View Full Version : China eyes up Japan?
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/02/19/china-preps-military-for-short-sharp-war-with-japan-says-us-navy/
Hmmm......payback? Do we have a defense treaty with Japan?
Moose-Knuckle
02-21-14, 16:47
China has had a military build up for some time now. War games, ships that can launch nukes on our West coast to the Mid-West, etc. The Rape of Nanking wasn't that long ago, so when the Red Dragon spreads it's wings they will remember Japan and her sins.
Somehow I don't think that would go well for China.
Doc Safari
02-21-14, 16:57
Somehow I don't think that would go well for China.
Why not? Does Barry have the guts to do anything about it? I don't think so.
China has had a military build up for some time now. War games, ships that can launch nukes on our West coast to the Mid-West, etc. The Rape of Nanking wasn't that long ago, so when the Red Dragon spreads it's wings they will remember Japan and her sins.
And unfortunately, we are in a most [im]perfect position: economically strained and a military being cut and downsized, pre-occupied with domestic issues. Sure, we would no doubt surprise the ChiComs (as I think they underestimate us) but with Obunghole in the chair I hold out little hope for real resistance on our part.
China's economy is hurting too, but they don't readily admit it (no surprise with a totalitarian regime). They can threaten nukes but we still---for now---hold the upper hand there. 1.5 billion people can be reduced rather quickly......but so can the population west of the Mississippi River.
Heavy Metal
02-21-14, 17:12
Why not? Does Barry have the guts to do anything about it? I don't think so.
Japan could put china's Navy on the bottom of the Pacific in two days if they so desired.
They could acquire nukes in days I am told.
I sincerely hope we don't get involved in other nation's wars, again. Especially when it's over a few small rocks floating in the East China Sea and our nation is under increasing economic instability.
However, the U.S. - Japan Security Treaty obligates us to intervene militarily, I believe, like South Korea and the Philippines. We'd be better off putting match & fire to these treaties, pulling our troops out, and letting them figure it out on their own.
Somehow I don't think that would go well for China.
I don't think it would go well for anyone.
China's economy is hurting too, but they don't readily admit it (no surprise with a totalitarian regime). They can threaten nukes but we still---for now---hold the upper hand there. 1.5 billion people can be reduced rather quickly......but so can the population west of the Mississippi River.
Even if you kill a million a day it'll take 4 years to wipe them all out...
Why not? Does Barry have the guts to do anything about it? I don't think so.
Obama won't do jack. But I think Japan would still throw down.
It's not in our interest or China's to go at each other. We have seen the Chinese sabre rattling for at least 20 years as I recall (remember our P3?).
I have no love for Obama, but I don't understand why anyone would want us to do anything anyway.
It's not in our interest or China's to go at each other. We have seen the Chinese sabre rattling for at least 20 years as I recall (remember our P3?).
Correct. Hope it stays that way.
I have no love for Obama, but I don't understand why anyone would want us to do anything anyway.
Isolationism didn't work too well in the 1930's.
Look, I have NO desire to get involved in another war....but sometimes shit happens that necessitates that response (unfortunately). China and her annoying little buddy North Korea are the last communist behemoths. I'm content to leave them that way unless they attempt to expand their territories by force (as has been our policy for 60+ years).
China has had a military build up for some time now. War games, ships that can launch nukes on our West coast to the Mid-West, etc. The Rape of Nanking wasn't that long ago, so when the Red Dragon spreads it's wings they will remember Japan and her sins.
Yep. http://www.jeffhead.com/redseadragon/2014.htm
Isolationism didn't work too well in the 1930's.
And intervening in every little shithole the last 65 years has netted us what exactly?
I can't think of anything positive, only a bunch of negatives
PA PATRIOT
02-21-14, 21:26
Japan has their shit wired and would put a hurting on China both on the sea and air. Only Nukes or a flat out invasion of the masses would really put Japan in a bad position, but the last two options would never occur as Japan has mutual defense pacts with the U.S., British, Australians.
And intervening in every little shithole the last 65 years has netted us what exactly?
