It's 2014 - is meteorology really that difficult?

[Eurodriver]

Had a great Friday afternoon planned. Checked the weather last night. They were showing 50% chance of rain, which for anyone that lives in central Florida is the forecast every day from July to October and the rain is relegated to the evening hours closest to the coast.

Around 10am I see some clouds rolling in, but dismiss it. By noon it's a wash.

Literally 36 hours before the entire state is covered in rain, they were saying expect light rain in the evening hours. How do they consistently mess it up so severely? Does anyone have any ideas? I understand there are a lot of variables that go into making a weather forecast - but how on earth do you miss this?

http://i1328.photobucket.com/albums/w521/6234987u02/Untitled_zps197045d4.jpg

[wildcard600]

Crazy Russian weather control devices ?

[Outlander Systems]

WAG: Wild-Assed Guess
SWAG: "Scientific" Wild-Assed Guess

/endthread

[Hmac]

Given the complexity of the systems involved, I think it's amazing they get it right as often as they do.

[Dead Man]

Given the complexity of the systems involved, I think it's amazing they get it right as often as they do.

Indeed. I'm not a meteorologist, but as an alpine climber, a basic understanding is essential to long life.

There's a LOT of stuff at play, and it's truly a guess based on what's measurable at the time of the guess.

There seems to be a common misconception that all weather systems come from somewhere... you, OP, ask "how do you miss this?" Well, it wasn't there when they made their educated guess. Air pressure, humidity, temperature, wind direction, etc, etc..... something changed and allowed the formation of a pressure void. Cold air was drawn down, or hot air surged upward, and the collision of air masses allowed water vapor to condense and form into precipitation. If the winds had been a little different, if the day hadn't gotten quite as hot, if, if, if.

This doesn't sound like bad forecasting to me, though. They predicted precipitation.... just not exactly when and to the degree you were hoping.

[Moose-Knuckle]

Crazy Russian weather control devices ?

Well since the Vietnam War starting with Operation Popeye we, are enemies, and a couple of allies have been modifying weather via scalar electromagnetics.

[SteyrAUG]

This is by far the most accurate forecasting device I've ever seen.

http://c1.yoyo.com/images/products/p/qj/qj-412_1z.jpg

Way more reliable than the local news. Thankfully computers give us real time doppler so we can just keep an eye on things ourselves.

[The_War_Wagon]

Consistently wrong... AND -













- they get PAID for it! :thank_you2:

[Eurodriver]

This doesn't sound like bad forecasting to me, though. They predicted precipitation.... just not exactly when and to the degree you were hoping.

I'm sorry, this bothers me a bit. Anyone who lives in central Florida can tell you

A) There is always a 40%+ chance of rain forecasted every single day from July to October.
B) Rain always starts in the afternoon and continues through the evening
C) Unless there is a tropical storm/hurricane, 24 hours of soaking rain is unheard of.

If you live somewhere that gets "fronts" that come through and drop rain, then disappear and you get several weeks of dry weather your statement would be understandable. If they predict 30% chance of rain, but it rains all day, they predicted rain and it rained. Good for them.

But what is the point of having weather forecasters if they can say there is a 40% chance of rain every day for 4 months and get away with it if there is a monsoon or drought? I just don't see how in this day and age they can completely miss a weather system that brought near record amounts of rainfall from Jacksonville to Miami.

[Hmac]

I'm not clear. Do you think weather forecasting inaccuracy is based on laziness? They just don't care? They aren't putting any money into forecasting technology? Do you think that they don't see enough importance in weather forecasting that it's not being scientifically studied?

Seems to me that there's a lot at stake in getting it right. What do you think is the reason that they get the forecasts wrong so often? How would you propose that they do it better? More money? Smarter forecasters? Better technology?

[BoringGuy45]

I've looked at supposed "real time" weather forecasts that told me that it was sunny while I was in the middle of a severe thunderstorm and placed chances of rain at 10%...AND was off about 20 degrees in temperature. The old Indian weather stone is more accurate: if it's wet, it's raining. If it's covered in snow, it's snowing. If it's gone: tornado.

[Eurodriver]

I'm not clear. Do you think weather forecasting inaccuracy is based on laziness? They just don't care? They aren't putting any money into forecasting technology? Do you think that they don't see enough importance in weather forecasting that it's not being scientifically studied?

Seems to me that there's a lot at stake in getting it right. What do you think is the reason that they get the forecasts wrong so often? How would you propose that they do it better? More money? Smarter forecasters? Better technology?

