View Full Version : Electorial Suicide?
http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/08/electoral_suicide.html
Iowa only went for Bush by 10,059 votes/0.67% in 2004. With 75,000 estimated illegals in the state, their projected vote would probably hand the Democrats a new 21,000 vote margin, meaning a Bush loss. Bush's 2004 margin in New Mexico was 5,988 votes/0.79%. Having 85,000 illegal immigrants, their voting preferences would have likely led to a Bush loss by 17,000 votes. McCain would have undoubtedly lost Missouri -- with its 55,000 illegals -- in 2008 if illegal aliens had the vote (McCain only won by 3,903 votes).
It's a very dangerous electoral game the pro-amnesty group of Republicans is playing. Never mind the irrefutable objections to immigration reform based on fundamental rule of law principles, national security concerns, and economic arguments, this type of legislation can also be clearly shown to lead to potential electoral disasters for conservatives.
Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/08/electoral_suicide.html#ixzz2bVBffA5J
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Make no mistake, this is the defining issue of our age, it must be stopped...
montanadave
08-09-13, 15:15
Seems to me the immigration issue is "heads, you win; tails, I lose" for the GOP.
If they stonewall any form of immigration reform which includes a pathway for citizenship, they risk alienating the fastest growing demographic in the country and losing a generation of hispanic voters. And if immigration reform does go through, the majority of those new voters will presumably vote democratic.
The GOP needs hispanic voters. They just don't seem to have found the right strategy. Playing hardball on immigration reform placates the base, but placating the base isn't gonna cut it.
Immigration reform may appear to be electoral suicide, but pissing on the hispanic vote is demographic suicide.
Brawndo has electrolytes.
Alaskapopo
08-09-13, 15:35
Seems to me the immigration issue is "heads, you win; tails, I lose" for the GOP.
If they stonewall any form of immigration reform which includes a pathway for citizenship, they risk alienating the fastest growing demographic in the country and losing a generation of hispanic voters. And if immigration reform does go through, the majority of those new voters will presumably vote democratic.
The GOP needs hispanic voters. They just don't seem to have found the right strategy. Playing hardball on immigration reform placates the base, but placating the base isn't gonna cut it.
Immigration reform may appear to be electoral suicide, but pissing on the hispanic vote is demographic suicide.
They need to take a hard look at their policies that are alienating over half of the country. Drop stuff that does not matter like the abortion issue.
Pat
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/08/09/Whip-Team-s-Schock-Majority-of-House-Republicans-support-Cantor-s-DREAM-Act
Apparently it's going to pass.
Well, one more thing to add to the "What the USA has in common with the Roman Empire" list.
The Hispanics with money (non-hollywood) always go Republican don't they?
Seems to me the immigration issue is "heads, you win; tails, I lose" for the GOP.
If they stonewall any form of immigration reform which includes a pathway for citizenship, they risk alienating the fastest growing demographic in the country and losing a generation of hispanic voters. And if immigration reform does go through, the majority of those new voters will presumably vote democratic.
The GOP needs hispanic voters. They just don't seem to have found the right strategy. Playing hardball on immigration reform placates the base, but placating the base isn't gonna cut it.
Immigration reform may appear to be electoral suicide, but pissing on the hispanic vote is demographic suicide.
Yep, if they want any chance they need to DEFINE the terms rather than have the terms defined for them.
We need to be very much PRO IMMIGRATION as our country was built on immigrants.
We need to be very much ANTI ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION. We need to stress that ILLEGALS undermine the legitimate immigration system and inhibit the ability of people to lawfully immigrate to this country.
I'm amazed that politicians constantly allow themselves to be painted into that corner.
And typically, those who come here LEGALLY, who pay money and invest time to do it right generally aren't coming here for a handout. They are coming here for the chance to have a better life.
Those who don't even respect our immigration policies, who basically cut in front of the line of everyone coming here "legally", generally don't do anything else the correct way and typically will be seeking handouts.
The Republicans need to promote the significant difference between the two hispanic groups because they have little in common with each other beyond language and cultural backgrounds.
Moose-Knuckle
08-09-13, 16:11
Electorial suicide is one thing and the suicide of a Super Power is another.
They need to take a hard look at their policies that are alienating over half of the country. Drop stuff that does not matter like the abortion issue.
Pat
Murder doesn't matter-Alaskapopo
Whiskey_Bravo
08-09-13, 16:17
They need to take a hard look at their policies that are alienating over half of the country. Drop stuff that does not matter like the abortion issue.
Pat
If it doesn't matter to you I can see how you would think it shouldn't matter to anyone.
