War, Children, Is Just a Shot Away....with China

[Doc Safari]

Or is it?



https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-30/us-china-war-just-shot-away


The new currency war began in January 2010 with efforts of the Obama administration to promote U.S. growth with a weak dollar. By August 2011, the U.S. dollar reached an all-time low on the Fed’s broad real index.

Other nations retaliated, and the period of the “cheap dollar” was followed by the “cheap euro” and “cheap yuan” after 2012.

Once again, currency wars proved to be a dead end.

Now the trade wars are well underway. They may be set to resume once the current “truce” between the U.S. and China expires on March 1. If no deal is reached, massive new tariffs will likely take effect.

But the biggest question now is if a shooting war will follow.


There’s little doubt that the most dangerous place in the world today in terms of potential war has been the South China Sea.

I have written frequently about possible confrontations between the U.S. and China in the South China Sea. International law recognizes claims of six separate nations to parts of that sea, and the U.S. is treaty partners with one of them (the Philippines).

China claims the entire sea (except for a narrow shoreline stretch near each surrounding country). China is claiming control based on ancient imperial arrangements and argues that the West and its South Asian allies “stole” the territory from them.

China has aggressively built up man-made islands in the area by dredging sand onto rocks and atolls. These islands are then being fortified with airstrips, anti-aircraft weapons and surveillance technology.

But both the ancient claims and the theft narrative are open to serious dispute. The U.S. and the other nations involved reject those claims and insist on rights of passage and free navigation and sharing of natural resources such as oil, natural gas, undersea mining and seafood among others.

The U.S. and its allies, including Japan and the U.K., have sent naval vessels to cruise waters claimed by China and to uphold rights of passage and their status as open waters.


An even greater potential conflict lies in the Strait of Taiwan, which separates the island of Formosa from the mainland of Red China. China claims Taiwan as a “breakaway province” and part of China. The Taiwanese government claims that it is the lawful government of all of China, although there is a strong independence movement there also.

Two U.S. warships recently passed through the strait as a reaffirmation of rights of free passage and a show of support for Taiwan.

China regards the passage of U.S. vessels as highly provocative and has threatened to block such transits with force. The South China Sea is a problem, but the Taiwan Strait is viewed in existential terms by China.


The entire situation is like a powder keg waiting for the match to light it. The risks include not only intentional combat but accidental shootings and collisions, which are not uncommon at sea, especially when two vessels are shadowing each other.

In fact, the greatest risk might not be an outright attack by either side but an accident or miscommunication that escalates into a firefight. We cannot avoid the real possibility that conflicting naval activities in both bodies of water will result in a violent incident or even war. And once an incident occurs, it could set off a chain of escalation that could result in open warfare.


Trump is not someone to back down when it comes to American interests around the world, and Chinese leadership does not want to appear weak before the U.S.

That’s especially true at a time of great economic uncertainty. Communist Party leadership is desperate to maintain the support of the people, or else it risks losing the “mandate of heaven.”

China does not want war at this time. But diverting the people’s attention away from domestic problems toward a foreign foe is an old trick leaders use to unite the people in times of uncertainty. Rallying the people around the flag is a tried and true method to garner support.

If China’s leadership decides that the risk of losing legitimacy at home outweighs the risk of conflict with the United States, the likelihood of war rises dramatically.

I’m not predicting it, but wars have started over less. Currency wars, trade wars, finally shooting wars. We’re currently two-thirds of the way there.

My take: Not gonna happen. China and the US are too economically intertwined. If we go to war with China Wal-Mart's shelves will be empty and billions of unemployed Chinese will revolt. Not gonna happen.

What say you?

[Averageman]

I would agree.
The economic bond between us means we have reached an economic "MAD" situation. Creating mutually beneficial trade agreements to both of our advantages means we could possibly squeeze out most other world players long term.
The EU and Russia should be very concerned if we come to such an agreement.

[BoringGuy45]

It's in neither our or China's best interest to start a war with the other, and we both know it. Unless one side or the other makes a military move to actually seize land, trade routes, or resources that will cripple the other, neither side is going to start a full scale war. Even if it did happen, as much as we like to do the whole "we're ****ed" and "our military ain't what it used to be..." self-pity parties, we're still the most powerful military in the world. Our technology and force projection capabilities still are way ahead of China's. Either way, the Chinese Communist Party can't be trusted with much, but they can be trusted to do what they feel is in their best interests. Starting a war with the (still) most powerful nation on Earth is obviously not that.

My biggest concerns right now are on the home front, and with Iran. Iran is a very powerful country with one of the largest armies in the world, and they're positioning themselves to go to war with Israel. Also, being Islamic extremists, they can't be trusted to do what's truly in their best interests, because they believe destroying the Jews in the name of Allah is their holy duty and, thus, in their best interests.

