View Full Version : And To Think...We Used To Make Fun Of Russia For Empty Shelves At The Store...
Thankfully things are gradually improving, grocery stores now have food and even food you are looking for from time to time, but you have to really have a plan to be able to walk in and buy toilet paper.
I think back to the 70s and how we were shown pictures of long ass lines for whatever kind of food the store happened to have at the time in the Soviet Union. I understand panic buyers are the cause, but seriously are we saying Charmin can't handle any kind of demand?
You would think this would be a dream come true for a company that has a never ending demand for their product. You would think ramping up production would be easy and what they have been waiting on all this time. Supply and demand should easily cover increased production even if that means round the clock shifts and additional production facilities no?
I bet if there were a similar, sudden demand for printer paper, paper mills would spring up like weeds in your yard. So how did we actually come to this? This isn't anything new, it is just the latest evolution of things like SARS and MERS. I get that they are trying not to crash the medical response systems in the country but I'm still mystified by the no toilet paper on the shelves thing.
And more importantly, if corona is so dangerous that people shouldn't go to work, to restaurants and things like that...how is everyone buying ALL the toilet paper? Seems to me that Wal Mart aisle would be like ground zero for most likely source of infection. Apparently EVERYONE has been there today.
My store was wiped out of TP two weeks ago. Long before any social distancing or shelter in place orders were given, we were out. I am also mystified why this is happening. My manager pulled two cases from back stock and has held them for my employees. Our warehouse is still out of TP, but our local Costco has PILES of TP available. As such, I told my purchasing lady to not overbuy on TP because there isn't going to be a need in the near future. Idiots that have made a run on TP most likely won't be buying more.
My store was wiped out of TP two weeks ago. Long before any social distancing or shelter in place orders were given, we were out. I am also mystified why this is happening. My manager pulled two cases from back stock and has held them for my employees. Our warehouse is still out of TP, but our local Costco has PILES of TP available. As such, I told my purchasing lady to not overbuy on TP because there isn't going to be a need in the near future. Idiots that have made a run on TP most likely won't be buying more.
I could sorta understand Alaska given that you guys are kind of off the grid for many "lower 48" produced items. But the whole thing is just weird.
If you had told me HK, Uzi, FAL "part kits" would one day be "the thing" I'd have called you crazy. Then they were the thing.
If you had told me the Obama scare would obliterate ammo stocks for a year and when ammo finally did come back prices for EVERYTHING would be doubled and would stay that way, I'd have called you crazy.
If you'd have told me that even after the sunset, Sandy Hook would drive the price of Pmags to $100, I'd have called you crazy.
I know that quality firearms will always be valuable firearms and I know junk / crap firearms will always be crap even if they ban them...but I'm always stunned by what people decide is going to be the next "unobtanium item" and now it's freaking toilet paper.
I have 10,000 plus round of 5.56, way more than a few 100 AR mags, but I can't simply walk into any store at any time and grab a giant multi pack of TP. It's amazing.
Also people aren't panicking hard enough, they need to get those ARs and Pmags off of the market before the official "pre election" panic buy sets in. I need to let several Pmags go and I'd like them to be moving at $100 per mag. I missed the boat on the Sandy Hook panic and didn't move fast enough.
Mauser KAR98K
04-01-20, 00:34
The difference between us and the Soviets is that their shelves never returned to being remotely stocked. Ours evidently will and in short order.
I still have the pile of PMags and aluminum BCM mags I bought in preparation for the 2016 election. I lost that gamble, but I still have my inventory.
This is serendipity. About 10 days before the TP panic hit I signed up for Amazon Prime. I always hate buying TP at the grocery as the large package usually means an extra trip to the garage to lug it in. So I bought a case of 72 rolls for $3 less delivered than the grocery.
Since I live alone and had a couple dozen rolls already I’m set for a year or more. Or was until I hit on thanking the letter carrier and UPS guy who lugs my ammo with 12 packs of TP. They DO appreciate it more than the bag of candy I occasionally hand out.
Or was until I hit on thanking the letter carrier and UPS guy who lugs my ammo with 12 packs of TP. They DO appreciate it more than the bag of candy I occasionally hand out.
Nice gesture!
Straight Shooter
04-01-20, 00:59
I still have the pile of PMags and aluminum BCM mags I bought in preparation for the 2016 election. I lost that gamble, but I still have my inventory.
Dont cash in your chips yet..I dont think youve "lost" nothing, yet.
The difference between us and the Soviets is that their shelves never returned to being remotely stocked. Ours evidently will and in short order.