I think they don't see enough importance in weather forecasting that it's not being studied enough. We can figure out what makes up galaxies hundreds of millions of lightyears away, but they can't figure out 18,000,000 Floridians are going to be affected by soaking rains 24 hours in advance? Get real. They can do it, but maybe there isn't enough consolidation among meteorologists. Instead of having 4 big time weather channels with loads of money compete against each other in every metropolitan area (CBS, ABC, FOX, NBC, etc), perhaps they should pool all of their resources together and make a really accurate forecast they all can share. (I realize finances and advertising may inhibit this)

Ten years ago Hurricane Charley was barreling directly for Tampa Bay, FL. 6 hours before landfall it made an unexpected shift to the East and sliced through Punta Gorda and up through Orlando. Guess where all of the Tampa evacuees were at? It's been a decade, yet I feel that same mistake could be made today.

I think they get the forecasts wrong so often because they are lacking innovation. I think getting out of the comfort zone we seem to be in and trying to make forecasts more accurate (not to be confused with just throwing money at the problem) would make a lot of progress.

[drsal]

The forecast for tonight...dark. Periods of light in the early morning hours.

[JBecker 72]

https://i.chzbgr.com/maxW500/6717327104/h420D9D2D/

[Hmac]

H
I think they don't see enough importance in weather forecasting that it's not being studied enough. We can figure out what makes up galaxies hundreds of millions of lightyears away, but they can't figure out 18,000,000 Floridians are going to be affected by soaking rains 24 hours in advance? Get real. They can do it, but maybe there isn't enough consolidation among meteorologists. Instead of having 4 big time weather channels with loads of money compete against each other in every metropolitan area (CBS, ABC, FOX, NBC, etc), perhaps they should pool all of their resources together and make a really accurate forecast they all can share. (I realize finances and advertising may inhibit this)

Ten years ago Hurricane Charley was barreling directly for Tampa Bay, FL. 6 hours before landfall it made an unexpected shift to the East and sliced through Punta Gorda and up through Orlando. Guess where all of the Tampa evacuees were at? It's been a decade, yet I feel that same mistake could be made today.

I think they get the forecasts wrong so often because they are lacking innovation. I think getting out of the comfort zone we seem to be in and trying to make forecasts more accurate (not to be confused with just throwing money at the problem) would make a lot of progress.

How much more would you be willing to pay in taxes to have more accurate weather forecasting? Or...how much would you pay to a private website in subscription fees so that they could afford the kind of innovation and provide it to you (and only you or other subscribers)?

[SteyrAUG]

I think they get the forecasts wrong so often because they are lacking innovation. I think getting out of the comfort zone we seem to be in and trying to make forecasts more accurate (not to be confused with just throwing money at the problem) would make a lot of progress.

The problem is they rely on "past predictors" aka computer models, rather than attempt an "informed forecast" aka divination. The reality is we don't know what weather is actually going to do in the next 30 minutes in some cases.

[ptmccain]

Have you ever noticed how everyone talks about the weather, but nobody actually does anything about it?

Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk

[TAZ]

We can figure out what makes up galaxies hundreds of millions of lightyears away, but they can't figure out 18,000,000 Floridians are going to be affected by soaking rains 24 hours in advance? Get real. They can do it,

To be fair we THINK we have figured out what galaxies millions of light years away are made of. To the best of my knowledge we have yet to get any confirmation on those theories.

Weather men on the other hand are fact checked every second of the day.

Predicting the weather is like predicting human behavior or understanding the cosmos. We pretty much don't know what we don't know about what actually makes and controls the weather. People just refuse to accept that concept and actually depend on a forecast.

[Hmac]

Yeah, I think weather prediction is pretty much at the top of what's possible (or economically feasible) these days. The systems are just too complex to have the level of accuracy people have come to expect of simpler problems.

[Dead Man]

I think they don't see enough importance in weather forecasting that it's not being studied enough. We can figure out what makes up galaxies hundreds of millions of lightyears away, but they can't figure out 18,000,000 Floridians are going to be affected by soaking rains 24 hours in advance? Get real. They can do it, but maybe there isn't enough consolidation among meteorologists. Instead of having 4 big time weather channels with loads of money compete against each other in every metropolitan area (CBS, ABC, FOX, NBC, etc), perhaps they should pool all of their resources together and make a really accurate forecast they all can share. (I realize finances and advertising may inhibit this)

Ten years ago Hurricane Charley was barreling directly for Tampa Bay, FL. 6 hours before landfall it made an unexpected shift to the East and sliced through Punta Gorda and up through Orlando. Guess where all of the Tampa evacuees were at? It's been a decade, yet I feel that same mistake could be made today.

