View Full Version : On saturated markets...
With regard to the firearms world, I've heard on several occasions that the AR market is saturated/swamped. Seems that a new AR configuration comes out every month from a different manufacturer and prices seem quite reasonable - in some cases a "don't need it but can't pass it up at that price". I'm guilty of this recently myself. Overall, I feel this is a good thing for buyers in general.
Polymer-framed handguns could likely be placed in the same category.
Haven't heard the same said about optics, although there's a bewildering variety of choices out there for every need. I take it that the optics market hasn't quite reached the saturation point yet?
SomeOtherGuy
01-27-19, 13:28
Haven't heard the same said about optics, although there's a bewildering variety of choices out there for every need. I take it that the optics market hasn't quite reached the saturation point yet?
It is very, very close actually. Quality and hobby-grade RDS are saturated, 1-6x is getting there, higher magnification mildot/moadot scopes at all quality levels are saturated, etc. There's only 3 true holographic options out there, but that's probably 2.5 more than really needed. The only optics that aren't saturated are the emerging digital day/night scope category, and affordable quality thermal.
One day we will miss this over saturation....
I actually expect optics and NODs to be regulated along with ballistic armor at some point as they creep towards common affordability
Seems that every time I do an Internet search on optics, one or more companies pop up that I never heard of before. Of course, most of them are Chinese manufacture.
Having just got back from Shot Show 2019, I can say without a doubt that the entire industry as a whole is completely saturated. From top to bottom the industry full of manufactures trying to push the same product under a different brand name. I cant really think of any real innovation that has come out of the firearm industry. Now, I will say there has been some innovation regarding optics, especially thermal, night vision etc., but that innovation has a steep price. I'm not going to mention anyone by name but I can say everyone I talked to had the same sales pitch: my favorites being. "we were the first", "the military buys from us", "we have been around a lot longer" and "we pioneered this".
As far as AR type guns go, there all the same, except for a few companies that sell AR's that look like Hot Topic designed them. I know there are different levels in quality and price but as far as function and parts, they are the same. A lot of manufactures sell "high end" looking guns that function the same as any other gun yet there price point is on the affordable side for most people while others sell plain looking AR's with high prices and claim that there parts are "only the best".
It seems the hot, en vouge item right now is the AR Pistol, of all brands, features and brace styles. The only thing I ever bought close to that is a Galil Ace Pistol in 5.56, and waiting for my tax stamp so I can sbr it and put a folding stock on it. My e-form went into limbo with the government shutdown.
Averageman
01-27-19, 15:21
People are ignorant about optics until they finally learn that you can't go cheap and get quality.
I've noticed that more than a few people spend 2K on an excellent rifle, but for some reason balk at spending more than 300 on optics.
When they finally learn, they got a dresser drawer full of crappy broken optics and a used 1k quality scope on their 2K rifle.
I went the other way and have a $3k scope on a ten cent rifle.
FromMyColdDeadHand
01-27-19, 16:23
Optics. 15 years ago for PRS there was S&B at over $3k and IOR at $1500 when you talked about FFP scopes. Now I can’t count them all, and the $1k are pretty good scopes.
Really what is needed is some innovation. Illuminated MIL FFP tree reticle with zero-stop turrets are the ante now.
Night vision/thermal would be cool to get cheaper, but I don’t know how you’d get that into common competitions- which would drive adoption up and prices down.
I think the 224V is out because there is a lot of 6.8SPC head capacity and not enough demand. It’s a good round, but unless you rig some games for it, it will 300BO soon.
Arm band pistols are a news cycle away from being gone.
Actually, I’d like to see more on the security side- as in gun safes. Armored boxes haven’t seen much change in the last two centuries.
Pistols just suck, don’t know what you can do there really. Integrated suppressors would be the real interesting breakthrough, but current laws will stop that from happening.
Glock and many other plastic frame pistols have become the ricer car of the firearm world. Some are classy, but most are gawdy, tacky and awful. Yet they get people to buy them because "Shiny" sells. TiNi barrels are a sucker play on damn near every brand anymore. I used to think 1911's were for old geezers, but now I realize it's a craftsman gun and not everybody can fully appreciate them because they take some understanding and skill to really utilize, let alone modify on any scale.
BrigandTwoFour
01-27-19, 16:46
Just a personal opinion here, but I think the whole industry and culture is pausing before a redirect.
GWOT saw huge innovation in technology and accessories. Fat government contracts supplied capital for training companies to stand up and teach civilian/LE/mil. I feel like the message for 10 years has been "acquire acquire acquire."
