View Full Version : End Game II: War with Iran Looms
Business_Casual
09-03-15, 06:04
So I'm not the only one who sees the geopolitical strategy at play:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/sep/2/nuclear-deal-will-make-war-with-iran-more-likely-f/
The best part is, the Iranians will be paying for it! Ha!
A pre-emptive strike with tactical nuclear weapons may be what is necessary to end Iran's rouge nuclear program once and for all.
Eurodriver
09-03-15, 06:59
Pre emptive nuclear strike.
Wow.
Does no one understand the seriousness of that?
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/06/the-iran-we-dont-see-a-tour-of-the-country-where-people-love-americans/258166/
Yet a 2009 World Public Opinion poll found that 51 percent of Iranians hold a favorable opinion of Americans, a number consistent with other polls, meaning that Americans are more widely liked in Iran than anywhere else in the Middle East. The U.S. favorability rating isn't even that high in U.S. allies India or Turkey, and is two and half times as high as in Egypt.
But let's ignore facts. Jesus would nuke them.
Outlander Systems
09-03-15, 07:13
Pre emptive nuclear strike.
Wow.
Does no one understand the seriousness of that?
Welcome to bizzaro world.
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/06/the-iran-we-dont-see-a-tour-of-the-country-where-people-love-americans/258166/
But let's ignore facts. Jesus would nuke them.
The problem, as I see it, is the leadership of Iran is very anti-American, not that the people are anti-American. Given their model of governance over there that is a problem. I have a cousin who was a long-time missionary in the region and still has children who live in the middle east. He says that overall, most people in the middle east don't like the deal and that it is only going to spur on a nuclear arms race in the region. He also said that in Islam, they hold an ideal that it is okay to lie to your enemy. I see nothing in this deal that makes me think that it gives anyone any chance of stopping Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. It only gives them more money to do so, to develop and build more conventional weapons and to fight more proxy wars to further destabilize the region.
Eurodriver
09-03-15, 09:12
I just find it incredible how quickly people are to jump on whoever U.S. politicians say is the "bad guy" without any thought to future consequences or past grievances.
Iran's beef with the US began when they supported the Shah during an insurrection by a decendant of the previous dynasty. After quelling the violence, the Shah declared himself a supreme leader and declared his authority absolute as opposed to being bound by the Constitution prior to the 1953 insurrection. This understandably infuriated the Iranians (How would we feel about China if the Chinese overthrew a Republican insurrection against Obama and then he declared himself absolute dictator?) and finally when things were calming down and the Shah relented control, the Shah became ill with cancer and we hand delivered him to the USA for treatment (because he's our boy, after all) which further infuriated the Iranians and led to fears of a US Gov't was going to put the Shah back in power. This made it easy for Khomeini to point the finger at the USA and resulted in the Embassy crisis.
It sure didn't help when Iran was invaded by Iraq a year later, the USA openly supported Iraq, and a year after that Israelis bombed Iran in American jets with American made munitions. At what other time has the USA openly supported a preemptive invasion of another country??
It's ****ing astonishing that even 51% of their population has a favorable view of us, and it's certainly not unreasonable for their government to hate us.
The only thing about this entire scenario I'm unsure of is if the hate for Iran is more Saudi based or Israeli based.
FromMyColdDeadHand
09-03-15, 09:24
Pre emptive nuclear strike.
Wow.
Does no one understand the seriousness of that?
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/06/the-iran-we-dont-see-a-tour-of-the-country-where-people-love-americans/258166/
But let's ignore facts. Jesus would nuke them.
WWJN...
Business_Casual
09-03-15, 09:27
I would explain US policy as "follow the money" as simply as anything else. War capitalism is my current working theory, though I am open to other ideas.
Pre emptive nuclear strike.
Wow.
Does no one understand the seriousness of that?
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/06/the-iran-we-dont-see-a-tour-of-the-country-where-people-love-americans/258166/
But let's ignore facts. Jesus would nuke them.
