View Full Version : China trade war and NoRK nukes connectedness
Business_Casual
07-07-18, 11:15
Theory:
The visit of Xi to Mar-a-lago was for the US to drop the demand for them to persuade Kim to abandon nukes and allow Western investment.
Xi communicates the demands to Kim who initially agrees. Kim reneges (much of the narrative is skipped here). US raises spectre of China tariffs if Kim fails to follow through. China balks and/or feels it would “lose face” by continued compliance. Trade war ensues. Pompeo travels to North Korea, issues further demands.
Is Trump in Europe breaking the news that NATO is no longer needed and our focus will shift to the Far East?
That brings us to today. Thoughts? Predictions?
The trade war will benefit the US in the long run, China will be hurt by it. Trump realizes that NATO doesn’t need so much American involvement (or money) and I hope will decrease our presence. It’s time for Europe to start taking care of itself and be more self reliant. Europe also needs to get more involved with the ME/Syrian war and deal with the migration problem.
Doc Safari
07-11-18, 15:07
Theory:
The visit of Xi to Mar-a-lago was for the US to drop the demand for them to persuade Kim to abandon nukes and allow Western investment.
Xi communicates the demands to Kim who initially agrees. Kim reneges (much of the narrative is skipped here). US raises spectre of China tariffs if Kim fails to follow through. China balks and/or feels it would “lose face” by continued compliance. Trade war ensues. Pompeo travels to North Korea, issues further demands.
Is Trump in Europe breaking the news that NATO is no longer needed and our focus will shift to the Far East?
That brings us to today. Thoughts? Predictions?
Some good analysis there. I hadn't thought of that, but it looks like Trump is viewing Russia as less of a threat than China (which it is). The whole NATO controversy does two things: it motivates the Europeans to pony up if they want to keep enjoying the Pax Americana, and it sends China the subtle message that we can always move forces to the Pacific if NATO is no longer our pet project.
I can't link to any specific articles because the discussion is ongoing and I'd have to dig them up again. Suffice it to say some analysts believe we are already at war with China and the tariffs are just the gentlemen's declaration of hostilities before the real shooting war begins. Also, if we are to have a shooting war with China, it'd be real sweet if we could stop them from stealing our high technology: hence the Economic Cold War.
RetroRevolver77
07-11-18, 16:33
I hate to say it but Western Europe has already committed suicide with their migrants. We probably aren't far behind having some 40 million illegals living inside our borders. Ironically if Western Civilization, i.e. Christian European centrist society- is to survive, it will be in Eastern Europe.
The_War_Wagon
07-11-18, 17:11
Anything that makes Schmuckles the Clown, squeek like a rubber chicken, is fine by me. MAGA!
http://i212.photobucket.com/albums/cc305/The_War_Wagon/schumerclownA_zps87pv84nx.jpg
I hate to say it but Western Europe has already committed suicide with their migrants. We probably aren't far behind having some 40 million illegals living inside our borders. Ironically if Western Civilization, i.e. Christian European centrist society- is to survive, it will be in Eastern Europe.
7n6 - reporting for duty as your Jiminy Cricket (hand salute, ready, two)
Where are you getting your stats? Because this is what I come up with:
Studies have shown that 40 million foreign born residents live in the US. Of that population, 11.7 million are undocumented. https://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/ois_ill_pe_2009.pdf
According to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, the countries of origin for the largest numbers of illegal immigrants are as follows (figures from 2014):
52809
The Urban Institute also estimates that between 65,000 and 75,000 Canadians currently live illegally in the United States (2008). http://www.wweek.com/portland/article-8470-hes-an-illegal-eh-lien.html
Western Civilization, i.e. Christian European centrist society- is to survive, it will be in Eastern Europe.
Unless you are not counting Catholics as Christians all is not lost. What is probably even more illuminating is this:
Hispanic Identity Fades Across Generations as Immigrant Connections Fall Away
More than 18% of Americans identify as Hispanic or Latino, the nation’s second largest racial or ethnic group. But two trends – a long-standing high intermarriage rate and a decade of declining Latin American immigration – are distancing some Americans with Hispanic ancestry from the life experiences of earlier generations, reducing the likelihood they call themselves Hispanic or Latino.
Among the estimated 42.7 million U.S. adults with Hispanic ancestry in 2015, nine-in-ten (89%), or about 37.8 million, self-identify as Hispanic or Latino. But another 5 million (11%) do not consider themselves Hispanic or Latino, according to Pew Research Center estimates. The closer they are to their immigrant roots, the more likely Americans with Hispanic ancestry are to identify as Hispanic.