I know, but it's still an "odd moment" in the history of our country and one we were never intended to experience if you believe all the social indoctrination we received growing up. I mean how many aircraft carriers did we crank out in two years after Pearl Harbor? You saying we couldn't do that with toilet paper?
I still have the pile of PMags and aluminum BCM mags I bought in preparation for the 2016 election. I lost that gamble, but I still have my inventory.
Yeah, it's win / win. I will either sell them at prices that are insane or I will continue to have the largest pile of Pmags in my zip code. I'm good either way.
You would think this would be a dream come true for a company that has a never ending demand for their product. You would think ramping up production would be easy and what they have been waiting on all this time. Supply and demand should easily cover increased production even if that means round the clock shifts and additional production facilities no?
I bet if there were a similar, sudden demand for printer paper, paper mills would spring up like weeds in your yard. So how did we actually come to this? This isn't anything new, it is just the latest evolution of things like SARS and MERS. I get that they are trying not to crash the medical response systems in the country but I'm still mystified by the no toilet paper on the shelves thing.
Not sure how easy it would be. Particularly these days when all the forecasting for demand is carefully scrutinized and then processed by efficiency experts.
The whole supply chain is geared toward the established demand. Not just the factories and staff but the transport system also. We saw the same effect when there was a run on ammo.
First there is a lag between the demand spike and the increased output. While that happens, the well is dry.
Then there is an assessment of the true demand which is not really represented by the spike. If there is truly a significant increase in demand, that might justify adding new equipment and hiring more people to run it. That takes time to assess and then to build more stuff; which takes more time.
If the sudden demand is an anomaly, you can ramp up a bit and call on whatever reserve /excess capacity the system has, (assuming it isn't going 24/7 already) to catch up with today's needs but this is a temporary solution to deal with the surge. Sometimes ways can be found to boost the output of existing equipment but even that takes time. Factory managers are usually encouraged to do this anyway so don't expect an epiphany greater than 5%.
Its a little early to be investing in more machinery and training extra shifts for what is likely a momentary demand fluctuation.
They could cut corners. It could be less per package to be able to distribute the same capacity to more customers, or it could be a component change that reduces tooling changeover (changing = machine downtime - so guess where small primer 45ACP came from).
We don't even know where the bottleneck is in the system: raw materials, production, transport or distribution.
Dont cash in your chips yet..I dont think youve "lost" nothing, yet.
Don't worry. I know how this game is played after a few "shortages". No mercy this time, unless you're a kid. If you just turned 18 and didn't have an option before I might cut you a break. If you're 35 and didn't see this coming, well.. shrug.
Don't worry. I know how this game is played after a few "shortages". No mercy this time, unless you're a kid. If you just turned 18 and didn't have an option before I might cut you a break. If you're 35 and didn't see this coming, well.. shrug.
Wouldn't it be ironic if the Great Toilet Paper shortage of 2020 actually kicked off the Boog and we had to use all that guns, gear and ammo we've been hoarding because they came for our toilet paper.
How would we even explain that in history books. Yet, we've seen dumber things.
I still have the pile of PMags and aluminum BCM mags I bought in preparation for the 2016 election. I lost that gamble, but I still have my inventory.
I was on the edge of buying 1000 BCM or Browning mags in the fall of 2016 with the plan of reselling them for $10 more per mag. Not wanting to deal with the tire kickers and low ballers of the world and the hope of Trump winning kept me from pulling the trigger.
Andy
Wouldn't it be ironic if the Great Toilet Paper shortage of 2020 actually kicked off the Boog and we had to use all that guns, gear and ammo we've been hoarding because they came for our toilet paper.
How would we even explain that in history books. Yet, we've seen dumber things.
Some future rendition of The History Guy: "..... and it all started over, no shit, toilet paper!"
Grand58742
04-01-20, 07:37
Wouldn't it be ironic if the Great Toilet Paper shortage of 2020 actually kicked off the Boog and we had to use all that guns, gear and ammo we've been hoarding because they came for our toilet paper.
How would we even explain that in history books. Yet, we've seen dumber things.
https://i.imgflip.com/33y8by.jpg
Grand58742
04-01-20, 07:45
I know, but it's still an "odd moment" in the history of our country and one we were never intended to experience if you believe all the social indoctrination we received growing up. I mean how many aircraft carriers did we crank out in two years after Pearl Harbor? You saying we couldn't do that with toilet paper?
I saw an article or news blurb, something or other, about this. Apparently one of the factories that produces it burned a few months ago and they are just now getting back up to speed on it. Talk about Karma.
If I were "Charmin", I wouldn't ramp up shit. The production is adequate, and these f@#ktards aren't going to buy a roll for two years after this nonsense has passed.