I do, having worked in a couple of nuclear power plants, I've got a pretty good grasp on what excessive radiation exposure can do to the human body.. It's not pretty. The last thing I want to see is nukes getting slung around. I happen to enjoy living, and would like to do so for awhile longer. It seems as if our gov't is hell bent on getting another war started somewhere, if it isn't with Iran, then it's Syria, if not them, then it's the Ukraine.. Sooner or later they're going to hit the jackpot and get something touched off, and we as a country will pay dearly for it. This has to stop.
Moose-Knuckle
09-03-15, 12:37
The only thing about this entire scenario I'm unsure of is if the hate for Iran is more Saudi based or Israeli based.
The House of Saud will never allow the Persians to get the bomb. The US have been in bed with the Wahhabis for over half a century as we suckle oil from their tit.
I just find it incredible how quickly people are to jump on whoever U.S. politicians say is the "bad guy" without any thought to future consequences or past grievances.
Iran's beef with the US began when they supported the Shah during an insurrection by a decendant of the previous dynasty. After quelling the violence, the Shah declared himself a supreme leader and declared his authority absolute as opposed to being bound by the Constitution prior to the 1953 insurrection. This understandably infuriated the Iranians (How would we feel about China if the Chinese overthrew a Republican insurrection against Obama and then he declared himself absolute dictator?) and finally when things were calming down and the Shah relented control, the Shah became ill with cancer and we hand delivered him to the USA for treatment (because he's our boy, after all) which further infuriated the Iranians and led to fears of a US Gov't was going to put the Shah back in power. This made it easy for Khomeini to point the finger at the USA and resulted in the Embassy crisis.
It sure didn't help when Iran was invaded by Iraq a year later, the USA openly supported Iraq, and a year after that Israelis bombed Iran in American jets with American made munitions. At what other time has the USA openly supported a preemptive invasion of another country??
It's ****ing astonishing that even 51% of their population has a favorable view of us, and it's certainly not unreasonable for their government to hate us.
The only thing about this entire scenario I'm unsure of is if the hate for Iran is more Saudi based or Israeli based.
From the article:
The Iran Strategy Council was commissioned by the Jewish Institute of National Security to educate Americans on the consequences of the Iran nuclear deal.
I personally believe Iran already has the bomb and once this deal goes through they will become the power in the region and there won't be anything the U.S. can do to stop them.
I say screw it, hand out nukes to all the countries in the ME like Oprah hands out cars to her audience, cut off all trade and relations with them, and let those idiots do what they do to each other best. But I'm really jaded and fed up with humanity so I freely admit my idea probably isn't the best solution...:angry:
Moose-Knuckle
09-03-15, 13:21
I say screw it, hand out nukes to all the countries in the ME like Oprah hands out cars to her audience, cut off all trade and relations with them, and let those idiots do what they do to each other best. But I'm really jaded and fed up with humanity so I freely admit my idea probably isn't the best solution...:angry:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snTaSJk0n_Y
Averageman
09-03-15, 13:54
Well any hope we had going in that we could stabilize the M.E. has been shot squarely in the foot.
I'm of the opinion that this started spinning out of control during the Carter Administration and anything we have done since then has just made it worse.
Do they have the bomb? More than likely. Will they use it? Again, more than likely.
The_War_Wagon
09-03-15, 13:58
I'm sure our mohammedan-in-chieftain is looking forward to nuking da' BRUDDAS from another mudda... NOT.
http://i212.photobucket.com/albums/cc305/The_War_Wagon/notamuslim01.jpg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snTaSJk0n_Y
Wow, I just now realized that the Nav was James Earl Jones!
Well any hope we had going in that we could stabilize the M.E. has been shot squarely in the foot.
I'm of the opinion that this started spinning out of control during the Carter Administration and anything we have done since then has just made it worse.
Do they have the bomb? More than likely. Will they use it? Again, more than likely.
Well Reagan did manage to form an alliance with a mostly secular oil producing nation even if it was run by a brutal dictator. Of course Bush (41) screwed that up completely.
