View Full Version : Did Iran shoot down a airliner?
My money is yes, by mistake.
"Iran Refuses to Hand over Black Boxes from Crashed Ukrainian Passenger Jet"
https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/01/08/iran-refuses-to-hand-over-black-boxes-from-crashed-ukrainian-passenger-jet/
They also say pilot was not talking to control tower before crash.
Averageman
01-08-20, 10:30
I would imagine in the confusion of yesterday evening that is exactly what happened.
SomeOtherGuy
01-08-20, 10:34
It sure is looking like it, but too early to be sure.
So far it looks like Iran has managed to kill ~120 of their own citizens plus a similar number of non-US foreigners in thrashing about after Soleimani's death.
It's suspicious that they won't hand over the black boxes. OTOH, it's not like the Eastern European countries have a particularly impressive aviation safety record.
It was on fire going down. Could be a Russian made BUK SA-11 Gadfly or SA-17 Grizzly which uses a shrapnel filled warhead that detonates close to the target. Lots of fire because the aircraft was fully fueled for a longer flight. Maybe Iranian Air Defense folks were on edge expecting some kind of US attack and shot it down by mistake?
Diamondback
01-08-20, 10:56
Redstate coverage: https://www.redstate.com/brandon_morse/2020/01/08/iran-refuses-to-give-black-box-of-downed-jetliner-to-boeing/
Well.... At least this time is wasnt the USS Vincennes.
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Grand58742
01-08-20, 11:08
I think what's really suspicious is from the BB article:
Iranian investigators said the pilot of the plane was unable to communicate with Tehran air traffic controllers in the final minutes before the crash, but they did not explain why not. On Wednesday morning, Iran’s civil aviation authority refused to give the black boxes to Boeing, which would normally analyze the data, or to any American agency.
The pilots in here can correct me, but shouldn't one of the first things an aircrew does is radio in an inflight emergency to alert emergency responders?
Seems real fishy.
FromMyColdDeadHand
01-08-20, 11:09
True or not, we need to be pushing that narrative on “Veilbook” in Iran and the ME to make them look incompetent.
ETA:
Sorry, didn't realize it was a Boeing plane... 50:50 on the plane or Iranians causing it.
just a scout
01-08-20, 11:47
I’m betting it’s a plane that should’ve been grounded and they kept flying it till it broke catastrophically. Unfortunately that happened during takeoff.
Not everything needs to be enemy action. Murphy does have a vote too.
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The pilots in here can correct me, but shouldn't one of the first things an aircrew does is radio in an inflight emergency to alert emergency responders?
.
Been an airline pilot for over 20 years now.
We use the phrase: Aviate, navigate, communicate.
Your first priority is to keep the plane flying. In a really bad emergency where defecation is splattering through the ventilation system, talking on the radio is the absolute LAST priority.
I will not speculate on the cause,but I can promise you there is no way you’re going to catch me flying through that area anytime.
SomeOtherGuy
01-08-20, 11:58
ETA:
Sorry, didn't realize it was a Boeing plane... 50:50 on the plane or Iranians causing it.
I’m betting it’s a plane that should’ve been grounded and they kept flying it till it broke catastrophically. Unfortunately that happened during takeoff.
Not everything needs to be enemy action. Murphy does have a vote too.
It was a 737-800 delivered new in 2016:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-refuses-hand-over-crash-data-stoking-speculation-plane-was-accidentally-shot-down
Airline claims it just had recent maintenance. I'm skeptical of Ukraine and third-world airlines but it's a fairly new Boeing, NOT a MAX (with the known safety problem of the MAX), and it was on fire before it crashed. With everything going on the shoot-down idea seems most plausible.
It was a 737-800 delivered new in 2016:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-refuses-hand-over-crash-data-stoking-speculation-plane-was-accidentally-shot-down
Airline claims it just had recent maintenance. I'm skeptical of Ukraine and third-world airlines but it's a fairly new Boeing, NOT a MAX (with the known safety problem of the MAX), and it was on fire before it crashed. With everything going on the shoot-down idea seems most plausible.
The 737 has a good safety record, the MAX notwithstanding. But even the 737 MAX safety record has nothing to do with engines catching fire in flight.
Grand58742
01-08-20, 12:06
Been an airline pilot for over 20 years now.
We use the phrase: Aviate, navigate, communicate.
Your first priority is to keep the plane flying. In a really bad emergency where defecation is splattering through the ventilation system, talking on the radio is the absolute LAST priority.
I will not speculate on the cause,but I can promise you there is no way you’re going to catch me flying through that area anytime.
Thank you.
I was just thinking (if that video is correct) setting the transponder to squawk 7700 would have been done as a first part of any emergency procedure, even with aviating being the first priority. A good 30 seconds (a lifetime I'd imagine) go between where the video starts and the alleged impact.
My theory (speculation) is if the crew was incapacitated for some reason, such a radio call or distress beacon couldn't have been set.
Speculating...
Been an airline pilot for over 20 years now.
We use the phrase: Aviate, navigate, communicate.
Your first priority is to keep the plane flying. In a really bad emergency where defecation is splattering through the ventilation system, talking on the radio is the absolute LAST priority.
I will not speculate on the cause,but I can promise you there is no way you’re going to catch me flying through that area anytime.
My daughter in law is an Air Force Officer who flies the C-17 Globemaster 3. She plans to do her 20 years, retire, then transition to commercial airline. My eldest son was speaking with her this morning and the fact the aircraft was seen to be on fire while airborne indicates a catastrophic failure and/or strike with another airborne object(s). A missile hit would also be in that area of possibility.
Thank you.
I was just thinking (if that video is correct) setting the transponder to squawk 7700 would have been done as a first part of any emergency procedure, even with aviating being the first priority.
