and even then your body isn't able to absorb most of the nutrients.

My main medication also has to be refrigerated. It can be at room temperature for up to 2 weeks, but after that it's supposedly bad. I probably have three months worth in the fridge right now. I'm also on a pill, but it would likely keep me in check by itself for a while if I were able to get a long term supply.

We have enough food and water to sustain us for at least a month. In terms of power loss, it's amazing what basic camping/boy scout skills will do for you.

[chuckman]

Never understood that. The only thing I get before a snow storm is extra beer. I can't understand how people have only enough food for a week. I don't prep but I probably have at least 6 months worth of food if I'm by myself. I have 2 fridges and a freezer full of food. When something is on sale I buy extra. Ill eat it anyway so why not buy cheaper.

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Have you been to Europe? Much of Europe shop day-to-day for the perishables. If something like described happened there, they would really be screwed.

[rkba01]

Water is number one for survival. Food is nice and good for energy, moral, and such, but not immediately critical. Water is critical! One day without water and people will maim for water, two days and people will kill for water, three days and the water-less are dead or dying.

Drinking-water needs to be free of pathogens or you severely complicate an already complicated situation. It is critical to have redundant and reliable water supplies on hand and the means to defend it. Also have several ways to disinfect it, chemically (e.g. bleach/iodine) and physically (e.g. filtration/cooking). Containers to store and move water with is also critical. Don't forget about the weakest link within your family, the weakest must be able to access and transport some of the available water in case he/she is the only survivor.

[Arik]

Have you been to Europe? Much of Europe shop day-to-day for the perishables. If something like described happened there, they would really be screwed.

Actually yes. That's where I'm from and that's how we used to shop. It carried over to here and I got it from my parents

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[Averageman]

We've left out pregnancy, or perhaps to be correct, childbirth.

[Evel Baldgui]

Your condescension is unwarranted. It is intended as a thought exercise anyway, and as a distraction from the constant political threads. I don't think this would actually happen overnight.

ETA: While some may find this thought experiment "laughable" or "disdainful", I think it can pay dividends in introspective value and finding where our lives could use a dose of extra robustness. Even if the scenario itself is extremely improbable, a degree of self-reliance is healthy, don't you think?

Did not mean to appear condescending, apologies....
I find these 'exercises' entertaining. I divide my time between New England, where I have encountered blizzards, ice storms, etc. and South Florida where I have enjoyed hurricanes and minor flooding and one time a wee bit of social unrest. All good times, adapted to the fun and a week or so later out fishing in my kayak or cross county skiing depending on where I happen to be!

[chuckman]

Actually yes. That's where I'm from and that's how we used to shop. It carried over to here and I got it from my parents

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I brought it up only to show that people who shop day-to-day will be in a lot more dire straits than the people who buy for a week or two at a time. I love buying fresh at the local corner, but there's something to be said for storing a few weeks' worth of food.