The closer they are to their immigrant roots, the more likely Americans with Hispanic ancestry are to identify as Hispanic. Nearly all immigrant adults from Latin America or Spain (97%) say they are Hispanic. Similarly, second-generation adults with Hispanic ancestry (the U.S.-born children of at least one immigrant parent) have nearly as high a Hispanic self-identification rate (92%), according to Pew Research Center estimates.
By the third generation – a group made up of the U.S.-born children of U.S.-born parents and immigrant grandparents – the share that self-identifies as Hispanic falls to 77%. And by the fourth or higher generation (U.S.-born children of U.S.-born parents and U.S.-born grandparents, or even more distant relatives), just half of U.S. adults with Hispanic ancestry say they are Hispanic.
Declining immigration, high intermarriage rates
Immigration from Latin America played a central role in the U.S. Hispanic population’s growth and its identity during the 1980s and 1990s. But by the 2000s, U.S. births overtook the arrival of new immigrants as the main driver of Hispanic population dynamics. And the Great Recession, coupled with many other factors, significantly slowed the flow of new immigrants into the country, especially from Mexico.
As a result, the U.S. Hispanic population is still growing, but at a rate nearly half of what it was over a decade ago as fewer immigrants arrive in the U.S. and the fertility rate among Hispanic women has declined.
In 2015, 25.1% of Latino newlyweds married a non-Latino spouse and 18.3% of all married Latinos were intermarried; in 1980, 26.4% of Latino newlyweds intermarried and 18.1% of all married Latinos had a non-Latino spouse, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of government data.
In both 1980 and 2015, Latino intermarried rates were higher than those for blacks or whites.
As a result of high intermarriage rates, some of today’s Latinos have parents or grandparents of mixed heritage, with that share higher among later generations. According to the surveys, 18% of immigrants say that they have a non-Latino parent or grandparent in their family, a share that rises to 29% among the second generation and 65% among the third or higher generation, according to the Pew Research Center survey of self-identified Latino adults.
These trends also have implications for the future of Hispanic identity in the U.S. Lower immigration levels than in the past and continued high intermarriage rates may combine to produce a growing number of U.S. adults with Hispanic ancestors who may not identify as Hispanic or Latino.
AND HERE, MY FRIENDS, IS THE BOMBSHELL:
And even among those who do self-identify as Hispanic or Latino, those in the second and third or higher generations may see their identity as more tied to the U.S. than to the origins of their parents, a pattern observed in many previous5 Pew Research Center Latino surveys.
The survey is worth a read: http://www.pewhispanic.org/2017/12/20/hispanic-identity-fades-across-generations-as-immigrant-connections-fall-away/
My take: We are going to end up as a light tannish, largely Christian population, versus the pasty white, largely Christian population of a a century or so ago.
So, don fret too much.
We still don't need open borders though
Theory:
The visit of Xi to Mar-a-lago was for the US to drop the demand for them to persuade Kim to abandon nukes and allow Western investment.
Xi communicates the demands to Kim who initially agrees. Kim reneges (much of the narrative is skipped here). US raises spectre of China tariffs if Kim fails to follow through. China balks and/or feels it would “lose face” by continued compliance. Trade war ensues. Pompeo travels to North Korea, issues further demands.
Is Trump in Europe breaking the news that NATO is no longer needed and our focus will shift to the Far East?
That brings us to today. Thoughts? Predictions?
Analysis of North Korea’s destruction of its nuclear testing site reveal that explosions were superficial and insufficient to destroy the facility. Some experts are expressing the belief that some tunnels are still usable. Technical equipment was also removed prior to detonation, allowing North Korea to restart or continue its nuclear programme. This goes in line with recent statements that U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded that North Korea is attempting to secretly make more nuclear fuel suitable for weapons despite the Singapore Summit. Additionally, commercial satellite imagery from June 21 indicates that improvements to the infrastructure at North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center are continuing at a rapid pace.
Continuing in Korean, North Korea has signed a document restating its position to denuclearize Korean theater. Analyists note the wording of the statement, which implies that there are to be no nuclear weapons in South Korea as well.
Business_Casual
07-11-18, 21:07
http://dailycaller.com/2018/07/07/navy-destroyers-taiwan-strait/
Interesting.
My take: We are going to end up as a light tannish, largely Christian population, versus the pasty white, largely Christian population of a a century or so ago.
So, don fret too much.
Not that I'm fretting over the racial identity of this country, but why isn't it a problem now but it's racial genocide when "pasty white" folks have done the same in other countries in the past?
Hell even if "pasty white" folks change the economic identity of a neighborhood by legitimate investment and improvement it's called gentrification and it's explained as a type of "land theft." I don't buy into the racial argument, but I also don't accept the double standard. If we have to protect minority races and interests then we have to do it for everyone if we are going to honestly discuss equality in any way that is remotely meaningful.