But now everyone is tapped out, there are piles of gear in the closet, a safe full of things we don't shoot all that often, and the training schools are struggling to fill seats.
If I had my way, the new direction would be a serious push towards quality and investment in promoting local competitions. 2A culture can't last if it's the same people buying everything and getting old. I would love to see more informal matches for everything from high-power style to three-gun, and even the adventure racing sniper format.
Quality-wise, would a $300 optic today compare to a $100 optic 10 years ago, or has quality generally improved?
BrigandTwoFour
01-27-19, 18:54
Quality-wise, would a $300 optic today compare to a $100 optic 10 years ago, or has quality generally improved?
IMO, quality has improved and gotten more inexpensive.
Some of the old guard like Aimpoint and Trijicon are holding steady because of brand loyalty, .gov contracts, and their products are just that good. But the overall technology has just gotten cheaper and cheaper for everyone else to take advantage of it. So, to flip it around, what you can get for $150 today probably would have been $300-$400 10 years ago.
If I had my way, the new direction would be a serious push towards quality and investment in promoting local competitions. 2A culture can't last if it's the same people buying everything and getting old. I would love to see more informal matches for everything from high-power style to three-gun, and even the adventure racing sniper format.
Good luck. I've beat my head against the wall trying to get people to come to informal matches for two decades. I hope someone finds the magic to convince them to come, I sure couldn't. I will say that a couple local guys put together a PRS match that went pretty well last spring, so maybe there's hope. The cost of entry to PRS is pretty damn high, though.
Just a personal opinion here, but I think the whole industry and culture is pausing before a redirect.
GWOT saw huge innovation in technology and accessories. Fat government contracts supplied capital for training companies to stand up and teach civilian/LE/mil. I feel like the message for 10 years has been "acquire acquire acquire."
But now everyone is tapped out, there are piles of gear in the closet, a safe full of things we don't shoot all that often, and the training schools are struggling to fill seats.
If I had my way, the new direction would be a serious push towards quality and investment in promoting local competitions. 2A culture can't last if it's the same people buying everything and getting old. I would love to see more informal matches for everything from high-power style to three-gun, and even the adventure racing sniper format.
I agree. We've seen a few new ranges open that have started new matches. I'm not sure how it's affected the total number of shooters vs fewer shooters per match due to more matches. Our club has just started the UML version of 3gun which has a couple of division options besides rifle, shotgun, and pistol. We had a good match yesterday.
BrigandTwoFour
01-28-19, 06:28
Good luck. I've beat my head against the wall trying to get people to come to informal matches for two decades. I hope someone finds the magic to convince them to come, I sure couldn't. I will say that a couple local guys put together a PRS match that went pretty well last spring, so maybe there's hope. The cost of entry to PRS is pretty damn high, though.
The perceived barrier to entry is the biggest sticking point across the board. I polled my blog readers a while back about it, and that was the resounding answer. If it's not the cost to get started, then it's the travel required. If it's not those, then it's feeling like they're going to be looked down upon by others for not having gucci gear. Since they don't actually show up, they don't know how classifications work nor how helpful everyone else can be.
I think there would be a lot of good done if the companies and organizations put emphasis on reducing that perceived barrier to entry with sponsoring more small stuff in more places. For better or worse, the perceived image of gun owners is now either tactical-timmy running around like a SOF dude, or OFWG. We know there's a lot in between, but that's now what gets shown to the public.
I agree. We've seen a few new ranges open that have started new matches. I'm not sure how it's affected the total number of shooters vs fewer shooters per match due to more matches. Our club has just started the UML version of 3gun which has a couple of division options besides rifle, shotgun, and pistol. We had a good match yesterday.
I'm jealous. Since moving to Northern Virginia, I've been frustrated by the lack of outdoor ranges and events. The only two that seem to have any activity are driving down to Quantico (which is doable, but I'd need help getting access to the base) or driving out to West Virginia at PNTC, which is mainly PRS stuff.
We're pretty lucky that we have a few options within 60-90 minutes.
Doc Safari
01-28-19, 10:25
In my experience it seems two big things drive black rifle sales: When we're fighting a war and when legislation restricting them is feared. Both scenarios are kind of on a "low simmer" right now. I remember the GWOT making the M4 "the" gun you had to have, and every panic sells AR-15's faster than snowcones in June. Until we find ourselves pushing backing against an enemy in a wider hot war, or people start fearing they won't be able to buy them anymore, AR sales are going to be soft.
Outlander Systems
01-28-19, 10:45
Call me when there's an EOTech-sized 640 thermal, a 2k-lumen weaponlight with a 12 hour runtime and a GPS replacement for the PVS-14 compass.