Eurodriver
08-09-13, 16:36
They need to take a hard look at their policies that are alienating over half of the country. Drop stuff that does not matter like the abortion issue.
Pat
Anymore advice for the GOP, hotshot?
They need to take a hard look at their policies that are alienating over half of the country. Drop stuff that does not matter like the abortion issue.
Pat
Murdering babies matters to me, but I don't recall that being a major campaign focus of any candidate in the last election. I don't really even recall it being brought up. Nevertheless, it matters enough to me that I would consider voting Democrat if one promised to do everything they could to make abortion illegal. Considering that there is barely a nickel's worth of difference between left and right on the other issues, I would say that abortion and guns are two of the bigger defining issues.
I don't even know why I'm doing this, as arguing on abortion is futile. We are all locked in our perspectives, but I have 11 minutes until m next meeting...
I think Alaskapopo's point was this:
Some Hot button social issues cut both ways. There are lots of single issue voters on the abortion issue on both sides. Most pro choice voters I know will never vote for a prolife candidate - period. Many pro life voters will never vote for a pro choice candidate - period. Hard core pro life candidates cut off huge parts of the electorate with that stance.
It is different than gun rights. I know of lots of pro gun voters who are one issue voters. I know of no anti gun voters who are. That issue really only cuts one way. In crass political calculations, that is why federal gun bans are tough to pass.
Personally, I would like the party of "small government" to stay out of my marriage, my wife's womb, my email, my gun safe... If you think abortion is murder, don't have one. The humanity of a fetus at say 10 weeks is a religious, ethical, moral issue. Scientifically, its not viable and its not a person. I'm personally pro life, but I don't seek to extend my morality to the whole country. Saying a woman who has an abortion at 8 weeks is a murderer is exactly why the GOP has a huge gender gap.
If the GOP focuses on the budget and on the ever increasing reach of government, they win. IF they try and drag people back to the old testament, run away from science, and stoop to sexist, homophobic, and racially polarizing comments, they lose. The sooner they figure that out, the better. The country is an increasingly diverse, increasingly urban country. Reagan couldn't get elected in this Republican party. That should say something.
Y'all have a happy day.
The_War_Wagon
08-09-13, 17:10
The GOP needs hispanic AMERICAN CITIZEN voters.
FIXED it for you.
Moose-Knuckle
08-09-13, 17:11
If the GOP focuses on the budget and on the ever increasing reach of government, they win. IF they try and drag people back to the old testament, run away from science, and stoop to sexist, homophobic, and racially polarizing comments, they lose. The sooner they figure that out, the better. The country is an increasingly diverse, increasingly urban country. Reagan couldn't get elected in this Republican party. That should say something.
The country is increasingly circling the bowl . . .
FromMyColdDeadHand
08-09-13, 17:12
Back on topic, why is this all about MExicans? Just because of a freak of geography they get to walk here.
What about sub-Saharan Africans that have had been dealt the shittiest sandwhich of the all? Why not give them a bit at the American apple pie?
What this has taught me is that if you can get 11 million or so people to ignore the law, you can get the law changed. The NRA is only half that, we need to get to 15 million and then tell them to take their gun laws and stuff it.
This fight was lost with the 14th Amendment. Once the tree of the illegal roots bears fruit, this game was over. Slavery and its after shocks screwing America again.
Pat- why not have the Dems give up their love affair with public sector unions, like FDR thought.
SomeOtherGuy
08-09-13, 17:12
Historically, around the world, stable nations are made up of one people, a group sharing ethnicity, language, and religion. Think of France, Sweden, Italy, Norway, Finland, England (just England, not the whole UK), Japan, Korea, and Egypt. Not the Benetton picture of what we're supposed to be, but a historical reality.
Contra, conglomerates of multiple different peoples - with differing ethnicities, languages, religions, social mores, etc. - have generally been empires. Empires can be rich for a period of time, but they always decay and become unstable, and usually become brutal as well.
There are a few exceptions - artificial states created by more powerful outside forces assigning arbitrary boundaries based on their own interests or military achievements. Some glorious examples include Iraq and British India (including Pakistan and Bangladesh). These artificial and arbitrary states are generally not powerful, but highly unstable and fracture.
The US, through perhaps the 1960's, was a nation. It had numerous immigrants at each point in time, but despite fears of non-assimilation with each wave, the vast majority of immigrants were absorbed and gradually become part of the national culture. I would argue that this worked decently but never perfectly, and started decaying rapidly in the 1960's (along with most everything else). The US today could recover its status as a cohesive nation, with some improbable level of wisdom at all political levels, but the current trajectory looks like empire and dissolution.
