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View Full Version : What next for the AR15 market now that Trump is elected? (A Stick Op-ed piece)



Stickman
11-16-16, 22:22
A Stick Op-ed piece, arguments, agreements, and generic gnashing of teeth is encouraged in comments.


Trump is now our President, or at least getting ready to be sworn in. Obviously there is great rejoicing as the Democrat in power, as well as the wannabe successor were no friends of the Second Amendment, or firearm owners in general. How can anyone forget the April 2008 comment of then President Obama when he talked about Americans saying, "They get bitter, they cling to guns or religion", "as a way to explain their frustrations."

How very clear it was at this point for anyone who hadn't been paying attention, that the elected official had nothing but contempt for those he looked down on, especially Christians and gun owning Americans, like those who founded this country. School and work place shootings kept the administration on its toes seeking a way to ban firearms, or enact heavy restriction, though at a federal level not that much changed. States took up their local fight, with the left coast, and some of the other coastal states enacted registration mandates. High on the list of those who opposed firearms was the AR15. While falsely labeled by the media as "automatic", a "weapon of war", or "assault weapon", the AR15 was used in almost no crimes. Instead, we found over and over that illegally possessed firearms (usually pistols) were used in large scale shootings, local crimes, and gang warfare. Terrorism was a word the administration had a hard time using, but calling for constitutional pillage made one popular in circles of the left.

With Hillary Rodham Clinton as the Democrats nominee, and looking to be an easy victor by media reportings and polls, many people took to stocking up on firearms. The AR15, along with its component pieces (ammo and magazines) were a common fixate for many who were looking to make a quick buck flipping AR receivers. The last several years of President Obama brought a surge of bargain basement AR15s and low prices. Most of the items were found to be of exceedingly low quality, with some companies selling rejected parts, and others selling airsoft pieces to the less than knowledgeable masses.

With any group of people, there will always be fans, as well as detractors. In the case of the cheap AR15 parts, we saw lowers at prices around $30-40, and people gobbled them up as fast as they could. Many of these people were clear and vocal about their desire to flip the lowers and make massive profit if and when new legislation came about, or a new Democrat came into office. Taking the illegality of buying weapons to sell away for a minute (without proper licensing), let us think for a moment about what the flooded market now contains. Junk. Pure, unadulterated junk. Junk and rejected parts being resold is nothing new, nor is it unexpected that people would try to defend their purchases claiming "it is just as good" as Colt. The question we look at now is what happens next?

In talking with a few industry friends, there is a strong feeling there is going to be a shift. The days of buying substandard items is diminishing, primarily because the need to stock up is gone for the moment. Add in the glut of rubbish which will be making its way to the second hand market, and we find a exceedingly soft market for the dregs of AR15 names. For most firearm purchasers, the guns they buy are looked at as a means to protect, hunt, collect, or for sport. What Obama did was create a secondary market that will take years to fade away, with generic hoarding giving way to angry wives and regret.

I believe we can expect to see additional firearm sales engaging the consumer in the form of shotguns, and hunting weapons. An example of this would be a few years back when Obama was getting elected and a panic was ongoing. A store in the PNW was selling Colt 6920s for $6,000 each. When called out on it by a customer who said he couldn't afford it, he was told the Colts weren't for him, they were for Boeing union employees who would buy them and just work some extra shifts at double or triple time. The guys would get bored with them and trade or sell them back towards other things later. Did it work? Well, the store sold out of Colts. Of course not all the weapons were traded back, but evidently a bunch were and it was for upper end hunting rifles which is what those guys probably should have bought in the first place.

Another area where we can expect to see a surge is upper end pieces, and generic upgrades. When bolts break at the cam pin, it is hard to deny your problems. When cheap optics or irons break, a weapon is useless. Magazines that don't work, weapons that don't cycle etc etc.. People who learn they have rubbish in their hands are much more inclined to fix it with decent parts than they are with additional slop pieces.

Lastly, what reason is there to buy slop anymore? Saving money to buy the scrapings of low tolerance suspect weapons is akin to the gang banger buying a Jennings on the street. With a Pro 2A President coming into power, there is no reason not to save a little longer, and get a Colt or upper end weapon, custom build, or pieces that aren't suspect. Some people will nod their head in agreement when they read this, others won't care either way, and some will get irate. If you are one that gets irate, good, you have paid decent money and been shafted for long enough, it is time you recognized this and did something about it.

