The begining of the end!

[ddemis]

The united states congress is concidering minting steel coins! Louise Guiteres ( D-ILL)who oversees the commitee for the treasure department has proposed the minting of steel coins to offset the high cost of prescious metals used in minting of American coins. I fear very soon U.S. currency won't be worth toilet paper! What next, food rationing and gas cards?

[BushmasterFanBoy]

The united states congress is concidering minting steel coins! Louise Guiteres ( D-ILL)who oversees the commitee for the treasure department has proposed the minting of steel coins to offset the high cost of prescious metals used in minting of American coins. I fear very soon U.S. currency won't be worth toilet paper! What next, food rationing and gas cards?

It hasn't been worth anything in a long, long time. Fiat currency never is.

[Submariner]

Will we import the steel from China?:confused:

[ddemis]

All I can say is, buy Gold. It will always be worth it's own weight and those who don't have it may go hungry. How sad to see our great nation stolen right out from under us.

[Gutshot John]

Oh sheesh not again. Ok...the end is nigh...the sky is falling...it's the beginning of the end? Are you kidding me? Price of copper is at an all time high... hence anything that uses copper becomes more expensive to produce. You're seeing the same thing with ammo. If the war ends, prices of copper will go down and this will all be a moot point.

Lighten up Francis.

But by all means, I'm willing to entertain discussions of the end of the world. What are you going to use for your metrics? How do you quantify the end of the world? How is this any different (and significantly MORE intense) than any number of business cycles we've endured as a country?

PS. Buying gold at current historic high prices is a sure-fire way to lose a boatload of money. It's not going to go that much higher and is far more likely to fall. If they world is going to end you're better off buying ammo.

[ddemis]

I never said the world was coming to an end, just our monetary system and that leads to everything else coming apart too.

[Gutshot John]

I never said the world was coming to an end, just our monetary system and that leads to everything else coming apart too.

Ok then...the END of the world and US economic system.

Based on what? The price of copper going up?

Please.

[Creature]

(sound of crickets)

[gyp_c2]

If they world is going to end you're better off buying ammo.
...and pass the P-Mags please...http://emoticons4u.com/smoking/rauch06.gif

[KintlaLake]

Buying gold at current historic high prices is a sure-fire way to lose a boatload of money.

Someone needed to say that. Thanks, 'John. :cool:

[Cameron]

I am preparing for the end.

I am stocking up on:

1. Vodka
2. Orange Juice
3. Potato Chips
4. Tequila
5. Margarita Mix
6. Gin
7. Mellow Puffs
8. Vodka

[dzhitshard]

& toilette paper.

Shirt sleeves, socks, leaves & then fingers gets OLD. If it's coming to an end the country will want comfy butt wipe.
THAT'S where the $$ will be.:cool:

[tiger seven]

We had steel pennies during WWII, another period of time in which a great deal of copper was being used for more important things than coins.

Derek

[Voodoochild]

Speaking of pennies it cost 1.25 to produce one penny and about 7.7 cents to produce one nickel.

[charger02]

Someone needed to say that. Thanks, 'John. :cool:

I think that depends on how long you plan on investing in gold. I have to say it is fun checking the prices daily and seeing the fluctuations in the market. Because I am not too concerned about the short term I am not worried. Over the last 10 year period gold has been great. It remains to be seen if the next 10 years will be just as good:rolleyes:

[dhrith]

I'm not too worried, as someone pointed out they had steel pennies in 43'. Have one it's pretty neat. Imagine they'll be saying the same thing about the 08' steel dime. Makes no never mind to me, would hope my ammo would get cheaper though, if so I'm all for it.

[KintlaLake]

I think that depends on how long you plan on investing in gold. ... Over the last 10 year period gold has been great. It remains to be seen if the next 10 years will be just as good:rolleyes:

Agree.

I scratch my head, though, at the assertion that having a big pile of Au will somehow be indispensable if anarchy reigns. :rolleyes: Better, I think, to follow Gutshot John's advice (ammo) and Cameron's lead (booze), add a coupla Fat 50s of rolled coins and be done with it.

I think Cameron may be focused on self-anesthesia rather than barter, though... :D

[ddemis]

I hope you guys are right.

[sproc]

Ammo is good for some circumstances, gold for others.

If we have Weimar-style hyperinflation or simply an oppressive government that makes you want to leave the country, having money in the bank or ammo at home will do you no good; neither will be allowed out of the country. Here you want gold to preserve your purchasing power wherever you go. If you are worried that gold will drop in price, buy physical gold coins AND short a gold ETF in the same amount. You won't get any net gains or losses or interest, but you'll have some stored wealth that cannot be confiscated or inflated away. This is about safety, not investment.

If the SHTF where you live, you can't eat gold or kill anybody with it, so you need food and ammo for your own use. When things calm down a bit, yeah toilet paper, cigarettes, booze, etc., will make good barter items while waiting for things to get back to normal at the local grocery store, hopefully sooner than later.

So, at risk of sounding like arfcom, buy both.

Gutshot, do you counsel us to cancel all our insurance policies, too?

[Gutshot John]

If the world economic system collapses I don't know what good you think insurance will do for you? That being said no I don't think you should cancel your life insurance if your employer is paying for it, but I wouldn't recommend buying any either if it's out of your pocket.

