View Full Version : Coming Crash in Ammo Prices
I'm curious to see how future scares, both from inside or outside the industry, can continue to affect prices being that most of the ammo bought in the last 2 years is never going to be shot up.
http://ammoheads.com/coming-crash-ammunition-prices/
ramairthree
06-08-14, 09:44
I am glad to see pre-panic prices.
If a lot of the jump on the band wagon gun and ammo buyers get into shooting-
they will still have baseline needs.
Take a kid with you to one pistol match and one three gun a month,
that's 500 pistol, a hundred shotgun, and a couple hundred rifle rounds right there.
Classes are all the rage now,
if someone does one a year that's another thousand rounds.
Sure, many may have cut back a little during the shortage,
but there are a ton of new gun owners. Many will want to go to classes or start doing matches.
The types of gun owners mentioned are a small segment of overall gun owners. There were people buying up ammo and magazines that have never shot more than 100 round a year. There are probably tens of thousand of gun owners sitting on more ammo than they will ever shoot in their lifetime.
Prices going back to where they should be isn't a crash. The guy's making up a lot of stuff as he goes along. There's not going to be a sudden massive drop in demand causing prices to tank. Prices were high before Sandy Hook. Plenty of people like me who were stocked up haven't bought ammo in years waiting for prices to return to something sensible. Our stash is getting low. All the people just buying enough to keep shooting are going to be looking to put some back. I'd like to see that $10/500 .22 but it's not happening.
Grand58742
06-08-14, 12:34
I'd like to see that $10/500 .22 but it's not happening.
I'd just like to see bulk pack .22 ammo available on shelves for more than seven minutes as it is.
Prices going back to where they should be isn't a crash. The guy's making up a lot of stuff as he goes along. There's not going to be a sudden massive drop in demand causing prices to tank. Prices were high before Sandy Hook. Plenty of people like me who were stocked up haven't bought ammo in years waiting for prices to return to something sensible. Our stash is getting low. All the people just buying enough to keep shooting are going to be looking to put some back. I'd like to see that $10/500 .22 but it's not happening.
Right on the money. We will be lucky to see pre-2012 prices ever again. In addition to the above good points, inflation continues to gnaw away at the purchasing value of the dollar. And, ammo manufacturers have about an 18 month backlog for existing orders.
The article sounds great. I would love it if it had anything at all to do with reality. The shelves in my WalMart still look the same as they have for years. Empty. Plenty of 12ga. birdshot. Lots of .300Win Mag. If there is ever any .223 or 5.56, its selling for .60 cents a round or more. That's $18 to empty ONE 30 round mag. Never any .22lr at all... 9mm is now $16-$18 for a box of 50.
I would sure like to see some of what was stated actually happen. I'm ready to replenish and stock up at any time.
CleverNickname
06-08-14, 22:08
Right on the money. We will be lucky to see pre-2012 prices ever again. In addition to the above good points, inflation continues to gnaw away at the purchasing value of the dollar. And, ammo manufacturers have about an 18 month backlog for existing orders.
While I'm sure there is a large backlog right now, backlogs can disappear pretty quickly once demand drops off and vendors start canceling backorders. This happened in the gun market and I won't be surprised when it happens in the ammo market.
SomeOtherGuy
06-08-14, 22:16
Combination of rapidly dropping base metal prices (copper and lead) plus the gradual ending of a panic - yeah, I can easily see ammo prices dropping substantially. I've already seen 5.56 prices go back to only 10-15% above where they were 2-3 years ago, at my preferred online retailers. .22 rimfire prices went utterly insane and I don't think it's hard to imagine them going back to $12-15 per brick of 500. Another panic could derail a price drop, but as long as we don't get one - and I think we've had so many that the panic effect is starting to wear off - I can see prices returning to something much lower.
I'll still be reloading pistol ammo because factory will never get that cheap.
I have been getting at least 3 emails a week from various vendors advertising "ammo sales" and with every week the price drops.
The main difference between this and other commodities is that while supply will increase, demand may not. Remember that people shooting 1000 rounds a month in training or competition are a small part of the shooting community. Many people that horded ammo may never consume all they bought or it may take years.