Not that I'm fretting over the racial identity of this country, but why isn't it a problem now but it's racial genocide when "pasty white" folks have done the same in other countries in the past?
Hell even if "pasty white" folks change the economic identity of a neighborhood by legitimate investment and improvement it's called gentrification and it's explained as a type of "land theft." I don't buy into the racial argument, but I also don't accept the double standard. If we have to protect minority races and interests then we have to do it for everyone if we are going to honestly discuss equality in any way that is remotely meaningful.
^^^^like
Not that I'm fretting over the racial identity of this country, but why isn't it a problem now but it's racial genocide when "pasty white" folks have done the same in other countries in the past?
Hell even if "pasty white" folks change the economic identity of a neighborhood by legitimate investment and improvement it's called gentrification and it's explained as a type of "land theft." I don't buy into the racial argument, but I also don't accept the double standard. If we have to protect minority races and interests then we have to do it for everyone if we are going to honestly discuss equality in any way that is remotely meaningful.
You know, I didn't mean this to morph into city planning, but........most of the complaints regarding gentrification are because the improvements to the area are generally not affordable to the current residents of the area. As a result over time, sometimes quickly, the original classes of the area are pushed out and the character of the area changes, often losing the allure that begot the initial investment.
Kind of like Floridians talking about us 'Fvcking Northerners.'
What is more alarming is the tendency of everyone, regardless of affiliation, to go 'oh yeah, what about.....' recording a wrong to their 'side' in regards to even the most benign statements.
For instance, to you post I COULD reply that maybe it is because for most of the first 3/4 of the 20th Century, minorities were unable to buy homes or rent apartments in white neighborhoods. As St. Clair Drake and Horace Cayton noted in their book Black Metropolis: A Study of Negro Life in a Northern City this was in essence 'the invisible barbed-wire fence of restrictive covenants.'
All that would accomplish, is to motivate you to come up with another example. Let's not do that. I was merely refuting 7n6's 40,000,000 illegals most sane folks agree it is around 12,000,000 illegals.
Man, no wonder nothing gets done about anything.
You know, I didn't mean this to morph into city planning, but........most of the complaints regarding gentrification are because the improvements to the area are generally not affordable to the current residents of the area. As a result over time, sometimes quickly, the original classes of the area are pushed out and the character of the area changes, often losing the allure that begot the initial investment.
Kind of like Floridians talking about us 'Fvcking Northerners.'
What is more alarming is the tendency of everyone, regardless of affiliation, to go 'oh yeah, what about.....' recording a wrong to their 'side' in regards to even the most benign statements.
For instance, to you post I COULD reply that maybe it is because for most of the first 3/4 of the 20th Century, minorities were unable to buy homes or rent apartments in white neighborhoods. As St. Clair Drake and Horace Cayton noted in their book Black Metropolis: A Study of Negro Life in a Northern City this was in essence 'the invisible barbed-wire fence of restrictive covenants.'
All that would accomplish, is to motivate you to come up with another example. Let's not do that. I was merely refuting 7n6's 40,000,000 illegals most sane folks agree it is around 12,000,000 illegals.
Man, no wonder nothing gets done about anything.
Just so we are on the same page, nothing gets done about anything because race is an arbitrary visual qualifier that is almost meaningless at the genetic level and the only real difference is level of melanin and the level of efficiency in absorbing Vitamin D. And even that critical difference is nothing but a genetic hand me down based upon how close to the equator ones ancestors lived for the last 10,000 years or so.
Everything else is cultural and culture is a choice, which is why different cultures with different values exist. So the only thing I was really saying is, your reply about how our country will be a little more tan and that's nothing to worry about is no more or less offensive than other people worrying that our country isn't as "pasty white" as it used to be.
That's sort of how equality works, if it's ok for X then it has to be okay for Y otherwise X and Y are not equal. And if you take a statement about X and Y and reverse the variables and it suddenly sounds racists, then the original statement was equally racist.
As for economics and housing, gentrification is almost exclusively a bad word about how "pasty white" people fix a neighborhood to the point the "non pasty white" people can't afford to live there anymore. But a couple thousand years ago tanned Romans fed "pasty white" christians to the lions and that's lots worse than fair housing issues. So I figure I'm due pizza reparations and should be able to walk into any Italian pizzeria and get a free slice and a coke because my people were persecuted.
Otherwise we have to start with "everyone gets the same fair shot and no special exceptions" because that's equality. But I don't see that happening any time soon. There will always be people who identify with their melanin equivalents despite the fact that genetic exceptions destroy any attempt at a visual classification of homo sapiens.