[chuckman]

The short answer is "no.". The longer one is "hell, no".

[sundance435]

It's in neither our or China's best interest to start a war with the other, and we both know it. Unless one side or the other makes a military move to actually seize land, trade routes, or resources that will cripple the other, neither side is going to start a full scale war. Even if it did happen, as much as we like to do the whole "we're ****ed" and "our military ain't what it used to be..." self-pity parties, we're still the most powerful military in the world. Our technology and force projection capabilities still are way ahead of China's. Either way, the Chinese Communist Party can't be trusted with much, but they can be trusted to do what they feel is in their best interests. Starting a war with the (still) most powerful nation on Earth is obviously not that.

My biggest concerns right now are on the home front, and with Iran. Iran is a very powerful country with one of the largest armies in the world, and they're positioning themselves to go to war with Israel. Also, being Islamic extremists, they can't be trusted to do what's truly in their best interests, because they believe destroying the Jews in the name of Allah is their holy duty and, thus, in their best interests.

I'm not concerned about a shooting war within the next 10 years, but within 10 years China will realistically be able to overtake Taiwan by force. That's going to change the dynamics on a lot of fronts. If they're able to pull off "Made in China 2025" and "Belts and Roads" in some semblance of what they've planned, then coupled with their military capability, that will be a true nightmare for us. China doesn't have to be the largest economy (though it probably will be) or the most powerful country militarily (which they're not trying to be). They just have to be a country that other countries will seriously think twice about pissing off.

As for Iran, some of its people might like to wipe Israel off the map, but I'm not convinced that Israel is anything more than a convenient scapegoat/distraction for the regime.

[vicious_cb]

Not gonna happen. More likely China will collapse much like Soviet Union did within our lifetime.

[Firefly]

Not gonna happen. More likely China will collapse much like Soviet Union did within our lifetime.

This.

China might try one last hurrah but it is as over reliant on export and they can’t play cheap labor forever. Plus I figure another Tiannemen will happen.

If North Korea falls it will be essentially 1991 all over again.

Ain’t skeered

[Digital_Damage]

I Quit reading at

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...just-shot-away

[Business_Casual]

I assume there are factions in Chinese politics and despite their insistence on one leader, it must require consensus to attack the world’s lone hyperpower.

[Jsp10477]

All it will take is a change from the petro dollar to the petro yuan. Isn’t China heavily invested in Venezuela?

[AKDoug]

All it will take is a change from the petro dollar to the petro yuan. Isn’t China heavily invested in Venezuela?

Venezuela may have the world's largest proven oil reserves, but that number really means nothing. It's not a very big country and there isn't much likelihood they'll have any new discoveries. In the U.S. they had a new find in the Permian Basin that has the potential to double the U.S.'s reserves. They still haven't drilled and tested 90% of Alaska yet. We haven't legalized offshore drilling in a large portion of the U.S. and there is likely to be piles of oil still out there.

[grnamin]

This.

China might try one last hurrah but it is as over reliant on export and they can’t play cheap labor forever. Plus I figure another Tiannemen will happen.

If North Korea falls it will be essentially 1991 all over again.

Ain’t skeeredSpeaking of cheap labor... as china's middle class grows, they've shifted some manufacturing jobs that don't appeal to said middle class over to African countries.

Sent from my G8341 using Tapatalk

[Firefly]

Speaking of cheap labor... as china's middle class grows, they've shifted some manufacturing jobs that don't appeal to said middle class over to African countries.

Sent from my G8341 using Tapatalk


People thought Sam Hyde was crazy. He wasn't.

Do you really want your phone, shoes, or TV made in Africa?

[Moose-Knuckle]

Senator Feinstein has had a CHICOM handler for twenty years. How many more DNC elected officials have one? China owns/operates/leases major port terminals in the US, Canada, and Mexico. SEZ's (special economic zones) are a thing now.

They have a lot of 21st century Trojan horses already in place not to mention the backdoor access they have with hardware/software manufactured in China.

People are stuck on WWII, if US / China relations go critical mass their not going to float over here on LCVP's lol.



https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7814/46212271724_036250518b_b.jpg

[Doc Safari]

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/03/02/defense-experts-china-poses-an-existential-threat-to-americachina-poses-existential-threat-america/


“China for 30 years has been assiduously gathering economic power in all regions of the planet, using this economic power to gather political networks, and is…today convincing those political networks to begin military cooperation to proto-alliance cooperation with China,” he said.

For example, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization started in 1996 as an economic cooperation body, but “all it produces are military exercises,” Fisher said.

He said in July, China announced the China Africa Defense and Security Forum, which includes every country on the African continent but is “controlled by the People’s Liberation Army.”

“So this is the beginning of a second proto-alliance, and they make no bones publicly [that they are] working to form a similar forum in all the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean,” he said.