Business_Casual
09-03-15, 18:39
Well Reagan did manage to form an alliance with a mostly secular oil producing nation even if it was run by a brutal dictator. Of course Bush (41) screwed that up completely.
Again - why? These are the smartest, toughest people in the country - it takes a steel mind and an even stronger will to become president. It takes almost as much brains to become a trusted advisor to someone who becomes president. Bush - Yale. Obama - Harvard. Compare your resume to theirs and tell me these people aren't smart achievers? That said - again, why? Follow the money. JDAMs are making someone a lot of money. Carrier deployments, for instance, costs billions. Where does all that money go? Follow the money...
Welcome to bizzaro world.
An endless stream of misinformation and routine threat inflation from the media, paid lobbyists and fatuous candidates trying to sound tough does its work over time.
Our own sense of empire and the idea that we are entitled to any action, any justification is far more dangerous than the Iranian nuclear program and it's 3.5 percent enrichment. Half of our political class doesn't even care if WE keep our own deals or not.
I dunno. Nuke anything seems like a horrible thing. I remember watching the Day After as a wee lad and it scared the hell outta me.
Iran's problem is the government not their people. I've known a few Persians in my day and none of them were jerks. They were either hot as hell or looked like 70s era Ron Jeremy with a Blu Blocker fetish.
Before the Islamic Revolution, they were pretty much like anybody else. I harbor no ill will towards Israel but I'm not on the "they're God's people and do no wrong" bandwagon either. There are no angels in that part of the world.
They have vast resources, beautiful women, and archaeological treasures of high historical value. It's a shame that they can't secularize their governments and come up with better things to do than play Hatfields and McCoys.
FromMyColdDeadHand
09-03-15, 23:55
It sure didn't help when Iran was invaded by Iraq a year later, the USA openly supported Iraq, and a year after that Israelis bombed Iran in American jets with American made munitions. At what other time has the USA openly supported a preemptive invasion of another country??
Uhm, did they move the Osirak nuclear plant?
How do American jets flown by Israelis attacking Iraq fit into your narrative? Doesn't this prove that we are Iran's friend since we kept Iran's foe from getting nuclear bomb, and that Israel is Iran's guardian angel and we are it's fairy God-mother?
I actually was alive at the time and I can tell you that anyone that would take a piece out of Iranians after the hostage crisis (ahem, not an 'Embassy Crisis') would get a non-alcoholic beer from me. I don't think anyone thought that Saddam was Lafayette.
Eurodriver
09-04-15, 01:17
Have no Idea how that one slipped passed me.
I knew that too, because a big issue with Israel bombing Iran has always been the distance.
Still, my point stands. Iranians aren't savages, and the conflict between us is a natural result of US policy and the overall instability of the region. If the U.S. Never backs the Shah, the embassy is never taken over.
Again, China comes to the USA Govt's aid and turns Obama into a dictator. Your thoughts toward China are....?
FromMyColdDeadHand
09-04-15, 01:31
Your facts are wrong, but your conclusion is right, ok Dan Rather. ;)
Moose-Knuckle
09-04-15, 01:47
Wow, I just now realized that the Nav was James Earl Jones!
Damn, I never realized that! Holy smokes, I think this is the first time I've seen in a role as a young man.
Business_Casual
02-03-17, 05:44
More proof the left/right paradigm is a ruse, new boss, same as the old boss:
http://www.wnd.com/2017/02/the-coming-clash-with-iran/
Yes, I realize the wnd source, but there are quotes from Flynn.
Here's my original theory on the topic, that the deal was intended to fail and cause war:
https://www.m4carbine.net/showthread.php?172377-The-End-Game-War-with-Iran
It has been a few years since I was in a position where I was briefed on such things.
But key parts of Irans drive to get nukes is located in tunnels dug by North Korea experts (seems they are the best at tunnels for warfare). The key parts are so deep in the mountain that JDAM's just will not be enough to get the job done.
I don't know what the west or Israel is willing to do to stop the Iranians from getting the bomb. But what I do know is as soon as they get the bomb and a delivery system, they will use them. It fits the theology of the leadership of Iran.