RearwardAssist
08-09-13, 17:14
The Hispanics with money (non-hollywood) always go Republican don't they?
I run a construction company in Phoenix and come into contact with A lot of hispanics I would say a vast majority are conservative some just don't know it.
Belmont31R
08-09-13, 18:06
The last amnesty didn't change how Hispanics vote. This one won't, either.
Also, immigration and the build up of this country is greatly over thought of. Even during the 1800's immigration at most counted for only 11% of the population growth, and usually in the single digits. It's not like a quarter or a third or half the growth was due to immigrants. A lot of them came here for a year or a couple years then went back home, anyways.
I also think the 11 million number is bogus. They've been saying that for a long time as if the number of illegals here hasn't changed in a decade.
Alaskapopo
08-09-13, 18:07
Anymore advice for the GOP, hotshot?
Welcome to the ignore list as you can't seem to post without resorting to sarcasm and insults.
pat
Alaskapopo
08-09-13, 18:16
Pat- why not have the Dems give up their love affair with public sector unions, like FDR thought.
Oh yea I almost forgot you think public sector workers should be slaves with no rights. If the republicans stopped being so anti working class they could pick up a lot of votes. Simple because their are people that agree with them on a lot of issues except where they want to slash their wages and benefits and do away with their unions.
Anyway back on topic. I don't vote party line anymore. I vote for the person based on their stance on the issues and their track record. Too many idiots on both sides just voting for the R or the D on the ballot because they are too lazy or intellectually challenged to actually research the candidates and the issues.
Pat
FromMyColdDeadHand
08-09-13, 18:42
Oh yea I almost forgot you think public sector workers should be slaves with no rights. If the republicans stopped being so anti working class they could pick up a lot of votes. Simple because their are people that agree with them on a lot of issues except where they want to slash their wages and benefits and do away with their unions.
Anyway back on topic. I don't vote party line anymore. I vote for the person based on their stance on the issues and their track record. Too many idiots on both sides just voting for the R or the D on the ballot because they are too lazy or intellectually challenged to actually research the candidates and the issues.
Pat
Pat, your avatar is missing, may I suggest:
http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQfjRaqqjShGRdbcoI_RJNfF2ynX-Z_lbNnXQYnN_MobVkn-iZF
You've got a one-track argumentative style. Seriously, you're smarter and better than that.
Alaskapopo
08-09-13, 19:28
Pat, your avatar is missing, may I suggest:
http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQfjRaqqjShGRdbcoI_RJNfF2ynX-Z_lbNnXQYnN_MobVkn-iZF
You've got a one-track argumentative style. Seriously, you're smarter and better than that.
Well the union thing was a side track from this thread and secondly the Republican party has done a lot to alienate working class people who would like to vote republican but can not support their anti labor anti workers rights stance. Its not a straw man argument its the truth. I dropped my party affiliation for the republican party after I just got sick of anti worker agenda they keep trying to pass.
Pat
montanadave
08-09-13, 19:37
And now pack to our originally scheduled programming (sans abortion and public sector unions debate).
Please?
Alaskapopo
08-09-13, 19:44
And now pack to our originally scheduled programming (sans abortion and public sector unions debate).
Please?
I understand your sentiment but the above are just some of the many issues that is pushing many people away from the GOP. With as far in big business pocket as the GOP is I doubt they will support workers rights anytime soon but they could drop their stance on abortion (not support it just have no comment) fairly easily and win a few people over and the pro lifers are not going to go democrat. If the GOP does not do something to change its image it will have a very difficult time winning any national level election.
Pat
SeriousStudent
08-09-13, 19:51
And now pack to our originally scheduled programming (sans abortion and public sector unions debate).
Please?
Oh, so very this.
The very next post that is directed at a person rather than the issue of voting, gets this thing locked. Talk about the original issue.
Some folks here just want GD to go away, and a bunch of you are making the case for them so easily.
Seems to me the immigration issue is "heads, you win; tails, I lose" for the GOP.
If they stonewall any form of immigration reform which includes a pathway for citizenship, they risk alienating the fastest growing demographic in the country and losing a generation of hispanic voters. And if immigration reform does go through, the majority of those new voters will presumably vote democratic.
The GOP needs hispanic voters. They just don't seem to have found the right strategy. Playing hardball on immigration reform placates the base, but placating the base isn't gonna cut it.
Immigration reform may appear to be electoral suicide, but pissing on the hispanic vote is demographic suicide.
