View Full Version : With every boom comes a bust
It would seem that the great ammo shortage is coming to an end. Perhaps heralded by AR manufacturers offering credit plans to buy new rifles, it would seem ammo sales are poised for a resounding and sickening bottoming out, like a rotten melon striking the ground at terminal velocity. Kept in check only by the uninformed public's myopic purchasing at the bitter end. Recently I witnessed cases of 223 at 7.99 per box "on sale" at Cabelas going nowhere. Then bought 500 rds of 22lr for 21.00 at a LGS. One online auction site shows 1,185 offerings of 22lr (somewhere near 1 million rounds) most with no bids. For the retirees that were subsidizing retirements (no one blames you it was good while it lasted I'm sure) with this source you may want to shift back to the hedge fund market and realize that 10 cents per round is a trifle ridiculous once the supply comes back. Some online wholesalers have 223 back at 315.00 per 1000. The bust has just begun, the country has collectively blown their load and the dogs have come to collect the leavings of the broke and misguided purchases of the panic driven masses. Just like Napoleon's retreat from Moscow the dysentery and wasting will be soon besetting the industry. Barring another manufactured crisis (can't let a good one go to waste) this is only the beginning. As Warren Buffet is fond of saying buy when everyone is running away and sell when they are running back. Hope everyone is seeing some relief and enjoying it.
It would seem that the great ammo shortage is coming to an end. Perhaps heralded by AR manufacturers offering credit plans to buy new rifles, it would seem ammo sales are poised for a resounding and sickening bottoming out, like a rotten melon striking the ground at terminal velocity. Kept in check only by the uninformed public's myopic purchasing at the bitter end. Recently I witnessed cases of 223 at 7.99 per box "on sale" at Cabelas going nowhere. Then bought 500 rds of 22lr for 21.00 at a LGS. One online auction site shows 1,185 offerings of 22lr (somewhere near 1 million rounds) most with no bids. For the retirees that were subsidizing retirements (no one blames you it was good while it lasted I'm sure) with this source you may want to shift back to the hedge fund market and realize that 10 cents per round is a trifle ridiculous once the supply comes back. Some online wholesalers have 223 back at 315.00 per 1000. The bust has just begun, the country has collectively blown their load and the dogs have come to collect the leavings of the broke and misguided purchases of the panic driven masses. Just like Napoleon's retreat from Moscow the dysentery and wasting will be soon besetting the industry. Barring another manufactured crisis (can't let a good one go to waste) this is only the beginning. As Warren Buffet is fond of saying buy when everyone is running away and sell when they are running back. Hope everyone is seeing some relief and enjoying it.
Powder,
Still looking for reliable sources of various brands of powder. Once that comes back all will be well. You can now get brass, primers, and projectiles pretty easily but pistol powder is still scarce and many brands of popular rifle is still slow to come back. Once I can go buy H110, Clays, HP38, Varget, and 1680 whenever I want it again then I'll be a lot happier.
Powder,
Still looking for reliable sources of various brands of powder. Once that comes back all will be well. You can now get brass, primers, and projectiles pretty easily but pistol powder is still scarce and many brands of popular rifle is still slow to come back. Once I can go buy H110, Clays, HP38, Varget, and 1680 whenever I want it again then I'll be a lot happier.
Have you tried Gene Sears in Oklahoma? They have had a decent amount of powder recently.
Powder,
Still looking for reliable sources of various brands of powder. Once that comes back all will be well. You can now get brass, primers, and projectiles pretty easily but pistol powder is still scarce and many brands of popular rifle is still slow to come back. Once I can go buy H110, Clays, HP38, Varget, and 1680 whenever I want it again then I'll be a lot happier.
My local shop got an 8#er of H110 yesterday, so it's coming back around.
... Then bought 500 rds of 22lr for 21.00 at a LGS. One online auction site shows 1,185 offerings of 22lr (somewhere near 1 million rounds) most with no bids...
The "shortage" isn't over yet — not by a long shot.
.22lr is still in short supply, and as far as I'm concerned it will be until I can buy as much as I want from regular online retailers (Midway? Brownell's?) at regular prices.
You can now get brass, primers, and projectiles pretty easily...
Huh? I can't even backorder LRPs at regular online retailers.
What's "easily"? When things were "normal" (pre-BHO), I would buy primers and various powders all from one vender to save on HazMat fees. Now I think I'm lucky if I find a vendor accepting backorders for powder and primers...