To add to Yoni's post... The problem, is, as Firefly said, the theocratic government of Iran. They are composed of the Twelver sect of Shia Islam and believe that it is their holy duty to foment violence in the world in order to hasten the return of their so-called messiah, the 12th imam. If we nuke them, they get what they wanted all along... world conflagration. That said (and I could be wrong), the reason why I think that Iran doesn't have the bomb as of this writing is that they haven't used it yet.
FromMyColdDeadHand
02-03-17, 17:51
Is this why we had all the carriers home for a bit, so we could surge them?
ramairthree
02-03-17, 18:51
There is a very simple bottom line here.
There is no way around it.
When all is said and done,
Having the capability to make nuclear power means you can do a weapons program.
You can nit pick over what centrifuges are for and accounting for waste material,
But at the end of the day,
Having the capacities, material, and ability to make nuclear power means you have the pre-requisites for a weapons program.
Business_Casual
08-08-18, 18:59
Sanctions reinstated.
FlyingHunter
08-08-18, 20:22
Sanctions reinstated.
From the Wall Street Journal today 8-8-18:
China, Russia and India say they will continue to buy petroleum from Iran, despite U.S. sanctions that would prohibit those sales, although banking difficulties are hampering their ability to invest in the Islamic Republic’s oil fields.
Voodoochild
08-08-18, 20:38
Crush their economy and cut off their access to international banking. Crush their ability to sell oil on the market. The people will get sick of their shit and erupt. When that happens we have to be ready to support them. Israel and the Suadis have to be ready to support as well.
I was a student at the University of Arizona at the time of the Iranian Revolution and Embassy takeover. I had neighbors where I lived off campus who were Iranian students. Nice people, and very secular. They indicated their student visas were being revoked and nervously were returning to Iran. Two applied for political asylum in the US and I know for sure one got to stay. He is now a very successful medical doctor in the Phoenix, Arizona area, and big time Republican.
Of all the Nations in that part of the world, Iran has a high level of sophistication and outward looking people. There is a huge segment of that country who want a secular, modern society, living in peace with the rest of the advanced world. Iran has to be fixed from within, and that means aggressive efforts to support the people themselves to take control of the situation.
G-D bless Trump. He will help bring the government in Iran down and the Persian people will finish them.
Give the people 5 years to tear down the terrorist support, nuclear weapons research, Al Quds, then you will see a real peace treaty between Israel and Persia.
sundance435
08-09-18, 11:26
I just find it incredible how quickly people are to jump on whoever U.S. politicians say is the "bad guy" without any thought to future consequences or past grievances.
Iran's beef with the US began when they supported the Shah during an insurrection by a decendant of the previous dynasty. After quelling the violence, the Shah declared himself a supreme leader and declared his authority absolute as opposed to being bound by the Constitution prior to the 1953 insurrection. This understandably infuriated the Iranians (How would we feel about China if the Chinese overthrew a Republican insurrection against Obama and then he declared himself absolute dictator?) and finally when things were calming down and the Shah relented control, the Shah became ill with cancer and we hand delivered him to the USA for treatment (because he's our boy, after all) which further infuriated the Iranians and led to fears of a US Gov't was going to put the Shah back in power. This made it easy for Khomeini to point the finger at the USA and resulted in the Embassy crisis.
It sure didn't help when Iran was invaded by Iraq a year later, the USA openly supported Iraq, and a year after that Israelis bombed Iran in American jets with American made munitions. At what other time has the USA openly supported a preemptive invasion of another country??
It's ****ing astonishing that even 51% of their population has a favorable view of us, and it's certainly not unreasonable for their government to hate us.
The only thing about this entire scenario I'm unsure of is if the hate for Iran is more Saudi based or Israeli based.
Yeah, we don't have the best history with the Iranians/Persians - definitely not clean hands. I don't disagree with allowing the Shah to come to the U.S. (because we have to back our bad guys, even when the chips are down), but that it even got to that point was a complete failure of U.S. foreign policy. I won't even get into our position in the Iran-Iraq War, because hindsight has undoubtedly clouded my opinion.