Speculating...
7700 is basically the last item on any emergency checklist. It’s literally one of the last things you do.
I’m not saying the plane wasn’t blown up. I’m not saying it was either. I’ve got my theory, but being in the industry I tend to keep my cards close to my chest until the evidence is out.
The most recent example of a shoot down is the Malaysian airlines 777 that was shot down over Ukraine a couple years ago. If you want to see what a Russian buck missile will do to an airliner, look up that one.
My daughter in law is an Air Force Officer who flies the C-17 Globemaster 3. She plans to do her 20 years, retire, then transition to commercial airline. My eldest son was speaking with her this morning and the fact the aircraft was seen to be on fire while airborne indicates a catastrophic failure and/or strike with another airborne object(s). A missile hit would also be in that area of possibility.
Thanks, again, to both of you. Walking is for cavemen.
Grand58742
01-08-20, 12:37
7700 is basically the last item on any emergency checklist. It’s literally one of the last things you do.
I’m not saying the plane wasn’t blown up. I’m not saying it was either. I’ve got my theory, but being in the industry I tend to keep my cards close to my chest until the evidence is out.
The most recent example of a shoot down is the Malaysian airlines 777 that was shot down over Ukraine a couple years ago. If you want to see what a Russian buck missile will do to an airliner, look up that one.
Thank you again.
OK. They’re finally starting to show some decent resolution pictures of the crash site. Not ready to make the call, but there is a lot of similarities between this crash, and the shoot down of Malaysian airlines 777 over Ukraine.
Of course they are not going to turn the black boxes over to Boeing. That would be the Americans. They may cooperate with the European transportation safety Board.
If you guys have time, watch the air disasters program on the shoot down of the Malaysian airliner. It’s amazing how they were able to determine it was a missile strike. Of course once they were granted access to the crash strike they found shrapnel damage from where the missile actually exploded near the aircraft. If you look at the pictures on the news sites today, you can see things that may or may not be shrapnel holes in the side of the airplane.
Remember, an explosive device inside the plane walker similar damage. That darn sure doesn’t look like something that happened after the plane hit the ground though.
If I ran keeps everyone out including the Europeans, then we all know what happened. If they let the Europeans in, yet key pieces of the airplane come up missing, then we know what happened. One way or another, the truth is going to come out here.
They also say pilot was not talking to control tower before crash.
Not uncommon - Aviate, Navigate, Communicate.
It was on fire going down. Could be a Russian made BUK SA-11 Gadfly or SA-17 Grizzly which uses a shrapnel filled warhead that detonates close to the target. Lots of fire because the aircraft was fully fueled for a longer flight. Maybe Iranian Air Defense folks were on edge expecting some kind of US attack and shot it down by mistake?
Photos purported to be SA-15 SAM fragments (tail motor) found at Tehran wreckage site are circulating the internets.
Photos purported to be SA-15 SAM fragments (tail motor) found at Tehran wreckage site are circulating the internets.
Just another in the BUK system of shrapnel warhead missiles. Makes sense. Someone screwed up in the Iranian military.
Although Iran controls any access or information about this because it occurred inside Iran (and the truth may never be known) if it ever does come to light that they accidentally shot it down they will simply say "Well the U.S. shot down one of our airliners in 1988 during hostile times so shit happens". (that would be the USS Vincennes screw-up)
Although Iran controls any access or information about this because it occurred inside Iran (and the truth may never be known) if it ever does come to light that they accidentally shot it down they will simply say "Well the U.S. shot down one of our airliners in 1988 during hostile times so shit happens". (that would be the USS Vincennes screw-up)
And the ComDems will blame President Trump because "Iran was just protecting themselves from th warmongering U.S. since their beloved war hero was assassinated".
Grand58742
01-09-20, 11:44
Rumblings within our government. Maybe they were giving Iran a chance to come clean?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/09/politics/is-iran-ukraine-plane/index.html
The US increasingly believes that Iran mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian airliner on Wednesday, according to multiple US officials. The working theory is based on continuing analysis of data from satellites, radar and electronic data collected routinely by US military and intelligence.
President Donald Trump on Thursday said he suspected the crash was not due to mechanical issues, indicating that "somebody could have made a mistake on the other side."
Asked during a White House event what he thought happened to the plane, Trump said, "Well, I have my suspicions."
Evidence narrow down it was Iran. Iran will deny it, some will blame it on Trump (of course) and some will go into conspiracy mode the US did it to frame Iran:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51055219?fbclid=IwAR2DKS5DSTsZGqRBInVp8xENz_LnIZMLZgUeCItSRGKz3yb6qhljrjDEJ_o
Dr. Bullseye
01-09-20, 12:19
Go to the 0:18 second mark. You can see what they are saying is the aircraft in question and then you see a second tiny light heading for that aircraft and an explosion. You tell me what happened.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_iizkgIOfU
Grand58742
01-09-20, 13:26
Iran yesterday: "No Boeing and the Great Satan! You cannot have the black box!"
Iran today: "We, uh, might need help reading this..."
shadowrider
01-09-20, 13:43
There is no question in my mind that Iran is behind this plane going down. Hell, they declared it mechanical failure while the wreckage was still smoking. Literally! Then they are locking down the FDRs? It ain't rocket science. Iran's aviation crash forensics ain't that good. It's pretty plain to see.
They probably thought it was an American plane.
Video purports to show missile hitting Ukrainian plane - pretty clear video of the hit!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7870409/Video-appears-surface-air-missile-hitting-Ukrainian-plane-moments-crashed.html
FromMyColdDeadHand
01-09-20, 14:30
Have CrowdStrike look at the black boxes....