The "shortage" isn't over yet — not by a long shot.
.22lr is still in short supply, and as far as I'm concerned it will be until I can buy as much as I want from regular online retailers (Midway? Brownell's?) at regular prices.
Huh? I can't even backorder LRPs at regular online retailers.
What's "easily"? When things were "normal" (pre-BHO), I would buy primers and various powders all from one vender to save on HazMat fees. Now I think I'm lucky if I find a vendor accepting backorders for powder and primers...
I concur with the .22lr statement. While I have found .22lr at "normal" pricing, picked up some Remington Tunderbolt for 2.5 cents a round about a month ago, I still can't decide, "Oh, I want to go try to burn the barrel out of my 10/22 and buy five bricks for ~$110 and head to the range.
As far as primers. One LSG I frequent seems to have a good stock of primers, though since I don't currently reload I don't pay attention to them. Their powder selection is short though. Have been thinking about investing in some primers and powder though, just buying it, and putting it away for a rainy day, or the next panic. Or perhaps for when I do decide to start reloading.
Sigh, maybe I'll start doing some research come tomorrow and try to figure out what I need.
Primers have been pretty easy to get for a while. They're full retail price, but you can get them.
Powder is just starting to pop up a little. I'd say another full year before prices and inventories normalize.
Concur with the .22lr being a bitch to find at the right price. Primers and some powders are in good supply if not (ever ) going back to normal.
Primers have been pretty easy to get for a while. They're full retail price, but you can get them...
Primers and some powders are in good supply if not (ever ) going back to normal.
Where?!
I don't want to hijack this thread, and I know there's a "Where can I find" thread elsewhere, but I can't find CCI #34s in stock anywhere, and most of my regular online sources won't even let me backorder...
Well... I can usually find A primer in any of the 4 categories (Large/Small - Rifle/Pistol) by dropping in at Cabelas or looking at Midway, Grafs, etc.
Now getting a SPECIFIC flavor of primer might not be so easy. It took us a while to score some 210M primers... For God knows what reason Match Large Rifle were a little work to scare up.
Well... I can usually find A primer in any of the 4 categories (Large/Small - Rifle/Pistol) by dropping in at Cabelas or looking at Midway, Grafs, etc.
This is part of my problem... the next Cabela's is a 7 hour drive.
Now getting a SPECIFIC flavor of primer might not be so easy...
This is my point... back in the good old days (rocking my chair), we could easily find specific flavors, in fact we could match specific flavors of primers to specific flavors of powder to save on shipping and HazMat.
When it's like that again, then we can talk about the shortage coming to an end...
Yeah.. we're still a year out from being able to get whatever you want I guess. You can, however, get enough to make your gun go bang.
Doc Safari
07-28-14, 11:42
I don't believe there is a shortage of twenty-two.
Speculators are still scarfing it up as fast as Wal-Mart gets it so they can resell it at the gun shows.
I don't believe there is a shortage of twenty-two.
Yep. It's not a shortage of .22 LR. It's an abundance of fukking RETARDS.
Where?!
I don't want to hijack this thread, and I know there's a "Where can I find" thread elsewhere, but I can't find CCI #34s in stock anywhere, and most of my regular online sources won't even let me backorder...
I can walk into no less than 4 mom & pop stores right this very minute & purchase virtually any primer right now. It's been that way for months. Russian primers may be slightly harder but either Midway or Wideners has them. Same with bulk projos. Powder is a little harder to get but not impossible. The price of it just needs to come down to last years. I personally consider the shortage over. At least for anything that I need.
Yep. It's not a shortage of .22 LR. It's an abundance of fukking RETARDS.
This...Although I would point out that some of those "cognitively challenged" people are the ass clowns paying the higher prices which perpetuates the situation.
Yep. I remember the last panic... although not nearly the size of this one... Rimfire was off the shelves too. I don't get it....
If ammo availability/cost is so tough that all I have to shoot is rimfire, I'll just stay home.
If I had to guess why rimfire is in higher demand it would be that more of the ones being sold are more conducive to higher round count range sessions, biggest example the M&P 15/22. Plus the Barackalypse scares 1 & 2 plus the rest of the years between are cumulative on top of all other guns sold before, so all that expanded demand with near zero expansion of production facilities.
