View Full Version : GOP Senate in 2014?
montanadave
03-23-14, 18:09
Nate Silver gives Republicans a slight edge in regaining control of the U.S. Senate this fall by a slim margin. And the guy's arguably the best in the biz when it comes to predicting elections.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast/
Eurodriver
03-23-14, 18:40
Well then he better go ahead and predict a Democratic landslide in 2016.
This always happens; the party that controls Congress during a Presidency held by the other party does absolutely terrible the next election, and for one simple reason: The other party can sit back and say "We tried getting stuff done that would help people, but Congress wasn't having anything of it!!"
See 1948, 1994, 2010, etc
Nate Silver gives Republicans a slight edge in regaining control of the U.S. Senate this fall by a slim margin. And the guy's arguably the best in the biz when it comes to predicting elections.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast/
I'll believe it when I see it. Remember, even after the "revolution" of 2010 we still got shitstain AGAIN in 2012.
brickboy240
03-24-14, 10:13
The winning back of Congress will mean noting if the GOP leadership remains the same.
Remember...back when Dubya was prez and the GOP had the Congress and Executive branch...what did they do?
Nothing...just got us involved in another Vietnam styled nation building project and that was it. Majority was TOTALLY squandered!
They COULD have pushed for tax reform, abolishing of the IRS or some other huge moves but the GOP majority literally did nothing.
-brickboy240
I still see a 51-49 Dem Majority in 2015, maybe a 50-50 split (which translates into a 51-50 Dem Majority).
Bolt_Overide
03-25-14, 09:25
I honestly hope the dems take back the house and keep the senate and then hillary gets potus. It needs to get a lot worse before people will sit up and put in the effort to make it better.
I honestly hope the dems take back the house and keep the senate and then hillary gets potus. It needs to get a lot worse before people will sit up and put in the effort to make it better.
Sadly, you may be right.
A slight veer... I read a poll analysis (Gallup I believe) that said something to the effect that Hillary's main reason to be elected was for us to have the first female POTUS. So now it appears, at least as far as this poll shows to me, that we have become a nation that seeks milestones (ie first black president, first female president, first openly gay president) instead of leadership.
Belmont31R
03-25-14, 18:52
Sadly, you may be right.
A slight veer... I read a poll analysis (Gallup I believe) that said something to the effect that Hillary's main reason to be elected was for us to have the first female POTUS. So now it appears, at least as far as this poll shows to me, that we have become a nation that seeks milestones (ie first black president, first female president, first openly gay president) instead of leadership.
My MIL voted for Obama because it was a democrats turn. On here we tend to be tuned into current events and have an understanding of history. Most of the population doesn't and has absurd ideas when it comes time to vote plus a personal stake in some manner of funding.
I don't want a GOP majority.
The establishment republicans are only a whisker better than the dems.
You can hardly tell them apart.
I'm interested in candidates that practice Liberty and Responsibility.
I don't want a GOP majority.
The establishment republicans are only a whisker better than the dems.
You can hardly tell them apart.
I'm interested in candidates that practice Liberty and Responsibility.
Well, at least you didn't say that the two parties were identical. I'm still a little fuzzy on why you want the party that sucks more to retain control of the Senate.
If Newtown happend in Dec 2008 we would have some type of ban right now...maybe all of it.
You abslutely want a GOP majority. My Father pulls this "I don't like any of them" crap and doesn't vote. Truth is my Dad doesn't really follow politics and really doesn't understand the stakes here. He just likes to be a contrarian.
If Obamacare doesn't get on track in the next 18 months, there is a good chance the GOP could get Congress and the White House. He also has time to F-up several other things which he seems good at and the media is growing tired of protecting him. But in the short term we need to stop a lame duck socialist Presdent. This is the most dangerous president in US history. There is no time for BS.
When I was younger I was a conservative idealist. I voted for Perot the first time. Big mistake.
The reality is you need to just go in the both a pull the lever for the worst of two evils. I hit the all GOP button even though I'm really 95% Libertarian. A conservative third party candidate will hand the socialist the keys to the car and accelerate out doom.