This is a Stick Op-ed piece, not a reflection of the board, its users, persons and/ or companies that drink, drunk text, harass, or work with Stick in any way, shape or form.
Comments are encouraged, but try not to use many syllables as the writer has a lifetime of loud noises, fighting, and being a grunt in both MIL and LE uniforms. Large words may only confuse him.

Nocalsocal
11-16-16, 23:18
Interesting take. A few of my partners are heading to a gun show this weekend and all I could say was to hold off on any purchases for now.
Some are looking for parts and the others are grabbing ammo. I'm under the impression that prices will continue to lower and that it maybe wise to see where it goes.
Myself, I'm saving up for a nice Colt or BCM that is now at a more reasonable price. Post election win for me!

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Stickman
11-16-16, 23:28
Interesting take. A few of my partners are heading to a gun show this weekend and all I could say was to hold off on any purchases for now.
Some are looking for parts and the others are grabbing ammo. I'm under the impression that prices will continue to lower and that it maybe wise to see where it goes.
Myself, I'm saving up for a nice Colt or BCM that is now at a more reasonable price. Post election win for me!

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It might be a bit early, but I would guess some guys are going to be looking to offload sooner rather than later before the market gets ultra soft. In a few months, the Anderson lowers and other cheap stuff won't be worth what was paid for it. Especially if they are still being pumped out at the factory.

Nocalsocal
11-16-16, 23:55
I thought the same too. I'm feeling that the production side was pumping out products as fast as they could to flood the market in case the election doomsday happened. Now the sellers have inflated overstock to get rid of.

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Hayseed
11-17-16, 00:03
I thought the same too. I'm feeling that the production side was pumping out products as fast as they could to flood the market in case the election doomsday happened. Now the sellers have inflated overstock to get rid of.

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Palmetto, anyone?

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Stickman
11-17-16, 00:48
Palmetto, anyone?

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I wrote it trying to avoid getting into company names, but there are companies who have set their relative value at near zero. I think back to when CavArms had a distributor who dumped lowers on the market for something like $50 to get rid of them. I think they were mad, or maybe a clearance, but the point was they had set the value of the item to dirt levels. That did more damage to the pricing than anything else. People looked at that and figured the lowers were worth $50. Who is going to look at a bottom of the line lower now, that has known QC issues, and want to pay much of anything for it?

mark5pt56
11-17-16, 09:39
I believe that a good number of smaller firms will fold eventually as the market will be flooded if production isn't curtailed. Companies that are firm in the market will remain strong, although they will need to be competitive and innovative as well. I don't think we will see much concerning value with quality offerings but the lower end ones will suffer as they have in the past.
I would caution folks not the "relax" so to speak with the never ending submission of legislation that is a constant threat. This is the time for good things to be done in that regard. I do hope that there continues to be market innovation.
Of course there will always be the folks that believe an bottom feeder brand X is the same as let's say a BCM/Colt, etc. I know most of the people I know are in this camp and I've given up trying to convince them otherwise. Heck, they still think a 1n7 can't shoot 55 grain ball, you know the old wood and steel crowd.

DBake
11-17-16, 14:49
Always buy quality. I hope to see BCM have time in the next four years to produce a 7.62 rifle now.

dmd08
11-17-16, 16:58
My prediction is we see the return of free bcgs with uppers and sub $300 cases of brass plinking ammo. Maybe even ...... .22lr.

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C4IGrant
11-17-16, 17:06
After a collective pause, people are right back to calling and e-mailing us for quality AR's (BCM, Colt, etc), which I am still out of and remain hard to get.


C4

daniel87
11-17-16, 19:09
After a collective pause, people are right back to calling and e-mailing us for quality AR's (BCM, Colt, etc), which I am still out of and remain hard to get.