My buddy bought 1000 rounds of 5.56 and 9mm right when prices got real low in early 2012. He hasn't shot any of it. He has a decent gun collection and I don't think he has shot 1000 rounds of ammo in his entire life.
Man... walk into Cabelas, and you'll see a SHIT TON of ammo not selling at inflated prices. More XM193 than I've ever seen, and no one is looking at it.
brickboy240
06-09-14, 10:37
What sucks is that now...all the calibers that usually disappear in a panic are the ONLY ones on the shelves. (minus 22LR)
I see tons of 9mm, 223, 308 and 7.62x39 but almost no 30-06, 22-250, 243 or 270!
It is as if the ammo makers stopped making the hunting rounds to focus on 223, 308 and 9mm.
I have considered ditching my 22-250 bolt gun for one in 223 because you can find tons of 223 but no 22-250 anywhere. 243 is almost as bad.
22LR? It is still very spotty and 22WMR is non existent.
-brickboy240
What sucks is that now...all the calibers that usually disappear in a panic are the ONLY ones on the shelves. (minus 22LR)
I see tons of 9mm, 223, 308 and 7.62x39 but almost no 30-06, 22-250, 243 or 270!
It is as if the ammo makers stopped making the hunting rounds to focus on 223, 308 and 9mm.
I have considered ditching my 22-250 bolt gun for one in 223 because you can find tons of 223 but no 22-250 anywhere. 243 is almost as bad.
22LR? It is still very spotty and 22WMR is non existent.
-brickboy240
What part of Houston are you in? I drop by the Academy at 290/1960 once a week and have seen 30-06, 243, & 270 each time.
Grand58742
06-09-14, 15:05
What sucks is that now...all the calibers that usually disappear in a panic are the ONLY ones on the shelves. (minus 22LR)
I see tons of 9mm, 223, 308 and 7.62x39 but almost no 30-06, 22-250, 243 or 270!
It is as if the ammo makers stopped making the hunting rounds to focus on 223, 308 and 9mm.
I have considered ditching my 22-250 bolt gun for one in 223 because you can find tons of 223 but no 22-250 anywhere. 243 is almost as bad.
22LR? It is still very spotty and 22WMR is non existent.
-brickboy240
I think that's regional. The shops in OK have plenty of everything except .22. And even have a decent supply of .22 Mag.
ramairthree
06-09-14, 15:27
What sucks is that now...all the calibers that usually disappear in a panic are the ONLY ones on the shelves. (minus 22LR)
I see tons of 9mm, 223, 308 and 7.62x39 but almost no 30-06, 22-250, 243 or 270!
It is as if the ammo makers stopped making the hunting rounds to focus on 223, 308 and 9mm.
I have considered ditching my 22-250 bolt gun for one in 223 because you can find tons of 223 but no 22-250 anywhere. 243 is almost as bad.
22LR? It is still very spotty and 22WMR is non existent.
-brickboy240
Yeah,
I have to wait for special runs of .225 Winchester and .22 WRF, plus I have a couple of 10mm.
Only in a dream would I ever see cheap bulk packs of those at Walmart.
I'll still be reloading pistol ammo because factory will never get that cheap.
I remember back somewhere around 2004-2006(?) when aluminum Blazer 9MM was going for $4 per box of 50 at Academy. I knew guys who were buying it by the pallet. I was loading better ammo for about that price, but I couldn't load it cheaper so I was buying it for practice ammo.
As for all the hoarding, it sucks for finding stuff but I'm kinda glad. If the S ever HTF, that's a whole lot more people who can fend for themselves. :)
I'm curious to see how future scares, both from inside or outside the industry, can continue to affect prices being that most of the ammo bought in the last 2 years is never going to be shot up.
http://ammoheads.com/coming-crash-ammunition-prices/
Ammo is still a PITA. I looked at several ammo distributors that we buy .22/.22MAG and .17HMR from and they had nothing. Went to Cabelas today to find .17HMR and there was nothing.
As a Magtech/S&B is MILLIONS of rounds behind and I still have to beg to get my OLD PO's filled.
With Mrs. Clinton warming up the war machine soon, I don't imagine we will see the ammo we want (.22, 9mm and 5.56) to really "crash."