If anyone needs Remington .22LR subsonic, I know a place that has plenty. EDIT: OOS.
Yep. It's not a shortage of .22 LR. It's an abundance of fukking RETARDS.
Yes. This is and oppurtunity, I know. But dammit, how long is this shit going to go on? As long as there are people to buy it, it will continue. Quit feeding the troll and it will go away.
I really need some .22lr but I am not paying troll prices...
Raven Armament
07-30-14, 05:35
Rimfire will be back to normal by year's end. The industry will go through the same cleansing of dealers and businesses it did after the first Obama surge in 2008-2009. Maybe a wholesaler or two. Business models will shift, there will be layoffs, and I don't think the end of the summer slump will save anyone from failing. The race to the bottom will continue for a while.
BuzzinSATX
07-30-14, 07:11
Rimfire will be back to normal by year's end. The industry will go through the same cleansing of dealers and businesses it did after the first Obama surge in 2008-2009. Maybe a wholesaler or two. Business models will shift, there will be layoffs, and I don't think the end of the summer slump will save anyone from failing. The race to the bottom will continue for a while.
This makes the most sense, based on historical economic models.
All the stories about the .22 manufacturers putting on more shifts, adding capacity, etc., is a behemoth that will not stop on a dime, and at some point, we'll see the stores flooded with pallets of .22 bricks, but I have not seen this yet.
What has been noticeably missing, IMO, is the good deals of .22 online.
The first place I saw the other shortage stuff (7.62/.223/9MM, AR rifles and components, high cap mags) start to come back was online. Before, you could not find .22 online, or if you did, it was high price target or low velocity or this tracer rounds.
Now, you can now get .22 online easily but not cheaply. When I can go online and find .22 for under $0.06 a round consistently, I think that will be the sign things are setting the new normal. And I suspect we'll see sales at some point where .22 will be around .04 per round...
Howdy,
This makes the most sense, based on historical economic models.
All the stories about the .22 manufacturers putting on more shifts, adding capacity, etc., is a behemoth that will not stop on a dime, and at some point, we'll see the stores flooded with pallets of .22 bricks, but I have not seen this yet.
What has been noticeably missing, IMO, is the good deals of .22 online.
The first place I saw the other shortage stuff (7.62/.223/9MM, AR rifles and components, high cap mags) start to come back was online. Before, you could not find .22 online, or if you did, it was high price target or low velocity or this tracer rounds.
Now, you can now get .22 online easily but not cheaply. When I can go online and find .22 for under $0.06 a round consistently, I think that will be the sign things are setting the new normal. And I suspect we'll see sales at some point where .22 will be around .04 per round...
.22 online? Go here:
http://www.gunbot.net/ammo/rimfire/22lr/
There isn't a shortage, but boy, is it high! I still have bulk boxes that I bought in '07-'08 plus more that I've bought in '09 so I'm set.
Heck, I've got a 500rd carton ( 10-50rd boxes ) of Federal Lightenings that I paid $8.88. Hard to pay $70.00 for a new box when I have plenty.
In '07 I was about 99.999999% positive that Hilary would be POTUS Jan. 2009. If anyone one here was a gun nut in 1988 they will remember Big George Bush's Assault Weapons Ban of 1989.
Big George started the Ban in motion BEFORE he moved into the White Houseand I was 99.999% positive that Hilary would start grabbing guns BEFORE she moved into the White House.
Paul
P.S. Even AFTER Big George's AWB the NRA gave him an "A" rating.
lifewithoutparole
07-31-14, 17:25
I just received 5 packs of 100, CCI 22LR HP that I ordered last year from Midway. I had 500 of the 22LR 40 grain ordered too, but that is still on backorder. I am glad to see that it is starting to lighten up. I paid 7.49 per 100 for the HP and I think 6.49 for the 40 grain. I am going on a "bucket" trip this September to celebrate my retirement earlier this year and I will try to hit a bunch of Wal-Mart's along the way. Though 9MM is what I shoot the most, I still like taking my old 22's out for plinking when I hit the range.
Local Wally-World has all ammo available except for rimfire. Sporting Goods lady states that it's the same "old guys" that are in there everytime she's stocking the shelves asking about rimfire ammo.
Keith
Local Wally-World has all ammo available except for rimfire. Sporting Goods lady states that it's the same "old guys" that are in there everytime she's stocking the shelves asking about rimfire ammo.