Grand58742
04-01-20, 08:27
If I were "Charmin", I wouldn't ramp up shit. The production is adequate, and these f@#ktards aren't going to buy a roll for two years after this nonsense has passed.
That's the problem though, we still have f@#ktards buying up every bit they can regardless if they need it or not. Stores around here (I'd probably say in most places) have limited purchases to one per customer per day.
I'm good since I saw this coming and grabbed a large pack when the shelves were still stocked. I needed it anyway, but regardless, people are going Simple Jack over the toilet paper when it hits the aisles.
I mean how many aircraft carriers did we crank out in two years after Pearl Harbor? You saying we couldn't do that with toilet paper?
Actually, relatively few. Most of the Essex-Class Carriers launched before Dec. 1943 were ordered back in '40 and '41, and the gap between being laid down and commissioned is about 2 years. For escort carriers and the like, there was less of a lead needed, but the overwhelming might of US Naval production really didn't hit the water til mid to late '43 at the earliest, so about 2 years in. That's why after Coral Sea and Midway there was a distinct lack of carriers for supporting Guadalcanal.
Bringing this from Torpedoes to TP, it's the same thing; no one anticipated the sudden increase in demand. Even if Charmin decided to go into full War Time, butt wiping levels of production, it'll take some time for everything else in the logistics chain to shake itself out. Give it a few more months, and that may be the case. A few weeks? Yeah, not going to happen, especially not when our entire inventory system was based on "just in time" principals.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B075983YXZ?tag=duckduckgo-iphone-20&linkCode=osi&th=1&psc=1
I’m sure these have been flying off the shelves as well.
People are focused on the toilet paper hoarding and that’s kind of silly and all, but the real issue is Mother’s who formula feed because they do not produce milk- people are buying up all the formula, not just what they need for a week or two and others are having trouble finding it.
We just had twins and my wife doesn’t have issues, but it got me thinking if for some reason her supply dried up or she got sick, what would we do? All the formula is being bought up as soon as it hits the shelf around here.
It’s still available online, but even waiting a day or two if you didn’t plan ahead could be really bad for some babies.
So We are pumping and freeezing milk. But it’s a long game to build a supply that would be viable for more than a few days due to how much milk two new borns need each day.
The toilet paper thing is a bit frustrating, but the formula hoarding is straight up messed up and kids will be malnourished because of it. ****ing people, man...
The toilet paper thing is a bit frustrating, but the formula hoarding is straight up messed up and kids will be malnourished because of it. ****ing people, man...
Seems to be a fair amount on eBay.
Seems to be a fair amount on eBay.
Yes, but waiting a day or two for shipping to feed a child could be rough. Not everyone was prepared as they should have been and most folks with low incomes buy day to day or week to week at the local store
Yes, but waiting a day or two for shipping to feed a child could be rough. Not everyone was prepared as they should have been and most folks with low incomes buy day to day or week to week at the local storeVery true.
Not up to speed on formula pricing do I didn't know if it was getting scalped on there like sanitizing stuff or not.
Sent from my LM-X410.FGN using Tapatalk
We are far too reliant on China. Perhaps this is just the wake up call people needed.
But I am betting it isn’t.
We are far too reliant on China. Perhaps this is just the wake up call people needed.
But I am betting it isn’t.
I think a lot of people already knew that. Some loathed it, some loved it, and some didn't care with each subdivision having different reasons why. Might move quite a few from the not caring group to the loathe, but the ones who love it are still running the show.
sundance435
04-01-20, 12:47
Supply chains ain't what they used to be. Not only are we relying on other countries more, but our own domestic supply chains are really not designed to account for situations like this. The whole system is very lean - not a lot of slack or stock waiting to be used, which is why logistics is a booming industry - great and efficient on an average day, but not for a situation like this. As gets alluded to in times like these, 90% of this country is only 2 really bad weeks away from starving when the ships, trains and semis, stop or have nothing to deliver. Even ramping up production of something like toilet paper, you'd probably only start to see it reflected in the supply chain several weeks after they increase.
So of course the day AFTER I post this stuff I score a 30 roll megapack of Charmin Ultra. I drove around with it in the front seat like I had a Italian supermodel in my car.
So of course the day AFTER I post this stuff I score a 30 roll megapack of Charmin Ultra. I drove around with it in the front seat like I had a Italian supermodel in my car.
Ha! Now that is funny. You just might have been in a Bond film.
Been some interesting articles on TP supply chains.