C4
brickboy240
06-09-14, 16:52
....yeeeaaah...you will see a crash in ammo prices about the time you see Obama get impeached!
-brickboy240
My local Walmart is having clearance sales on guns and some ammo, including 5.56. Not that the ammo prices are on the floor, but a sale on ammo is remarkable.
My local Walmart is having clearance sales on guns and some ammo, including 5.56. Not that the ammo prices are on the floor, but a sale on ammo is remarkable.
Just getting ready to post the same thing from here. Wal mart is "Rolling back" prices on bulk ammo (Dropped one case of .223 $20) and more. .308 is on clearance.
Ammo is still a PITA. I looked at several ammo distributors that we buy .22/.22MAG and .17HMR from and they had nothing. Went to Cabelas today to find .17HMR and there was nothing.
As a Magtech/S&B is MILLIONS of rounds behind and I still have to beg to get my OLD PO's filled.
With Mrs. Clinton warming up the war machine soon, I don't imagine we will see the ammo we want (.22, 9mm and 5.56) to really "crash."
C4
I guess "crash" is relative being how high the prices went, but even with Hillary on the way I don't no how much that can effect ammo demand. Maybe ARs and mags but with the m4carbine.net type crowd being the only people shooting up their supply, the hoarders should be close to horded out. I'm thinking ammo will get down to below where it was late 2011 (When I once bought 500 rnds of xm193 for $135)
With 99% of the competition shooters I know reloading and most gun owners thinking 300 rnds is "stocked up" I cant see how demand can increase that much. All you really have is the non reloading training crowd.
....yeeeaaah...you will see a crash in ammo prices about the time you see Obama get impeached!
-brickboy240
I doubt if he will get impeached.
....I cant see how demand can increase that much. All you really have is the non reloading training crowd.
There are some crazy ass hoarders out there. And not so crazy hoarders out there as well as the ammo flippers buying what they can then trying to sell it at a profit. There is still a very strong demand for most things.
I am seeing more 9mm and .223/5.56 at Wally World....Not shit for .22.... :(
PA PATRIOT
06-10-14, 09:54
Wife just called me from Wal-Mart to advise me that the store just placed price "RollBacks" on most of the ammo they sell. Tula was 20% off, Federal/American Eagle 15% off but the best was Federals Fusion .223 62 gr. SP was clearance at $9.97 a box.
That's funny that your wife is calling in ammo deals.
polydeuces
06-10-14, 10:00
Anyone looking for .22, CDNN has a bunch for sale at almost normal price.
Good luck.
Eurodriver
06-10-14, 10:15
Maybe I'm fortunate, but my LGS has .22LR for half that CDNN price and no shipping.
I am still waiting for the prices to drop in my area. The local stores have most calibers available, but the prices are still steep. Finding .22LR is still next to impossible.
PA PATRIOT
06-10-14, 11:38
That's funny that your wife is calling in ammo deals.
Since my wife shoots up a lot of my reserve, she can help out in locating some.
Wife just called me from Wal-Mart to advise me that the store just placed price "RollBacks" on most of the ammo they sell. Tula was 20% off, Federal/American Eagle 15% off but the best was Federals Fusion .223 62 gr. SP was clearance at $9.97 a box.Glad you guys are finding rollbacks. I ran up to that hellhole after seeing your post. No luck.
Targetsports has XM193 for $350 shipped.. Not too shabby...
Since my wife shoots up a lot of my reserve, she can help out in locating some.
Make here reload for you! :sarcastic:
What sucks is that now...all the calibers that usually disappear in a panic are the ONLY ones on the shelves. (minus 22LR)
I see tons of 9mm, 223, 308 and 7.62x39 but almost no 30-06, 22-250, 243 or 270!
It is as if the ammo makers stopped making the hunting rounds to focus on 223, 308 and 9mm.Because they always do that. .30-06, .270, etc. have only a seasonal interest for the most part so the factories make seasonal runs of them. They're not being replaced at the very moment so whatever retailers have is what they're going to get until the next batch is made--it's only in the last year or so that the backstock has been depleted so it's the only time we've noticed in recent years. (Worked at a few gun shops so I know that's what's going on.)