Video purports to show missile hitting Ukrainian plane - pretty clear video of the hit!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7870409/Video-appears-surface-air-missile-hitting-Ukrainian-plane-moments-crashed.html
I saw that same video. Seems pretty clear that it was a fast moving SAM, like an SA-15 going mach 2+, that impacted the jet.
Pentagon, Iraqi officials tell Newsweek, CBS: Iran shot down the Ukraine flight
https://hotair.com/archives/ed-morrissey/2020/01/09/breaking-pentagon-iraqi-officials-tell-newsweek-iran-shot-ukraine-flight/
Even Canada is on to them.
https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2020/01/09/trudeau-evidence-shows-iranian-missile-downed-ukraine-plane/
Were the 63 Canadians on that plane mostly actually CIA? A la 'Canadian Caper' and rescue fo a few hostages in Iran in 1980. The film "Argo" is about this. There is a precedent for American CIA to get real Canadian passports to goto Iran.
Whiskey_Bravo
01-09-20, 16:01
Were the 63 Canadians on that plane mostly actually CIA? A la 'Canadian Caper' and rescue fo a few hostages in Iran in 1980. The film "Argo" is about this. There is a precedent for American CIA to get real Canadian passports to goto Iran.
I am thinking the Canadians on board were probably of Iranian decent in one form or another given the first picture in these articles.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/09/iran-plane-crash-canada-victims-trudeau-investigation
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2020/01/09/world-continues-to-mourn-those-lost-in-iranian-plane-crash-as-investigators-continue-to-determine-the-cause.html
Wonder if some Iranian SAM battery commander has been relieved of his duties? "You eediot!"
Like I said earlier, if Iran finally fesses up they will simply point at the Vincennes incident and say "See, the Great Satan did it too!" Forget that they were totally different circumstances.....:rolleyes:
Whiskey_Bravo
01-09-20, 16:06
Wonder if some Iranian SAM battery commander has been relieved of his duties? "You eediot!"
Assuming that guy and his commander are probably not enjoying life right now.
Wouldn’t a bomber be coming towards your country?
Wouldn’t an airline or friendly aircraft be flying out of your country?
This to me seems very obvious. The level of incompetence involved in accidentally shooting down an airliner is breathtaking.
Seems like the Iranians death to America war is off to a great start. First that devastating missile attack that didn’t hit anything and the shock and awe affect of shooting down a civilian airliner.
Seems like the Iranians death to America war is off to a great start. First that devastating missile attack that didn’t hit anything and the shock and awe affect of shooting down a civilian airliner.
Well, the ComDems just told Iran to carry on because we won't retaliate.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-passes-war-powers-resolution-in-rebuke-of-trumps-actions-against-iran
Grand58742
01-09-20, 18:31
At this point, I think Iran has realized they can't back stupid any longer. They invited the NTSB and Boeing into the investigation.
I'd expect an announcement within a day or so about some poor low level sod getting trigger happy and firing without authorization.
They know. We know. They know we know at this point. There is no reason to continue the charade.
Gunnar da Wolf
01-09-20, 18:54
Probably some under trained, scared young fellow who knew that Mother Iran had just lobbed a bunch of missiles at The Great Satan. He’s just sitting there at a launch panel wondering if he was going to die by stealth bomber, cruise missile, or BRRrrrrrrrtttttttt!!! on his third 16 hour shift in a row. A blip appears on his screen and he twitched.
just a scout
01-09-20, 18:56
I want to know which spook, scientist or defector was on that plane.
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I want to know which spook, scientist or defector was on that plane.
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Could have been the dude that provided the whereabouts intel on that soleimani prick.
Probably some under trained, scared young fellow who knew that Mother Iran had just lobbed a bunch of missiles at The Great Satan. He’s just sitting there at a launch panel wondering if he was going to die by stealth bomber, cruise missile, or BRRrrrrrrrtttttttt!!! on his third 16 hour shift in a row. A blip appears on his screen and he twitched.
And I'm sure him and his chain of command have been relieved of that command, and are sitting in some Persian dungeon, where they will never get to speak about the incident ever again.
Diamondback
01-09-20, 19:55
...where they will never get to speak about the incident ever again.
Or much of anything else other than screaming in agony, for that matter. Not that I have much pity to spare.
PatrioticDisorder
01-09-20, 20:23
Perhaps it wasn’t an “accident” at all, is Iranian military leadership so incompetent they wouldn’t order flights grounded shortly after lobbing missiles at a US base in Iraq? Maybe Iranian leadership wanted someone dead on the plane and wanted to do it discreetly. Perfect opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.
Averageman
01-09-20, 20:26
I've always thought the only thing they had truly mastered was the terror cheap shot and an odd sort of animal husbandry.
I've always thought the only thing they had truly mastered was the terror cheap shot and an odd sort of animal husbandry.
And they are considered one of the few advanced cultures in that locale....If they're advanced, what does it does say about the rest?
Perhaps it wasn’t an “accident” at all, is Iranian military leadership so incompetent they wouldn’t order flights grounded shortly after lobbing missiles at a US base in Iraq? Maybe Iranian leadership wanted someone dead on the plane and wanted to do it discreetly. Perfect opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.
Nothing really discrete about downing an airliner soooo
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FromMyColdDeadHand
01-09-20, 23:04
Perhaps it wasn’t an “accident” at all, is Iranian military leadership so incompetent they wouldn’t order flights grounded shortly after lobbing missiles at a US base in Iraq? Maybe Iranian leadership wanted someone dead on the plane and wanted to do it discreetly. Perfect opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.
You mean the guys holding American's hostage as we speak? Who killed (and kill) Americans at seeming will for 40 years? Who killed hundreds of their own in the last month? Just take the person out and shoot them in the head. No need for a Ron Brown here...