I honestly hope the dems take back the house and keep the senate and then hillary gets potus. It needs to get a lot worse before people will sit up and put in the effort to make it better.
I been saying this since 2010.
Edit: It'd be different if we had 537 Ron Paul's.
I have little hope in either the demos or republicans as both [parties] have run this country for what 150 years and they have fooled the voters well. Let God separate them. The government as we know it and its employees are the biggest threat to our freedoms than any foreign threat.
brickboy240
04-02-14, 11:17
I'd be more excited about a GOP Senate take over if the GOP leadership was more like Rand Paul, Ted Cruz and Mike Lee and LESS like John McCain, Mitch McConnell and John Cornyn.
-brickboy240
I honestly hope the dems take back the house and keep the senate and then hillary gets potus. It needs to get a lot worse before people will sit up and put in the effort to make it better.
This concept always frustrates the hell out of me... You would like for these people to run the country into the ground to prove a point. Yes, I know that a lot of the Republicans are bad as well, but saying, "screw it crash the car," because you need new tires is a terrible philosophy. This is no better.
The winning back of Congress will mean noting if the GOP leadership remains the same.
There's leadership in the GOP? ... damn... I missed that part..
One of the alphabet soup media talking heads also mentioned several months back that the GOP could take the Senate. Since that time I have noticed some stupid comments, I think a retirement or two, and you can basically bet at least one or two more will come out of the woodwork and simply made a few basic comments. anything off a short list.
A) Young women should not be allowed to have abortions.
B) Everyone should be armed with an assault weapon.
C) Any manner of remark that contains a "racial" word.
D) Any mention of the word "gay" but especially if it can be construed as negative.
That pretty much does it. The GOP will have to exert very little effort to continue to lose elections and to be honest, I think they actually like it that way. I know Boehner does. You can tell he loves his place. Harmless... a do nothing messenger boy. He's got the perfect political job. Big exposure and the ability to blame both sides... No way he wants to lose that. I don't think most of them really care, they are simply putting in time...
At this point, I think the county would be better served by massive exposure towards the likes of Harry Reid, Pelosi, Feinstein,,, just get rid of them... and Boehner too, get rid of him. Rather than a this team or that team, just some effort to get rid most powerful screw ups of all of them. In my opinion not a single one of them is worth a days pay for the average person working at a fast food joint. ... and Biden/Kerry ... what an international laugh they are.
Ted Cruz
What was that with Ted C and his Churchill performance the other day? I'm beginning to think there is some sort of drug in Washington that makes everyone that goes there lose touch with reality. I'm not sure if he was auditioning for a Broadway play or what? But that's the sort of thing the MSM eats up and SNL will turn into skit.
brickboy240
04-02-14, 13:08
SNL will turn ANYTHING anyone with an "R" after their name does into a skit. We cannot worry about that or how Jon Stewart will dice em up.
We win nothing by letting the media pick our candidate. Remember how McCain was their darling back when he was opposing Bush. However when he ran against the black guy...the shine came off the apple.
This is a huge problem for the GOP (...besides the fact that their leaders really do not want to win or reform anything) is that the left controls the messaging. When you control the messaging, you control the elections.
The left does not win because their ideas are better or their candidates are more appealing....but because they control the messaging. They won the last election with double digit unemployment, Benghazi, Fast & Furious and doubling the price of gas in 4 years. These things SHOULD get ANY leader tossed out on their ass but not so when you control the messaging and get get everyone riled up about Mitt putting the dog on the roof of a station wagon or being Mormon.
Belmont31R
04-02-14, 13:50
If Newtown happend in Dec 2008 we would have some type of ban right now...maybe all of it.
You abslutely want a GOP majority. My Father pulls this "I don't like any of them" crap and doesn't vote. Truth is my Dad doesn't really follow politics and really doesn't understand the stakes here. He just likes to be a contrarian.