I can't think of anything positive, only a bunch of negatives
Gee, I dunno.....maybe somewhere in-between? Like delivering a smackdown when appropriate. Skip the nation-building part unless we can install our own guy and then GTFO. In this case keep one of the last vestiges of communism from forcibly seizing territory.
Couple of points:
1) Korea is still free.
2) Vietnam is certainly debatable but the "Domino Theory" did in fact take place (sans Thailand). Ironic that today they are more likely to side with us than the Chinese in a conflict.
3) Afghanistan....we went there for perfect reasons. What direction things have taken afterward is wide-open for discussion.
4) Iraq? Defied UN sanctions repeatedly over the years, refused cooperation during the tense end-game, and did have some WMD (not the motherload many demanded....shipped out of country beforehand? Certainly possible). Most successful COIN op in recent years while we were there (that point cannot be emphasized enough).
5) Nicaragua. Our insurgency instigated there did eventually work. Ugly? Sure....name me a war that isn't.
6) El Salvador. Oh yeah, ugly too but refer to the above "war" comment. Not communist-run to this date.
7) Panama....sayonara Noriega and still a functioning democracy in Central America, of course with a little regional corruptness tossed in.
8) Lebanon? Agreed, disaster at a staggering loss of lives.
BoringGuy45
02-21-14, 22:10
China gains absolutely nothing by starting a war with any one of our allies, and they would likely lose everything. They could try and start something, and North Korea would probably be along for the ride, but in a few years, China would be divided between American, British, Japanese, and (probably) Indian sectors, all of Korea would be united under the South's flag, and Taiwan's government would be probably be moved to Beijing. They know this though and China has been isolationist in its ideology since Sino-Vietnam war. This is nothing more than saber rattling.
China gains absolutely nothing by starting a war with any one of our allies, and they would likely lose everything. They could try and start something, and North Korea would probably be along for the ride, but in a few years, China would be divided between American, British, Japanese, and (probably) Indian sectors, all of Korea would be united under the South's flag, and Taiwan's government would be probably be moved to Beijing. They know this though and China has been isolationist in its ideology since Sino-Vietnam war. This is nothing more than saber rattling.
That may be true, but the rest is a rather optimistic prediction on what would happen should it come to fruition.
An escalating conflict between Japan and China would make Mother Russia a huge wild card. You can guess pretty accurately where they would side. A conflict between China and Japan could potentially be bad news for an entire generation.
Japan has their shit wired and would put a hurting on China both on the sea and air. Only Nukes or a flat out invasion of the masses would really put Japan in a bad position, but the last two options would never occur as Japan has mutual defense pacts with the U.S., British, Australians.
There'd probably be another typhoon that'd wipe out the Chinese fleet.
The "kamikaze" seems to be pretty effective and reliable at stopping naval invasions of the home islands.
Belmont31R
02-21-14, 23:42
For a history lesson when WW2 broke out we were economically worse off than we are today.
Logically there is no way for an invasion force to reach the US.
For a history lesson when WW2 broke out we were economically worse off than we are today.
Logically there is no way for an invasion force to reach the US.
To continue that history lesson, we also had a massive industrial capability then, which has since been moved to............China.
Belmont31R
02-22-14, 01:01
To continue that history lesson, we also had a massive industrial capability then, which has since been moved to............China.
Our manufacturing is magnitudes higher today than then.
1.5 billion people can be reduced rather quickly......but so can the population west of the Mississippi River.
Probably the best reason that I've heard for us to attack China tomorrow…;)
To continue that history lesson, we also had a massive industrial capability then, which has since been moved to............China.
All that means is that people like me can finally get over time. Manufacturing may currently be in China but those of us that made up the labor force haven't gone anywhere.
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Everyone seems to assume that we would be fighting all of China. I'd bet that a significant number of Chinese wouldn't even give a shit. You wouldn't fight 350 million Americans if you invaded here.
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Isolationism didn't work too well in the 1930's.
