View Full Version : For M4C Real Estate Moguls: Zillow
Do you find Zillow to be accurate? I ask because I'm going to put a house on the market (finally getting out of the NE!) and Zillow claims my house is worth far more than the broker recommends I list it for. She thinks Zillow is way over estimating the value. What's your experience and or research find? Looking at comps around me, etc, Zillow seems closer to what I would have expected. 3-4 bed 2 bath going for 7-800k, zillow lists value of my 2/2 at 600k and broker thinks 500K. Obviously, I prefer the Zillow estimate! I can say I'm in a very hot market with limited inventory.
Why not find a reputable, local appraiser to appraise the value your house? I'd do that before I'd trust a website. It also seems like anyone can be a real estate agent nowadays so I'm not sure how much faith I'd put in their word either.
the estimate was close, very close, to where we finally settled. But I didn't have much faith in it beyond a point for negotiation because sometimes it varied widely from what homes we viewed listed at.
That being said, it's only as good as the inputs. It looks at some basic specs on the house and the local market. If you look at the description, it'll say up front the range they provide is a 70% confidence interval. So statistical jargon aside, just say 70% of the time a house is put up for sale, it'll end up in that RANGE.
How big is the range? it'll vary from house to house, market to market. is your broker in the range? I assume you've already shopped to see what similar homes are listed for.
Why not find a reputable, local appraiser to appraise the value your house? I'd do that before I'd trust a website. It also seems like anyone can be a real estate agent nowadays so I'm not sure how much faith I'd put in their word either.
Broker I'm working with his very experienced and sold me the place in 97. I just don't think she's taking into account some factors that would put the house closer to 6 than 5, such as proximity to schools, very exclusive neighborhood people wait years to get into, very low inventory, proximity to commuter rails, etc. etc that Zillow may be accounting for in their metrics. Or, I'm a typical seller who thinks his house is worth far more than it is :cool:
the estimate was close, very close, to where we finally settled. But I didn't have much faith in it beyond a point for negotiation because sometimes it varied widely from what homes we viewed listed at.
That being said, it's only as good as the inputs. It looks at some basic specs on the house and the local market. If you look at the description, it'll say up front the range they provide is a 70% confidence interval. So statistical jargon aside, just say 70% of the time a house is put up for sale, it'll end up in that RANGE.
How big is the range? it'll vary from house to house, market to market. is your broker in the range? I assume you've already shopped to see what similar homes are listed for.
That's the thing, she's well out of the range and if Zillow was that far off normally, no one would use them. Zillow was spot on for a place I got in FL for example.
Zillow has it as $602,820 (range $561K-$645K) and she thinks I should list at at 500k.
TheChunkNorris
03-30-16, 09:16
That's the thing, she's well out of the range and if Zillow was that far off normally, no one would use them. Zillow was spot on for a place I got in FL for example.
Zillow has it as $602,820 (range $561K-$645K) and she thinks I should list at at 500k.
I found Zillow to be slow with the updates. That estimate can be several months old even if it's showing current on their charts. Your agent might have more current sales statistics through the county/area than Zillow does. Have you noticed any houses go for sale in that area? You can look that up, it's all public record.
Crow Hunter
03-30-16, 09:33
That's the thing, she's well out of the range and if Zillow was that far off normally, no one would use them. Zillow was spot on for a place I got in FL for example.
Zillow has it as $602,820 (range $561K-$645K) and she thinks I should list at at 500k.
It is always easier to lower the price than to raise it.
The only time I would think it might be beneficial to have a lower price is if you could stimulate a bidding war between 2 or 3 people that might drive it up higher. That is a chance that I wouldn't want to take, personally.
I would tell them to sell for what you felt it was worth. You lived there. I recently sold a house and the broker recommended that it be priced much lower than I wanted to price it. I didn't price it where he wanted to, I kind of did a middle ground around where I thought it should sell, but I should have priced it even higher than I did because it sold in less than 3 weeks for asking price.
Don't forget a realtor has a much of an incentive to get a quick sale as they do to get a higher priced sale. A quick sale with little input for them is probably worth more than a higher commission sale that takes them several months to complete.
If it isn't going to hurt you to let it sit for a while before selling, I would price it what Zillow showing. Most modern people are going to do a search on Zillow anyway and if that was your starting point and they "got it" for less than Zillow was showing but still more than your Realtor was recommending it is a "Win-Win" for both parties.