We are all the same imperfect species, with varying degrees of imperfections and what we perceive as differences that almost borderline on distinction of species are little more than who left Africa when and everything else is just cultural.
ETA: You probably shouldn't worry about the opinions of Floridians regarding northerners, many Floridans are illegals anyway so they don't get a vote.
Just so we are on the same page, nothing gets done about anything because race is an arbitrary visual qualifier that is almost meaningless at the genetic level and the only real difference is level of melanin and the level of efficiency in absorbing Vitamin D. And even that critical difference is nothing but a genetic hand me down based upon how close to the equator ones ancestors lived for the last 10,000 years or so.
Everything else is cultural and culture is a choice, which is why different cultures with different values exist. So the only thing I was really saying is, your reply about how our country will be a little more tan and that's nothing to worry about is no more or less offensive than other people worrying that our country isn't as "pasty white" as it used to be.
That's sort of how equality works, if it's ok for X then it has to be okay for Y otherwise X and Y are not equal. And if you take a statement about X and Y and reverse the variables and it suddenly sounds racists, then the original statement was equally racist.
As for economics and housing, gentrification is almost exclusively a bad word about how "pasty white" people fix a neighborhood to the point the "non pasty white" people can't afford to live there anymore.
That's funny, I've always viewed it as a moneyed versus un-moneyed thing instead of a color thing. If you are talking revitalizing neighborhoods for the good of the residents and long term success, you don't initially build housing that is out of reach of the area's residents. You stair step it. Your model works if the developer's goal is profit and leave.
One of the challenges to city planners is getting folks to jump from the suburbs back into the smoking donut hole that is the center of many cities. It doesn't work long term if you displace residents who aren't ready to leave.
In most of the examples we are talking about, the residents haven't fled the area because they cant afford to leave. As the area gentrifies they are displaced to either lower quality housing, or forced to go to housing they cant afford.
As I said, in most cases the area then loses the allure that brought the 'play bohemians' into the area and the displaced residents struggle to find housing.
But a couple thousand years ago tanned Romans fed "pasty white" christians to the lions and that's lots worse than fair housing issues. So I figure I'm due pizza reparations and should be able to walk into any Italian pizzeria and get a free slice and a coke because my people were persecuted.
You've just described why the much of the underdeveloped world is in the shape it is in - 'tribes' remembering affronts to their tribe which occurred generations ago.
Hey, I understand, we all have some degree of ethnocentricity, some more than others. Sad when it gets in the way.
Business_Casual
07-12-18, 12:11
Fairly far off topic in record time!
That's funny, I've always viewed it as a moneyed versus un-moneyed thing instead of a color thing. If you are talking revitalizing neighborhoods for the good of the residents and long term success, you don't initially build housing that is out of reach of the area's residents. You stair step it. Your model works if the developer's goal is profit and leave.
One of the challenges to city planners is getting folks to jump from the suburbs back into the smoking donut hole that is the center of many cities. It doesn't work long term if you displace residents who aren't ready to leave.
In most of the examples we are talking about, the residents haven't fled the area because they cant afford to leave. As the area gentrifies they are displaced to either lower quality housing, or forced to go to housing they cant afford.
As I said, in most cases the area then loses the allure that brought the 'play bohemians' into the area and the displaced residents struggle to find housing.
In my experience, having spent more time with people who are "more tan/less pasty" than myself, whenever the issue is brought up it is usually presented in racial terms and often equated with the "white man stealing Indian land" and then when the speech is over, a lot of people turned around and looked at me.
I got profiled before it was even a word. As for tribalism, sadly that's probably the nature of our species since we define the world visually more than anything else. Not everyone understands genetic exceptions (that when you classify humans according to visual traits members of each group will frequently have more genetic commonality with other groups that they don't look like) and the enlightened aren't always completely enlightened.
But every time I hear somebody talk about "the white race" and how we need to band together, I always think about if I'd rather hang out with Charles Manson or Neil Tyson. Or if it's a tribal thing would I rather spend the day with the Clinton or Carl Sagan (assuming for a moment he was still alive). And growing up I was more about Bruce Lee than John Wayne so the whole tribalism / race thing was virtually meaningless to me.
Fairly far off topic in record time!
Yeah, sorry.
But every time I hear somebody talk about "the white race" and how we need to band together, I always think about if I'd rather hang out with Charles Manson or Neil Tyson. Or if it's a tribal thing would I rather spend the day with the Clinton or Carl Sagan (assuming for a moment he was still alive). And growing up I was more about Bruce Lee than John Wayne so the whole tribalism / race thing was virtually meaningless to me.
Yeah, I'm the same way, so what were we discussing?
