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[RetroRevolver77]

Delete

[_Stormin_]

And some of us think that this is nothing more than fear mongering by people with books to sell...

Couldn't find a whole lot on Charlie's econ quals, but hey, a degree in comparative philosophy is the same as a masters/doctorate in econ, right?

I'll disagree with most of his sentiments. Government spending is out of control and nobody in an elected office seems to care to stop, but rates will rise slowly and the world will return to what is the new normal. Remember, the US didn't return to the roaring 20's after the great depression. The recovery was slow but steady until we went into World War II... That said, the most recent recession was NOTHING next to the great depression. If the recovery from the great depression was a chess game of economics, Bush/Obama were playing freaking Candy Land to navigate the recession they went through.

[26 Inf]

Here is DL's economic theory:

The real enemy is the market, in particular funds and computerized trading. There is too much money invested that's sole purpose is drawing dividends.

I'm probably not the lone ranger here as far as my example goes. I retired in June 2016. I did some moving around, locked in some of my earlier contracts at a guaranteed rate, put the rest into an IRA and began drawing monthly from the IRA - just a tad more than I had been taking home. A couple months ago I decided I needed to buy a toy and withdrew a lump sum to pay for said toy. Me taking the money out to buy the toy was because at the time, after drawing for 8 months, I had 6.5ish % more money in my IRA than when I started it.

I don't look at the balances too very often, but I checked tonight and I've already made a fifth of what I withdrew back.

Now stay with me.....I know that I'm not unusual in my investment strategy because I'm with TIAA, and they are pretty big. Point being, there are too many folks just like me, counting on money growing via the market, whether it be buying, selling, or dividends, and doing quite well.

Look back 50 years ago, some folks bought stocks, some folks saved money in banks, some folks bought savings bonds, smart folks did a combination. The average guy back then didn't expect to retire at the same wage he was earning. Now that is not at all unusual.

Problem is that it takes constant increase in value of your holdings. And, as the middle class continues to shrink, that means price has to continue to rise to sustain profits absent technological breakthroughs, or a dramatic decrease in raw material costs.

The market SHOULD be a perpetual motion machine, but the way we are running it we are choking the goose to death and she is gonna seize.

I have no idea how to change it under our current system.

[sevenhelmet]

Here is DL's economic theory:
...
I have no idea how to change it under our current system.

I think you've done a pretty good job with your theory. The economy relies 100% of growth rate, which- as a percentage- requires exponential growth over time to continue to function normally. In theory, this year's 1% of growth has to be greater than last year's 1%, since the economy has gotten bigger. That's unsustainable in the long term without incurring massive debt that will only get exponentially worse over time. One possible outcome is massive devaluation of currency, in which case real assets will be king. Another is massive tax hikes, but neither is a solution, and both screw the population over pretty thoroughly.

I honestly don't see a graceful way out of the debt/growth problem at this point.

[elephant]

the real problem is debt. depending on how old you are, either your parents or grandparents actually owned things, especially there house and cars. Today inflation goes up causing the price of everything to go up and I think that is a direct response to the credit given to people. In some countries, your not allowed to borrow money against your home and your not allowed credit that equals more than a few months pay. For that reason, most people live well off, not to our standards because we borrow money to buy everything. The average consumer in the US has to borrow money to buy a new/ used car, borrow money to buy a washer and dryer, borrow money to put down on a house.

Debt has created a unimaginable amount of wealth for the lenders and leaves the borrowers with very little money to put towards savings. Most Americans have a mortgage, 2 car notes, 6 credit cards within 60-75% of there limit, on top of all the bills associated with life/family. Voice and data plans for cell phones, internet, cable, utilities, insurance, groceries which leaves most families with very little at the end of each month.

If Americans were allowed to borrow only 80% of the value for a home and have 20% of there own money invested, revolving credit is maxed out at 2 months net bring home and 12 months to pay, and you can only borrow up to 60% on new cars I think that would solve a lot of problems in this counties. The price of goods would have to match the abilities of most Americans and would decrease over time. New car prices would go down, knowing that Americans can only get financing for 60% for a new car only, the used market would see a huge degrease- or more Americans would chose to hold on to there cars for much longer like Europeans. If you were only allowed to have credit cards with a amount of credit equal to 8 pay checks, people would pay cash for more things and therefore be less in debt and use credit for what it was intended for and given only 12 months to pay back, credit would not be used so freely as it is now.

The only way to have real wealth in the US is to have real ownership. Some debt is good and manageable but we are starting to see 22 year olds step into the real world with $150k in debt and no assets.- dangerous!!