Until then, it's all same-shit/different day.
Yeah, I agree...The firearm market at this point is just every tatted-up knucklehead and their dog churning out the same, derivative crap. 11,000 slightly different variants of ARs, 1911s, poly strikers, and suppressors. Zero innovation.
B-O-R-I-N-G.
I got a safe full of that crap and it's all boring. Boring, boring, boring. Not-spending-money-on-that-crap-anymore-boring.
People are ignorant about optics until they finally learn that you can't go cheap and get quality.
I've noticed that more than a few people spend 2K on an excellent rifle, but for some reason balk at spending more than 300 on optics.
When they finally learn, they got a dresser drawer full of crappy broken optics and a used 1k quality scope on their 2K rifle.I don't think they're so much ignorant as they, the shooters, fall into two categories. People who use their tools and rely on them to save their lives. And those who just want to shoot some. I treat some of my rifles like that. Have an old Ruger hunting rifle with a Redfield scope. Rifle came that way but for how much I use it that Redfield is perfectly fine. I've shot maybe 20 rounds out of it in 7 years. ARs on the other hand..... totally different story
Averageman
01-28-19, 11:18
Yeah, I agree...The firearm market at this point is just every tatted-up knucklehead and their dog churning out the same, derivative crap. 11,000 slightly different variants of ARs, 1911s, poly strikers, and suppressors. Zero innovation.
B-O-R-I-N-G.
I got a safe full of that crap and it's all boring. Boring, boring, boring. Not-spending-money-on-that-crap-anymore-boring.
I can deal with boring as long as it is reliable.
Colt, Glock, BCM that's the boring reliability that I can appreciate.
Innovation sometimes brings with it an entire new set of flaws for you to deal with.
Doc Safari
01-28-19, 11:30
I can deal with boring as long as it is reliable.
Colt, Glock, BCM that's the boring reliability that I can appreciate.
Innovation sometimes brings with it an entire new set of flaws for you to deal with.
This is the difference between someone who uses a firearm as a tool, and a "hobbyist". The person who sees a gun as a tool prefers boring reliability. The hobbyist and/or collector always wants new toys.
I have Glocks, BCM ARs, LMT ARs, and a variety of HK stuff. Sure...boring, soul-less, reliability.
But at this point, the ENTIRE INDUSTRY is just derivative knock-offs of that stuff. Any joker can mill out a lower and stamp their logo on it, and all of them do. It's not interesting, just boring.
I'm burned out on AR this and striker-fired that...When I have time to head to the range these days, I take my single actions and maybe a lever gun.
I think consumerism across the board is down. Not just in gun world.
The "bro operator" dogma seems to be played out. People seemed to be really questioning does "this" do anything better than "that", do I need SWAT level training if I am not actually doing SWAT stuff. A lot of folks I talk with have more of a "nope, I'm good" attitude.
Like stated earlier, fear and war drove the market for a long time. That does not seem to be the case anymore. There are more people selling than buying. Manufactures are going to need to adjust.
As to the training industry side of things, I don't know. But, it sure seems like, from the outside looking in, the abundance of expensive noise making classes taught by "instructors" with hyped and/or sometimes false resumes has not done any favors to the legitimate real deal guys trying to do good work and pass on usable knowledge.
But my view admittedly might be skewed since I currently fall in the less is more camp. My only purchase plans this year are a back up J-frame and ammo as needed.
I can’t really think of many technologies that advance slower than firearms. I mean when I saw Aliens in 1986 I would have never thought we would still be using centerfire cartridges and the military would still be using basically the safe rifle design from Vietnam in 2019.
The next advancements need to happen in ammunition. We should have electromagnetic shoulder rifled rail guns by now.:p
Five_Point_Five_Six
01-28-19, 16:00
15 years ago if you had a Glock 17 and a Colt 6920 you were about as squared away as you could be.
Fast forward to 2019, if you have a Glock 17 and a Colt 6920 you're still pretty well squared away.
Outlander Systems
01-28-19, 16:48
Fact.
Until these things start slinging directed-energy, the only innovation left to wring out of this rag is in optical sighting systems.
15 years ago if you had a Glock 17 and a Colt 6920 you were about as squared away as you could be.
Fast forward to 2019, if you have a Glock 17 and a Colt 6920 you're still pretty well squared away.
15 years ago if you had a Glock 17 and a Colt 6920 you were about as squared away as you could be.
Fast forward to 2019, if you have a Glock 17 and a Colt 6920 you're still pretty well squared away.