Yeah, sorry.
Me to!
Averageman
07-12-18, 18:07
So apparently no increases in the expenditures in defence for NATO countries,the US pulls out.
And
No Brexit for the UK, no trade the US.
Business_Casual
07-12-18, 18:15
Why do a deal with someone who won’t be in office in a month?
Why do a deal with someone who won’t be in office in a month?
Which player won't be in office a month from now?
Averageman
07-12-18, 20:20
Which player won't be in office a month from now?
May.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6766531/trump-may-brexit-us-deal-off/
In an extraordinary intervention timed to coincide with his UK visit, Mr Trump said Theresa May ignored his advice by opting for a soft Brexit strategy.
And he warned her any attempts to maintain close ties with the EU would make a lucrative US trade deal very unlikely.
Mr Trump said: “If they do a deal like that, we would be dealing with the European Union instead of dealing with the UK, so it will probably kill the deal.”
May.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6766531/trump-may-brexit-us-deal-off/
In an extraordinary intervention timed to coincide with his UK visit, Mr Trump said Theresa May ignored his advice by opting for a soft Brexit strategy.
And he warned her any attempts to maintain close ties with the EU would make a lucrative US trade deal very unlikely.
Mr Trump said: “If they do a deal like that, we would be dealing with the European Union instead of dealing with the UK, so it will probably kill the deal.”
And here I was hoping she would be the next Thatcher.
Business_Casual
07-13-18, 05:13
China thinks US should drop the trade war, oddly enough:
https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2018/07/12/china-suggests-trump-resolve-nato-dispute-by-cutting-defense-budget/
Averageman
07-13-18, 06:33
China thinks US should drop the trade war, oddly enough:
https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2018/07/12/china-suggests-trump-resolve-nato-dispute-by-cutting-defense-budget/
You know for someone who was on the "other side" of the wall, the German Chancellor certainly is not very cooperative with the people who financed the cold war that won her freedom is she?
I really wouldn't blame the POTUS if we pulled out of Germany and moved lock, stock and barrel to Poland.
The whole system in Germany is about screwing the US.
Grand58742
07-13-18, 07:49
The whole Trump and Germany thing rings true though. I think the threat of pulling out of NATO is something the media is blowing up and ends up being a big nothing burger (shocking, I know) but the overall question he asks is largely ignored by the media.
https://www.aol.com/article/news/2018/07/11/trump-and-merkel-are-headed-for-a-one-on-one-showdown-after-trump-said-germany-was-russias-puppet/23479949/
Interesting fact in that article that Reuters claims 35% of German oil and gas come from Russia. With that likely to go up in the future with the new pipeline. How exactly can you defend yourself (in Germany's case) if Russia really wanted to apply the screws to them? I'm talking economically and militarily. Not saying Russia would cut their throats economically, but Putin is a grand political chess master and such things are on the board for him.
Trump is correct in bringing up the NATO contributions as well as nations like Germany doing things like this. NATO and Germany wants to talk about the possible threat from Russia. But they put themselves in a position to be beholden to the same nation that's threatening them. They send in hard currency to Russia which in turn reinvests it in their military (possibly) and put themselves over the proverbial barrel by being far more dependent on a foreign source of energy from that same adversary.
Business_Casual
07-13-18, 08:20
I think it is worse than that. Russia is basically a commodity on the Chicago CME, prices up and Vlad is good, prices down and Vlad bad. Right? So we could, with the Saudis, flood the energy market and control Russia’s economy by proxy. But if our ally, whom we must defend by treaty, signs away all of their energy independence by engaging in a failed green renewables project and then fixing it by taking the majority of their energy from a strategic competitor, WTF? Top it off with them having to spend so much money on the migrants they let in that they can’t afford to fund a decent armored capability let alone train it and exercise it in theatre. I’d be pissed if I were Trump too. And leave them to deal with their own mess while I shift my focus to my greater strategic competitor.
Business_Casual
07-19-18, 08:25
China makes a move:
https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2018/07/18/china-warns-russia-us-friendliness-will-not-last-past-trump-presidency/
Averageman
07-19-18, 11:15
European Countries decided rather than working with Russia and perhaps even investing in Russia, it was more prudent to kick them when they were down.
I understand the hard feelings, but was that really the wisest move.
Putin being in charge is in perhaps a result of a situation these guys helped create.
Now they're getting their oil from a hard line Nationalist who has them on a string.
In the meantime they import millions of unskilled labor in to their population who are a burden not an asset to the labor force, thus even further burdening the economy.
The only logical way out of this is to work with Trump and offer free and unfettered trade to boost the economy they have.
Instead they become more dependant on a failing EU and slap the hand that was extended to help them?