Perhaps, but in hindsight it does seem that a strong case can be made that isolationism would have been the correct policy for the U.S. in WWI. Had Wilson kept us out of the war, then in all likelihood neither side would have been victorious. There would have been some sort of truce because after 3 years neither side really had enough strength remaining to defeat the other. Thus no punitive Treaty of Versailles, no mass starvation and humiliation of the German people, no economically crippling war reparations, etc. And that very likely means, no rise of National Socialism, no Holocaust, and no WWII.
Outlander Systems
02-22-14, 07:49
(January 2012) Dudley Poston is fascinated by China's "demographic exceptionalism." The country has the world's largest population, and in the 70s managed to achieve one of the fastest fertility declines in human history. China's "one-child" population policy has resulted in a number of unique demographic events and transitions, including an imbalance of the sex ratio at birth. Millions of "extra" boys have been born: Already, 41 million bachelors will not have women to marry. If nothing is done to change this trend, Poston noted, by 2020 there will be 55 million extra boys in China.
http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2012/china-census-excess-males.aspx
55 million roosters without a henhouse...
I think ya'll can extrapolate how this works to a significant advantage from an aggressive totalitarian regime's perspective...
Perhaps, but in hindsight it does seem that a strong case can be made that isolationism would have been the correct policy for the U.S. in WWI. Had Wilson kept us out of the war, then in all likelihood neither side would have been victorious. There would have been some sort of truce because after 3 years neither side really had enough strength remaining to defeat the other. Thus no punitive Treaty of Versailles, no mass starvation and humiliation of the German people, no economically crippling war reparations, etc. And that very likely means, no rise of National Socialism, no Holocaust, and no WWII.
Interesting premise.
Heavy Metal
02-22-14, 14:09
An escalating conflict between Japan and China would make Mother Russia a huge wild card. You can guess pretty accurately where they would side. A conflict between China and Japan could potentially be bad news for an entire generation.
I suspect Russia would stay the Hell out of it and secretly root for Japan. Anything that weakens China would also likely find favor with them.
China is the biggest threat to Russia, bar none. On over-populated, resource-hungry China next to an under-populated, resource-rich Siberia is their nightmare scenario and they are pretty much living it now. Nukes are the only thing keeping China from owning it tomorrow.
Heavy Metal
02-22-14, 14:14
Our manufacturing is magnitudes higher today than then.
And any war fought today is figured to be waged so quickly, it will basically be a "Come as you are" conflict. That was our strategy for the Soviets.
The idea of ramping-up production and years of build-up no longer applies. You better have it in hand on day one.
Heavy Metal
02-22-14, 14:16
To continue that history lesson, we also had a massive industrial capability then, which has since been moved to............China.
Which would be sucking Donkey Balls once we scuttled their tanker fleet. They have very limited domestic petroleum production and rely on imports from the mid-east that must transit the chokepoint of the straights of Malacca.
Magic_Salad0892
02-22-14, 20:48
And intervening in every little shithole the last 65 years has netted us what exactly?
I can't think of anything positive, only a bunch of negatives
We have the most experienced, and likely well trained military in the world because of it. Our soldiers tend not to sit around with their dicks in their hands.
Cagemonkey
02-23-14, 07:10
Perhaps, but in hindsight it does seem that a strong case can be made that isolationism would have been the correct policy for the U.S. in WWI. Had Wilson kept us out of the war, then in all likelihood neither side would have been victorious. There would have been some sort of truce because after 3 years neither side really had enough strength remaining to defeat the other. Thus no punitive Treaty of Versailles, no mass starvation and humiliation of the German people, no economically crippling war reparations, etc. And that very likely means, no rise of National Socialism, no Holocaust, and no WWII.Wilson bought us into the War at the behest of the new Federal Reserve/PTB. Technically, German had won WWI until the US intervened. The rest that you mention is spot on.
Cagemonkey
02-23-14, 07:14
I suspect Russia would stay the Hell out of it and secretly root for Japan. Anything that weakens China would also likely find favor with them.
China is the biggest threat to Russia, bar none. On over-populated, resource-hungry China next to an under-populated, resource-rich Siberia is their nightmare scenario and they are pretty much living it now. Nukes are the only thing keeping China from owning it tomorrow.