Whatever else gold is, it will still requires some market to ascribe value. It's also very problematic to use as a medium of exchange which was one of the reasons we switched to currency.

Currently that market has gold at an high and while gold may give you some relief against inflation, it will be catastrophic in the case of deflation. Moreover
if there is no catastrophe, you will be buying gold at historic highs, you need to hold it AT LEAST 10 years before you're going to see any return on your investment.

Even still you're presuming global economic collapse willl be inflationary. An economic collapse of this magnitude would be deflationary. Gold offers little protection there.

You're better off with things that can be exchanged....bullets, beans and band-aids.

[sproc]

Gutshot, you are intermingling different situations. Of course you're going to find that the preparations for one don't necessarily help in another.

I re-read my previous post, and I believe it is clear and that if you re-read it you will find within it the answers to all the questions you just asked me. Use the first sentence as a guide for interpreting the rest of the post: "Ammo is good for some circumstances, gold for others." I am quite certain I addressed the issue of avoiding losses when the price of gold declines but you repeated that concern again as if I hadn't.

But I will add that I think the preparations being discussed in this thread all fall within the category of "What all prudent men should do regardless of current circumstances." Further, I wouldn't dream of discouraging others from making preparations that are way outside of what I consider prudent (fallout shelter, anti-asteroid missile battery, whatever). I don't want that on my hands should I be wrong.

[Gutshot John]

Fair enough

I was not discouraging anyone from making preparations.

Someone said to buy gold... go ahead and buy gold if you'd like to lose a bunch of money. The whole point of an investment is to buy low and sell high. Buying high and selling low is a loser.

In the short-term the price of gold is far more likely to drop than rise. You're looking at a minimum of 10+ years and even then...what are you really likely to see? 6? 7% return?

If there is a global economic meltdown, your gold is going to be worth whatever the person is willing to accept. NOT the market rate YOU paid for it.

In that situation it would take a lot of gold coins to get me to part with some ammo or guns. Far more than you're likely to have.

So what do you think you're going to do with all that gold? Sure have some around, but no more than you can easily carry/hide. Gems might even be a better way to go as they're a lot lighter.

If you're looking for a stable investment, that will maintain its value through an economic collapse, land is the only way to go.

[sproc]

Your concerns about buying gold as an investment are all valid. But I don't think anyone was suggesting we buy gold as an investment but rather as a way to diminish the effects of certain financial crises. In these scenarios, one isn't too concerned about a hit to their portfolio (even a big hit) if the gold price declines. They are concerned with losing their entire savings because the dollar becomes worthless, either through hyperinflation, US bankruptcy, Hillary stealing it to pay for _____, or the government not allowing you to take your money with you to another country if you decide that's what's best for you.

As you point out, there is another kind of financial crisis in which gold gets hammered relative to cash: a depression. Fortunately you can avoid losses in this scenario by 100% hedging your gold. You do this by buying -- say -- $10,000 worth of gold coins and burying them in your garden. At the same time, you log into brokerage account and execute a $10,000 short sale on some form of gold such as the GLD gold ETF. By doing this, you will be insulated from any losses or gains regardless of what gold's price does. If it goes up, you lose money on your short sale of GLD but make an identical gain on the physical gold. Vice versa if the price goes down. I suppose if it goes up a LOT, you would have to sell some of your physical gold to cover the losses in your brokerage account, but worst case is that you sell all of your gold and have a net loss equal to whatever your brokerage's commission is ($10 or whatever) plus the bid/ask spread on the ETF and coins. Nothing that's going to cause significant pain.

Kinda complicated, but by doing this you get to hold physical gold in case the USD goes kaput but don't have to worry about a depression or the USD somehow recovering.

So this is perfect for a USD crisis. It is a bad investment because you are guaranteed to basically break even regardless, but that's not the goal.

Now, as you say, physical gold is also worthless in a SHTF scenario. I agree. Nobody will trade bread for gold when everyone is starving. If this happens, you keep the gold buried and pray for a speedy return to normalcy. Meanwhile you rely on the OTHER preparations you made: food, ammo, etc.

Regarding land, I agree that's a good thing to have in a SHTF scenario because you can defend it and grow food. However, it is worthless if the political situation deteriorates to the point that you feel compelled to leave the country but the government won't let you sell your property and take the proceeds with you. In a non-SHTF financial crisis, it's debatable whether it's better to have land or cash. In hyperinflation, it would be best to have land with an enormous mortgage, whose cash you long ago put into tangible assets. In a depression, I'm thinking I'd rather have the cash since it will buy a lot more land as time goes on. Individual choice.

Ideally to cover all situations we'd all have a small farm, guns, ammo, gold (properly hedged), money in an account in a foreign country, and a 1-way ticket to that foreign country. Plus whatever investment you hold in case there is no crisis. Since most of us don't have the wealth for all of this, we each have to chose which scenarios we think are most likely and act accordingly. The hardest part is deciding make the preparations even while you cling to the belief/hope that things will continue to be fine forever.

Finally, If you can't afford to buy both gold and ammo, buy ammo, of course. Just make sure you also buy enough food or land so that you're not tempted to do evil by using your ammo to steal your neighbor's food.

I hope that makes sense.

[Gutshot John]

I hope that makes sense.

Perfect sense.

[Cameron]

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