Keith
Time to give an old man a fukking BEAT DOWN.
Time to give an old man a fukking BEAT DOWN.
So true lol
I went in to a local walmart one morning to see who was waiting. It was one old man and 5 or 6 obvious welfare recipients. The cashier said that group is there every morning from as early as 4:30am til they stock the shelves at 7-7:30 am. So at least in my area we are paying these people to buy ammo because people with jobs and responsibilites cant wait 3 hours every morning for ammo.
I personally dont like to shoot 22lr unless introducing a new shooter to the sport. If only 22lr was available I would not be involved with shooting anymore.
Eurodriver
08-01-14, 15:22
Waiting 3 hours to make how much money? No wonder they're on welfare.
My LGS sells 50rd boxes for $4.50. I can't imagine them making enough money off buying and reselling from Walmart to make it worth their while.
Waiting 3 hours to make how much money? No wonder they're on welfare.
My LGS sells 50rd boxes for $4.50. I can't imagine them making enough money off buying and reselling from Walmart to make it worth their while.
When you're old, you'll drive 50 miles to save $.03/gallon on gas.
Waiting 3 hours to make how much money? No wonder they're on welfare.
My LGS sells 50rd boxes for $4.50. I can't imagine them making enough money off buying and reselling from Walmart to make it worth their while.
Indoubt that they are making much money off of it if any. If I was walmart employee I would refuse to sell it to them. I would tell them im saving it for our customers who pay your salary.
After not seeing ANY powder locally I finally made it down to Cabelas in Boise and low and behold they had some- bought 2 lbs of IMR4064 an 2 Lbs of IMR 4227. And glad I did buy two different powders cause found out at the register they have a strict limit of 2lbs per type of powder.:nono:
But there's a catch.
That 20 round box of Winchester 55 grain FMJ that used to sell for $4 is now $11.
That 50 round white box 9mm that used to sell for $8 is now $15.
zombiescometh
08-04-14, 03:56
But there's a catch.
That 20 round box of Winchester 55 grain FMJ that used to sell for $4 is now $11.
That 50 round white box 9mm that used to sell for $8 is now $15.
That's nothing compared to Dicks sporting goods prices.
Blue Thunder
08-06-14, 15:14
I was in my indoor range last weekend with my Ruger 45/22 and 10 mags of 22LR. After emptying them all the guy on the next stall over said "How did you get all those to go bang"? I told him they all were 16-18 years old school ammo not the new stuff out there that you can sometimes pay too much for. The price tag on the boxes in my brick I was shooting was $1.75 for 50 rounds of Zapper 22LR. Yes, old school sometimes beats New School....
Visited Cabelas last weekend. 223 and 5.56 at 6.99 and 7.99 "on sale" going no where. They had 22LR on the shelf and as expected three retirees were circling like sharks. How very apropos as it was Shark Week and it was almost as entertaining watching these gentlemen try to figure out how to beat the two box limit as it was to see the latest episodes of Great Whits circling divers who were testing the sharks reactions to urine. Also plenty of every type of primers on the shelf and decent pre-panic prices. Cabelas is not a leader on low prices, but it was heartening to see the price drops from 9.99 to 6.99. Things are gradually returning to sanity.
When I can actually find common pistol and to a lesser extent rifle powders in stock, I'll call it "over". Finding a pound of VV pistol powder like N330 or 340 is like searching for a unicorn.
rcoodyar15
08-14-14, 08:55
When I can actually find common pistol and to a lesser extent rifle powders in stock, I'll call it "over". Finding a pound of VV pistol powder like N330 or 340 is like searching for a unicorn.
Powder? I have given up trying to find it at retail dealers. You can backorder and when they fill all the orders ahead of you they will ship yours. Who knows when.
I am feeding the monster. Buying off gunbrokers. Paying way too much but getting what I want. I know it is absolutely the wrong thing to do but...
you know many of the sellers on Gunbrokers are retail dealers with storefronts. I asked them if they sell powder out of their store. They say no we put it all on Gunbrokers.
When this stops things will be getting back to normal. I do feel guilty for participating but damn it I need powder and they have it and I don't care what it cost.
lifewithoutparole
08-14-14, 10:48
I received the other 500 rounds of CCI 22 LR from Midway that I had ordered last December so I am good to go for awhile. I had to laugh at Blue Thunder's thing about the cost of his old ammo. A couple of years ago I ran across a box of 38 Spl. reloads (wadcutters) that I picked up back in the 80's when I had my old Ruger 357 and they were 3.00 for 50 rounds! Things have changed.