Experts on the panel said China is the largest source of support outside the region for the Cuban communist regime, the Venezuelan dictatorship, and other left-wing regimes.

Retired Navy Captain Jim Fanell, a former intelligence officer and current fellow at the Geneva Center for Security, said more and more Chinese navy vessels have been going to the Caribbean.

“I expect at some point in the near future, you’re going to start seeing Chinese intelligence collection vessels operating in the Caribbean and more closely to each of our coasts, because they’ve been very frustrated that we’ve been operating inside the first island chain in the Western Pacific,” he said.

Fisher said on top of these “proto-alliances,” China is working on a power-projection military, with a navy that will have anywhere from 10 to 15 aircraft carriers by 2050, hundreds of large transport aircraft, and medium and lightweight army forces that can be deployed around the world.

“And this is the challenge that your children and your grandchildren are facing, and the reason why some of the things President Trump has done … are so very important, and why they must be continued,” he said.

Frank Gaffney, founder and president of the Center for Security Policy, said he has also seen increasingly aggressive rhetoric from senior Chinese military officers.

“Increasingly there have been now remarks by senior Chinese Peoples Liberation Army officers calling for military action against the United States,” he said.

Gaffney said he would not put a “high probability” on making it through the next decade without a war on China. “It’s a function not of us starting it, but of us preventing the Chinese thinking they can benefit from doing so.”


But experts on the panel also said Chinese predominance is not a foregone conclusion, if the U.S. acts.

Fanell argued that the U.S. needs to grow its naval presence in East Asia in order to keep international shipping lanes open, and praised the Trump administration for increasing naval operations in the region.

“We have seen in the last two years under this administration a great increase in not just these freedom of navigation operations that you hear about frequently, but also in carrier operations…between the United States and the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force, or the Royal Navy.

“And so we’re starting to remind China that we have been in these waters and we’re there not to control them, but we’re there to make sure that people have free access to markets and freedom to buy, sell, and trade, and that’s the assurance and the deterrent credibility we have with presence,” he said.

Fisher argued that the U.S. should take full advantage of the end of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) agreement to start building up an arsenal of medium- and intermediate-range ballistic and cruise missiles in the region, build the space force, and make clear the U.S. will share new technologies with allies who are also threatened by China.

[26 Inf]

Somewhere a Chinese strategist is considering all of this: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/chinas-population-destiny-the-looming-crisis/

Childless conservatives bitching about the changing ethnic face of America's population need to read this article.

[duece71]

How would a Chicom peasant revolt be bad? If its going to happen. get it on.

[Honu]

China was a world super power from 1700 BC to about 1100 BC then again about 1000 BC to about 750 BC but even to about 250 BC had insane powers strongholds whatever you want to say
as we jump up to today they maintained on and off till about 1800s when the started loosing out again ? so they have not been on top for a few hundred years ? they have been there done this many times so they know time and sheer population etc.. is on their side and the willing to sacrifice and so on also they play the game very well
we know from the last 100 years they are willing to sacrifice millions of their own to try to gain back and say well that did not work back to the climb and forgive and move on

heck they turned there wall into a tourist attraction !!!! we cant even build a big fence ? theirs can be seen from space !!! and how long ago was that :)

so lets see close to 4000 years of history they have been a world super power for long chunks and sometimes slipped to not the top for up to 500 years at a time

we have been a world super power since WWII before that we were lower on the world power super list :) so 70-80 years vs 4000 years we have a LOT to learn


SO China as many know are in it for the long run and realize 100s of years changes things as they have been there done that many times and realize this is a LONG game and can wait it out and sacrifices are part of the game

its a whole new game of course with the way travel is etc.. but again they have way more experience then we do BUT we do know and listen to history learn from it and so on so the game has changed BUT if the left gets what they want we wont be top for long

so at this point in time China can wait it out but no doubt will do what it can how it can all along the way lying cheating stealing killing doing whatever it needs to
heck look at the muslim labor camps they run ! funny to turn it on them but they would do it to any anti China group or religion or ethnic etc.. so you have to take that as they do what they do and people think poor china but there is insane wealth that is hidden in that country and with that population the wealthy can kill off the equivalent whole population of our country and still be OK population wise

its not a matter of if its a matter of when but IMHO the testing or war or whatever you want to call it it will happen at some point again 4000 years of history proves that

edit to say our one huge problem is sharing our knowledge that is then given or sold to China anway and heck now we just give it to them and say HERE YA GO like idiots
we need to stop sharing our military tech and hold it close and build up helping no others at all but give them old stuff we know is outdated and also we build in kill switches in a sense to everything we do give out as old
IMHO anyway ;)

[FromMyColdDeadHand]

How would a Chicom peasant revolt be bad? If its going to happen. get it on.