At least in my locale, the tax appraisals are usually right at 85% of the actual sales prices +/- a few $1,000 on everything that I have ever sold or bought. I don't know about your location but it might be another data point to look at.
Listen to Crow Hunter thumbs up
Don't forget a realtor has a much of an incentive to get a quick sale as they do to get a higher priced sale. A quick sale with little input for them is probably worth more than a higher commission sale that takes them several months to complete.
Zillow is highly inaccurate in my experience.
bullittmcqueen
03-30-16, 10:15
Zillow is not that useful for the monetary values in my experience but it gets your house a ton of internet traffic. A lot of potential buyers look at zillow once your house is on the market, so make sure your agent uses good quality pics on there.
As far as estimating what your house is worth, don't believe it. Go with the comps for other similar houses in your area.
It is always easier to lower the price than to raise it...
I would tell them to sell for what you felt it was worth...
Don't forget a realtor has a much of an incentive to get a quick sale as they do to get a higher priced sale. A quick sale with little input for them is probably worth more than a higher commission sale that takes them several months to complete.
Solid post. Like getting a new job, shoot for the moon, you can always be flexible and come down on your price later but you can't go upwards, typically. Good luck!
It is always easier to lower the price than to raise it.
The only time I would think it might be beneficial to have a lower price is if you could stimulate a bidding war between 2 or 3 people that might drive it up higher. That is a chance that I wouldn't want to take, personally.
I would tell them to sell for what you felt it was worth. You lived there. I recently sold a house and the broker recommended that it be priced much lower than I wanted to price it. I didn't price it where he wanted to, I kind of did a middle ground around where I thought it should sell, but I should have priced it even higher than I did because it sold in less than 3 weeks for asking price.
Don't forget a realtor has a much of an incentive to get a quick sale as they do to get a higher priced sale. A quick sale with little input for them is probably worth more than a higher commission sale that takes them several months to complete.
If it isn't going to hurt you to let it sit for a while before selling, I would price it what Zillow showing. Most modern people are going to do a search on Zillow anyway and if that was your starting point and they "got it" for less than Zillow was showing but still more than your Realtor was recommending it is a "Win-Win" for both parties.
At least in my locale, the tax appraisals are usually right at 85% of the actual sales prices +/- a few $1,000 on everything that I have ever sold or bought. I don't know about your location but it might be another data point to look at.
My approach is in line with your advice and I'm going to price it at the lower Zollow range (585k) and see what happens. I'm not a time motivated seller per se, and if I can't get at least 550K for it, can rent it all day for 2.5 -2.8k per month. As you say, better or worse, people do use Zillow and seeing it priced on the lower end of the zetimate should also create some interest there.
Zillow is not typically accurate; however, it is usually on the low side of estimates, not the high side. So this is an anomaly.
I agree with Crow Hunter on this.
I found my current rental on zillow, it was good for that.
SomeOtherGuy
03-30-16, 13:31
In the last two years I've sold one house and attempted to buy several (one successfully) and have been able to watch Zillow vs. realtor prices vs. transaction prices. In my area, which is a small town, somewhat remote, and has relatively few sales, Zillow is not at all accurate and can be far off the mark in either direction, high or low. So, here, I would not trust Zillow for anything.
However, in areas that are very liquid and have lots of sales, and where the house/condo at issue is basically a commodity type rather than something unique, I would expect Zillow to be much closer to accurate estimates.
Anyway, it doesn't really matter because you should price it high to start and lower it if you don't get enough traffic, or lots of traffic but no offers.
Will, I have been appraising real estate for over 30 years. I do not use Zillow. Our latest MLS tax service upgrade has an AVM feature. AVM=Automated Valuation Model. That is what Zillow does as well.
I have never seen it be able to get things right except in cookie cutter neighborhood with lots of sales activity.
Now that doesn't mean your agent is wrong or that Zillow didn't get yours right.
