View Full Version : Intentions of China's Military Build-up?
AZ-Renegade
09-04-12, 14:25
Started to post this in another thread, but decided to put it in its own...
There has been much speculation of China's buildup of their military, specifically that they may be gearing up for a shooting war with us in the near future.
People have pointed to China's desire to "re-take" Taiwan and to become the dominate power of the south pacific. What does China gain in achieving these goals and is it worth the risk of a war with the U.S.? I believe they would only try this kind of power play if they believed we would be unwilling to commit to war.
Now, from what little I know, China has a good deal of natural resources, but for its size and population and possible global aspirations, do they have enough?
Is it possible that China's more immediate motives would be to secure additional resources? Could their military build-up be intended to forcibly take Siberia from Russia for its oil, timber and mineral resources?
This scenario was used in Tom Clancy's "The Bear and the Dragon", but it always struck me as a realistic one.
I would like to hear from folks more versed than I in global matters whether or not this could be a likely scenario. I just don't see what China would gain by going to war with one of its biggest trade partners at this time.
Discuss.
"Ignore the rhetoric, China won't attack Taiwan"
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FB11Ad06.html
http://www.bobhenneman.info/museum5.JPG
Some people simply enjoy fantasy more than reality. There is almost zero chance of China waging war with the West. It would destroy all that they have worked so hard to build in the last 20-30 years.
Would they like to have Taiwan? Sure they would, but they are not willing to bet their very existence on it. Nowhere near enough upside compared to the huge downside...
Their new fleet of personnel and equipment carriers scare the hell out of me though...:rolleyes:
http://i156.photobucket.com/albums/t5/d90king/bohai_cuizhu.jpg
Personally, I think it has more to do with regional power projection and security than offensive capability. Regional hegemony is much more likely than global dominance. I've said for 20 years that you can worry about China militarily, when they start wholesale production of cargo aircraft, troop transports and maritime pre-positioning ships. Till then, they want to be left to their own devices, which we may never fully understand.
As for their overpopulation, they have a myriad of internal mechanisms with which to manage that issue. No need to start a global shooting war to thin their own herd.
China wants to expand to what they believe are their traditional borders, including the whole South China Sea. It's unlikely that they will choose war.
However they are unstable internally and starting with Deng have encouraged nationalism as a unifying force. China is now one of the most nationalist nations on earth. The risk is that the mob will demand blood for some slight or that the regime will cause a foreign crisis to unify the public in the face of some internal fracture.
why do something with the military when they can do it financially and with market control
they can work there way to the top or quite close then start to play games with production etc..
considering Chinas past they are in it for the long run and not the short quick victory IMHO they will be fine if they put out a 100 year plan and chip away at it
Maybe they dont like the Global elite scum that want their country too...
VooDoo6Actual
09-04-12, 15:58
China is clearly ramping up their military capabilities. A lot of options on the table w/ no certitude other than it's a struggle for resources on the planet w/ attrition.
Their on the cusp of their Military horizon approx. 4-6 years from now if they can make it & survive the food, resources, economic, population, human rights issues etc al ongoing.
China is looking for sustainence, containment & control while surviving (like all Nations are) the resource crunch we are coming into.
Considering that our politicians will NEVER fire on a Chinese vessel, how much of a navy or air force do they need to dominate and intimidate their neighbors? I think they will try to gain control of the Spratley Islands and other South China Sea "disputed" islands by wearing opponents down diplomatically and economically. A decent size military makes those avenues quietly more forceful and is the means to hold any opportunistic encroachment.
Doesn't hurt the intimidation factor on smaller countries to show now and then they can easily penetrate US carrier task force shield during exercises.
A country's influence in the modern world economy is protected by their military. As American and EU influence declines, China's is rising to fill that vacuum. Because we've shifted our resources toward the ME, our Asian influence has taken an especially hard hit. China stands poised to be the dominant economic and cultural power in Asia in the coming years (if not already). They will need a strong military with force projection ability to protect that influence just like we have enjoyed over the past 70 years since the end of WWII.