I think they get the forecasts wrong so often because they are lacking innovation. I think getting out of the comfort zone we seem to be in and trying to make forecasts more accurate (not to be confused with just throwing money at the problem) would make a lot of progress.

It seems like you're making huge assumptions based on completely ignorant conjecture.

Go get a degree in meteorology, spend some time in the field, then tell us what's possible and what isn't.

[halmbarte]

Predicting chaotic systems is always a problem.

H

[26 Inf]

I read a book on meteorology when I was a young adult and was immediately struck by the intelligent design of the global weather system. As a result I took every meteorology class my college offered. I still don't know squat.

The global weather pattern consists of 6 bands of winds, three in each hemisphere - the polar easterlies, the prevailing westerlies, and the easterly trade winds. These bands are contained in 6 distinct cells or thermal loops, in which air rises and travels towards the poles, then 'falls' as it cools and flows back towards the equator.

IIRC Florida is pretty close to the area where the bands of the northeast trade winds and the prevailing westerlies merge, as well as the interface of the Hadley thermal loop and the Ferrelll thermal loop. Those facts, coupled with temperature changes from landmass to the ocean combine to make forecasting pretty adventurous as these belts push north during the summer months.

[lunchbox]

I read a book on meteorology when I was a young adult and was immediately struck by the intelligent design of the global weather system. As a result I took every meteorology class my college offered. I still don't know squat.

The global weather pattern consists of 6 bands of winds, three in each hemisphere - the polar easterlies, the prevailing westerlies, and the easterly trade winds. These bands are contained in 6 distinct cells or thermal loops, in which air rises and travels towards the poles, then 'falls' as it cools and flows back towards the equator.

IIRC Florida is pretty close to the area where the bands of the northeast trade winds and the prevailing westerlies merge, as well as the interface of the Hadley thermal loop and the Ferrelll thermal loop. Those facts, coupled with temperature changes from landmass to the ocean combine to make forecasting pretty adventurous as these belts push north during the summer months.Nice, way to come with the info!! On side note, I will say that the European models/paths seem to be more accurate than the American models. And I hate giving the Europeans credit for anything other than gay cut speedos.

[Hmac]

Nice, way to come with the info!! On side note, I will say that the European models/paths seem to be more accurate than the American models. And I hate giving the Europeans credit for anything other than gay cut speedos.

The weather channel usually shows storm track predictions based on both US and European models side-by-side. The disparity has been noted and reported in several media outlets. It's apparently stimulated about $25,000,000 in supercomputer upgrades as a result of US track forecasting Hurricane Sandy lagging the European prediction by 4 days.

[lunchbox]

The weather channel usually shows storm track predictions based on both US and European models side-by-side. The disparity has been noted and reported in several media outlets. It's apparently stimulated about $25,000,000 in supercomputer upgrades as a result of US track forecasting Hurricane Sandy lagging the European prediction by 4 days.Damn, no kidding.

[Abraham]

"And I hate giving the Europeans credit for anything other than gay cut speedos."

Give them credit?

Is that an endorsement or criticism?

I'm confused...?

[lunchbox]

"And I hate giving the Europeans credit for anything other than gay cut speedos."

Give them credit?

Is that an endorsement or criticism?

I'm confused...?Was just poking fun at the European beach goers. Didn't put a lot of thought into it, just making jokes.... Please don't tell me Ya rocking the banana hammock. JK.

[SOWT]

The UK model usually does a good job.
The navy had a model (NOGAPS) that was good for tropical systems, I am not overly impressed with the current USAF model (HWRF, aka Worf).

NHC/JTWC used to have authority to change tracks away from the computer models, and I alway believed they moved systems towards major installations/cities as a CYA move.

As far as the OP goes, did you have have a small low pressure system develop just off the coast? I don't know any model that does a good job developing small (micro-scale, or storm scale) systems.

[Eurodriver]

I understand where everyone is going with this. I'm a libertarian and I don't want to pay more tax dollars or support industries for this, either. But we all know how much money is wasted on Jamal so he can buy crack and Cleetus so he can buy Meth. Forgive me for feeling the short end of the Uncle Sam teet.

I have absolutely no idea where this weather system came from, but I know that they got it right today. Good for them.

[Bubba FAL]

And these folks seem to think that they can accurately predict global weather patterns using the same flawed computer models.