Grand58742
01-10-20, 07:29
You mean the guys holding American's hostage as we speak? Who killed (and kill) Americans at seeming will for 40 years? Who killed hundreds of their own in the last month? Just take the person out and shoot them in the head. No need for a Ron Brown here...
Are you talking about Democrats or Iranians?
It's sad that people in the U.S. government are blaming this on the United States while hiding behind "Orange Man Bad". Traitors to our nation and I wake up every day hoping to see one perp walked into a waiting patrol car.
It's a horrific event which I am sure it was unintentional, but Iran owns this.
Andy
Wonder if some Iranian SAM battery commander has been relieved of his duties? "You eediot!"
Like I said earlier, if Iran finally fesses up they will simply point at the Vincennes incident and say "See, the Great Satan did it too!" Forget that they were totally different circumstances.....:rolleyes:
One thing they might have in common is alternative facts.
After the Vicennes incident, the Reagan Administration lied and said the plane was outside the civilian corridor. Later the U.S. came clean.
One thing they might have in common is alternative facts.
After the Vicennes incident, the Reagan Administration lied and said the plane was outside the civilian corridor. Later the U.S. came clean.
I was part of Operation Earnest Will, but I was moved to another operation in Africa and missed the USS Vincennes incident. I had heard that the US ship tried calling frantically on different frequencies to contact the Iranian aircraft which was squawking a military code. No response and two missiles were launched.
One thing they might have in common is alternative facts.
After the Vicennes incident, the Reagan Administration lied and said the plane was outside the civilian corridor. Later the U.S. came clean.
Not sure of the flight pattern of the Ukrainian jet, but in the Vincennes incident the aircraft didn't respond to verification calls. It also was coming right at the Vincennes. There had just been a running shoot-'em-up by the Vincennes with Iranian gunboats that morning, and Operation Praying Mantis was only two months before. To boot, the Aegis system used on the Vincennes was relatively new and apparently mislabeled the Iranian flight. I would not for a heartbeat put it past Iran to sacrifice some of their own people to make us look bad. Not for a minute. It was a cluster to be sure, but the Vincennes did what it felt it had to do unfortunately.
I think the biggest difference is that the Ukrainian jet had just taken off from the airport only a few miles away, and was headed in a westerly direction (attack planes would have been coming eastward). This was well inside Iran, not in a hotly contested area like the Vincennes incident. No, the bonehead Iranian CO of that SAM battery f****d up by ordering a missile to be fired.
Called it, post #24. Although, really, Stevie Wonder could have seen this coming.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dems-rush-to-implicate-trump-for-plane-crash-linked-to-iran-missile-strike
Iran is now admitting they shot it down.
Iran admits it ‘unintentionally’ shot down Ukrainian jetliner, according to state TV
https://www.foxnews.com/world/iran-admits-it-unintentionally-shot-down-ukrainian-jetliner-according-to-state-tv
Grand58742
01-11-20, 07:26
Iran is now admitting they shot it down.
Iran admits it ‘unintentionally’ shot down Ukrainian jetliner, according to state TV
https://www.foxnews.com/world/iran-admits-it-unintentionally-shot-down-ukrainian-jetliner-according-to-state-tv
Nailed it. And of course, it's the Great Satan's fault it happened.
Good on them. Best to own it, then use it to occasionally make jabs at Trump over it. Dems are already doing that, so why not tag along?
'Death to liars!' Iranian protesters in Tehran turn against regime and demand the Ayatollah RESIGN after country's military admits it shot down passenger plane full of its own citizens
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7876363/Iranian-protesters-Tehran-turn-against-regime-military-admits-shooting-plane.html
IRANIAN PROTESTERS DEMAND KHAMENEI QUITS OVER PLANE DOWNING
https://m.jpost.com/Middle-East/Iran-News/Iranian-protesters-demand-Khamenei-quits-over-plane-downing-613857
Iran's handling of plane disaster sparks new challenge to rulers
http://news.trust.org/item/20200111165001-pawh6
vicious_cb
01-11-20, 13:58
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kzaim_XDEsA
Justin Trudeau apologizes live to Iran after Iran admits to shooting down airliner.
Also when Japan, who literally has a constitutional clause to not engage in any offensive action, responds with more force than you. That beard isnt fooling anyone Trudeau, you are still a pussy.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EMw2QQ0UYAE37EQ.jpg:large
https://twitter.com/ModJapan_en/status/1215546282493673472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1215546282493673472&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnavaltoday.com%2F2020%2F01%2F10%2Fjapan-to-send-destroyer-aircraft-to-middle-east%2F
They mistakenly identified a passenger jetliner, which was taking off and in close proximity to an airport as hostile?
Sure.
They mistakenly identified a passenger jetliner, which was taking off and in close proximity to an airport as hostile?
Sure.
Yeah... and let’s not forget this is the same bunch who lobbed over two dozen rockets at two relatively huge military bases and didn’t kill anyone...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kzaim_XDEsA
Justin Trudeau apologizes live to Iran after Iran admits to shooting down airliner.
Also when Japan, who literally has a constitutional clause to not engage in any offensive action, responds with more force than you. That beard isnt fooling anyone Trudeau, you are still a pussy.
Yes, but harder to get into black face with the beard, so that's a step in the right direction for that low T hypocritical leftist socialist.
Yeah... and let’s not forget this is the same bunch who lobbed over two dozen rockets at two relatively huge military bases and didn’t kill anyone...
I think that was totally intentional. In Iran, they claimed 80+ US soldiers killed, and making their own people think they paid back the Great Satan to hold onto power, without getting annihilated by the US response, was the goal. They had no real interest in causing US causalities and it was the smart move on their side to play it exactly as they did.
Canada is confusing. During the Obama years they were and I think still are sending advisors to Ukraine in what is a protracted border dispute but Iran destroys a commercial Jetliner and they apologize to them?
