View Full Version : What If Eagle Claw Had Been Successful...?
What if there was no helicopter crash in the desert, what if Delta successfully rescued all American hostages in Tehran?
This first obvious question is how might that have influenced the 1980 election. Carter could have won and who knows what that would have led to in 1984. Losing in 1980 meant Reagan probably wouldn't get another chance. We might very well have been looking at Ted Kennedy as the democratic nominee for 84.
What would the 1980s have been like without Reagan. Would the Cold War have gone hot in 1983 / 1984? Would the Soviets have successfully pacified Afghanistan with Carter in office from 1980 to 1984?
Would we have seen the abortion of groups like Al Quida and been spared 9-11 or would we have been forced to fight a real war with a powerful Soviet Union with the flashpoint in Berlin?
Interesting point, however, I doubt Carter wins the election even if this mission were a success. It is a lesson that if you don't dare to fail why do you bother? Many very good changes / lesson are borne out of failure.
ETA: To back up my statement above.....As I recall, I was on the young side, but the US underwent a highly unusual period of stagflation (GDP Down + Inflation up) during the Carter years. The economy was more to blame for his failure. It also set Ron up very nicely for a "you could do almost anything even approaching intelligent" and the economy and our lives will improve.
If Ron doesn't get elected the Soviet Union doesn't collapse....Germany remains divided and I serve under Carter and not Ron which would be a bummer. While one can argue Russia is back to its old tricks, much of Eastern Europe is enjoying freedom unheard of after WW2.
What would SF look like in 2001 had that mission been a success and the changes that took place not been seen as necessary?
While this was all covered in American Dad, here's my thoughts:
Bush 41 had two successful ops to his name. Panama and Desert Storm. Everybody was pretty hooah after Desert Storm.
And....he lost in 92.
I wasn't a 70s baby, but pretty much everyone was already righteously pissed at Carter over the economy and the energy crisis. We were stagnant and the Soviets were doing...well...what they're doing now. Going places and doing things.
One good op really wouldn't have raised his stature. Because he just gave the go ahead. The SF guys were the ones. Eagle Claw was a hard lesson learned. But in and of itself, it was a ballsy move despite not being a success.
Because Iran Contra happened at the peak of Reagan's tenure and Bush got elected riding Ronald Reagan's (peace be upon him) coattails.
A Mondale/Ferraro presidency would've prolonged the Soviet Union or made them more desperate. Reagan (peace be upon him) decided to outspend them instead, planned tactic or not it worked.
Plus people were scared to death of him because of his sincere interest in weaponizing space.
Keep in mind the Barracks Bombing happened under Reagan and nothing happened. No long term resentment over lack of hard retribution.
Most normal people don't care about these things unless it literally hits them in the face. 9/11 was a total no shitter. For like a few months nobody cared about petty scrim scrabble BS. Somebody was going to get their asses kicked over that. Maybe it wasn't well planned but man somebody was going to pay.
But an embassy being taken? Aside from people saying "Man, that sucks" it wasn't the thing immediately bothering them like economy and gas prices.
Just my thoughts
Even if Operation Evening Light had been successful I doubt Carter would have been reelected. The economy was on the brink of collapse.
The loss of life during the operation was devastating. The upside to the operation was that during the Reagan administration several changes were made to better coordinate resources to support ODA and other units with the same doctrine. The 160th SOAR was created to support air operations and positive changes were made to small water craft units to better support waterborne operations.
President Carter was a good man and he had a good heart, but he had no business being President.
President Carter was a good man and he had a good heart, but he had no business being President.
That's pretty much how I always viewed him, the nicest "worst" President we ever had. By contrast Nixon was mostly a disaster as a person but was an effective President who accomplished some difficult things like concluding the war in Vietnam with the best deal possible and normalizing relations with China so we didn't end up with a two front Cold War.
And of course the hostage crisis wasn't the only Carter issue, but if he successfully rescued the hostages it "might" have made the difference. Just always interesting to consider the implications and how a single military operation can influence an entire decade.
Averageman
09-28-15, 21:38
I got to Germany in early '81, in my opinion if we were in the middle of a Cold War somebody should have brought President Carter up to the Fulda Gap and gave him the real skinny on our readiness at the time.
Had the Cold War gone hot , it would have went either nuclear or we would have been forced to surrender in the first 24 hours.