Lenders are too generous with credit and borrowers are too cavalier with credit. The bible says its better to be the lender than the borrower.

When the financial collapse hit us in 2008, the people that were affected were those who were upside down on there mortgages, who owed more than they took home. Not me, I don't have money in the stock market (only a fool would invest in the stock market) and I own my house. So in reality, the 2008 recession has absolutely no affect on me. My money was safe and sound, I didn't loose a dime. I want rich by any means but as most people were taking on bath on there home and settling there credit cards, I was buying people problems for pennies on the dollar.

[yoni]

I will address the title of the thread "Life after the economy tanks".

If you have done nothing to prepare your going to be like all the rest in deep trouble.

As a Jew, I go back to advise given by men smarter than me.

Keep debit to as small as possible, better yet zero debit .

You you have no debit, you have no master.

We are told to invest in 3 things, speculation which is your business, a friends business, or normally the stock market. Next is land and last is valuable metals or stones.

Me, I have zero money in the stock market. Gold, lead, land, business, is where my money is.

I have zero debit.

I will add that due to the cultural divide in the USA, if you are in the city and the bottom drops out. You will suffer.

I live in the city, but am currently shopping for a place in the middle of the USA. I also own land and have resources in different countries.

So I have diversity in investments and locations. So if the bottom drops out in one place I have where to go and will live fine.

[Alex V]

Life after the economy tanks? Just look at Venezuela. /thread.

[Digital_Damage]

And some of us think that this is nothing more than fear mongering by people with books to sell...

Couldn't find a whole lot on Charlie's econ quals, but hey, a degree in comparative philosophy is the same as a masters/doctorate in econ, right?

I'll disagree with most of his sentiments. Government spending is out of control and nobody in an elected office seems to care to stop, but rates will rise slowly and the world will return to what is the new normal. Remember, the US didn't return to the roaring 20's after the great depression. The recovery was slow but steady until we went into World War II... That said, the most recent recession was NOTHING next to the great depression. If the recovery from the great depression was a chess game of economics, Bush/Obama were playing freaking Candy Land to navigate the recession they went through.

Was going to say the same thing...

just fear mongering for people who want to "buy gold" and "got my bugout location fully stocked."

[yoni]

Was going to say the same thing...

just fear mongering for people who want to "buy gold" and "got my bugout location fully stocked."

So you don't think the economy of the USA can tank?

[_Stormin_]

I think the better argument is that on the current level, the economy isn't going to tank any time soon. Anything can fail.

[Digital_Damage]

So you don't think the economy of the USA can tank?

Highly doubtful within the next 30 years unless their is some cataclysmic event, the points that blogger is trying to make is a farce.

[_Stormin_]

Look back 50 years ago, some folks bought stocks, some folks saved money in banks, some folks bought savings bonds, smart folks did a combination. The average guy back then didn't expect to retire at the same wage he was earning. Now that is not at all unusual.
That's not the market or the economy failing, that's people's expectations failing. I genuinely do feel that retirement ages will slowly shift upwards (as they should) and that expectations will become more realistic over time.

[skywalkrNCSU]

the real problem is debt. depending on how old you are, either your parents or grandparents actually owned things, especially there house and cars. Today inflation goes up causing the price of everything to go up and I think that is a direct response to the credit given to people. In some countries, your not allowed to borrow money against your home and your not allowed credit that equals more than a few months pay. For that reason, most people live well off, not to our standards because we borrow money to buy everything. The average consumer in the US has to borrow money to buy a new/ used car, borrow money to buy a washer and dryer, borrow money to put down on a house.

Debt has created a unimaginable amount of wealth for the lenders and leaves the borrowers with very little money to put towards savings. Most Americans have a mortgage, 2 car notes, 6 credit cards within 60-75% of there limit, on top of all the bills associated with life/family. Voice and data plans for cell phones, internet, cable, utilities, insurance, groceries which leaves most families with very little at the end of each month.

If Americans were allowed to borrow only 80% of the value for a home and have 20% of there own money invested, revolving credit is maxed out at 2 months net bring home and 12 months to pay, and you can only borrow up to 60% on new cars I think that would solve a lot of problems in this counties. The price of goods would have to match the abilities of most Americans and would decrease over time. New car prices would go down, knowing that Americans can only get financing for 60% for a new car only, the used market would see a huge degrease- or more Americans would chose to hold on to there cars for much longer like Europeans. If you were only allowed to have credit cards with a amount of credit equal to 8 pay checks, people would pay cash for more things and therefore be less in debt and use credit for what it was intended for and given only 12 months to pay back, credit would not be used so freely as it is now.