C4
So buisness as usual

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GSMullins
11-17-16, 21:35
I think (and hope) that HB 3799 (Hearing Protection Act of 2015) should become law. Everyone needs to support it. Eighty-six years have passed since Congress passed the NFA of 1935, and it's arguable that it was wrong-headed then, and is even more so now. No suppressor is truly hearing-safe; no Hollywood scene truly depicts that a suppressor makes a firearm discharge indistinguishable from background noise; no criminal is guaranteed safe from identification from a firearms crime committed with a suppressor. Few crimes committed ever involve a suppressor. Why are we paying a $200 tax and waiting months for approval for a product that's the moral equivalent of the RU-486 "morning after pill"? Digame......

sevenhelmet
11-17-16, 21:49
Agree, Stickman. I'd take it a step further and say why acquire shoddy gear in the first place? Buy once, cry once. I hope all the guys who bought up crap gear in the hopes of flipping it for profit choke on their own inventory.

That said, I stocked up... just enough. Prior to the election, I felt I had enough to survive lean times if they came (being stationed in CA, lean times are coming anyway :mad:). But post-election, I don't feel I stocked up TOO much. So, just enough. Even better, my time in CA is temporary, so it's nice to be reasonably sure I'll still have the ability to acquire suppressors and such later on.

C4IGrant
11-18-16, 10:37
So buisness as usual

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Pretty much. We will see 5.56 bulk ammo prices fall (as tons of distributors and manufacturers have been hoarding it).




C4

Kenneth
11-18-16, 11:03
Pretty much. We will see 5.56 bulk ammo prices fall (as tons of distributors and manufacturers have been hoarding it).




C4

Saving this for later Grant, so when you start selling Ammo cheaper let us know.


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DBake
11-18-16, 11:55
Saving this for later Grant, so when you start selling Ammo cheaper let us know.


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+1, I'll also take a BFH 11.5 when it comes in as well.

Doc Safari
11-18-16, 11:58
I look for a collective sigh of relaxation in the firearms community....until the next school shooting or something like that. Then the left will go all out to demonize the pro-gun people like they always do.

It remains to be seen if Trump will stick to his latter-day pro 2A stance. I worry he will cave on some things like other Republican presidents have.

cbx
11-18-16, 13:04
I'm not slowing down. 3 elections in a row I'm not where I want to be.

Never again.

I've got some time and ability now to make that happen. Just recently got a nice foundation to build my ammo fort on.

The local Sportsman's Warehouse is so full of guns and ammo it is not even funny. It has been a very, very long time since I've seen it that full. The retailers were stockpiling everything in the bet that Hillary was going to win. If I was a retailer, I would have made that bet too.

My hope is that if the hearing protection act and a 50 State concealed carry can be passed, maybe enough new people will be brought into the fold that the current infrastructure will remain. I don't like seeing small businesses more manufacturers of any size go away. As a former small business by myself, it genuinely sucks to have to shut down. I really hope that the upswing and momentum in the Firearms World continues. It's one of the few things that has the majority of the product made, sold, and used here. Plus all of the associated infrastructure with it.

Hell, just the hearing protection act alone could revolutionize the entire business. All of those guns that are out there that either don't have suppressors, or need to be threaded for it. Better yet, how about somebody just come up with an add-on attachment that doesn't require threading? Can you imagine the Gunsmithing & Manufacturing work?

The gun industry is a great industry. I really wish it can keep growing like it is. Collapse within the industry isn't going to do anybody any good. Correction, maybe. But I hope that we can work through it and the current people in the business will be allowed to remain profitable and continue on.

I have some cool ideas that I have come up with and have started testing out. If I can acquire enough capital, I may find myself in the gun industry one of these days. However, I'm going to do it a little smarter and not let it be a failure by committing every small biz cardinal sin the was like my last small business.

williejc
11-18-16, 16:10
The production cost of ammo will control its retail price. Yes, some outfits will blow it out to recover inventory costs. Commodity prices of lead and especially copper are two major factors. Increasing costs of doing business including inflation are factors. I agree that we'll see good deals, but how good is determined by many variables.

w3453l
11-18-16, 21:14
Truth is that right now we just get to take a break; it's our chance to regain any lost ground in regards to the 2A. Regardless of the small wins we've had, in the bigger picture, we've been slowly "dying from a 1000 cuts" as someone put it. With the chance to get a pro 2A administration and SC nominee we can buy some time.

Right now is the time to buy and stock up with all of the cheap, but quality parts being available.