I'm sure our reported readiness was 90%, it reality it was less than 50% at best. We had so few operational Tanks and Men to crew them that a lot of our M60's had no track and some had no roadwheels. We would roll maybe six to seven Tanks when alerted some times.
I don't think anyone but Regan could have pulled off going from that, to "Tear down these walls." in such a short time.
HardToHandle
09-28-15, 22:11
I
I don't think anyone but Regan could have pulled off going from that, to "Tear down these walls." in such a short time.
I never stood in the Fulda Gap, but I second the sentiment.
Reagan recommissioned the BB61 series, sent nuclear armed Tomahawk land attack missiles, the B One and fitfully developed the MX. Most of that money was wasted, as the TLAMs, MX and even the battleships barely were back in service for a decade.
All that spending did build an unbelievable strong position to negotiate from.... Reagan's vision and strength resulted in a win-win situation between the USSR and USA. It was expensive in treasure and in the deaths of US military personnel, but he singlehandedly called the bluff of communism. Reagan could negotiate away various nuclear weapons because the conventional military capacity of the US was trending upwards. In places like Lebanon, the US held firm even when it seemed a pointless exercise (bombarding the Bekaa after the barracks bomb). That resolve gave Gorbachev the cover to deescalate, as the Politburo knew they had a formidable competitor in Reagan.
When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, Carter canceled the Olympics and export markets for US grain.
When the UK did not step up to constrain Cuban communism in Grenada, Reagan did. When Libya targeted US troops, Reagan bombed his tent. The contrast to drawing a red line that you not willing to enforce is dramatically different.
I very much appreciate all those who fought a mostly Cold War in the Eighties. They typified an America that wanted to win.
No one really knows. Interesting to think about though.
Carter really was a terrible president. It was like having a sheep leading your flock in a world of fanged alpha wolves.
He is and always was a weak, spineless, coward, appeaser, and fool. His good heart is irrelevant. A man should know his limitations. The office of POTUS is no place for such weaklings and/or Communists.
What if Neptune Spear had been a failure? Would a President Romney be up for re-election in 2016?
A Mondale/Ferraro presidency would've prolonged the Soviet Union or made them more desperate.
Fritz and tits were the two biggest boobs in the country... The SU would have loved them.
What if Neptune Spear had been a failure? Would a President Romney be up for re-election in 2016?
Neeewp. The nail in his coffin was his outright stating that he didn't care for the opinions of people taking government gibs.
Had every operator died and had they video of UBL doing the moonwalk over dead corpses humming Hip to Be Square it would've changed nothing. Absolutely nothing.
Because Benghazi changed nothing, Obamacare changed nothing, Fast and Furious changed nothing, and Syria changes nothing.
It all comes down to gibs at this point. Gibs and the hippie vote. Obama was a troll vote. Had he not been on the ticket, only the grown folks would have turned out to vote.
And as for Mondale well..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tu1r_rlUtXg
This was the best Reagan commercial ever. Had Reagan played the same ad and just said at the very end "You're damn skippy I will" it would've been perfect.
Neeewp. The nail in his coffin was his outright stating that he didn't care for the opinions of people taking government gibs.
Had every operator died and had they video of UBL doing the moonwalk over dead corpses humming Hip to Be Square it would've changed nothing. Absolutely nothing.
Because Benghazi changed nothing, Obamacare changed nothing, Fast and Furious changed nothing, and Syria changes nothing.
It all comes down to gibs at this point. Gibs and the hippie vote. Obama was a troll vote. Had he not been on the ticket, only the grown folks would have turned out to vote.
And as for Mondale well..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tu1r_rlUtXg
This was the best Reagan commercial ever. Had Reagan played the same ad and just said at the very end "You're damn skippy I will" it would've been perfect.
I dunno, I think if it had been a failure a lot more people would have turned out to hold their noses and pick Romney instead of staying home or voting third party.
Just look at how tired the GOP voters are of these lame candidates this election cycle. I think that's what did them in back in'12.
Here's one for you.
If it had failed, how long until we would've known?
After the election if at all.
We still haven't seen pictures of the dead body.
So..I dunno but I doubt it would've done him in
Here's one for you.
If it had failed, how long until we would've known?
After the election if at all.
We still haven't seen pictures of the dead body.
So..I dunno but I doubt it would've done him in
If the SEALs had failed we would have never heard of Operation Neptune Spear, we would however heard of the airstrikes in Abbottabad that resulted in OBL's death.