If Obamacare doesn't get on track in the next 18 months, there is a good chance the GOP could get Congress and the White House. He also has time to F-up several other things which he seems good at and the media is growing tired of protecting him. But in the short term we need to stop a lame duck socialist Presdent. This is the most dangerous president in US history. There is no time for BS.
When I was younger I was a conservative idealist. I voted for Perot the first time. Big mistake.
The reality is you need to just go in the both a pull the lever for the worst of two evils. I hit the all GOP button even though I'm really 95% Libertarian. A conservative third party candidate will hand the socialist the keys to the car and accelerate out doom.
Why do libertarians owe the GOP their vote?
Hunter Rose
04-02-14, 14:52
Why do libertarians owe the GOP their vote?
Agreed, especially when the GOP establishment does everything in their power to limit the influence of politicians like Rand Paul, one of the few Republicans I can stomach.
The Democrats want to spend too much of my money and legislate their social/moral beliefs on me. The Republicans want to spend too much of my money and legislate their religious/moral beliefs on me. The GOP is not the lesser of two evils, it is the same evil with a different face to me. I honestly can't really discern much difference between the parties anymore.
This country needs an alternative third party movement that does not view compromise as a four letter word and practices fiscal responsibility. Sure it won't happen overnight, and may take a decade or two, but voting for the GOP because they're the "lesser of two evils" just slows it from happening even more. Lesser evil, by definition, is still evil, and I am sick of voting for it. Whoever Karl Rove's approved candidate is will not have my support.
Bolt_Overide
04-03-14, 09:20
This concept always frustrates the hell out of me... You would like for these people to run the country into the ground to prove a point. Yes, I know that a lot of the Republicans are bad as well, but saying, "screw it crash the car," because you need new tires is a terrible philosophy. This is no better.
No sir, you are dead wrong. I dont want to see the country go down in flames to be contrarian. I want to see our country get back to what it should be, and frankly with the state of our society, I see no other way to get there than for things to get so bad people are willing to turn off the god damn boob tube, log off face**** and put in some effort to fix what is wrong.
Belmont31R
04-03-14, 09:50
No sir, you are dead wrong. I dont want to see the country go down in flames to be contrarian. I want to see our country get back to what it should be, and frankly with the state of our society, I see no other way to get there than for things to get so bad people are willing to turn off the god damn boob tube, log off face**** and put in some effort to fix what is wrong.
With voting, those of us on the conservative and libertarian right don't have any support from the GOP which has grown increasingly big govt and liberal. Now they actively work against their own base and would rather work with the left. They'd rather see a democrat win an election than a conservative or heaven forbid a libertarian. I see no reason why I owe them my vote when they work against us 364 days a year other than the 1 day I'm expected to 'hold my nose' and vote for a RINO.
brickboy240
04-03-14, 10:01
The GOP is finished as a majority or winning party without the libertarian base. They are a permanent minority party at best.
-brickboy240
The GOP is finished as a majority or winning party without the libertarian base. They are a permanent minority party at best.
-brickboy240
This ^
Most of the low information but non dependant class voters that vote democrat do so becasue of social issues
brickboy240
04-03-14, 12:17
Yep..hating on homos and being pro life is not enough to keep mass interest in the GOP alive and viable as a major political power. What good is banning abortion if there are no jobs, gas is 5 bucks a gallon and our currency is not the reserve currency anymore?
The current GOP leadership and RNC biggies are status quo types and that is about it. They pretend to be interested in limited govt, cutting spending and other libertarian type views only long enough for an election cycle...thats it.
That will also be the GOP's downfall.
I am NOT even showing up that Tuesday in Nov 2016 if Christie or Jeb are on the ticket....why bother anymore?
I am NOT even showing up that Tuesday in Nov 2016 if Christie or Jeb are on the ticket....why bother anymore?
If either of them make it that far at least it will end all question the whole ordeal is a scam.
O.K. so the choices may not be to our liking, (so far...) but Hillary's better than Jeb?
BS!
I'm not affiliated with any party. I vote for whoever I think best.
Hillary blows!