M4Cs Dark Knight Eurodriver has been preaching this for some time now.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I went retro with my most recent purchase. For the millennials who may be unfamiliar, that's a carry handle and a standard A2 buttstock :D
https://i.imgur.com/ZHpeXmbl.jpg
Five_Point_Five_Six
01-28-19, 19:30
Fact.
Until these things start slinging directed-energy, the only innovation left to wring out of this rag is in optical sighting systems.
Optics are definitely one area that has grown in leaps in bounds in the last decade or so.
I went retro with my most recent purchase. For the millennials who may be unfamiliar, that's a carry handle and a standard A2 buttstock :D
https://i.imgur.com/ZHpeXmbl.jpg
Suh-weet! I keep thinking I need an A2 or A4 in my life just something else always comes up. Maybe one day.
I can’t wait until new MWS’ and SR-25’s fall to $1500 due to the saturated market. Lol
Outlander Systems
02-01-19, 08:01
I'm gonna leave this here:
https://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2019/01/30/shot-2019-steiner-cqt-thermal-overlaid-reflex-day-sight/
https://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/IMG_2431-660x495.jpg
https://www.gunsamerica.com/digest/radetecs-smart-slide-shot-show-2019/
https://gastatic.com/digest/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/radetec4-1024x768.jpg
The future is now, old man.
I have Glocks, BCM ARs, LMT ARs, and a variety of HK stuff. Sure...boring, soul-less, reliability.
But at this point, the ENTIRE INDUSTRY is just derivative knock-offs of that stuff. Any joker can mill out a lower and stamp their logo on it, and all of them do. It's not interesting, just boring.
I'm burned out on AR this and striker-fired that...When I have time to head to the range these days, I take my single actions and maybe a lever gun.
Yep, this is why PRS Production Class (rifles and scopes under $2k MSRP), NRL rimfire, and revolvers are taking off. Everyone is burned out on black rifles and striker fired polymer pistols because they have gotten so prevalent they are just boring.
If we are talking black rifles, there is a sea change occurring with outfits like Palmetto State Armory. PSA is not just some dude with a 5 axis CNC pushing out billet receiver sets -- they have huge economies of scale, gold plated relationships with industry giants like FN, and growing market awareness. Once they get their QC issues under control (and they will) they will have very inexpensive full-up factory warrantied rifles spanning roller lock to AR to AK and everything in between for half of what competitors are charging. They are already resetting the market expectation for pricing even while evolving their products -- heck, they're almost to the point of an impulse purchase when you can get a full up freefloated AR upper for under $300 (and sometimes under $200). Junk? For guys on this forum, maybe, but 99% of shooters see an American company offering decent products at a compelling price point.
Probably going to catch flak for this but oh well.
I firmly believe that a persons safety is a responsibility of the individual, not anyone else, and they should be able to accomplish that in anyway they see fit to do so, whether that's a j-frame in the pocket or a suppressed SBR by the bed. Same-same as far as I am concerned.
But.....
If we, as in the gun community, were to be painfully truthful with ourselves the realization that most of what we do is just hobby. One can rationalize it any way they want too, but if your life/livelihood does not directly revolve around being armed as a requirement, then it really does fall into the category want vs. need.
I think the markets are starting to reflect that.
A large part of the consumer side of the gun industry is fear driven. People tend to buy more stuff even if they don’t need it when there’s a fear that it might be banned and unable to obtain.
SomeOtherGuy
02-01-19, 12:32
If we, as in the gun community, were to be painfully truthful with ourselves the realization that most of what we do is just hobby. One can rationalize it any way they want too, but if your life/livelihood does not directly revolve around being armed as a requirement, then it really does fall into the category want vs. need.
I think the markets are starting to reflect that.
A large part of the consumer side of the gun industry is fear driven. People tend to buy more stuff even if they don’t need it when there’s a fear that it might be banned and unable to obtain.
Both are true.
It doesn't help that while AR, AKM and striker-pistol designs are really refined and cheap right now, there is little really new that has widespread appeal. The ACR, XCR, SCAR and similar designs have remained too expensive to get wide interest, especially with the basic AR platform 99.99% debugged. The tools are mature. If you're a tool collector, it's time to move on. If you're a sportsman or professional, there is unlimited room for you to advance your skills, but the tools are not holding you back.
For the new or novice shooter who's on the fence about buying that new AR, this is a good time to take advantage of current prices.
There really isn't too much I want that isn't available already (besides NFA stuff that requires jumping through hoops to acquire).
But...
An EOTech with Aimpoint battery life would be nice.
Surefire Vampire lights with a higher white light lumen output (the current 250-400 lumen options kinda.. suck).