Read a good article about that subject awhile back. Russia has a declining birthrate in Siberia region. Most aren't aware of the info you mentioned. Good stuff to know.
I am reading a Tom Clancy book right now that's premise is China wanting the South China Sea, HK and Taiwan back because it's the only way to get out of their 200+% debt to GDP ratio that will eventually destroy them.....Fascinating.....
Outlander Systems
02-23-14, 10:48
We have the most experienced, and likely well trained military in the world because of it. Our soldiers tend not to sit around with their dicks in their hands.
Aaaaaaaaand there it is.
A prime example of common sense.
What do the odds look like for a football team that's never played a game?
I suspect Russia would stay the Hell out of it and secretly root for Japan. Anything that weakens China would also likely find favor with them.
I am inclined to think that Russia would very much like to see the Chinese PLAN and the US Pacific Fleet annihilate one another.
Heavy Metal
02-23-14, 12:48
China couldn't annihilate the JN, much less the USN.
The entire USN is not in the Pacific, and underestimating potential adversaries often does not turn out well.
http://defensetech.org/2007/11/12/a-little-chinese-sub-buffet/
Heavy Metal
02-23-14, 17:34
The entire JN is in the Pacific and we have a Submarine fleet that is second to none.
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Heavy Metal
02-23-14, 17:36
Tell me Belloc, what does that prove? That we should have sank the sub of a non-belligerent power? How do you know we did not know that sub was there?
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Tell me Belloc, what does that prove? That we should have sank the sub of a non-belligerent power? How do you know we did not know that sub was there?
Oh for the love of...:rolleyes:
Look, I never said that China could sink the U.S. Pacific Fleet, only that I am of the opinion that Putin would probably cheer to see both the PLAN and USN destroy each other.
As for your other comment, I would be more than a little surprised if the USN had a policy of casually allowing attack submarines from China, or Russia, or Iran, etc, to get within torpedo striking range of one of our supercarriers, especially in the middle of a naval exercise. But believe what you want.
Just for fun, here are to scale models of the new Chinese carrier, the Liaoning, side by side with the Nimitz class USS Enterprise.
http://www.jeffhead.com/modelbuilds/CV65-CV16-02.jpg
With more side by side shots here: http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/members-club-room/plan-liaoning-cv-16-1-350-scale-trumpeter-kit-5617-a-6-5911.html
Whiskey_Bravo
02-24-14, 08:10
Just for fun, here are to scale models of the new Chinese carrier, the Liaoning, side by side with the Nimitz class USS Enterprise.
http://www.jeffhead.com/modelbuilds/CV65-CV16-02.jpg
With more side by side shots here: http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/members-club-room/plan-liaoning-cv-16-1-350-scale-trumpeter-kit-5617-a-6-5911.html
I wish I had that kind of time on my hands. Just looked through some of that thread and those are some impressive models.
I wish I had that kind of time on my hands. Just looked through some of that thread and those are some impressive models.
Agreed!
And here is something cool which I did not know till just now, CVN 80 will also be called the Enterprise.
http://www.jeffhead.com/CVN80-BigE/cvn-80-04.jpg
Heavy Metal
02-24-14, 10:33
And how are they going to stop them short of sinking them?
Just for fun, here are to scale models of the new Chinese carrier, the Liaoning, side by side with the Nimitz class USS Enterprise.
http://www.jeffhead.com/modelbuilds/CV65-CV16-02.jpg
With more side by side shots here: http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/members-club-room/plan-liaoning-cv-16-1-350-scale-trumpeter-kit-5617-a-6-5911.html
Thats pretty awesome. Isn't the Liaoning just a Kuznetsov class carrier that the Ukrainians sold to china?
As for your other comment, I would be more than a little surprised if the USN had a policy of casually allowing attack submarines from China, or Russia, or Iran, etc, to get within torpedo striking range of one of our supercarriers, especially in the middle of a naval exercise. But believe what you want.