The only way to have real wealth in the US is to have real ownership. Some debt is good and manageable but we are starting to see 22 year olds step into the real world with $150k in debt and no assets.- dangerous!!

Lenders are too generous with credit and borrowers are too cavalier with credit. The bible says its better to be the lender than the borrower.

When the financial collapse hit us in 2008, the people that were affected were those who were upside down on there mortgages, who owed more than they took home. Not me, I don't have money in the stock market (only a fool would invest in the stock market) and I own my house. So in reality, the 2008 recession has absolutely no affect on me. My money was safe and sound, I didn't loose a dime. I want rich by any means but as most people were taking on bath on there home and settling there credit cards, I was buying people problems for pennies on the dollar.

Only a fool would invest in the stock market? What? Really? That is an absurd statement. Yeah you would be a fool if you had a majority of your portfolio in stocks as you approached retirement age but when you are in a position to take some risk with time to recoup a potential recession then stocks are a great place to be, especially in cheap index funds. Sure beats bars of precious metals and stuffing cash in a mattress.

[Averageman]

I think the better argument is that on the current level, the economy isn't going to tank any time soon. Anything can fail.

They will keep this Ponzi scheme going until they have milked the last drop or the teats fall off.

[Doc Safari]

So at the one extreme we have the notion that this narrative is just to cash in on fear and sell merchandise. At the other extreme is the US becoming Venezuela.

Once again, we won't know what the truth is until it happens or doesn't happen, and the ability to separate fake news from the truth has escaped us.

Sorry to be so cynical, but the only safe thing is to not believe anything that anybody says anymore.

[THCDDM4]

Wether it is 10 days, 10 months, 10 years of 100 years from now the current system we have will absolutely fail and crash hard.

The longer we kick the can down the road the worse it will be due to many factors.

And by the way, the whole thing doesn't have to crash and burn for shit to get real ugly real fast. If food and water supply
Chains brokendown for any reason- that alone could cause some very rough times if not corrected asap.

We live in a nation predominantly inhabited by spoiled children who live on credit and don't have the slightest clue how to fend for Themselves if shit gets tough and the government or someone other than themselves didn't step in to fix it for Them.

I'll keep living and prepare the best I can for whatever may come to pass.

[_Stormin_]

As has already been said, many of the people peddling that the sky is falling are planning on selling something to you. Some of those people are the prepper types.

Don't get me wrong, I grow my own peppers, tomatos, cucumbers and even have citrus this year. That's mostly because the food tastes better though.

[Pilot1]

When our fragile electric grid goes down from attack you will see far worse than just economic chaos. I am surprised instead of a few tall buildings in NYC, terrorists haven't gone after that. Soft target is an understatement.

[RetroRevolver77]

deleted

[Averageman]

We were land rich and cash poor back then. Now few people own enough land to grow the majority of their own food.
In the event of an economic crash, the starving masses will leave the cities again and attempt to overwhelm those who have food and tangible assets to produce it.
Big difference in then and now...
Have a skill, be prudent with your money and have some food set back.
I do not think anything will happen as the doomsayer suggest. It may be treacherous but the will keep our banking system and economy going as long as possible in the current manner. If only because it is making the World economy move and that keep the money coming in to the banks.
Ponzi scheme, Yes.
Kicking the can down the road, Yes
Will it continue, Yes as long as possible and it is still very possible.

[Digital_Damage]

It's not exactly fake new though, our national debt is now greater than our GDP and has doubled in the last ten years. Our future unfunded liabilities; medicaid, social security, welfare, gov pensions etc.- is five times our national debt just in today's dollars.

One of the things that my grandfather said carried his family through the Great Depression era was having a piece of land that they could farm. They lived somewhat in the outskirts of a small city but they had some lot or something nearby that his father and I believe a neighbor of theirs partly owned- just to grow some vegetables. They also did a lot of canning and had a root cellar in addition to an "ice box"- a lot of which is a lost art today. Simple things like planning to be a little self sufficient, having maybe a little land for a garden and learning some basics of food storage without refrigeration would probably go a long way.


7n6

Japan is still trucking along... they blew by those "indicators" a long time ago, at one point they were over 200% marching to 300%

The person that wrote that is clearly not an economist.

[_Stormin_]

Why point out the obvious? These "the end is nigh" threads always somehow degrade into people shouting into the echo chamber.