Not sure what kind of neighborhood you live in but for instance here, I can go into an older historic area and for all physical and location purposes Zillow would think a home on one street for $500K was the same the some around the corner for $800K if they were of similar age, size, garages, lot size, etc.. Now here's where it get's interesting. Let's say Zillow knows the $500K house sold in 2013 for $450K. It will think ok, it sold for $450K then $500K.. .that's a reliable data point. Then it sees an $800K sale a street away. What does it do? Let's say the house has never sold before for decades. ... and that owners put $200K in upgrades and remodeling and that simply turning that corner to the next street is a better street that historically has the highest values... maybe due to a view, or some such. So Zillow though will really only see $450K to $500K then this other $800K... It's probably going say the next house or yours would be $500-$525K because it doesn't know how to handle that $800K property due to lack of info. Generally an MLS will that needed info. The complete opposite is true as well. It could put $750K estimate because it had really good data on a couple high priced homes and really poor data on a lower sale. It doesn't know where you align nor which dynamic is the one it should be focused on.
So generally appraisers hate AVMs but sometimes they can be close if there is a lot of good and similar data.
Your agent -should- give you what is know as... well actually there are two things.
BPO - Broker Price Opinion - this is where your broker basically does an appraisal and they usually get paid for it. It's a low cost way around paying for an appraisal.
CMA - Comparable Market Analysis - again like a mini appraisal -- This is what your agent should give you.
They should give you 3 active properties that you will be competing against and 3 or more recently closed sales. The analysis will demonstrate to you the differences in these properties and how yours would adjust to them. Your agent should be able to show you pictures of the interiors and list the upgrades and features and the size of the home. BTW, if you were doing a corporate relocation the company would provide you with the names of several agents and several appraisers. You would then have the agents present their CMAs to you personally and discuss their conclusions. Then you would pick three appraisers whom you can call and interview beforehand. Two appraisers would then appraise your property and if the results were not within 5% of each other, they would send the 3rd out. Then you pick your agent and put the property on the market. So that is a minimum of 3 people choosing 6 properties each and discussing why they thing their opinion is correct AND they are all going to be pretty close to each other. that could be as many as 18 different comparables although often there is overlapping of comparable use. So that -single agent theory- is not standard. You don't have to commit to an agent. They will all do a CMA for you in hopes of getting the listing. Some agents will high ball it just to get the listing.... not a good idea... You want to be priced just above the going rate. This sky is the limit and work your way down is not a good idea. High but not so high it becomes shop worn. High to the point someone would negotiate with you but no higher.
Realtor.Com / Your local offices / Surprisingly just typing in a street address will pull up real estate listing with lots of info. You need to see the insides of those homes, get the sizes, upgrades, and compare them to yours.
Finally your City or county assessor will have all the recorded sales. Some of their data is really good. Depends on the office. But find all the sales for the year for your community and competitive communities. Get the addresses you think are good. either look them up online or have your agent print you the MLS sheet.
Most MLS systems can print Agent reports and Public reports. Sometimes important info gets left off Public reports. Be sure to ask if in doubt.
If you are in one of those old neighborhoods where people spend $600K on a house then move in and spend another $250K in remodeling you can really see some crazy price swings. If the homes are newer you might only see a $50K or less swing maybe because someone remodeled a kitchen. But your agent should be able to explain $100K difference. You are in the 20% range and that is basically unacceptable. The nationwide standard for relocation appraising is 5%... iow, the companies get upset if we start missing the eventual sales price by more than that. The reason being, the company has bought the owner out, possible for too much money... OR... the owner is bought out, leaves town, then finds out their home sold for 10% more than they got. The goal is to get the homeowner within about 2.5% of the likely future sale price so they can move on. ( two appraisals within 5% and split the difference $100K & $105K the owner get $102,500 and leaves town ). If that house sold for $80K or $120K, I would be getting a call asking me what my problem was. That's sort of where you are with your agent. They should be able to show you rather easily why their point is good. Then if you just call 2 other agents for an opinion and don;t reveal anything, you -should- get some very similar data conclusions.
None of this really costs you anything and it should take a lot of the doubt out of play.
In my neighborhood, Zillow was way off when I bought my house. I'm guessing it wasn't keeping up with the market fluctuations from 2008-2012. Locally I have found Realtor.com to be a great tool as it shows what the houses nearby sold for.
Either way..... Holy Shit thats some expensive houses up there!
brickboy240
03-30-16, 15:01
I am betting that a 500-600k dollar house in MA is like our 120k dollar houses down here.
...whew!
The "comps" are the biggest thing.
What similar properties are for sale and more importantly, what has recently sold in your area.
This is what potential buyers are looking at when they're finding the best value for their money.