Just think, the next time a ME crisis develops that destablizes the region (i.e. oil prices), our carrier groups will arrive to find twice as many Chinese carriers already parked in the Persian Gulf :eek:.
crusader377
09-04-12, 18:26
I don't think we should be too worried about the increase in Chinese defense spending for a couple of reasons.
First, there is no evidence that they are developing expeditionary warfare capability. It seems like there spending is more to develop regional capabilities. China at best still only spends a quarter of what the U.S. spends on defense. It is true that China is increasing the capability of their military but you have to remember that during the 1800s and 1900s China was a very weak country despite its large size and population. I think China is restoring its capability to a reasonable level given its size and economy. They are still spending a far lower percentage of their GNP on defense compared to the United States.
Second, culturally China has never been an expansionist power. For much of the history of civilization, China was the largest and wealthiest civilization yet they never expanded much beyond the borders of China. I don't think conquest and militarism is as much in the Chinese DNA is it is in the west.
I know there is some concern of China's ability to deny the U.S. Navy's ability to operate in the South China sea. That is probably going to happen regardless due to the relatively low cost of highly capable anti-ship missiles and IMO it would not be the end of the world if we could no longer park a carrier group 200-300 miles off China.
Moose-Knuckle
09-05-12, 03:17
Their intent = self preservation.
China is a REGIONAL power and will remain so unless the West goads the Dragon into a large shooting war. They are not out to "confront the US everywhere". They appear to. E "gearing up" for a direct confrontation IN THEIR REGION OF THE WORLD - EURASIA.
They also need some projection to defend oil agreements in non-aligned nations that the West (led by US) have been shelling and toppling both in North Africa and the Levant.
Now go read The Grand Chessboard and study the ideology of Leo Strauss.
When the Chinese publicly state plans to build and operate 12 CVNs, each with a hangar deck full of 75+ stealth 5th gen fighter/bombers, I'll be worried.
What they have right now, and what they want for the near future, doesn't bother me. Russia is far more formidable militarily. And even they aren't currently anything worth getting paranoid over.
They have the numbers, but we have the tech.
When the Chinese publicly state plans to build and operate 12 CVNs, each with a hangar deck full of 75+ stealth 5th gen fighter/bombers, I'll be worried.
What they have right now, and what they want for the near future, doesn't bother me. Russia is far more formidable militarily. And even they aren't currently anything worth getting paranoid over.
They have the numbers, but we have the tech.
Define "paranoia".
If u mean that IFF we'd mind our business in Eurasia and the Levant by abandoning the genocidal position posited by MacKinder I agree.
To assume either could not make I and I disappear is foolhardy AT BEST.
Dirk Williams
09-05-12, 10:00
We will be in a shooting war with china in our life times.
We will re establish our deep water ports in the PI we will start to rebuild our wespac navy.
Wasn't to many years ago they seized an EP-3 flown by either VQ-1 or VQ-2 out of Wa state while it was on routine patrol like forward deployed back to Guam or Japan.
Rumor has it from some interesting sources that that odd single missile fired off of NAS San Diego a few years ago was in fact a Chinese sub sending a message.
China and Russia have now probed our west coast capabilitys in Alaska and off of Washington State with their long range bombers which are nuke capable.
Our response was at best laughable.
We have what they don't. The ability to feed the world.
DW
Littlelebowski
09-05-12, 10:12
We will be in a shooting war with china in our life times.
We will re establish our deep water ports in the PI we will start to rebuild our wespac navy.
Wasn't to many years ago they seized an EP-3 flown by either VQ-1 or VQ-2 out of Wa state while it was on routine patrol like forward deployed back to Guam or Japan.
Rumor has it from some interesting sources that that odd single missile fired off of NAS San Diego a few years ago was in fact a Chinese sub sending a message.