[RetroRevolver77]

deleted

[elephant]

Only a fool would invest in the stock market? What? Really? That is an absurd statement. Yeah you would be a fool if you had a majority of your portfolio in stocks as you approached retirement age but when you are in a position to take some risk with time to recoup a potential recession then stocks are a great place to be, especially in cheap index funds. Sure beats bars of precious metals and stuffing cash in a mattress.

the stock exchange is a horrible idea now as it was a long time ago. First of all, you control nothing, second, in order to buy and sell said stock, you must go through someone else and pay a percentage, you cannot borrow against your stocks or use the full value as collateral. there is absolutely nothing in this world you can do to affect the price of the stock.

The best way to make money in gold or silver is to own a lot of it and sell it to people through scare tactic commercials on Fox news. You never buy or sell for the spot price, you pay more when you buy and sell it for less when you sell and its not approved for use as currency. Cant buy bread, water or sex with gold. - No thanks!!!

If the economy tanks, there are only a few things that you would want to have that you can either control or make money from

1. prescription medication- it will be worth more than gold if the economy tanks (diabetes/pain/blood pressure/antibiotics/heart/etc)
2. water- mentioned in the bible as a serious problem in the end times
3. land- paid off- you control it and built on it
3. gas/fuel- people have been known to pay a premium for it in hard times


but if you want to make lucrative money without the stock market, get into real estate! there is a sucker born every minute. Most of my money has come from short term real estate deals.

[Digital_Damage]

Japan is also a homogeneous society such that after they had a Tsunami they worked together to help one another during that disaster. Not loot, rape, kick in doors, and shoot one another as we saw during Katrina. I'd say if EBT gets cut off for a few weeks- we'd see a majority of our cities burn.


7n6

What are you even talking about... Japans GDP position and financial stability has nothing todo with that disaster or society.

They surpassed GDP Debt ration in the 90's.... Do you see them cutting off all their social programs? LOL

[turnburglar]

Everyone says you need to 'own' your shit when the economy collapses.


Not even remotely true. Possession is 9/10th's and when the banks have ALL of their loans default, they are not gonna repo your house or car the very next day. Back in 2008 A lot of people stayed in their homes for years without making a payment. In fact without the government stealing from our coffer's and bailing out the stupid banks its almost like: "jokes on you!"

No one has mentioned Fannie or Freddie yet, which makes me think you don't under stand the mechanisms that broke this world the first time. They are VERY close to needing another bail out.... like today.... Yet I am not worried. Why? Because we have a business/real estate guy in the office that really understands this stuff, and seems to actually give a crap about this country unlike every politician ever.

I think student debt is gonna be a much farther reaching issue.

Also look at Iceland. They got screwed worse than we did by a long shot. The people got sick and tired of their governments crap, threw a few bankers and politicians in jail, got some scientists and engineers to do what they do best, and now they are out of debt and trash. Things can turn around faster than it took them to go wrong. The people just need to will it to happen.

[ralph]

the stock exchange is a horrible idea now as it was a long time ago. First of all, you control nothing, second, in order to buy and sell said stock, you must go through someone else and pay a percentage, you cannot borrow against your stocks or use the full value as collateral. there is absolutely nothing in this world you can do to affect the price of the stock.

The best way to make money in gold or silver is to own a lot of it and sell it to people through scare tactic commercials on Fox news. You never buy or sell for the spot price, you pay more when you buy and sell it for less when you sell and its not approved for use as currency. Cant buy bread, water or sex with gold. - No thanks!!!

If the economy tanks, there are only a few things that you would want to have that you can either control or make money from

1. prescription medication- it will be worth more than gold if the economy tanks (diabetes/pain/blood pressure/antibiotics/heart/etc)
2. water- mentioned in the bible as a serious problem in the end times
3. land- paid off- you control it and built on it
3. gas/fuel- people have been known to pay a premium for it in hard times


but if you want to make lucrative money without the stock market, get into real estate! there is a sucker born every minute. Most of my money has come from short term real estate deals.

To this I'd also add learn a trade/skill that could be used for making extra cash, or for barter, skills like plumbing, electrical, carpentery, will always be needed because so many people don't know to do anything around the house. People will pay a suprising amount of money to make poop go away when the toliet is flushed...

[elephant]

Not even remotely true. Possession is 9/10th's and when the banks have ALL of their loans default, they are not gonna repo your house or car the very next day. Back in 2008 A lot of people stayed in their homes for years without making a payment. In fact without the government stealing from our coffer's and bailing out the stupid banks its almost like: "jokes on you!"

remember, your nothing but a FICO score to these people, yes they may let you short sale your home or even allow you to reside while in default but a majority of those people are to this day still dealing with the consequences. Employees of mine are still living in apartments because there FICO is not enough to secure a mortgage (and they make $85k+ a year). There are employees of mine where we have to withhold most of there income from a judgment passed back in 2009 from unpaid bills. its not "jokes on you", the government allows, within a reasonable amount of time, for the lenders to come back to collect what they are owed and the US Federal Government always sides with the lender. In these cases, the federal government can step in and withhold your earnings as repayment. Even today a lot of people have repaired there credit but have a few years left of pay the balance of there debt.