PatrioticDisorder
03-30-16, 17:55
Zillow tends to lag a bit, the housing market in many areas has slowed down... That said I am no expert on the Boston real estate market, we all know real estate is notoriously high.
Will, I have been appraising real estate for over 30 years. I do not use Zillow. Our latest MLS tax service upgrade has an AVM feature. AVM=Automated Valuation Model. That is what Zillow does as well.
I have never seen it be able to get things right except in cookie cutter neighborhood with lots of sales activity.
Now that doesn't mean your agent is wrong or that Zillow didn't get yours right.
Not sure what kind of neighborhood you live in but for instance here, I can go into an older historic area and for all physical and location purposes Zillow would think a home on one street for $500K was the same the some around the corner for $800K if they were of similar age, size, garages, lot size, etc.. Now here's where it get's interesting. Let's say Zillow knows the $500K house sold in 2013 for $450K. It will think ok, it sold for $450K then $500K.. .that's a reliable data point. Then it sees an $800K sale a street away. What does it do? Let's say the house has never sold before for decades. ... and that owners put $200K in upgrades and remodeling and that simply turning that corner to the next street is a better street that historically has the highest values... maybe due to a view, or some such. So Zillow though will really only see $450K to $500K then this other $800K... It's probably going say the next house or yours would be $500-$525K because it doesn't know how to handle that $800K property due to lack of info. Generally an MLS will that needed info. The complete opposite is true as well. It could put $750K estimate because it had really good data on a couple high priced homes and really poor data on a lower sale. It doesn't know where you align nor which dynamic is the one it should be focused on.
So generally appraisers hate AVMs but sometimes they can be close if there is a lot of good and similar data.
Your agent -should- give you what is know as... well actually there are two things.
BPO - Broker Price Opinion - this is where your broker basically does an appraisal and they usually get paid for it. It's a low cost way around paying for an appraisal.
CMA - Comparable Market Analysis - again like a mini appraisal -- This is what your agent should give you.
They should give you 3 active properties that you will be competing against and 3 or more recently closed sales. The analysis will demonstrate to you the differences in these properties and how yours would adjust to them. Your agent should be able to show you pictures of the interiors and list the upgrades and features and the size of the home. BTW, if you were doing a corporate relocation the company would provide you with the names of several agents and several appraisers. You would then have the agents present their CMAs to you personally and discuss their conclusions. Then you would pick three appraisers whom you can call and interview beforehand. Two appraisers would then appraise your property and if the results were not within 5% of each other, they would send the 3rd out. Then you pick your agent and put the property on the market. So that is a minimum of 3 people choosing 6 properties each and discussing why they thing their opinion is correct AND they are all going to be pretty close to each other. that could be as many as 18 different comparables although often there is overlapping of comparable use. So that -single agent theory- is not standard. You don't have to commit to an agent. They will all do a CMA for you in hopes of getting the listing. Some agents will high ball it just to get the listing.... not a good idea... You want to be priced just above the going rate. This sky is the limit and work your way down is not a good idea. High but not so high it becomes shop worn. High to the point someone would negotiate with you but no higher.
Realtor.Com / Your local offices / Surprisingly just typing in a street address will pull up real estate listing with lots of info. You need to see the insides of those homes, get the sizes, upgrades, and compare them to yours.
Finally your City or county assessor will have all the recorded sales. Some of their data is really good. Depends on the office. But find all the sales for the year for your community and competitive communities. Get the addresses you think are good. either look them up online or have your agent print you the MLS sheet.
Most MLS systems can print Agent reports and Public reports. Sometimes important info gets left off Public reports. Be sure to ask if in doubt.
If you are in one of those old neighborhoods where people spend $600K on a house then move in and spend another $250K in remodeling you can really see some crazy price swings. If the homes are newer you might only see a $50K or less swing maybe because someone remodeled a kitchen. But your agent should be able to explain $100K difference. You are in the 20% range and that is basically unacceptable. The nationwide standard for relocation appraising is 5%... iow, the companies get upset if we start missing the eventual sales price by more than that. The reason being, the company has bought the owner out, possible for too much money... OR... the owner is bought out, leaves town, then finds out their home sold for 10% more than they got. The goal is to get the homeowner within about 2.5% of the likely future sale price so they can move on. ( two appraisals within 5% and split the difference $100K & $105K the owner get $102,500 and leaves town ). If that house sold for $80K or $120K, I would be getting a call asking me what my problem was. That's sort of where you are with your agent. They should be able to show you rather easily why their point is good. Then if you just call 2 other agents for an opinion and don;t reveal anything, you -should- get some very similar data conclusions.