I will say that I supported Obama's Iran deal. It wasn't perfect, but it was a solid start to reengaging with an important country that has legitimate historical grievances with us. I don't see how unilaterally tearing it up benefits anyone, unless your goal is to start a war with Iran while having no international support to do so. Backing out of the deal was a win/win for the Iranian regime.
The House of Saud will never allow the Persians to get the bomb. The US have been in bed with the Wahhabis for over half a century as we suckle oil from their tit.
Yeah, it's pretty pathetic - I would much rather we had an ally in Iran than being in bed with House of Saud. Fifteen of nineteen 9/11 terrorists were Saudi - you don't have to be a foreign policy-fellow at Rand to extrapolate from that.
Discussion about our history with a single country during the cold war, without discussion about how the cold war was the focus of ALL FOREIGN POLICY decisions, is either disingenuous or ignorant.
I think ISIS has pretty decisively debunked the idea that only/mainly Saudi muslims can be recruited into terrorism.
I'm not a foreign policy-fellow, but I do know where EFP's came from.
I'm not trying to avoid debate about the US's foreign policy shortcomings, just keep it honest.
Yep, the proxy war in Yemen is Iran v. Saudi Arabia. I doubt that they are going to cry if Iran falls apart.
Crush their economy and cut off their access to international banking. Crush their ability to sell oil on the market. The people will get sick of their shit and erupt. When that happens we have to be ready to support them. Israel and the Suadis have to be ready to support as well.
The major problem here, I think, is having to deal with an enemy (twelver shia) that believes that they need to foster strife in the world, even if it means sacrificing their own people, in order to hasten the return of their so-called messiah, the twelfth imam.
The major problem here, I think, is having to deal with an enemy (twelver shia) that believes that they need to foster strife in the world, even if it means sacrificing their own people, in order to hasten the return of their so-called messiah, the twelfth imam.
Not really going to be an issue. The streets of Iran are burning and have been more or less for 6 months. Sanctions are in place. EU is saying they will violate the sanctions, but companies in the EU want to sell their stuff in USA. Sanctions will hold.
Economy will get worse.
The leaders are going to overtly start their program again, Israel will stop them. After a few reactors melt down, more ammo for the people to over throw the regime.
When the day comes and it will come, religious leaders, religious police, Quids, they all will be killed.
Think the French revolution, not the American.
Yoni, I was hoping you would chime in and you did. Thank you. I really hope you're right.
Sent from my G8341 using Tapatalk
Discussion about our history with a single country during the cold war, without discussion about how the cold war was the focus of ALL FOREIGN POLICY decisions, is either disingenuous or ignorant.
I think ISIS has pretty decisively debunked the idea that only/mainly Saudi muslims can be recruited into terrorism.
I'm not a foreign policy-fellow, but [B]I do know where EFP's came from.[/I]
I'm not trying to avoid debate about the US's foreign policy shortcomings, just keep it honest.
I am old enough to remember well the hostage ordeal. The previous actions by the U.S. government didn't matter to me then (as a freshman in high school) nor do they matter to me now. A few years later, in 1983, as I was immersed in Infantry OSUT at Ft. Benning, 241 U.S. military personnel died in Beirut. Yeah, technically it was Islamic Jihad/Hezbollah who were tagged as the culprits, but we all knew who was really behind the proxies.
It has been long enough to focus on more recent actions by the theocratic government of Iran. Kind of like the incessant whining here about "slavery" or "social injustice". Get over it, it's the past that none of you has actually endured.
Our biggest ally is perhaps the Iranian people themselves. The vast majority of them don't even remember the Shah, let alone were even born when he reigned. No overt military action needed. An intense support or even encouragement of an insurgency is the ticket. Obama blew the previous chance.
Actually, Obama was blowing the mullahs. A little Islamic fellatio amongst fellow muslims.
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