Curious and confusing.
You know. I like these little moments.
They are a window into who is really doing what.
ETA per Japan, I fully expect them to reclaim a standing army within our lifetime. I’m losing confidence in the progress of North Korea and the Red Chinese have been getting mighty froggy.
I dare say resurrecting SEATO would be smarter than wasting time on NATO which tends to benefit Western and Central Europe more than the US.
morbidbattlecry
01-11-20, 16:24
When leaders play stupid games, your average person gets the prizes. In this case, a pointless death for all those people.
Off Topic, but yes, they still are. I spent 6 months with them in 2017 and I have to say, they are truly some of the nicest people I've ever met. Also, quite competent as Soldiers.
Canada is confusing. During the Obama years they were and I think still are sending advisors to Ukraine in what is a protracted border dispute but Iran destroys a commercial Jetliner and they apologize to them.
When leaders play stupid games, your average person gets the prizes. In this case, a pointless death for all those people.
All which people?
All which people?The Canucks.
The Canucks.
I'm having difficulty believing that was an accident myself. What the motive was, not sure, but just what did they think they were shooting at? Maybe someone on the plane they wanted taken out? I don't know how sophisticated their capabilities are, but what would they mistake a slow moving passenger jet for? Of course we can't believe anything the Iranian's will report as the reason for the plane being taken down, but it sucks to be sure.
I'm having difficulty believing that was an accident myself. What the motive was, not sure, but just what did they think they were shooting at? Maybe someone on the plane they wanted taken out? I don't know how sophisticated their capabilities are, but what would they mistake a slow moving passenger jet for? Of course we can't believe anything the Iranian's will report as the reason for the plane being taken down, but it sucks to be sure.
Will, I respectfully have to disagree. I don't think they did it on purpose, as much as I despise Iran and the mullahs. I think it is a reflection on the incompetency and overinflated capabilities of the Iranian military. As much as they talk shit (and have for 40+ years) when faced with someone who would actually smoke them they shot missiles that fortunately didn't kill anyone and panicked by shooting down a commercial airliner full of people. Are they a "Paper Tiger"? Maybe not that bad but they ain't what they crack themselves up to be (or others crack them up to be either).
Iran is highly overrated.
vicious_cb
01-11-20, 19:14
I'm having difficulty believing that was an accident myself. What the motive was, not sure, but just what did they think they were shooting at? Maybe someone on the plane they wanted taken out? I don't know how sophisticated their capabilities are, but what would they mistake a slow moving passenger jet for? Of course we can't believe anything the Iranian's will report as the reason for the plane being taken down, but it sucks to be sure.
That doesnt make sense, this in no way benefits Iran at all. In fact it did just the opposite, international condemnation, even from their allies and internal unrest from their own population.
That doesnt make sense, this in no way benefits Iran at all. In fact it did just the opposite, international condemnation, even from their allies and internal unrest from their own population.
Assuming it was not an accident, which for the record I think it was, I’d say they were hoping to blame it on us or someone else.
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They mistakenly identified a passenger jetliner, which was taking off and in close proximity to an airport as hostile?
.
A Traffic cop using police radar could have told you it was not an inbound threat.
vicious_cb
01-11-20, 19:48
Assuming it was not an accident, which for the record I think it was, I’d say they were hoping to blame it on us or someone else.
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That would be a stretch for anyone (except our own leftist media with their Trump derangement syndrome) to believe. In fact the only one who benefits is the US. We no longer look like the belligerents after killing Sulimani vs shooting down an airliner full of civilians. The islamo-fascist Imams are being criticized for killing their own people and being caught in their lie after there was literally a video of surface to air missile striking the airliner. Really the only person who wins is Trump. And what do people think we sent a CIA team to hijack an Iranian air defense battery to shoot down a civilian airliner?
This more of a case for the Trump curse being real than anything else. Any time someone tries to do something to make Trump look bad it backfires in spectacular fashion.
That would be a stretch for anyone (except our own leftist media with their Trump derangement syndrome) to believe. In fact the only one who benefits is the US. We no longer look like the belligerents after killing Sulimani vs shooting down an airliner full of civilians. The islamo-fascist Imams are being criticized for killing their own people and being caught in their lie after there was literally a video of surface to air missile striking the airliner. Really the only person who wins is Trump. And what do people think we sent a CIA team to hijack an Iranian air defense battery to shoot down a civilian airliner?
This more of a case for the Trump curse being real than anything else. Any time someone tries to do something to make Trump look bad it backfires in spectacular fashion.
Some people do, yes. [emoji2373]
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Grand58742
01-11-20, 21:10
Really the only person who wins is Trump. And what do people think we sent a CIA team to hijack an Iranian air defense battery to shoot down a civilian airliner?
Don't give the House Intel Committee any ideas. You know they're looking for their next investigation reason.
Will, I respectfully have to disagree. I don't think they did it on purpose, as much as I despise Iran and the mullahs. I think it is a reflection on the incompetency and overinflated capabilities of the Iranian military. As much as they talk shit (and have for 40+ years) when faced with someone who would actually smoke them they shot missiles that fortunately didn't kill anyone and panicked by shooting down a commercial airliner full of people. Are they a "Paper Tiger"? Maybe not that bad but they ain't what they crack themselves up to be (or others crack them up to be either).
Iran is highly overrated.
I think that it was probably someone who was afraid to do nothing - kind of damned if you do and damned if you don't thing - the kind of mindset that authoritarians who blame everything on underlings inspire.
Business_Casual
01-12-20, 06:47
We now know they did shoot it down. What does this mean?
We killed the Iraqi militia leader along side Soleimani as a message we are no longer going to tolerate proxy warriors in the region. Was the hit on the Ukrainian airliner, with a Ukrainian president a Trump ally, a similar gesture?