Short version:
- the supply chains for retail toilet paper and that of commercial toilet paper are completely separate once past manufacturer. Really two completely different products as well. Mfgs are now having to convert more production for retail product.
- the enforced stay-at-home has caused people to utilize 40% more toilet paper from retail sources as quite simply they are not pooping at work as much.
So while there is some hoarding, that would have been a short-term spike. Now it's just significantly increased demand in the retail channel and virtually no demands and the commercial channel. Which is not packaged for retail sales so you're out of luck.
The same thing has happened to groceries, people are eating at home that used to eat out almost double as often. Most children ate lunch at school, a large percentage ate breakfast at school. (Or daycare)
So again while there might be some short-term hoarding of groceries, or people buying in advanced more than they normally would, there is also significantly increase legitimate demand.
And again, food in commercial supply chains is getting the unsold, to the point that some are giving it away rather than letting it spoil. And gain, not packaged for retail, thus illegal to sell
Meanwhile there is a guy on this forum who bought 90000 rounds of 5.56 with the intention of repackaging and selling when the price roughly doubled.
Belmont31R
04-11-20, 19:16
My Econ professor was a lady who grew up in Soviet Russia. She told us about getting an orange for Christmas and how excited each kid was to get an orange. For the most part they scrounged around for food, and things like fresh fruits and vegetables were very scarce.
I wouldn't put this situation anything close to the average Soviet food experience. We went maybe a week where TP was cleaned out. Cleaning supplies and alcohol get wiped out quick. For the most part you can still buy everything but have to hunt a little more and pay higher prices if you really need something.
People are correct that theres a shakeup in the distribution of goods because of all the people working from home or laid off, and that supply chains are built to be lean where theres not a lot of product just sitting around to fill gaps. Theres no giant warehouses full of goods just sitting there in storage ready to fill sudden surges in demand. That would cost a lot of money when common grocery store items are usually pretty low margin to begin with. They make money off volume so shit sitting in storage would quickly eat up margins or mean we pay quite a bit more for no reason other than stuff sitting around before we purchase those items.
This scenario is actually why quite a few firearm manufacturers and distributers have gone out of business. During panics people ramped up production and distribution capability just to see demand fall through the floor then they're stuck with an operation they can no longer afford. Better to work within your existing capability than trying to chase some quick sales that require investment and costs you may not be able to sustain in the future.
My Econ professor was a lady who grew up in Soviet Russia. She told us about getting an orange for Christmas and how excited each kid was to get an orange. For the most part they scrounged around for food, and things like fresh fruits and vegetables were very scarce.
I wouldn't put this situation anything close to the average Soviet food experience. We went maybe a week where TP was cleaned out. Cleaning supplies and alcohol get wiped out quick. For the most part you can still buy everything but have to hunt a little more and pay higher prices if you really need something.
People are correct that theres a shakeup in the distribution of goods because of all the people working from home or laid off, and that supply chains are built to be lean where theres not a lot of product just sitting around to fill gaps. Theres no giant warehouses full of goods just sitting there in storage ready to fill sudden surges in demand. That would cost a lot of money when common grocery store items are usually pretty low margin to begin with. They make money off volume so shit sitting in storage would quickly eat up margins or mean we pay quite a bit more for no reason other than stuff sitting around before we purchase those items.
This scenario is actually why quite a few firearm manufacturers and distributers have gone out of business. During panics people ramped up production and distribution capability just to see demand fall through the floor then they're stuck with an operation they can no longer afford. Better to work within your existing capability than trying to chase some quick sales that require investment and costs you may not be able to sustain in the future.
I get that and wasn't trying to draw a direct equivalence, just an ironic similarity, something we'd have scoffed at in the 70s if it happened anywhere else.
I also think it is mostly human psychology. People are almost at a complete loss for what to do or when to do it, so if they can stockpile 10 megapacks of toilet paper, the "feel" like they are somehow more prepared because they can't do anything about all of the other more serious threats.
And every time the "state of emergency" gets extended, they go and "panic buy" the grocery stores again. Had to go to three different places to complete a shopping list of 12 items. Not sure why one store would run completely out of sour cream but thankfully one of the smaller stores still had some.
People continue to annoy, confuse and frustrate me.
My Econ professor was a lady who grew up in Soviet Russia. She told us about getting an orange for Christmas and how excited each kid was to get an orange. For the most part they scrounged around for food, and things like fresh fruits and vegetables were very scarce.
How old was she?
It was a big deal to get a fresh orange for my parents' generation at Christmas as well - in the upper mid-west of the U.S - I've heard that same story, it is a logistics / transportation issue from that time not scarcity of oranges.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.5 Copyright © 2024 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.