No one has mentioned Fannie or Freddie yet, which makes me think you don't under stand the mechanisms that broke this world the first time. They are VERY close to needing another bail out.... like today.... Yet I am not worried. Why? Because we have a business/real estate guy in the office that really understands this stuff, and seems to actually give a crap about this country unlike every politician ever.

I think you may want to look into the Federal Housing Authority, they are the ones who insured the mortgages that allowed Banks, Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac to issue more mortgage loans. But during the recession of 2008 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac along with all the Investment Banks that bought these AAA Bonds that were insured by the FHA had to take the hit, FHA had all the money. I see your point, but your blaming the wrong person.


I think student debt is gonna be a much farther reaching issue.

most likely will and it will bring us all down, nobody wants to talk about the price of a university, all they want to talk about is the repayment of student loan. Force universities to price there tuition to a point that reflects most people ability. School should not cost $60k and teachers should not have "tenures". Or dare I say, take away student loans and watch the price of a university decrease very rapidly.

Also look at Iceland. They got screwed worse than we did by a long shot. The people got sick and tired of their governments crap, threw a few bankers and politicians in jail, got some scientists and engineers to do what they do best, and now they are out of debt and trash. Things can turn around faster than it took them to go wrong. The people just need to will it to happen

yeah there out of debt sure, but there credit rating went to shit, they were bailed out just like Greece and devalued there currency and walked away from there obligation. Obviously Iceland is smaller than the US and they don't have the infrastructure to maintain a diverse economy.

if people owned there home, the 2008 financial collapse would not have happened. The fastest way to make money is to sell shit to people that they cannot afford, forcing them to borrow, charge them an astronomical amount in interest to be paid over a certain amount of time leaving them with little money in the end forcing them to borrow more to move forward. Our money is not "paid in full" but "promise to pay", our currency is actually a receipt from the Treasury. Debt in the eyes of wall st is the new new and been that way since 19 twenty ****ing 9 and nobody to this day understands why watching Wall St is like watching the docking of the Hindenburg.

[AKDoug]

In the case of a complete economic collapse, the banks will cease to exist. When I think "complete economic collapse" I don't think that FICO scores are going to matter one single bit on the other side.

[austinN4]

I think student debt is gonna be a much farther reaching issue.

Don't ignore the huge amount of sub-prime auto loans that have built up the last several years.

Opinion: Man, that red is hard to read.

[Crow Hunter]

There are quite a few logical fallacies being thrown about here that people need to think about.

If the entire economy collapses and anarchy ensues there is no guarantee that anything will be of value.

-Private and public businesses get nationalized (see Venezuela or Nazi Germany)
-Private property can be seized and "redistributed" (see Zimbabwe or Soviet Russia or Nazi Germany)
-Hard specie (gold/silver/etc) can be declared illegal to own/use for trade (see 1930's USA)
-Travel into/out of the country can be strongly curtailed (see post WWII Germany and the Iron Curtain)

And all of that was with an existing and functional government. Anarchy wouldn't even have that.

Basically, there is NO store of wealth out there that isn't subject to the vagaries of government laws and there is no ownership that isn't governed by the government itself (see fee simple vs allodial title). After all, that is what our system of civilization is, imposed government order and the rule of law. Throw them out, civilization goes with it and your only true "wealth" will be what you have on your body at the moment and what you can keep others from taking away from you and even that is subject to seizure by others. See Otzi the Iceman.

While it is fun to think about, like a zombie apocalypse or alien invasion, it isn't something to get worked up over as it is such a remote possibility and such a significant event that it is truly impossible to prepare for.

Your best bet for living through a total economic collapse preserving wealth is to work hard to make sure that it doesn't happen.

Now "run of the mill" problems like a Depression or a currency devaluation or something like that, have a diversified portfolio and you will likely be okay. You won't be happy, but you won't be destitute.

Those that are staying out of "the market" are really, really shooting yourselves in the foot. It is no different than the "market" for a business, land, gold, etc. It is an asset that people are willing or not willing to pay money for the only difference is that it is more liquid with a broader market of potential buyers/sellers. At least some of your wealth should be involved in broad based index mutual funds and high quality debt instruments.