None of this really costs you anything and it should take a lot of the doubt out of play.
Great intel, thanx. In bold is similar to my area. Worse yet in terms of accurate data points is very low inventory. I have a house next block over a bit larger than sold for 750K+ and all around me are the type of houses you describe, some older but with a lot of work, some expanded, some not sold since 1960 for 25, etc, so numbers are all over the place. It's a straight up WAG at this time it appears. I suspect the broker closer to real T than Zillow on that one, but I do think she's on the lower end vs high.
The "comps" are the biggest thing.
What similar properties are for sale and more importantly, what has recently sold in your area.
This is what potential buyers are looking at when they're finding the best value for their money.
See see response to tb-av. Comps are of surprisingly little help at the moment because houses are so different and so few recently sold, and for vastly different amounts, etc. There's also a few issues very specific to the area the comps can't cover. So, She's low at 500K, Zillow probably high at 600k+ and what the market will bear probably in the middle some place. I'm going to try middle-high with expectation of ending up in the middle. Market may continue to go up, but my gut tells me things may get very strange in the next year both nationally and internationally and I'd like to reduce my risk while being done with the NE due to weather, taxes, politics, gun laws, Mass holes, traffic, and general cost of living.
See see response to tb-av. Comps are of surprisingly little help at the moment because houses are so different and so few recently sold, and for vastly different amounts, etc. There's also a few issues very specific to the area the comps can't cover. So, She's low at 500K, Zillow probably high at 600k+ and what the market will bear probably in the middle some place. I'm going to try middle-high with expectation of ending up in the middle. Market may continue to go up, but my gut tells me things may get very strange in the next year both nationally and internationally and I'd like to reduce my risk while being done with the NE due to weather, taxes, politics, gun laws, Mass holes, traffic, and general cost of living.
Good plan.
Last year was the first opportunity for many people to switch houses after being locked in / underwater for the last 7 years and houses were moving pretty quickly around here.
This season looks like things will move quickly also.
But, I'm expecting the other shoe to drop later in the year, perhaps September, and jack everything up again.
FromMyColdDeadHand
03-30-16, 21:34
I just use Zillow to figure out what my friends and co-workers houses are worth.
Is the algorithm really that complex? Average cost per square foot, lot size, maybe a tweaker for bathroom/bedroom count along with how it sold the last time. I don't think they are sweating the details on those calculations.
That's the thing, she's well out of the range and if Zillow was that far off normally, no one would use them. Zillow was spot on for a place I got in FL for example.
Zillow has it as $602,820 (range $561K-$645K) and she thinks I should list at at 500k.
She might be taking in to account the psychology of the numbers. People might not look because it's over half a million. It's your house brother, you are driving the bus! I think an appraisal is a good idea too. Your price also gives you more wiggle room. You might sell for 500-550. If you ask for 500 you might sell for 450 or less. Follow your instincts. Most buyers web savvy and will look at Zillow too, that is in your favor.
I didn't read this whole post, but I can tell you that my wife is a real estate agent in south Florida selling mostly homes over $1Mil. She is constantly having to send both buyers and sellers to this link because they all take Zillow as gospel when even the CEO acknowledges that there are issues: http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-harney-20150208-story.html.
If you Google it, you'll find a ton of similar issues with it. She tells then to use realtor.com if they have to estimate, but ultimately a local realtor is the best bet.
She might be taking in to account the psychology of the numbers. People might not look because it's over half a million. It's your house brother, you are driving the bus! I think an appraisal is a good idea too. Your price also gives you more wiggle room. You might sell for 500-550. If you ask for 500 you might sell for 450 or less. Follow your instincts. Most buyers web savvy and will look at Zillow too, that is in your favor.
That's a cheap house in this area. A real fixer upper would be in the 400s, and medium priced 3/2 would be upper 600k - 700k+ and up, dependent on lot size, etc. My house is technically a 2/2 which does limit value (thought it's almost 2k sqf with lots of space for expansion), the location, lot size, etc, makes it's value. No one is looking in this area for homes under half a mill unless they expect to put serious $$ into it as a gut job or it's tiny, like 800s sqf, and those are very rare now.