I have considered ditching my 22-250 bolt gun for one in 223 because you can find tons of 223 but no 22-250 anywhere. 243 is almost as bad..22-250 and .243 are caliber I'd never even think of owning and not reloading for. The cost of ammo versus savings of loading your own is enough to justify it to the point it's an IQ test rather than a decision. No way in hell would I pay retail for that ammo. Dies pay for themselves in the cost difference within less than 100 rounds, and since those are varminters you EASILY shoot 10-20x more than just your ten rounds and done for the year deer guns.
And why drive to a store to get ammo when you can make it when you want or need it? Let alone getting EXACTLY the right one EXACTLY when and where you want it...playing the lottery on that is just plain stupid. I watched for a year and a half people come into a store begging for EXACTLY the SINGLE caliber, SINGLE manufacturer, and SINGLE load they wanted EVERY TIME because their rifle was already sighted in for it, and just expecting me to have that on the spot every time, then leaving and driving home when it wasn't there at the time. It HAD to be 7-08, HAD to 160 grain, HAD to be Remington. Hornady no good, Winchester no good. Or it just HAD to be .243 85 grain V-max. 80 no good. 90 no good. Winchester no good. All or nothing, because they bought a box last year or the year before--not 5 boxes, not 10, ONE, expecting its replacement to be right there right where and when they're looking for it. Basically that's expecting to win the lottery on demand, and it's MY fault somehow it's not there. Not paying attention, were they? All that aggravation could be saved by paying for a box of 100 bullets to load yourself for the price of a box of 20 loaded rounds, nobody gets mad and nobody looks stupider than a donkey on peyote.
Just got this in an email saying ".556 & .223 Below Cost!" This is a bi-weekly occurrence
http://enews.natchezss.com/q/fxbu7XBVEYl9NERNKNC3xiYRB1eM-kmMMksVfjfB3IZiJ07QL7EwMz6lc
I think the notion of ammo prices crashing are now over.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/06/10/obama-reveals-his-biggest-frustration-as-president-the-country-has-to-do-some-soul-searching-about-this/
POTUS:
“You know, the United States does not have a monopoly on crazy people. It’s not the only country that has psychosis. And yet, we kill each other in these mass shootings at rates that are exponentially higher than any place else,” Obama said, according to BuzzFeed. “Well, what’s the difference? The difference is, is that these guys can stack up a bunch of ammunition in their houses and that’s sort of par for the course.”
C4
Wife just called me from Wal-Mart to advise me that the store just placed price "RollBacks" on most of the ammo they sell. Tula was 20% off, Federal/American Eagle 15% off but the best was Federals Fusion .223 62 gr. SP was clearance at $9.97 a box.
I would have cleared the shelves of that one!
Eurodriver
06-11-14, 09:10
The bottom line is anyone who is not buying ammo at exponential rates right now is a complete idiot. After what happened in Dec 2012 there will be no excuse for the cries of "he's hoarding ammo" next time.
In March of 2013 I sold 30 PMAGs loaded with 28 rounds of M855 each for $3,000 to some sucker on Armslist. I more than doubled my money. Buying ammo right now is win-win. It won't get much cheaper than it is now, but if it somehow does then it will benefit everyone and if it gets more expensive than you can always sell it to the crybabies who failed to act when prices were low.
Doc Safari
06-11-14, 09:21
I think the notion of ammo prices crashing are now over.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/06/10/obama-reveals-his-biggest-frustration-as-president-the-country-has-to-do-some-soul-searching-about-this/
POTUS:
C4
Given his famous comments about trying to do gun control measures "under the radar", I wonder what he's privately scheming concerning ammo?
Any ideas?
Given his famous comments about trying to do gun control measures "under the radar", I wonder what he's privately scheming concerning ammo?
Any ideas?
I'm surprised he hasn't banned the Russian ammo yet. Or all imported ammo if you get down to it. WTF is anyone going to do about it? Lindsey Graham going to write him a nasty letter.
I'm surprised he hasn't banned the Russian ammo yet.