Let me pose this question:
I am a "mutt" ethnically, equal parts German/Irish/Italian/Slovak. If there was a tidal wave of, say, German illegal immigrants these days why would I not be "offended" by efforts to reign that in? I mean, I have NO freaking connection to those people other than my heritage (which quite frankly I consider to be AMERICAN 110%). I realize that a tidal wave of illegal immigration isn't good for this country. They're not my "pisos" or "brothus". They're foreigners who have illegally come here.
So, why would U.S.-born Hispanics (or even more likely to be opposed) naturalized Hispanics be against cracking down on illegal immigration? I suspect that perhaps they are not really opposed to it, that it is just bullshit drummed up by the media for effect. Thus no real "loss" per se at the polls.
Now, if there actually is some incomprehensible bullshit "kinship" that would cause one to be offended then you are a piece of traitorous feces that has sold out your own country for some perverted sense of "brotherhood". If that is the case (and I have my doubts) then they can go fark themselves. I absolutely refuse to cater to, pander to, or try to "understand" that horseshit line of thinking if it indeed exists. At that point we wander off into the Anglo/Euro vs. "people of color" debate.
Bottom line? If you don't, first and foremost, look at your "American-ness" first then you are a piece of shit. No apologies.
Alaskapopo
08-09-13, 20:01
If you really want to stop illegal immigration you need to get rid of what they come here for which is jobs. The way to do that is to slam employers who knowingly hire illegals. Put them out of business. If the easy to find jobs dry up for illegals they won't come anymore.
Pat
montanadave
08-09-13, 20:20
No doubt there are a lot of cogs driving the illegal immigration machine. Employers want cheap labor. Unscrupulous employers want workers who can be intimidated into remaining silent about unsafe and illegal workplace conditions. American consumers want the cheap goods produced by cost-cutting employers and cheap labor. We have a large number of unemployed Americans who would rather stay unemployed and avail themselves of public assistance rather than take the menial, dangerous, and/or physically demanding jobs filled by illegal immigrants. And the icing on the cake is the politicization of the issue by elected officials pandering for votes.
Like so many of the really critical issues facing this country, effective and equitable solutions that actually seek to correct the problem (as opposed to simply appeasing a selective voting demographic) require a multi-faceted approach which is going to require some sacrifices.
And that's an approach which the politicians in Congress seem utterly incapable of embracing.
Alaskapopo
08-09-13, 20:25
No doubt there are a lot of cogs driving the illegal immigration machine. Employers want cheap labor. Unscrupulous employers want workers who can be intimidated into remaining silent about unsafe and illegal workplace conditions. American consumers want the cheap goods produced by cost-cutting employers and cheap labor. We have a large number of unemployed Americans who would rather stay unemployed and avail themselves of public assistance rather than take the menial, dangerous, and/or physically demanding jobs filled by illegal immigrants. And the icing on the cake is the politicization of the issue by elected officials pandering for votes.
Like so many of the really critical issues facing this country, effective and equitable solutions that actually seek to correct the problem (as opposed to simply appeasing a selective voting demographic) require a multi-faceted approach which is going to require some sacrifices.
And that's an approach which the politicians in Congress seem utterly incapable of embracing.
Right on. We have people on welfare living in housing that taxpayers pay while we have fish canneries importing former gang banger in from the lower 48 and foreign workers to do slime line work for $7.75 an hour. I am all for giving someone a safety net when they are on hard times but it should not be a way of life and being on public assistance should not be comfortable. It should be very uncomfortable. So as long as we have people willing to hire illegals for better pay than they can make in Mexico they will come.
Pat
Right on. We have people on welfare living in housing that taxpayers pay while we have fish canneries importing former gang banger in from the lower 48 and foreign workers to do slime line work for $7.75 an hour. I am all for giving someone a safety net when they are on hard times but it should not be a way of life and being on public assistance should not be comfortable. It should be very uncomfortable. So as long as we have people willing to hire illegals for better pay than they can make in Mexico they will come.
Pat
While we don't necessarily see eye-to-eye in most threads I'll agree on this point:
It should be a safety net, not a safety hammock to lay in indefinitely, sometimes even for generations!
I'm all for Amnesty. All the illegal immigrants should have to do is 1. ASSIMILATE TO OUR CULTURE. That means learn English and use it. 2. Learn American history and pass a test, written in English with no assistance. 3. Renounce their previous citizenship. 4. Refer to themselves as Americans, not _______-American. 5. Take no public assistance on any sort of permanent basis. You lose your job, you get unemployment that you paid into, get basic needs coverage and get off it within a few months. Short of a political refugee, you'd better come to America with something to offer if you want to stay.