China and Russia have now probed our west coast capabilitys in Alaska and off of Washington State with their long range bombers which are nuke capable.
Our response was at best laughable.
We have what they don't. The ability to feed the world.
DW
How on earth do you rationalize "routine patrol?" Do you not know what the intent of said patrol and what the mission of the EP-3 is?
It never fails to amaze me how paranoid and war hungry some people are. Send your kids to war with China over a regional conflict then; mine aren't going.
For ****'s sakes people; stop looking for a war. We can't pay for the ones we are in now.
Smedley Butler, anyone?
Dirk Williams
09-05-12, 10:21
As a matter of fact I have a pretty good understanding what the VQ squadrons do. I spent almost 4 years in VQ-2 while in Rota Spain.
Do I want war. No sir. In fact all I really want to do is enjoy my retirement fishing rafting hunting, and enjoying my children and my grand children.
YET I feel a need to prepare like no other time in my life.
War with China or any other country. No thanks.
DW
How on earth do you rationalize "routine patrol?" Do you not know what the intent of said patrol and what the mission of the EP-3 is?
It never fails to amaze me how paranoid and war hungry some people are. Send your kids to war with China over a regional conflict then; mine aren't going.
For ****'s sakes people; stop looking for a war. We can't pay for the ones we are in now.
Smedley Butler, anyone?
People have been taught that preemptive war is the solution to all their problems. I mean thats how we saved our nation from the terrrrrrrists right?
If I were china i'd be gearing up too. Same goes for Iran. Why not? Oh because We (the Usa) said you shouldnt?? lol ya ok....
The Global Elite are coming to a country near you....
Dirk Williams
09-05-12, 10:33
Not sure if most are aware but china spends almost twice what they spend on their military on internal security.
In English it appears that those in charge are far more worried about the Chinese people then outside concerns.
Personally I see China as a paper tiger, I think they will implode. That's what makes them dangerous. Once they implode they will have problems feeding their population. Which will drive their actions.
DW
Littlelebowski
09-05-12, 10:36
As a matter of fact I have a pretty good understanding what the VQ squadrons do. I spent almost 4 years in VQ-2 while in Rota Spain.
Do I want war. No sir. In fact all I really want to do is enjoy my retirement fishing rafting hunting, and enjoying my children and my grand children.
YET I feel a need to prepare like no other time in my life.
War with China or any other country. No thanks.
DW
Works for me.
crusader377
09-05-12, 10:42
Call me a bit cynical, but I think all this talk of the rise of the China's military by all of these so called national security think-tanks is to extend the gravy train for defense contractors since we are winding down Iraq and eventually Afghanistan. They are creating paranoia in order to secure the funding of outdated or useless weapon systems that we can't afford.
Policy makers who are often in bed with the defense industry constantly exaggerate the threat posed by countries like China and I would argue Iran while constantly ignoring the biggest long term threat to America which is out of control spending and the constant devaluation of our currency.
If you look at the hard facts China is not a military threat to the U.S. They spend 1/5 the amount the U.S. spends on defense and in percentage of GNP spend about 1.5% of there GDP on defense which actually less than most European nations spend on defense and far less than what the U.S. spends on defense. 1.5% of GDP on defense is not what anywhere near what a militarized state with expansionist goals spends on their military.
If anything, China is probably the biggest free rider from our military spending in the world today. They enjoy all the benefits of the U.S. military presence throughout the world while contributing nothing to its cost.
China is undergoing the most massive peacetime arms buildup in the history of the human race. They've classified or hidden much of their spending, and once you correct it for purchasing power parity they spend 1/3 to 1/2 what we do. They don't need to match us because they don't want to be a world power they want to be a regional one. They mean to control Asia, preferably without war. If we let them have it there will never be war.
Dirk Williams
09-05-12, 11:29
LOL, your reference to the large army's of contractors in the PI? Interesting observation.
I have a couple of friends who retired in Olongapho, right outside Subic Bay. I chat with my friends often via the net.