A Colt SOCOM barrel with midlength gas system would be awesome.
We already have KAC, LMT, Radian etc.. not sure what else there is to do at this point.
Optics, lights, night vision (digital, maybe?), thermal, and suppressors are where the innovation is happening I think, though it is happening slower than I'd like.
Sent from my SM-N910P using Tapatalk
ramairthree
02-01-19, 15:57
I went retro with my most recent purchase. For the millennials who may be unfamiliar, that's a carry handle and a standard A2 buttstock :D
https://i.imgur.com/ZHpeXmbl.jpg
My SP1 I bought in HS about 35 years ago, and the Bushmaster CAR in 1993, and the ban era Colt HBAR all meet that criteria.
I fall into the not using weapons professionally phase of my life, and not likely to need them to save my life.
But I have a collector, hobbyist, tinkerer streak. About half a dozen ARs I have bought new, complete. The rest of these plus another half dozen or so were various levels of built. If they were not so quick, easy, accessible, inexpensive, and fun to build/work on, they would be like my AKs, SIGs, HKs, etc. and I would three or four or five or six or whatever of them.
Fixed carry handle ARs may not be state of the art, but a well trained guy with one, let alone adding a scope or red dot on an old school forward slung Mount is still well armed.
I am also at a stage where I find many of the dream guns of my use to be a pain in the ass to set up, use, etc. and find myself not all that into them anymore. You also end up with a lot of semi finished projects still not fully set up.
And, as others have mentioned, some days you just say F it, grab a box or two of 38 and head to the range with a lever gun.
Or grab a stock, no frills Glock or beretta and go shooting while the light/laser equipped tuned pistol with threaded barrel and RDS stay home.
ARs are fantastic for a hobbyist. As opposed to the efforts and stuff needed for HK, AKs, etc.
Much like with old cars, old dive watches, I just find guns neat.
https://i649.photobucket.com/albums/uu220/ramairfour/70388FB5-C8CE-4C4B-8F22-49E9C548BD3B_zpsqwo744sv.jpeg (https://s649.photobucket.com/user/ramairfour/media/70388FB5-C8CE-4C4B-8F22-49E9C548BD3B_zpsqwo744sv.jpeg.html)
I really enjoy perusing the gunwebs and ogling the newest and greatest. I enjoy reading about them all, I really do. But then I always go back to- what will it do that I cannot do now? For my purposes, nada. So I buy ammo and magazines instead and sign up for another training course.
FromMyColdDeadHand
02-01-19, 17:25
https://i649.photobucket.com/albums/uu220/ramairfour/70388FB5-C8CE-4C4B-8F22-49E9C548BD3B_zpsqwo744sv.jpeg (https://s649.photobucket.com/user/ramairfour/media/70388FB5-C8CE-4C4B-8F22-49E9C548BD3B_zpsqwo744sv.jpeg.html)
I struggle to figure out what to do with slings on rifles when they are stored like this. I do the wrap and drape like you, but my system, due to limited wall space in the armory, are double stacked, which makes the issue even worse. Anyone come up with anything better?
An EOTech with Aimpoint battery life would be nice.
A Colt SOCOM barrel with midlength gas system would be awesome.
The Sig Romeo 8H has a 50,000 hour battery and a circle reticle
And while not a SOCOM the the Colt CCU barrel is a mid length.
I struggle to figure out what to do with slings on rifles when they are stored like this. I do the wrap and drape like you, but my system, due to limited wall space in the armory, are double stacked, which makes the issue even worse. Anyone come up with anything better?
I fold them and use twist ties to keep in place.
2. An EOTech with Aimpoint battery life would be nice.
1. A Colt SOCOM barrel with midlength gas system would be awesome.
Nailed it with those.
Interesting to read everyone’s perspectives. I’m still a new guy overall, so I’m enjoying trying stuff out for the heck of it, but I’m settling on what I like. Which seems to be a BCM SBR, Colt CCU, and Colt AR6720.
I hope we don’t cease seeing innovation, and I think there is still room to get creative, particularly on the technology side of things. But at the same time, I think the ‘coolness’ of the black rifle is on the wain currently, just based on anecdotal observation.
ramairthree
02-02-19, 10:23
I bounce back from pulling the Qd ones, wrapping, rubber band, some have a little Velcro strap, etc. but whether the wall mount or in the safe, invariably I end up with a bunch of slings snaked everywhere.
I have a little 12x12 gun room with three walls for mounting, couple of safes, reloading bench, etc. and entropy always wins.
Some others have mentioned consolidating.
The organized, practical part of me wants to.
The border, collector, hobbyist side of me does not.
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