Great intel, thanx. In bold is similar to my area. Worse yet in terms of accurate data points is very low inventory. I have a house next block over a bit larger than sold for 750K+ and all around me are the type of houses you describe, some older but with a lot of work, some expanded, some not sold since 1960 for 25, etc, so numbers are all over the place. It's a straight up WAG at this time it appears. I suspect the broker closer to real T than Zillow on that one, but I do think she's on the lower end vs high.
It's much less of a guess after you get on the phone with the agents and have access to the MLS info. Our MLS here will have photos of all the main rooms. Kitchen, Master, FR, Baths and any special features at a minimum. Then aside from the basic details the agent will have a paragraph describing other things. It might read... hvac 2015, new roof 2013, Basement B-Dry system ( $10K this past summer ). OR... Something like two story addition to ad Master suite on second floor and expand kitchen in 2014 at $250K. Heated floors, remote control shower in master bath. wolf, Dacor, SubZero in Kitchen, warming ovens, ice makers, compactors, marble counter baking area..
So if you see that house and one just like that are $550K and $800K --- there's your answer right there. that now makes perfect sense. The only question is now, which one do most accurately align with. If your place has not been modernized then you might align with the $550K. If you have spent a quarter mil on yours recently to modernize then you might even be over the $800K if the market is hot.
The concepts of figuring out what it's worth are not hard at all. The hard part is looking at everything in the dark. No data. No facts. That's why I am telling you, if you have an honest agent they --should, with great ease--- be able to explain to you exactly what is going on.
Will imagine I asked you... Hey I want a handgun. You say a VP9 would be good. I say what about a 1911? You could, if you wanted to, describe to me the difference between a 1911 and VP9, as well show me a PPQ, or a revolver and explain the major differences. Then you could show me the 1911 varieties and why the prices are so different. then all the VP9s and why the prices are so similar.
Your agent -should- be able to show you, with words and pictures what's going on. It's not like she doesn't have access to the information.
The "no comps" is an illusion. the "no data because someone hasn't gathered the facts" is a reality. Some agents, the kind you don't want to associate with, might be motivated to simply price it low and get rid of it knowing you have already moved... they won't have to see you again. If not they surely can provide you with some details of these sails and listings.
There are always comps. What's missing is the specific data, but that's out there too, it just takes phone calls and reading MLS and tax data.
Again if you were a corporate relo, here is what the brokers would have to complete... http://mypsphomes.com/Files/Forms/Relocation/BMA/ERC%20BMA%20FORM%202011.pdf
Here is what I have to complete ... This is not mine... it looks like a sample or demo but the form is there... only thing I can find... http://www.worldwideerc.org/Events/Documents/Webinar-Presentations/2010-Appraisal-Report-Sample-Appraisal.pdf
Those forms are intended for a corporation to determine what a home would likely sell for in 90-120 days ( which is not necessarily Market Value if the market is running slower than that. )
If you want that form blank to fill in, I can email you one. Can also email a regular FNMA mortgage appraisal (Form 1004)
All you have to do is enter the addresses you can find then keep digging until you fill in the blanks - don't guess in the dark.
If you want blanks just PM me and I'll make you pdf's. But your agent should be giving you something that resembles these documents as far as the grids go and actually showing you why their number is so different.
There are comps but they need to be adjusted for differences. A collection of them should point you to a pretty realistic price point.
You have to get your hands on the specifics.
brickboy240
03-31-16, 11:02
I wish I could sell my house her for what the county appraisal office says it is worth! LOL
Our county appraisal district loves to raise our appraisals every year...anywhere between 3 and 10%. Nobody comes out and looks at the houses, they have no clue as to whether or not your neighborhood has gone up or down hill...they just raise it. Then, you have to set up a meeting with them, if you want to protest the appraisal and bring in proof that your house is not worth whatever they say it is appraised at. Your fight might get some or none of the raise removed. My 7-85 increases in value usually get lowered to around 2-3% increase. Still not a fair picture of what our houses could actually sell for.
Yes, it is possible for the appraised value of your house to almost double in 10 years! Nice, huh?
I honestly do not know how anyone could ever retire in this county...the appraisal creep will burn up all of your pension or retirement savings. Many people I know have moved way out of Houston and Harris County to retire, just for those reasons.