I have little (read NO) patience with people who come here for all the benefits America has to offer, yet continue to revel in how great the culture is from where they fled!
As for what Alaskapopo said, I take pride in disagreeing with most everything he posts. But this time, he's right. If the GOP wants to retain any sort of relevance in American politics, it's time to clean house. They MUST return to the core concepts of liberty and fiscal conservatism. They have to be blind and impartial on whose rights they champion. Social conservatism is all well and good, so long as it's practiced in churches, community outreach and a "practice what you preach" style of leadership. It has zero business being codified into law. No more of this "I know what's best for people" Big Brother crap. LEAVE OTHER PEOPLE ALONE ALREADY!
As for economics, it's time to return to the sort of free enterprise that hasn't been practiced in America in decades. No more of this governmentally managed risk garbage. That goes for companies AND workers. If you run a slipshod business, you should expect to go out of business. If you produce an overpriced, poorly made product for your employer, you should expect to become unemployed. If you commit fraud in the way you conduct business, you should expect to go to prison AND have all your assets seized.
I have never in my life seen our form of government so wildly out of control. They are pissing on our heads daily and telling us it's raining. Why are there not millions of people marching on Washington DC daily with pitch forks and torches? Their approval ratings have hovered near single digits for years, and yet they sit on their thrones and pretend they're doing a great job and don't get the respect they deserve. It's repugnant. :mad:
Belmont31R
08-10-13, 01:46
I agree with immigration if it benefits our country. What immigration has become is a way for employers to hold wages down because of the quality of immigrants has gone down. Legal or illegal immigrants are here for cheap labor.
The second aspect of bringing poor people here is they are more likely to support Democrat candidates. The Democrats have been salivating over getting these people into voting booths (legally) for decades. It's to their benefit, and given the margins in elections this will shift the balance to primarily Democrat in many areas.
We will go back to decades of Democrat rule, and this time it's going to be far worse than the last multi decade run they had.
We also need to look at what areas of the labor market have shortages. The needs of the host country should be an important part of immigration. The H1B visa program has been used to fill gaps with technical fields, and the rules around the program specify that the visa holders be paid at the same rate as their American coworkers to ensure that they are not being used for the company to get cheap labor. Allowing a mass importation of people with lower standards of living to compete with Americans isn't going to help anything. I don't want to live 10 people to a house because an immigrant will when wages go down.
I also believe we need to allow local and state LE to be involved in immigration law enforcement. That doesn't mean allowing them to demand every brown person produce ID by request but its BS local LE can refer most other crimes to the Feds but not an illegal alien.
There's no perfect answer that will fix things just due to having a huge border with a 3rd world nation, and an entire continent below that of people who want to come here but we can at least make an attempt to ensure any reform is primarily to our benefit. Amnesty for millions is a political move that has no benefit to the vast majority of Americans and is primarily being pushed to advance the voter rolls for Democrats. We can allow the labor industries like agriculture need with blanket amnesty.
Belmont31R
08-10-13, 01:52
I agree with immigration if it benefits our country. What immigration has become is a way for employers to hold wages down because of the quality of immigrants has gone down. Legal or illegal immigrants are here for cheap labor.
The second aspect of bringing poor people here is they are more likely to support Democrat candidates. The Democrats have been salivating over getting these people into voting booths (legally) for decades. It's to their benefit, and given the margins in elections this will shift the balance to primarily Democrat in many areas.
We will go back to decades of Democrat rule, and this time it's going to be far worse than the last multi decade run they had.
We also need to look at what areas of the labor market have shortages. The needs of the host country should be an important part of immigration. The H1B visa program has been used to fill gaps with technical fields, and the rules around the program specify that the visa holders be paid at the same rate as their American coworkers to ensure that they are not being used for the company to get cheap labor. Allowing a mass importation of people with lower standards of living to compete with Americans isn't going to help anything. I don't want to live 10 people to a house because an immigrant will when wages go down.
I also believe we need to allow local and state LE to be involved in immigration law enforcement. That doesn't mean allowing them to demand every brown person produce ID by request but its BS local LE can refer most other crimes to the Feds but not an illegal alien.
There's no perfect answer that will fix things just due to having a huge border with a 3rd world nation, and an entire continent below that of people who want to come here but we can at least make an attempt to ensure any reform is primarily to our benefit. Amnesty for millions is a political move that has no benefit to the vast majority of Americans and is primarily being pushed to advance the voter rolls for Democrats. We can allow the labor industries like agriculture need with blanket amnesty.
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