Either way I think the success of the mission sealed the election for Obama, along with Romney shootin his mouth off.
I've always thought that a "What if?" fictionalized account of a successfully EAGLE CLAW based on the plan as detailed by Col. Beckwith in "Delta Force" would make a great movie. It would have been phenomenal if the follow up plan with the CREDIBLE SPORT YMC-130H would have come to fruition.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKCl3lfAx1Q
Even if either had worked, Carter would have still lost to Reagan for the reasons stated above.
What if Neptune Spear had been a failure? Would a President Romney be up for re-election in 2016?
Ya know. I'll accept the Obama reelection if it was predicated on the death of Osama. President Romney would have been poor consolation for missing him yet again. Osama got way too many years as it was, he should have been flushed by 2006.
The Dumb Gun Collector
09-29-15, 18:56
I liked Romney. But clearly, I was in the minority.
While this was all covered in American Dad, here's my thoughts:
Bush 41 had two successful ops to his name. Panama and Desert Storm. Everybody was pretty hooah after Desert Storm.
And....he lost in 92.
I wasn't a 70s baby, but pretty much everyone was already righteously pissed at Carter over the economy and the energy crisis. We were stagnant and the Soviets were doing...well...what they're doing now. Going places and doing things.
One good op really wouldn't have raised his stature. Because he just gave the go ahead. The SF guys were the ones. Eagle Claw was a hard lesson learned. But in and of itself, it was a ballsy move despite not being a success.
Because Iran Contra happened at the peak of Reagan's tenure and Bush got elected riding Ronald Reagan's (peace be upon him) coattails.
A Mondale/Ferraro presidency would've prolonged the Soviet Union or made them more desperate. Reagan (peace be upon him) decided to outspend them instead, planned tactic or not it worked.
Plus people were scared to death of him because of his sincere interest in weaponizing space.
Keep in mind the Barracks Bombing happened under Reagan and nothing happened. No long term resentment over lack of hard retribution.
Most normal people don't care about these things unless it literally hits them in the face. 9/11 was a total no shitter. For like a few months nobody cared about petty scrim scrabble BS. Somebody was going to get their asses kicked over that. Maybe it wasn't well planned but man somebody was going to pay.
But an embassy being taken? Aside from people saying "Man, that sucks" it wasn't the thing immediately bothering them like economy and gas prices.
Just my thoughts
Interesting analysis. Iran-Contra was really the beginning of the end for Reagan, but I agree that Bush The Father won simply because of Reagan's general popularity; that and the Democratic field was pretty weak. Clinton won in 92 because of Bush's famous "read my lips" statement, and Clinton-the-man-whore ran against him.
I also agree that a military victory (or loss) generally does not predispose one to winning or losing a presidential campaign. While national security DURING a conflict will, in fact, predispose an incumbant for winning, outside of an ongoing conflict, not so much.
As an aside I would also argue whether Eagle Claw was unsuccessful. While the mission failed, that failure (and the deaths therein) was THE impetus for SOCOM, and the US prosecuted special operations missions much, much better because of that. So a tactical failure? Sure. Strategic failure? No.
As for Carter and Eagle Claw, I give him mad props for having the balls to go for it, but aside from that, his presidency was a resounding failure. Eagle Claw could have been a success, the Iranian regime overthrown, and he still would have lost the election. As for him being 'nice,' I am sure he was nice with whomever he wanted to be nice, be he treated the Secret Service and White House military staff horribly.
As for him being 'nice,' I am sure he was nice with whomever he wanted to be nice, be he treated the Secret Service and White House military staff horribly.
This is well documented. He was terribly predisposed to micromanaging as well. Right down to determining who got to use the WH tennis courts.
I find it interesting in looking back from Nixon forward in terms of how the residents cared for the WH and staff. Generally, the "R's" were much more respectful than the "D's". Simply look at the last two "D's" and the last two "R's".
As for Carter and Eagle Claw, I give him mad props for having the balls to go for it, but aside from that, his presidency was a resounding failure. Eagle Claw could have been a success, the Iranian regime overthrown, and he still would have lost the election. As for him being 'nice,' I am sure he was nice with whomever he wanted to be nice, be he treated the Secret Service and White House military staff horribly.
That's actually pretty telling. If you want to see what kind of person somebody actually is, watch how they treat a waiter at a restaurant.
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