Will, I respectfully have to disagree. I don't think they did it on purpose, as much as I despise Iran and the mullahs. I think it is a reflection on the incompetency and overinflated capabilities of the Iranian military. As much as they talk shit (and have for 40+ years) when faced with someone who would actually smoke them they shot missiles that fortunately didn't kill anyone and panicked by shooting down a commercial airliner full of people. Are they a "Paper Tiger"? Maybe not that bad but they ain't what they crack themselves up to be (or others crack them up to be either).
Iran is highly overrated.
You could be right of course, but while I don't know their capabilities to comment with certainty, it does not pass the smell test for me and:
A Traffic cop using police radar could have told you it was not an inbound threat.
FromMyColdDeadHand
01-12-20, 14:33
Interesting to watch all the machinations by the MSM on the Sunday talk shows to try to make this out to be a bad week for Trump.
Bad week to be Iranian, not a bad week to be a Trump. If this is Trump failing, a few more cycles of Trump failing and the Iranians are done for.
Averageman
01-12-20, 16:06
A few more cycles of Trump losing in Iran and there won't be a lamp post without a Mullah pinata.
I am sure 100% it was done with orders from the top. In a police State, nobody would take such action without the orders being given from on high.
For to do it without political top cover, would mean a brutal end for everyone involved and their extended families.
If you don't think things are getting ready to change in a big way, then watch the video .
https://youtu.be/25X6HakvDmQ
This never would have happened 6 months ago.
I am sure 100% it was done with orders from the top. In a police State, nobody would take such action without the orders being given from on high.
For to do it without political top cover, would mean a brutal end for everyone involved and their extended families.
Unfortunately the scapegoats they pick to be the fall guys will suffer the same fate I assume.
FromMyColdDeadHand
01-12-20, 17:48
We now know they did shoot it down. What does this mean?
We killed the Iraqi militia leader along side Soleimani as a message we are no longer going to tolerate proxy warriors in the region. Was the hit on the Ukrainian airliner, with a Ukrainian president a Trump ally, a similar gesture?
I’d go with Occam’s Razor and blame the operator, but I’d like to know more about the actual mechanics of launching a middle at a airplane traveling at that speed and altitude, Squaw king codes and flashing navigation lights... Unless they are runny all their comms on cables, I’m sure the NSA will eventually get vox messages back and forth, if any.
Problem is, if the true struggle in Iran is between the religious crazies and the less crazy military, this probably hurts the less evil mil faction, unless they can get the mullah’ s fingerprints on it.
If you don't think things are getting ready to change in a big way, then watch the video .
https://youtu.be/25X6HakvDmQ
This never would have happened 6 months ago.
There is nothing we, as a country who is the "arch enemy" of Iran, could hope for more than an internal overthrow of the mullahs. Win-win, no doubt about it. I truly hope this continues.
First and foremost I am glad no U.S. military personnel were killed or injured in that abortive missile attack. Trump would no doubt have responded violently (and I would have supported that decision 110%) and it would have been embarrassing for Iran when they had their shit pushed in. That prevented a "rally around the flag" nationalistic feeling in Iran. Now the mullahs have to deal with the population bucking their authority over indignation with the Ukrainian shoot down.
I still say maybe a few AK's, PKM's, and RPG's sneaked in courtesy of the CIA might help nudge the "revolution" forward. Trump's choice of words regarding the Iranian people was wise. This isn't 2009 and Obama isn't in the White House. I think they know that.
FromMyColdDeadHand
01-12-20, 21:02
There is nothing we, as a country who is the "arch enemy" of Iran, could hope for more than an internal overthrow of the mullahs. Win-win, no doubt about it. I truly hope this continues.
First and foremost I am glad no U.S. military personnel were killed or injured in that abortive missile attack. Trump would no doubt have responded violently (and I would have supported that decision 110%) and it would have been embarrassing for Iran when they had their shit pushed in. That prevented a "rally around the flag" nationalistic feeling in Iran. Now the mullahs have to deal with the population bucking their authority over indignation with the Ukrainian shoot down.
I still say maybe a few AK's, PKM's, and RPG's sneaked in courtesy of the CIA might help nudge the "revolution" forward. Trump's choice of words regarding the Iranian people was wise. This isn't 2009 and Obama isn't in the White House. I think they know that.
Money and control for the mil to kill the mullahs. No need for arms, just an plan for afterwards. A model for the Norks too. Kill the king and have riches and power beyond your dreams.
The radar cross section of a Boeing 737 has to be the same of a MQ-1 Predator if one is to believe this accidental shit.
A single 737 is a woefully small strike package.
If this is a demonstration of the capability of the Iranian military...yikes.
What in the world did these dipshits see that made them think, "hostile aircraft." I mean it defies all logic. I think we have been marching towards war with Iran for a long time. This even I don't think will be the trigger, but its going that way.
Business_Casual
01-13-20, 06:34
This thread, I started about five years ago, predicts the war:
https://www.m4carbine.net/showthread.php?173312-End-Game-II-War-with-Iran-Looms&highlight=
Deep State indeed.
That would be a stretch for anyone (except our own leftist media with their Trump derangement syndrome) to believe. In fact the only one who benefits is the US. We no longer look like the belligerents after killing Sulimani vs shooting down an airliner full of civilians. The islamo-fascist Imams are being criticized for killing their own people and being caught in their lie after there was literally a video of surface to air missile striking the airliner. Really the only person who wins is Trump. And what do people think we sent a CIA team to hijack an Iranian air defense battery to shoot down a civilian airliner?
This more of a case for the Trump curse being real than anything else. Any time someone tries to do something to make Trump look bad it backfires in spectacular fashion.