Reconinforce
08-28-14, 06:02
Just walked in to lgs and picked up a pound of powder and primers. Also had 8 lbs in stock also.
Getting projectiles online. Looking better every day.
rcoodyar15
08-28-14, 06:43
Just walked in to lgs and picked up a pound of powder and primers. Also had 8 lbs in stock also.
Getting projectiles online. Looking better every day.
glad to hear it. I am looking for a thousand berger .224 70 gr VLD's. Any recomendations.
Our local gun shows have powder dealers with pretty much everything in stock. You'll pay $30 for powder that should be $25-26 pre-runup, but still way cheaper than gbroker or mail order. These are legit dealers that specialize in powder/primers that have hazmat delivery charges. I still try to sppt LGS, but many have given up on powder.
Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk
Stuff is in stock for the most part... Some powders are still hard to find, but you can get rolling on something. The stuff that is in stock, powder wise, is full price for sure.
The old $22 pound of powder days at Cabelas are history.
My LGS sends out shipment notifications at least twice a week with all the good stuff. They are consistently getting XBR, H322, Benchmark, H4198, H4895, etc. Varget and H110 about once a month. Primers are always in stock.
Most 1lb'ers are around $32, so yes, definitely full price (which is to be expected considering the past year).
Reconinforce
08-28-14, 09:20
The 8 lbs jugs were the best value (about $90). Would take me a long time to burn through that though. :)
Your right. Typo'd it, that was the 4lbs price.
Most 1lb'ers are around $32, so yes, definitely full price (which is to be expected considering the past year).
Yes. And when I'm low on something, I'll definitely pay full price to get it. I just hope it tapers off in the long run.
The 8 lbs jugs were the best value (about $90). Would take me a long time to burn through that though. :)
Those days are long gone my friend. 8# of XBR was ~$230 a week ago when my lgs got some.
Yes. And when I'm low on something, I'll definitely pay full price to get it. I just hope it tapers off in the long run.
It's not bad if you buy a lb or two a week. You end up paying more in the long run, but I get what I can get to add to my stash.
Those days are long gone my friend. 8# of XBR was ~$230 a week ago when my lgs got some.
That's about what Pappabear paid for our last 8 of XBR... Takes your breath away, but we were running low on that stuff.
Saw 8 of AR comp in another store for the same price.
That's about what Pappabear paid for our last 8 of XBR... Takes your breath away, but we were running low on that stuff.
How long ago was that? My store got another 8#er or XBR in today. It's gone now, but it was $217, so it went down a little. Not too bad considering 1lb is ~$32/lb.
How long ago was that?
2 weeks.
Reconinforce
08-28-14, 23:01
What are you all being charged for cci small p primers in your neck of the woods? Hate the has mat fees online.
My shooting has been very limited this year so I have not needed to buy anything. I actually would like to get rid of some varget, h355, and tac. Shipping is the only problem with getting rid of powder. I actually have only looked for h322, and I found 2 pounds locally. Found some online but price with hazmat would have been roughly 300 dollars for 8 pounds. Localy it was 27 dollars per pound.
One thing im always looking for is good expanding bullets. I lucked into 1k of pulled 62 trophy bonded bear claws. I also picked up a some tsx/ttsx, partitions, and some accubonds.
That is all I have picked up this year. Right before the school shooting incident I stocked up.
What are you all being charged for cci small p primers in your neck of the woods? Hate the has mat fees online.
$39 for pretty much all the standard primers is what I'll typically see at cabelas. I don't shop around much though.
$35/1000 for primers at discount sports stores in Western Oregon.
$35/k for blue box CCI... Everywhere except the mega LGS discount store, where the are $45-50.
Sent from my PRC-104 using phonetics
Pistol primers are between ~$35-40 at my lgs in Houston.
thopkins22
08-29-14, 09:15
Pistol primers are between ~$35-40 at my lgs in Houston.
What shop is this? One Houstonian to another....
What shop is this? One Houstonian to another....
10ring on Jones Rd.
Primer prices locally still suck down here in Florida. Basically 40 per 1k.
I still buy online in bulk to amortize the hazmat fee into the savings. It works out to be cheaper but i do need to buy quite a few at a time to realize any savings.
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