" I've been considering wintering in the PI" and am very versed in that area as I was stationed there about a year before going to VQ-2 in Spain.
Anyway I'm told that the old ship yard is occupied by private US contractor company's, along with other sea related company's.
If you have never been there. That place was awesome.
DW
Not sure if most are aware but china spends almost twice what they spend on their military on internal security.
In English it appears that those in charge are far more worried about the Chinese people then outside concerns.
Personally I see China as a paper tiger, I think they will implode. That's what makes them dangerous. Once they implode they will have problems feeding their population. Which will drive their actions.
DW
More directly, when the crowds come back to Tianenmen they are likely to create a war with Taiwan to create national unity.
China's buildup is more about asserting global power for economic gain and less about threatening the West.
Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2
Mabe they are just concerned about invasion by North Korea.
They likely aren't going to nuke so close to home, or even at home if the boarder is swarmed already.
That leaves conventional war and NK is reported to have a LOT of fodder to send forth, just like China taught them to during the hostilities in 1950's: if you can't over tech then overrun.
Why would NK be so bold?
Resources to bolster thier currently ever spiraling downward levels.
Improbable, mabe. Impossible? I wouldn't bet on it.
Dirk Williams
09-05-12, 12:34
So how does a nation such as China assert global domainance without offending a nation like the US. Toes are going to get stepped on. Dicks are going to be measured. When push comes to shove I have no doubt that china will take the first swing.
We have a history of ignoring history and the lessons learned.
DW
crusader377
09-05-12, 12:49
So how does a nation such as China assert global domainance without offending a nation like the US. Toes are going to get stepped on. Dicks are going to be measured. When push comes to shove I have no doubt that china will take the first swing.
We have a history of ignoring history and the lessons learned.
DW
You are forgetting that alot of unnecessary wars were started by dick measuring contests. For example WWI did not need to be fought but all of the major powers went on a dick measuring contest and the result was a whole generation of men in europe was lost.
I don't think there is any likely course of action that China can take that would make going to war with China a sound decision. Even if China wants to invade Taiwan I don't think it is worth sending US kids to die over it.
Dirk Williams
09-05-12, 13:10
Gents nothing would make me happier then being dead ass wrong.
A couple of TELLS.
Within the past year China approached Several country's within the pacific rim. Informed said country's that you are either with Us. Or your against us.
Our Aussie friends our NZ friends all the little island nations. No third option just a simple VAILED threat.
Pick ome the US or China, it's each nations call.
Several on here are on the Jewish nations donkey about corporate espionage. Yet when china ends up with our blood sweat and tears technology nobody says a ****ing word.
When a Chinese gun boat lobs a few shells over the bow of a us flagged ship creating an international incident, it's hidden by the media and by our own govt.
Who the hell do you REALLY think is doing the majority of Internet probing/hacking at the national defense level. Who do you think is probing our Infastructure seeking falts to exploit. .
You know the answer. Total War. Economic, militarily and socially.
The facts are out there like anything else they just need to be interpreted for big picture values/objectives.
DW
BrigandTwoFour
09-05-12, 13:36
I'm surprised nobody has pointed out India. I wouldn't be surprised if China and India started their own version of the Cold War over who is the dominant regional power.
Both are nuclear powers, both have huge populations that can be mobilized for industry and military purposes, both are expanding their space based capabilities.
I think this is the future direction of conflict in the region.
Not sure if most are aware but china spends almost twice what they spend on their military on internal security.
In English it appears that those in charge are far more worried about the Chinese people then outside concerns.
Personally I see China as a paper tiger, I think they will implode. That's what makes them dangerous. Once they implode they will have problems feeding their population. Which will drive their actions.
DW
Nothing a little genocide won't cure. They're just as likely to decimate their own population as they are to do anything else.
A good read on US-China Relations:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/dangerous-crossroads-america-pressures-asean-bloc-to-contain-china/
China only needs to be "contained" if it is trying to expand its borders.
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