Tens of millions dead, the production of almost every facet of modern life going offline, and civil war in a nuclear armed country, a refugee crisis that would make Syria look like walk in the park.. never mind the Junta that runs China starting an external war to blunt an internal war pressure.

But other than that, all good stuff...

[Ed L.]

Our technology and force projection capabilities still are way ahead of China's

Except that we would be having to move forces half way around the world while China would be fighting in their own home waters where they have lots of shorter ranged fast patrol craft equipped with some surprisingly modern anti-ship missiles. They might not be good for power projection but they would be hell in home waters. They have DF-21 antiship ballistic missiles and YJ-12 and YJ-18 land, sea and air launched anti-ship missiles. The YJ-12 and YJ-18 are actually more advanced and longer ranged than our decades-old Harpoon antiship missiles.

China has been hard at work on anti-access weapons, strategies, and tactics which would make it impossible for use to fight them in their home waters without suffering heavy losses.

[SteyrAUG]

Except that we would be having to move forces half way around the world while China would be fighting in their own home waters where they have lots of shorter ranged fast patrol craft equipped with some surprisingly modern anti-ship missiles. They might not be good for power projection but they would be hell in home waters. They have DF-21 antiship ballistic missiles and YJ-12 and YJ-18 land, sea and air launched anti-ship missiles. The YJ-12 and YJ-18 are actually more advanced and longer ranged than our decades-old Harpoon antiship missiles.

China has been hard at work on anti-access weapons, strategies, and tactics which would make it impossible for use to fight them in their home waters without suffering heavy losses.

Well one of the basic truisms of war is "Don't invade China."

Hopefully were aren't dumb enough to do that one. China has watched us stand by as Russia has reclaimed parts of it's former Union. China has territorial ambitions and wonders if we might continue to sit on our hands while buying their products in Wal Mart.

[flenna]

Well one of the basic truisms of war is "Don't invade China

Along with "Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line!" .

[sundance435]

Well one of the basic truisms of war is "Don't invade China."

Hopefully were aren't dumb enough to do that one. China has watched us stand by as Russia has reclaimed parts of it's former Union. China has territorial ambitions and wonders if we might continue to sit on our hands while buying their products in Wal Mart.

I dunno, Japan was doing okay until they decided to invade SE Asia and bomb Pearl Harbor. China is all about soft-power projection. "Buying" Africa fits perfectly within their plan. I don't see them as having any desire for a conventional conflict with the U.S. - they stand to lose way too much. China's "memory" is thousands of years. They aren't in a hurry to invade Taiwan - odds are that if they wait long enough, they'll have Taiwan back without any real struggle. That's the problem with our view of China as an adversary, they're willing to wait much longer to achieve true strategic aims, whereas we're on a 4-year cycle. There's no true long-term vision among our culture.

When Newsom pulled the plug on high-speed rail, I saw a quote from the original project manager from over a decade ago (he was Dutch, IIRC) and he said something along the lines of, "It makes perfect sense to start the project in the Valley IF there is the political will to get this done in the long term. Americans have a very short-sighted view, Europeans look out to the middle-term, and Asians truly look at the long-term." It all has to do with expectations - we are in the "now" and they're willing to wait everyone out.

[SteveS]

China has studied our military since Korea. Not a lot of victories for the U.S. military.

[soulezoo]

I dunno, Japan was doing okay until they decided to invade SE Asia and bomb Pearl Harbor. China is all about soft-power projection. "Buying" Africa fits perfectly within their plan. I don't see them as having any desire for a conventional conflict with the U.S. - they stand to lose way too much. China's "memory" is thousands of years. They aren't in a hurry to invade Taiwan - odds are that if they wait long enough, they'll have Taiwan back without any real struggle. That's the problem with our view of China as an adversary, they're willing to wait much longer to achieve true strategic aims, whereas we're on a 4-year cycle. There's no true long-term vision among our culture.

When Newsom pulled the plug on high-speed rail, I saw a quote from the original project manager from over a decade ago (he was Dutch, IIRC) and he said something along the lines of, "It makes perfect sense to start the project in the Valley IF there is the political will to get this done in the long term. Americans have a very short-sighted view, Europeans look out to the middle-term, and Asians truly look at the long-term." It all has to do with expectations - we are in the "now" and they're willing to wait everyone out.

Clue: they have NOT pulled the plug on high speed rail in CA, I don't care what you heard. Newsom made that announcement, then affirmed that he still wants to build 2/3'DS of it now and finish it later. The finish later is spoken behind closed doors. A gal I went to high school with and am still close to is Chief Deputy Director and acting CEO of high speed rail.

[sundance435]

China has studied our military since Korea. Not a lot of victories for the U.S. military.

Ummm...I think the First Gulf War was a pretty big eye-opener for lots of folks, the Chinese included.