Don't allow her to become our next President because you're disillusioned by the choices available.
She won't mind winning by default because the voters threw their hands in the air...
Why do libertarians owe the GOP their vote?
They dont "owe" anyone anything. However, it is mathmatical fact that abstaining or voting for some 3rd party candidate increases the chances that a left wing socialist will get elected.
Had Ross Perot not run it is very likely, almost certain, that Clinton would not have been elected.
Look at the recent VA election for govenor. A phoney Libertarian ran and may have took enough votes to put an anti gun guy in office.
Belmont31R
04-03-14, 16:08
They dont "owe" anyone anything. However, it is mathmatical fact that abstaining or voting for some 3rd party candidate increases the chances that a left wing socialist will get elected.
Had Ross Perot not run it is very likely, almost certain, that Clinton would not have been elected.
Look at the recent VA election for govenor. A phoney Libertarian ran and may have took enough votes to put an anti gun guy in office.
Voting for the GOP is helping a left wing socialist get into office.
Ask the GOP why they didn't support the Republican candidate in the VA race. They abandon anyone who isn't a leftist RINO.
Voting for the GOP is helping a left wing socialist get into office.
Ask the GOP why they didn't support the Republican candidate in the VA race. They abandon anyone who isn't a leftist RINO.
A little exaggeration here.
But the fact remain, no Perot, no 1994 Assault Weapons Ban ;)
Belmont31R
04-03-14, 18:33
A little exaggeration here.
But the fact remain, no Perot, no 1994 Assault Weapons Ban ;)
Several prominent Republicans supported the ban. GWB said he'd sign an extension if it came across his desk. Bush senior signed off on import bans.
Several prominent Republicans supported the ban. GWB said he'd sign an extension if it came across his desk. Bush senior signed off on import bans.
Sorry to introduce a tangent.
Question is, would Clinton have been elected without Perot, and would the country have been better off with Bush Sr than Clinton ?
Belmont31R
04-03-14, 19:19
Sorry to introduce a tangent.
Question is, would Clinton have been elected without Perot, and would the country have been better off with Bush Sr than Clinton ?
That wasn't my point. The GOP has proven themselves to support gun control, and are at best neutral on the 2A. On spending and general governance, they're at best slightly not as bad. But they're still socialists.
I won't vote for either one of them. What you're saying is akin to telling an Italian he should be happy they got Mussolini because he wasn't as bad as Hitler.
OK, so what do we do that will actually get us a positive result, and reliably? There has got to be a better answer than damned if you do, damned if you don't.
O.K. so the choices may not be to our liking, (so far...) but Hillary's better than Jeb?
BS!
I'm not affiliated with any party. I vote for whoever I think best.
Hillary blows!
Don't allow her to become our next President because you're disillusioned by the choices available.
She won't mind winning by default because the voters threw their hands in the air...
Seems as though that would put the ball squarely in the court of Republican primary voters, would it not? Vote like a retard for "electability" (God, I despise that term) or vote your conscience. If you eliminated the former the latter would NEVER give us a Christie or Jeb Bush.
Belmont31R
04-03-14, 23:01
Seems as though that would put the ball squarely in the court of Republican primary voters, would it not? Vote like a retard for "electability" (God, I despise that term) or vote your conscience. If you eliminated the former the latter would NEVER give us a Christie or Jeb Bush.
There is a reason they get votes in the farmer welfare and liberal N/E states first. This to ensure a candidate who doesn't play the game early on aren't electable.
Please don't misunderstand.
I don't want an establishment GOP congress and I really don't want a DEM congress.
The crux of my post was to point out the fallacy of believing that an establishment GOP congress would be as good as a libertarian congress that actually respects liberty and represents the people.
Well, at least you didn't say that the two parties were identical. I'm still a little fuzzy on why you want the party that sucks more to retain control of the Senate.
Eurodriver
04-07-14, 05:51
Seems as though that would put the ball squarely in the court of Republican primary voters, would it not? Vote like a retard for "electability" (God, I despise that term) or vote your conscience. If you eliminated the former the latter would NEVER give us a Christie or Jeb Bush.