FWIW, I agree with ABNAK, this was an accidental shoot-down. They were never going to admit it, until irrefutable video evidence went clear.
We now know they did shoot it down. What does this mean?
We killed the Iraqi militia leader along side Soleimani as a message we are no longer going to tolerate proxy warriors in the region. Was the hit on the Ukrainian airliner, with a Ukrainian president a Trump ally, a similar gesture?
That depends on Ukraine, because it was their aircraft. We can't and really shouldn't retaliate on Ukraine's behalf.
Of course the Canadians will just apologize to Iran for their citizens getting in the way, and that will be the end of it. Trudeau is as feckless as they come.
I am sure 100% it was done with orders from the top. In a police State, nobody would take such action without the orders being given from on high.
For to do it without political top cover, would mean a brutal end for everyone involved and their extended families.
Occam's Razor would suggest incompetence over a top level plot to shoot down a foreign flagged carrier with no US connection at all.
The radar cross section of a Boeing 737 has to be the same of a MQ-1 Predator if one is to believe this accidental shit.
A single 737 is a woefully small strike package.
If this is a demonstration of the capability of the Iranian military...yikes.
What in the world did these dipshits see that made them think, "hostile aircraft." I mean it defies all logic. I think we have been marching towards war with Iran for a long time. This even I don't think will be the trigger, but its going that way.
It wouldn't necessarily need to look like a .mil A/C at all if you ascribe incompetence. How often do their SAM batteries go on full alert? How tense were they about becoming the next example of U.S. Air Force surgical strike capability? If they truly believed the balloon was going up and they were about to die, they might just be nervous enough to soot at anything?
FWIW, I agree with ABNAK, this was an accidental shoot-down. They were never going to admit it, until irrefutable video evidence went clear.
When did those derka derks ever care about irrefutable evidence doh?
Your fall guys for the "mistaken" shoot down:
Iran on Tuesday announced it made arrests of "some individuals" in connection with its Revolutionary Guard Corp's downing of a Ukrainian passenger plane that killed all 176 aboard.
A spokesman for Iran's judicial system, Gholamhossein Esmaili, said the arrests took place after extensive investigations, state media reported. Esmaili gave no further details.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/01/14/ukraine-flight-752-iran-arrests/4463605002/
Your fall guys for the "mistaken" shoot down:
Iran on Tuesday announced it made arrests of "some individuals" in connection with its Revolutionary Guard Corp's downing of a Ukrainian passenger plane that killed all 176 aboard.
A spokesman for Iran's judicial system, Gholamhossein Esmaili, said the arrests took place after extensive investigations, state media reported. Esmaili gave no further details.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/01/14/ukraine-flight-752-iran-arrests/4463605002/
LOL, you think the mullah's henchmen won't kill their own men for a mistake? They will in a heartbeat if it gets rid of an embarrassment.
LOL, you think the mullah's henchmen won't kill their own men for a mistake? They will in a heartbeat if it gets rid of an embarrassment.
Hence the term "fall guys." There's not doubt they will do exactly that but I question that it was a mistake (hence the " " ) and agree with Yoni, the orders came from up high, hence fall guys who will it up the ....
FromMyColdDeadHand
01-14-20, 14:49
Your fall guys for the "mistaken" shoot down:
Iran on Tuesday announced it made arrests of "some individuals" in connection with its Revolutionary Guard Corp's downing of a Ukrainian passenger plane that killed all 176 aboard.
A spokesman for Iran's judicial system, Gholamhossein Esmaili, said the arrests took place after extensive investigations, state media reported. Esmaili gave no further details.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/01/14/ukraine-flight-752-iran-arrests/4463605002/
Waiting for Pelosi to add Trump as a co-conspirator.
My twitter lit up with some Canadian twit from "Maple Foods" going off on how the deaths of the passengers is Trumps fault... If bad things are going to happen, and they are, I'm rather it affected idiots like this than rational people.
F him, hell, I'll use honey on my waffles...
FromMyColdDeadHand
01-14-20, 14:49
Your fall guys for the "mistaken" shoot down:
Iran on Tuesday announced it made arrests of "some individuals" in connection with its Revolutionary Guard Corp's downing of a Ukrainian passenger plane that killed all 176 aboard.
A spokesman for Iran's judicial system, Gholamhossein Esmaili, said the arrests took place after extensive investigations, state media reported. Esmaili gave no further details.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/01/14/ukraine-flight-752-iran-arrests/4463605002/
Waiting for Pelosi to add Trump as a co-conspirator.
My twitter lit up with some Canadian twit from "Maple Foods" going off on how the deaths of the passengers is Trumps fault... If bad things are going to happen, and they are, I'm rather it affected idiots like this than rational people.
F him, hell, I'll use honey on my waffles...
Adrenaline_6
01-14-20, 15:01
Waiting for Pelosi to add Trump as a co-conspirator.
My twitter lit up with some Canadian twit from "Maple Foods" going off on how the deaths of the passengers is Trumps fault... If bad things are going to happen, and they are, I'm rather it affected idiots like this than rational people.
F him, hell, I'll use honey on my waffles...
No need...just get it from Vermont.:)
No need...just get it from Vermont.:)
Butter pecan syrup is superior to maple. Fight me! :D
Diamondback
01-14-20, 15:16
Waiting for Pelosi to add Trump as a co-conspirator.
My twitter lit up with some Canadian twit from "Maple Foods" going off on how the deaths of the passengers is Trumps fault... If bad things are going to happen, and they are, I'm rather it affected idiots like this than rational people.
F him, hell, I'll use honey on my waffles...
I'll bet the clown is either a Trudeau Koolaid Chugger from Quebec or an NDP (which if they had "truth in advertising" would really be called Canadian Communist Party) voter...