That Kenyan and it nut lickers are too busy fighting all the scandal fires to be advancing piss poor policy/agenda right now.
Grand58742
06-11-14, 10:25
That Kenyan and it nut lickers are too busy fighting all the scandal fires to be advancing piss poor policy/agenda right now.
There's always time to advance a bad agenda...
Given his famous comments about trying to do gun control measures "under the radar", I wonder what he's privately scheming concerning ammo?
Any ideas?
I'd look to tobacco as example, basically tax it until it is no longer affordable. Executive order to ban importation of Ammo.
The 'bulk' statement in that article made me think a limit on shipping it, or making not shippable. Much like alcohol I would think?
Its the ATF, they have alcohol and tobacco pretty well locked down, I would simply expect to see them apply the same methods to Ammunition.
BTW, PSA has cheaper ammo prices than in a long time. Blazer brass 9mm @ 12.99$ a box, better prices than seen in a while.
I'm surprised he hasn't banned the Russian ammo yet. Or all imported ammo if you get down to it. WTF is anyone going to do about it? Lindsey Graham going to write him a nasty letter.
5.45x39 7N6 is now verboten by the BATFE:
https://www.m4carbine.net/showthread.php?150184-5-45x39-7N6-is-now-Banned-from-Import
Man! Once again I popped into Glendale, AZ's Cabelas, and just like last time, there is more XM193 than I've ever seen in one spot. There's like 1500 rounds on 3 shelves.... not to mention the PMC, XTAC, etc. (all 9.99 per box or more)
There must be over 5k in .223/556 and no one was giving it a sniff.
I would have cleared the shelves of that one!
Oh sorry. Walmart's policy is that you can only buy 3 boxes per 24 hour period. This is to stop people from complaining and make everyone happy.
I have yet to run into anyone happy about it...
ForTehNguyen
08-22-14, 15:47
big price reduction in Wolf .223 back. $250 shipped for 1k
http://www.aimsurplus.com/product.aspx?groupid=1652&name=WPA+(WOLF)+.223+55grn+FMJ&utm_source=AIM+Surplus+Main+List&utm_campaign=a1976c0414-08222014&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6870497a6a-a1976c0414-17849049
CBC 5.56 77gr. MK262 clone.
60cents a round vs. ~80cents from Grant (CBC) and Wideners (IMI)
The big kicker is they only charged me 5$ shipping on what would normally be 45-60$ shipping. I think they screwed up something in their system, because no matter how much you add to your cart shipping stays at 5$.
http://palmettostatearmory.com/index.php/cbc-5-56mm-nato-77gr-otm-hpbt-ammunition-50rds-cbc556c.html
CBC 5.56 77gr. MK262 clone.
60cents a round vs. ~80cents from Grant (CBC)
Check again. Grant is selling 1,000 rounds for $600.
http://www.gandrtactical.com/cgi-bin/commerce.cgi?preadd=action&key=CBC556C&reference=/cgi-bin/commerce.cgi%3Fsearch%3Daction%26keywords%3Dammo%26searchstart%3D0%26template%3DPDGCommTemplates/FullNav/SearchResult.html
Check again. Grant is selling 1,000 rounds for $600.
http://www.gandrtactical.com/cgi-bin/commerce.cgi?preadd=action&key=CBC556C&reference=/cgi-bin/commerce.cgi%3Fsearch%3Daction%26keywords%3Dammo%26searchstart%3D0%26template%3DPDGCommTemplates/FullNav/SearchResult.html
That's awesome news! It's great to see this ammo so available and at such great prices. When I bought a case from grant it was 799$, hopefully these new prices are here to stay. Great thing for the shooting community!
CBC 5.56 77gr. MK262 clone.
60cents a round vs. ~80cents from Grant (CBC) and Wideners (IMI)
The big kicker is they only charged me 5$ shipping on what would normally be 45-60$ shipping. I think they screwed up something in their system, because no matter how much you add to your cart shipping stays at 5$.
http://palmettostatearmory.com/index.php/cbc-5-56mm-nato-77gr-otm-hpbt-ammunition-50rds-cbc556c.html
Thanks bud, I have been eyeballing these waiting for a free shipping promo but 5$ works.
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