If it were legal, I would punch every single "Electability" primary voter I saw right in the face.
You'd think they would have learned after Dole, McCain, and Romney. Once when I was drunk and bored, I searched the forum for those members and sent a few of them nasty PMs. The election had been over for at least 6 months at that time.
I really hate them.
Outlander Systems
04-07-14, 06:44
If it were legal, I would punch every single "Electability" primary voter I saw right in the face.
You'd think they would have learned after Dole, McCain, and Romney. Once when I was drunk and bored, I searched the forum for those members and sent a few of them nasty PMs. The election had been over for at least 6 months at that time.
I really hate them.
Yuuuuuup.
I'm pretty burned out on Romneys, Bushes, and McCains of the GOP.
I can say in the 15 years I've been eligible to vote, I have NEVER voted for a "lesser of two evils".
If the GOP wants me to support their sorry asses, they'd better push a Cruz, or a Paul. When they put their full weight behind some spineless half wit "moderate", they are essentially begging me to vote third party.
A shit sammich is still a shit sammich, whether it's got bacon on it or not.
Yuuuuuup.
I'm pretty burned out on Romneys, Bushes, and McCains of the GOP.
I can say in the 15 years I've been eligible to vote, I have NEVER voted for a "lesser of two evils".
If the GOP wants me to support their sorry asses, they'd better push a Cruz, or a Paul. When they put their full weight behind some spineless half wit "moderate", they are essentially begging me to vote third party.
A shit sammich is still a shit sammich, whether it's got bacon on it or not.The question that comes to my mind is who is gaming the system as such that they don't mind winning or losing, how that they want to run Doles, McCains, etc. and when those lose they keep their jobs, when they don't keep their promises they keep their jobs, etc.
montanadave
04-07-14, 09:12
The question that comes to my mind is who is gaming the system as such that they don't mind winning or losing, how that they want to run Doles, McCains, etc. and when those lose they keep their jobs, when they don't keep their promises they keep their jobs, etc.
Who is gaming the system? It's not a mystery. Look at the people, corporations, and organizations spending billions of dollars to put their guy in office.
As Deep Throat said, "Follow the money."
We keep talking about them in the abstract like that but never actually doing anything about it. Never addressing individuals as individuals and correcting the problem.
brickboy240
04-07-14, 11:30
Well...some of us DID do something about it. We replaced outgoing RINO Kay Bailey Hutchison with Ted Cruz.
Texans also tried to replace RINO John Cornyn with a more TEA Party/Libertarian sort but it did not work. Thats ok...we're not going to win every time but eventually we will replace the RINO Cornyn as well.
We did not get to this type of leadership in the GOP overnight...you cannot expect us to remove this mindset in one or two election cycles. However, Ted Cruz's winning over a very well funded RINO establishment type shows that it CAN be done...even when the opponent is well known and well financed.
This same opponent (current TX Lt Governor, David Dewhurst) is also in a run off to keep his Lt Governor seat and will likely lose to Dan Patrick. Patrick is another TEA Party type that was better funded than Cruz was against Dewhurst but still goes to show that the well funded establishment types are certainly not bullet proof.
-brickboy240
Place my bet... The majority of the voters make their voting decision by name recognition. Pushing the lever is doing the duty. Mark my words, the incumbents will get reelected as usual. I hope I am proven wrong but the luciferians have the government sewn up. George Bushes one world order ring a bell to anyone?
Place my bet... The majority of the voters make their voting decision by name recognition. Pushing the lever is doing the duty. Mark my words, the incumbents will get reelected as usual. I hope I am proven wrong but the luciferians have the government sewn up. George Bushes one world order ring a bell to anyone?
Go back one post and read what brickboy240 wrote.
What he didn't say was the incumbent (who also lost to Ted Cruz) was a distant second in the primary. We've (TX) started bumping one or two of them off every election cycle.
Rome wasn't built in a day....or destroyed in one, either...
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