I'm not impressed by Merkel and I'm not seeing GB understanding the natural eventual results of what is happening.
We don't need to support NATO if it's members choose to petulant children.
Five Billion in fines on Google, really? I've yet to see how these trade wars benefit an economy and I have yet to see how Germany plays fair. They're really not helping themselves in this situation.
Moose-Knuckle
07-19-18, 14:12
7n6 - reporting for duty as your Jiminy Cricket (hand salute, ready, two)
Where are you getting your stats? Because this is what I come up with:
Studies have shown that 40 million foreign born residents live in the US. Of that population, 11.7 million are undocumented. https://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/ois_ill_pe_2009.pdf
According to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, the countries of origin for the largest numbers of illegal immigrants are as follows (figures from 2014):
52809
The Urban Institute also estimates that between 65,000 and 75,000 Canadians currently live illegally in the United States (2008). http://www.wweek.com/portland/article-8470-hes-an-illegal-eh-lien.html
Western Civilization, i.e. Christian European centrist society- is to survive, it will be in Eastern Europe.
Unless you are not counting Catholics as Christians all is not lost. What is probably even more illuminating is this:
Hispanic Identity Fades Across Generations as Immigrant Connections Fall Away
More than 18% of Americans identify as Hispanic or Latino, the nation’s second largest racial or ethnic group. But two trends – a long-standing high intermarriage rate and a decade of declining Latin American immigration – are distancing some Americans with Hispanic ancestry from the life experiences of earlier generations, reducing the likelihood they call themselves Hispanic or Latino.
Among the estimated 42.7 million U.S. adults with Hispanic ancestry in 2015, nine-in-ten (89%), or about 37.8 million, self-identify as Hispanic or Latino. But another 5 million (11%) do not consider themselves Hispanic or Latino, according to Pew Research Center estimates. The closer they are to their immigrant roots, the more likely Americans with Hispanic ancestry are to identify as Hispanic.
The closer they are to their immigrant roots, the more likely Americans with Hispanic ancestry are to identify as Hispanic. Nearly all immigrant adults from Latin America or Spain (97%) say they are Hispanic. Similarly, second-generation adults with Hispanic ancestry (the U.S.-born children of at least one immigrant parent) have nearly as high a Hispanic self-identification rate (92%), according to Pew Research Center estimates.
By the third generation – a group made up of the U.S.-born children of U.S.-born parents and immigrant grandparents – the share that self-identifies as Hispanic falls to 77%. And by the fourth or higher generation (U.S.-born children of U.S.-born parents and U.S.-born grandparents, or even more distant relatives), just half of U.S. adults with Hispanic ancestry say they are Hispanic.
Declining immigration, high intermarriage rates
Immigration from Latin America played a central role in the U.S. Hispanic population’s growth and its identity during the 1980s and 1990s. But by the 2000s, U.S. births overtook the arrival of new immigrants as the main driver of Hispanic population dynamics. And the Great Recession, coupled with many other factors, significantly slowed the flow of new immigrants into the country, especially from Mexico.
As a result, the U.S. Hispanic population is still growing, but at a rate nearly half of what it was over a decade ago as fewer immigrants arrive in the U.S. and the fertility rate among Hispanic women has declined.
In 2015, 25.1% of Latino newlyweds married a non-Latino spouse and 18.3% of all married Latinos were intermarried; in 1980, 26.4% of Latino newlyweds intermarried and 18.1% of all married Latinos had a non-Latino spouse, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of government data.
In both 1980 and 2015, Latino intermarried rates were higher than those for blacks or whites.
As a result of high intermarriage rates, some of today’s Latinos have parents or grandparents of mixed heritage, with that share higher among later generations. According to the surveys, 18% of immigrants say that they have a non-Latino parent or grandparent in their family, a share that rises to 29% among the second generation and 65% among the third or higher generation, according to the Pew Research Center survey of self-identified Latino adults.
These trends also have implications for the future of Hispanic identity in the U.S. Lower immigration levels than in the past and continued high intermarriage rates may combine to produce a growing number of U.S. adults with Hispanic ancestors who may not identify as Hispanic or Latino.
AND HERE, MY FRIENDS, IS THE BOMBSHELL:
And even among those who do self-identify as Hispanic or Latino, those in the second and third or higher generations may see their identity as more tied to the U.S. than to the origins of their parents, a pattern observed in many previous5 Pew Research Center Latino surveys.
The survey is worth a read: http://www.pewhispanic.org/2017/12/20/hispanic-identity-fades-across-generations-as-immigrant-connections-fall-away/
My take: We are going to end up as a light tannish, largely Christian population, versus the pasty white, largely Christian population of a a century or so ago.