FromMyColdDeadHand
01-14-20, 15:20
I'll bet the clown is either a Trudeau Koolaid Chugger from Quebec or an NDP (which if they had "truth in advertising" would really be called Canadian Communist Party) voter...
I think his companies tag line is something like "world's largest organic carbon-neutral food company". Sounds tasty... was just asking the wife for that for dinner last night.
I think his companies tag line is something like "world's largest organic carbon-neutral food company". Sounds tasty... was just asking the wife for that for dinner last night.
Yeah, they sell vegan "meat" in the U.S.
Tasty... :bad:
Your fall guys for the "mistaken" shoot down:
Iran on Tuesday announced it made arrests of "some individuals" in connection with its Revolutionary Guard Corp's downing of a Ukrainian passenger plane that killed all 176 aboard.
A spokesman for Iran's judicial system, Gholamhossein Esmaili, said the arrests took place after extensive investigations, state media reported. Esmaili gave no further details.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/01/14/ukraine-flight-752-iran-arrests/4463605002/
I ain't buying the whole "extensive investigations" thing, I think it was more like "all right which one of you morons is missing a missile?".
I ain't buying the whole "extensive investigations" thing, I think it was more like "all right which one of you morons is missing a missile that we instructed you to fire at that plane?".
Fixed it for ya :cool:
Adrenaline_6
01-15-20, 07:49
Butter pecan syrup is superior to maple. Fight me! :D
Never tried it. Sounds interesting.
As far as fighting, I will take a rain check, I go in for surgery on a herniated L4-L5 disk on the 4th. Give me some time to rehab! :)
I ain't buying the whole "extensive investigations" thing, I think it was more like "all right which one of you morons is missing a missile?".
I know right. "Who's got an empty tube?" "Bingo!"
The WSJ just released info that the plane was shot with two missiles.
Hope the link works since it’s from my phone.
https://apple.news/AVwFvkVkMR8yJBC1m_VfpXw
The WSJ just released info that the plane was shot with two missiles.
Hope the link works since it’s from my phone.
https://apple.news/AVwFvkVkMR8yJBC1m_VfpXwThats probably pretty standard, missiles tend to be failure prone.
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Now Fox is reporting the person who filmed the missiles striking the plane has been arrested
https://apple.news/AO6vxkvAGSlGPTh4S9DYIbA
Now Fox is reporting the person who filmed the missiles striking the plane has been arrested
https://apple.news/AO6vxkvAGSlGPTh4S9DYIbA
Can't have the subjects embarrassing the government. :(
Never tried it. Sounds interesting.
As far as fighting, I will take a rain check, I go in for surgery on a herniated L4-L5 disk on the 4th. Give me some time to rehab! :)
I know right. "Who's got an empty tube?" "Bingo!"
I've literally felt your pain. Had L4-L5 surgery back in 2005. I hope yours goes as well as mine did, because I've been better since than the 10 years prior to it!
Adrenaline_6
01-16-20, 20:52
I've literally felt your pain. Had L4-L5 surgery back in 2005. I hope yours goes as well as mine did, because I've been better since than the 10 years prior to it!
Glad to hear. I had a previous discectomy due to a herniation on my L4-L5 in '98 and it was fine for awhile. Did anything I wanted with no real problems although I found that an inversion table helped every once in awhile.
The kicking from a Muay Thai/kickboxing striking class I was taking is what did me in. The violent twisting and rotation needed to generate power and the subsequent impact re-herniated it and now is beyond saving. I did my best to stay in shape even though I am north of 50 and it backfires. I always thought the JiuJitsu class the hour before was what was going to do me in since I already had years of experience in the striking background, That's the way the cookie crumbles I guess. Reboot...start over.
Glad to hear. I had a previous discectomy due to a herniation on my L4-L5 in '98 and it was fine for awhile. Did anything I wanted with no real problems although I found that an inversion table helped every once in awhile.
The kicking from a Muay Thai/kickboxing striking class I was taking is what did me in. The violent twisting and rotation needed to generate power and the subsequent impact re-herniated it and now is beyond saving. I did my best to stay in shape even though I am north of 50 and it backfires. I always thought the JiuJitsu class the hour before was what was going to do me in since I already had years of experience in the striking background, That's the way the cookie crumbles I guess. Reboot...start over.
I wish you good luck, and speedy recovery.
Adrenaline_6
01-17-20, 08:08
I wish you good luck, and speedy recovery.
Thank you. I'm still in pretty good shape, so I should recover well barring some unforeseen circumstance.
I tell you what though. I like to think I have a pretty high pain tolerance having had 6 kidney stones, but this constant gnawing pain with short spurts of downright debilitating sharp pain if overworked totally starts to wear on your psyche. I can't remember days going by this slow since childhood. The 4th and the surgery can't come soon enough. I look forward to being able to play with my dogs outside again.
Grand58742
02-03-20, 19:41
Someone needs to send the Iranian Government a copy of "How to win friends and influence people."
https://www.foxnews.com/world/iran-ends-cooperation-with-ukraine-plane-crash-probe
Iran has stopped cooperating with Ukraine in its investigation of a downed Ukrainian jetliner last month following the release of an audio clip that suggested Tehran knew its missiles brought down the passenger plane.
The clip broadcasted by Ukrainian media on Sunday aired an exchange in Farsi between the pilot of an Iran Aseman Airlines flight and air traffic control.
The pilot is heard saying that he saw flashing lights in the sky, suggesting it could be missile fire, the Wall Street Journal reported. Iran initially denied responsibly for bringing down Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 on Jan. 8.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told local media outlets that “the recording, indeed, shows that the Iranian side knew from the start that our plane was shot down by a missile, they were aware of this at the moment of the shooting.”
He has insisted that Iran bring the plane's black boxes to Kiev.
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