I've got no dog in the fight but I will tell you that our own subs sneak up on our carriers and play "tag" with them sending them photos of the carriers in their sights. No warning and no detection prior to receiving the pictures.
I've got no dog in the fight but I will tell you that our own subs sneak up on our carriers and play "tag" with them sending them photos of the carriers in their sights. No warning and no detection prior to receiving the pictures.
I have heard of this as well, and in fact I think I recall a documentary on subs where one US sub skipper said he put himself literally just beneath a Soviet carrier. The great surprise however for the USN (apparently, according to reports) is that they had absolutely no idea that Chinese subs had become quite enough to avoid being detected by our subs and surface fleet (probably because of ultra-quite sub propeller technology stolen during the Clinton administration). The thinking (again I am only going by public reporting on these incidents and other information) among many naval warfare experts is that Chinese sub technology seems to have progressed in just about 5-7 years what it should have taken them easily 15 years to achieve.
Thats pretty awesome. Isn't the Liaoning just a Kuznetsov class carrier that the Ukrainians sold to china?
Yes. http://www.jeffhead.com/redseadragon/varyagtransform.htm
China couldn't annihilate the JN, much less the USN.
Why is that? I didn't know the JN Navy and or Mil was that extensive.
Heavy Metal
02-24-14, 11:48
Why is that? I didn't know the JN Navy and or Mil was that extensive.
The Japanese Navy is bigger, better equipped and much better trained.
I've got no dog in the fight but I will tell you that our own subs sneak up on our carriers and play "tag" with them sending them photos of the carriers in their sights. No warning and no detection prior to receiving the pictures.
I do not know if it's still the case, but I do know up 'till fairly recently we could track all their subs and knew where they all were, and they could not do the same. I don't know of their tech has improved the point it alters that, but it was and advantage that we enjoyed for many decades. The tactical advantage of such a thing goes without saying.
The Japanese Navy is bigger, better equipped and much better trained.
Interesting. I had thought post WWII they had been intentionally limited and we generally were their defensive mil, especially on the ocean. I'd expect typical of the Chinese, they'd make up for in shear quantity what they lacked in quality. Just found this:
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/08/06/japan-navy-unveils-biggest-warship-since-wwii/
Chinese PLAN vs Japanese Navy.
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2012/08/23/2003540982
"Japan has 48 major surface combatant ships, including light aircraft carriers, guided-missile destroyers, frigates and corvettes and 16 diesel-electric submarines.
The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) boasts 73 major surface combatants, 84 missile-firing patrol craft and 63 submarines.
“China’s navy is far superior in sheer weight of steel,” Holmes wrote.
However, the PLAN is untested and its quality unsure."
China planning 110,000-ton 'super aircraft carrier'
http://rt.com/news/china-super-aircraft-carrier-634/
Chinese vs. Japanese Destroyers.
http://chinavsjapan.org/destroyers.html
Frigates
http://chinavsjapan.org/frigates.html
Subs
http://chinavsjapan.org/submarines.html
Heavy Metal
02-24-14, 14:09
http://breakingdefense.com/2013/09/chinas-dangerous-weakness-part-1-beijings-aggressive-idea-of-self-defense/
Despite two decades of investment, China’s military is still outgunned by Japan, let alone by the US. “Japan has the strongest navy and air force in Asia except for the United States,” leading analyst Larry Wortzel said Wednesday at the Institute of World Politics, pointing at a map of northeast Asia: “This shows their air force bases and how they’re postured….”
“You said Japan?” interrupted an incredulous member of the audience.
“Japan, that’s correct, absolutely,” said Wortzel. “The most modern, the most effective. [They’re] still restricted by Article 9 of the Constitution” – which “forever renounce[s] war as a sovereign right of the nation” – “but you don’t want to mess with them.”
I do not know if it's still the case, but I do know up 'till fairly recently we could track all their subs and knew where they all were, and they could not do the same...
My frame of reference ends in 2001… At that time I personally saw pictures with CVN-72 in the crosshairs. I think a lot of it depends on who's at the helm, who's doing the detecting, etc.
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