So, don fret too much.
We still don't need open borders though
Well the numbers of actual illegal aliens in the country has been skewed for decades so pardon me if I don't believe the .gov source you provided.
Fact is NO ONE knows exactly how many "undocumented migrants" there are here since they are not . . . wait for it . . . documented.
https://farm1.staticflickr.com/913/42608886205_d6c42944c1_z.jpg
RetroRevolver77
07-19-18, 14:32
All that would accomplish, is to motivate you to come up with another example. Let's not do that. I was merely refuting 7n6's 40,000,000 illegals most sane folks agree it is around 12,000,000 illegals.
That 11 million illegal aliens residing in the USA stat that NPR quotes- hasn't been updated since 2003 and is purposely downplayed by leftists to not alarm people just how bad the problem truly is. Even back then a lot of counties were fighting for government benefits for their illegal alien residents said that the government estimates for the actual numbers were to low. In fact the government statistics were so low that they even adjusted the US census at the time to reflect the large body of illegal aliens but still not reflect the real numbers living here. Sane folks like myself whom are red pilled and woke are not just digesting the MSM DNC narrative for our statistics. I stand by my statement that there are 40 million illegal aliens living within our country- maybe more.
This is an older article as well.
How many illegal aliens reside in the United States?
"The mainstream media, whenever it actually mentions the number of illegal aliens living in the United States, categorically quotes the official government figure of 8-12 million. This number originated with the Department of Homeland Security, which in December 2003 estimated 8 million to 12 million illegal aliens resided in the United States and that 700,000 new illegals enter each year and remain in the country.1 Those stale, outdated estimates have not changed for over 13 years, even though the official annual increase alone would yield a corrected estimate of 15.7 million to 19.7 million illegal aliens today (not adjusting for Obama's unconstitutional 2014 executive amnesty)."
....
"Alternative methodologies conclude that between 20 million and 40 million illegal aliens have evaded apprehension and live in the United States.
The official number was questioned by D.A. King of The Dustin Inman Society in 2004. Subsequently, an in-depth analysis was published by Fred Elbel1,7. In 2007, The Social Contract published an entire issue addressing the numbers of illegal aliens in the US2.
Nancy Boulton pointed out that two researchers at Bear Stearns Asset Management estimated that the number of illegal immigrants in 2005 could be as high as 20 million. Their figures were based on an analysis of the large discrepancy between official census estimates and growth in indicators such as remittances to the countries of origin, school enrollment and building permits.5,8"
...
"The analysis by James H. Walsh notes that estimates compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau (USCB), national surveys, governmental agencies, philanthropic organizations, religious charities, nongovernment statistics-keeping agencies, and immigrant advocates range from 7 million to 20 million illegal aliens. Walsh concludes that the number is closer to 2 times 20 million, or 40 million."
http://www.cairco.org/issues/how-many-illegal-aliens-reside-united-states
7n6
Averageman
07-19-18, 14:37
I've heard the number is thirty million and I believe that's in the ballpark.
according to the left global warming and all its issues :)
15 years ago when my wife was coming in and getting her green card I was hearing around 20 million and about 10 million of those were known the others were unknown but most all said reality is about 3-4x that ?
fact is we do not know and fact is all stats are usually faked big time by the left who is kinda in control of these stats
look how many mass shootings happen according to the left !
Business_Casual
07-19-18, 17:17
I've heard the number is thirty million and I believe that's in the ballpark.
There’s 12M in California alone.
I don't know where you guys get your information.
The Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) says there are 12.5 million. https://www.fairus.org/issue/illegal-immigration/how-many-illegal-immigrants-are-in-us
FAIR is roughly one million higher in their estimate than the other groups that track illegal immigrant numbers:
FAIR assumes that there are 12.5 million illegal immigrants, over a million more than other organizations estimate (FAIR is inconsistent here as the number of illegal immigrants they report on page 34 is 12.6 million). Pew estimates there are 11.3 million illegal immigrants, the Center for Migration Studies (CMS) estimates that there are 11 million illegal immigrants, and the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) estimates there are 11.43 million illegal immigrants. FAIR’s estimate of the number of illegal immigrants is more than a million more than that of their sister organization, the Center for Immigration Studies, that also shares their goal of reducing immigration. https://www.cato.org/blog/fairs-fiscal-burden-illegal-immigration-study-fatally-flawed
If you'd give me a source for the larger claims, I'd be glad to take an open-minded look.
Averageman
07-20-18, 00:17
https://nationaleconomicseditorial.com/2018/01/19/yale-study-shows-23-million-illegal-immigrants/
A working paper by Dr. Mohammad Fazel Zarandi from the Yale School of Management, coauthored by two other Yale professors, estimates that there are 22.8 million illegal immigrants in the United States.