Not to sound negative, but 4 years from now we might see another panic. The left will pick, as usual, a crazy far left wing candidate. This time they're also going to be far more motivated to go out and vote. You guys in red states probably don't see it as much, but take it from someone from So CA.

Ever since Tuesday nights it's been non stop demonstrations, protests, seminars on how to take back America. I've already seen people around here wearing "Rise again" Dem themed printed shirts.

JWlineman
12-29-16, 00:47
Well spoken Stickman. I agree that the market is overshadowed with low quality parts/rifles. I cringed the other day at a local store when a poor sap payed over $500 for an ATI hybrid and walked out thinking he had something.
I know this is an older thread and was wondering if y'all still felt the same...

PrevailFI
02-25-17, 12:47
Wow. You should probably Stick with photography.

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C4IGrant
02-25-17, 13:24
Wow. You should probably Stick with photography.

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And you should stay in your lane. If you have an intelligent rebuttal or a differing POV based off of your experience in sales (during pre and post Obama), then please share. If not, be quiet.


C4


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PrevailFI
02-25-17, 14:04
Oh, so you'd like a detailed editorial critique. Content, grammar, or construction first? Because I could go on for awhile about each aspect.


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PrevailFI
02-25-17, 14:08
And you should stay in your lane. If you have an intelligent rebuttal or a differing POV based off of your experience in sales (during pre and post Obama), then please share. If not, be quiet.


C4


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Oh, so you'd like a detailed editorial critique. Content, grammar, or construction first? Because I could go on for awhile about each aspect.

"Be quiet"!!! [emoji3]

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C4IGrant
02-25-17, 14:10
Oh, so you'd like a detailed editorial critique. Content, grammar, or construction first? Because I could go on for awhile about each aspect.

"Be quiet"!!! [emoji3]

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At least something of worth or value. Nothing you posted added anything to the convo.

C4


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Rock-N-Ruin
03-03-17, 19:24
So, in the first post.. Stick, ya spoke of a store in the PNW jacking up prices on Colts... Just taking a guess, but is it in Bellvue?? lol.

sevenhelmet
03-03-17, 21:53
IMO, there is no reason to ever buy slop, especially in an adverse political climate. I, for one, have always bought quality gear. I have less of it, but it will work when I need it to. I do enjoy the fact that I bought literally everything I needed before the election, so in recent months I've been buying things I want, which is wonderful freedom. I'm also shooting more than I did- I no longer feel the need to be such a Scrooge about my ammo stocks, with reasonable knowledge that buying panics don't generally happen with this type of electoral outcome. All that said, I am keeping my rainy day gear stashed, sealed, and dry, just in case.

Stickman
03-04-17, 16:45
So, in the first post.. Stick, ya spoke of a store in the PNW jacking up prices on Colts... Just taking a guess, but is it in Bellvue?? lol.

I think you evidently know what one I mean.... :-)

Stickman
03-04-17, 16:46
IMO, there is no reason to ever buy slop, especially in an adverse political climate. I, for one, have always bought quality gear. I have less of it, but it will work when I need it to. I do enjoy the fact that I bought literally everything I needed before the election, so in recent months I've been buying things I want, which is wonderful freedom. I'm also shooting more than I did- I no longer feel the need to be such a Scrooge about my ammo stocks, with reasonable knowledge that buying panics don't generally happen with this type of electoral outcome. All that said, I am keeping my rainy day gear stashed, sealed, and dry, just in case.

For some odd reason, we are still seeing shoddy products being released, which makes no sense.

Voodoochild
03-04-17, 20:14
For some odd reason, we are still seeing shoddy products being released, which makes no sense.


Free market capitalism. Everyone knows that an AWB isnt gonna happen anytime soon plus SCOTUS pick is pro 2A. So everyone is trying to get in where they fit in.

Stickman
03-05-17, 23:29
Free market capitalism. Everyone knows that an AWB isnt gonna happen anytime soon plus SCOTUS pick is pro 2A. So everyone is trying to get in where they fit in.

I should have probably phrased my comment better. I'm seeing companies which are well known for quality putting out garbage, and far beyond would even a drunken QC inspector should be picking up on.

The bottom feeder market is always going to be present, just like there will always be people defending it.