The County Appraisal District is staffed by people that are appointed not elected. We cannot fire them in the next election cycle. Our politicians love to say, "we have not raised your tax rate since 1999." Well...that is partially true. The RATE does not go up BUT your appraisal will creep up 2-10% every year in this county.
I wish this would change or maybe we'd get a lowered cap on how high they can raise it annually but no relief in sight.
I know for sure, I would never retire in this city...who can afford it?
No one is looking in this area for homes under half a mill unless they expect to put serious $$ into it as a gut job
The top agents always have people in their phone book looking for those. The old property that can be expanded. It's an investor purchase. Investors by nature want to buy below market. Just thought I would toss that out there.
Based on everything you have said so far, I would be especially careful. If you are in one of those areas where there is no more land but your home is conducive to major expansion from say a half mil to 1.2Mil... that's a pretty hot item... even if someone wants to sit on it for years... at least it is around here.
Will, I have been appraising real estate for over 30 years. I do not use Zillow. Our latest MLS tax service upgrade has an AVM feature. AVM=Automated Valuation Model. That is what Zillow does as well.
I have never seen it be able to get things right except in cookie cutter neighborhood with lots of sales activity.
This is exactly my experience. On neighborhoods with many custom homes, lower density lots, etc, its out of whack.
It also uses things like tax office sq footage appraisals, which are often way off and do not account for finished daylight basements, etc.
Not a fan, and you really have to be selective. But it's usually error on the low side.
I wish I could sell my house her for what the county appraisal office says it is worth! LOL
They are required to revalue your home to Market Value every year by law. If it's wrong and you know it. You could get an appraisal. I have never not had one of my appraisals be successful in lowering people's assessments. What happens though is that the county or city will have a time frame for you to do so.
You get your new assessment.
You get it appraised
You take that appraisal and the form they give you to contest back in the time frame they allow.
IF-- which should not happen if the appraiser explained things correctly, but IF they don't want to move, there is generally panel that meets. It will be a panel of public real estate people, appraisers and someone from the county assessors office.
If things are as wrong as you say they are it should not be that big of a deal to fix.
Your tax department may have appraisers working there, but they do not do appraisals. They do mass assessments. They develop figures from data and apply them in a equitable fashion across the board such that every citizen in that neighborhood gets treated the same. After that, if you provide reliable and accurate data that indicates your property has a different Market Value then they should change it. Again they are required by law to try to assess at Market Value.
Sometimes they will want to come out to your property. That is usually if you don't provide an appraisal. But generally speaking they don't want sit across a table from an appraisal panel saying yeah, the appraisal looks good, what's the problem? It's just a waste of everyone's time. At the same time, you can't just roll in there and say it's too high.
I don;t see too many high assessments around here. Sometimes, in a neighborhood where you have many near $M and $M+ homes and you happen to have one that hasn't had a lick of work done sine it was built in 1950 then your assessment could get too high. Get it fixed and they will place notes in your file that explains why it got lowered so the people next year will not jack it back up.
It's a pain, but they want professional documented proof as a CYA for them. They are sort of like the Judge in traffic court, they have heard every story under the Sun and can't just randomly go changing things because again... they have to apply whatever they do in an equitable fashion across the board until such time they are presented with specific facts that dispute their conclusions.
ramairthree
03-31-16, 16:17
I bought my current home last year from very motivated sellers for 20% less than its value.
I finally got my other house emptied recently and before even listed for sale offer at 25% over Zillow estimate.
It seems some things are hard for it to pinpoint.
Motivated sellers leaving homes they no longer have the finances for,
One beach house having a large flat lot to the beach, while every other one in the neighborhood has a cliff,
Homes renovated on the inside with some I the neighborhood not, etc.
The "comps" are the biggest thing.
What similar properties are for sale and more importantly, what has recently sold in your area.
This is what potential buyers are looking at when they're finding the best value for their money.
The smarter people my age who succeed in real estate use Zillow as a tool for quickly finding 'comps' that they can manually go through, and use that to build justification for their valuation really quickly. Considering that's how anybody is likely shopping for the property, it's a pretty solid approach.
Zillow is the Hesse/Vulcan/Blackthorn of the Real estate world.
It is inaccurate and corrupt. It exists by taking the hard work of others and selling that work to people.
Please find local broker. Any number of them are more than happy to give you a CMA.
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