This is over double estimates compiled by the Department of Homeland Security, which claims 11.1 million illegal aliens live in the US.
The paper’s abstract outlines some of the reasons why their estimate is both higher, and better than the current government statistics:
We apply standard operational principles of inflows and outflows to estimate the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States, using the best available data, including some that has only recently become available. We generate a lower bound for the number of undocumented immigrants using conservative parameter values that underestimate inflows and overestimate outflows.
Our lower bound is close to 17 million, 50% higher than the most prominent current estimate of 11.3 million, which is based on survey data and thus different sources and methods. Standard parameter values generate an estimate of 22.8 million undocumented immigrants, twice as large as the current estimate.
I think the inflow/outflow analysis of illegal immigration is a more truthful approach. If we rely on self answering surveys then we also have to believe there are only four gun owners in America, and boating accidents involving "armories" happen 100 times a day across the land. It seems the "about 10 million" illegals number has been used by politicos for decades, yet we get 700k coming in every year?
How many LEGAL Immigrants can't speak English? I would imagine most can get by. Yet we have entire schools now teaching in Spanish and many, many school districts providing ESL teachers and materials.
When I made friends with Vietnamese boat people in the early eighties they learned English right quick and their kids were forgetting Vietnamese already. The fact the Hispanics need tens of thousands of schools to teach in Spanish indicates a very large number of illegals to me at least. Way more than the apparently socially acceptable "about 10 million."
was doing my yard the other day in PHX its brutal but even getting old keeps me grounded in a bit of hard work etc..
so many these days hire out my neighbors walk past getting mail say hello and was saying how the landscapers they use are having a hard time since its harder to employ the illegals and keep them here :)
my neighbors are super liberal but nice old folks so they do not get into the hate crap and are good neighbors
so many these days hire out my neighbors walk past getting mail say hello and was saying how the landscapers they use are having a hard time since its harder to employ the illegals and keep them here :)
Good! Maybe we can get back to kids delivering papers and mowing lawns for a double sawbuck.
https://nationaleconomicseditorial.com/2018/01/19/yale-study-shows-23-million-illegal-immigrants/
A working paper by Dr. Mohammad Fazel Zarandi from the Yale School of Management, coauthored by two other Yale professors, estimates that there are 22.8 million illegal immigrants in the United States.
Thanks for that. I read the article and I'll look in to the actual study.
The article mentioned anchor babies. My feelings are different on the subject than most of yours.
Much of life is determined by the birth lottery, where you are born, who you are born to.
From the beginning, folks born in the U.S. have been considered Americans. That is the way it should be. In that respect they won the birth lottery.
The way to handle the problem has several solutions:
1) When deporting the family they have the choice whether to sever parental rights and leave their children who are citizens;
2) If the citizen children leave the country we ensure through fingerprints and DNA (or whatever) that we can positively identify them as a U.S. citizen;
3) Give them travel documents - a passport if they are old enough - and ensure they can get them renewed at the American Embassy or Consulates;
4) While abroad they have the same protections as does any American Citizen;
5) They (not mom and dad) can return to the United States at anytime just the same as any citizen
This does a couple of things: 1) ensures continuation of our historical practices and the law; 2) allows us to eff with Mexico or any other country these citizens return to; 3) will cause aneurysms among the Democrats.
Never happen, though.
Moose-Knuckle
07-21-18, 01:58
How many LEGAL Immigrants can't speak English? I would imagine most can get by. Yet we have entire schools now teaching in Spanish and many, many school districts providing ESL teachers and materials.
When I made friends with Vietnamese boat people in the early eighties they learned English right quick and their kids were forgetting Vietnamese already. The fact the Hispanics need tens of thousands of schools to teach in Spanish indicates a very large number of illegals to me at least. Way more than the apparently socially acceptable "about 10 million."
That and they are not here to assimilate. Like the meme I posted above the impoverished illegal aliens from Mexico and Central America are being exploited to make the southwest US into Aztlán / República del Norte via the Reconquista.
Or how The University of Texas at Arlington professor Dr. Jose Angel Gutierrez the founder of the NCLR (National Council of La Raza) puts it; "the browning of America".
Then there is always groups like Frente Nacionalista de México (Nationalist Front of Mexico) in play.
Business_Casual
07-21-18, 06:32
Immigration, while a worthy topic, is not this thread’s topic...
:cool:
Trump doubled-down on Russia. Or is it isolating China? Or trolling? Or all three?
https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/20/opinions/trumps-invite-to-putin-opinion-ghitis/index.html
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