chadbag
10-16-08, 16:38
This was from Gary Bauer's daily email newsletter (I don't know how I got on it actually but it is interesting to read so I have stayed on it)
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You Are The Target
In recent weeks, there has been a concerted attempt by the Obama campaign and the leftwing media to demoralize you and, thus, suppress the conservative vote. Don’t fall for it. Yes, Senator McCain is the underdog, but this race is far from over.
For example, I’m sure you’ve seen the polls showing Senator McCain down by double-digits. Maybe you saw a recent headline suggesting that Democrats can capture a filibuster-proof majority of 60 seats in the Senate. That would be a nightmare scenario if it happened, but it would happen only if conservatives don’t vote on Election Day, and that is exactly why the media are desperately trying to convince you that the election is already over!
Much of the polling data that is being spun by the liberal media are polls of adults or registered voters, neither of which is a good predictor of elections. But, even worse, the media are “over-sampling” Democrats when they conduct these polls. A political science professor recently dissected one major media poll that had Senator McCain trailing by double-digits. Here’s what he found:
The first thing he noticed was that Senator McCain was actually winning Independent voters. So how could he be down by 11 points? Upon further examination, he found that the poll’s voter sample included 40% Democrats, 33% Independents and just 27% Republicans. In short, the poll “over-sampled” Democrats by 13 points. That might be an accurate poll if the entire country looked like Massachusetts, but, thankfully, it does not.
Then the professor attempted to correct the poll by “weighting” the sample based on the actual turnout in a recent election. Instead of assuming that 40% of the voters who show up to the polls will be Democrats, he used the turnout figures from the 2006 election -- a bad year for the GOP. After “weighting” the sample of voters based on real turnout figures, Obama’s lead dropped to just two points. Confirming the professor’s findings, one of the most accurate polls in 2004 just released a new survey that had Senator McCain down three points.
We can win this, my friends, but it will be up to you! You must vote, and to counter the efforts of ACORN, you must persuade as many friends and family members as possible, with the information we are providing, to support Senator McCain and Governor Palin in the 19 days remaining in this campaign.
----
You Are The Target
In recent weeks, there has been a concerted attempt by the Obama campaign and the leftwing media to demoralize you and, thus, suppress the conservative vote. Don’t fall for it. Yes, Senator McCain is the underdog, but this race is far from over.
For example, I’m sure you’ve seen the polls showing Senator McCain down by double-digits. Maybe you saw a recent headline suggesting that Democrats can capture a filibuster-proof majority of 60 seats in the Senate. That would be a nightmare scenario if it happened, but it would happen only if conservatives don’t vote on Election Day, and that is exactly why the media are desperately trying to convince you that the election is already over!
Much of the polling data that is being spun by the liberal media are polls of adults or registered voters, neither of which is a good predictor of elections. But, even worse, the media are “over-sampling” Democrats when they conduct these polls. A political science professor recently dissected one major media poll that had Senator McCain trailing by double-digits. Here’s what he found:
The first thing he noticed was that Senator McCain was actually winning Independent voters. So how could he be down by 11 points? Upon further examination, he found that the poll’s voter sample included 40% Democrats, 33% Independents and just 27% Republicans. In short, the poll “over-sampled” Democrats by 13 points. That might be an accurate poll if the entire country looked like Massachusetts, but, thankfully, it does not.
Then the professor attempted to correct the poll by “weighting” the sample based on the actual turnout in a recent election. Instead of assuming that 40% of the voters who show up to the polls will be Democrats, he used the turnout figures from the 2006 election -- a bad year for the GOP. After “weighting” the sample of voters based on real turnout figures, Obama’s lead dropped to just two points. Confirming the professor’s findings, one of the most accurate polls in 2004 just released a new survey that had Senator McCain down three points.
We can win this, my friends, but it will be up to you! You must vote, and to counter the efforts of ACORN, you must persuade as many friends and family members as possible, with the information we are providing, to support Senator McCain and Governor Palin in the 19 days remaining in this campaign.