View Full Version : After the storm, then what?
If we have learned anything from past experience (with 9/11, 2008 recession, etc) it is that nothing ever goes "back to normal". Crap hits fan, measures are taken for "temporary relief/safety", crisis ends, and those temporary measures ease but not back to zero. Not back to "normal".
I have already started to see talk of "America 2.0", "remaking society", ....
We know that .gov on both sides of the aisle will try to use this pandemic to stuff more of the camel into the tent. They always do.
UN Secretary General , "need to remake society..." to be more egalitarian, more fair to the poor, blah blah blah, gimme 9 trillion .
My magic 8-ball says we are looking at some interesting times once we make it through these difficult times.
I hope people continue to wash their hands and stay home if they are sick.
Belmont31R
04-04-20, 20:54
If we have learned anything from past experience (with 9/11, 2008 recession, etc) it is that nothing ever goes "back to normal". Crap hits fan, measures are taken for "temporary relief/safety", crisis ends, and those temporary measures ease but not back to zero. Not back to "normal".
I have already started to see talk of "America 2.0", "remaking society", ....
We know that .gov on both sides of the aisle will try to use this pandemic to stuff more of the camel into the tent. They always do.
UN Secretary General , "need to remake society..." to be more egalitarian, more fair to the poor, blah blah blah, gimme 9 trillion .
My magic 8-ball says we are looking at some interesting times once we make it through these difficult times.
Nothing drastically is going to change as long as you have a decent R governor in your state and DJT is reelected.
People in blue states? Should already be used to sweeping knee jerk reactions to tax, take away rights, and control more of the economy/people.
Averageman
04-04-20, 21:28
For the most part, people have seemed to be hesitant or totally unable to accept that the left is wrong.
Look at the epicenters of this virus, who is in charge, who is now begging President Trump for support and equipment? The very same Governor's who worked to bring him down.
Who ran a carnival scam that delayed the necessary support to the People and Businesses?
It's all hands on deck, but some would rather bitch while the ship sinks than grab a bucket and bail.
I just hope people can take an unbiased look at what happened and why.
But I seriously doubt that will happen.
I think we need to sectionalize this topic into two main points:
Legislative Normalcy and Society Normalcy.
In most contexts and days, Society continues forward with little to no "requirement" of the Government. Even after 9/11, the recessions, people are people.
We will go back to eating in restaurants, college classes will resume, schools will go back in session. Life will... resume.
That, in all events and cases (even in the worst of scenarios), is a promised truth (short of full humanity extinction).
Legislative Normalcy, in my opine, is occurring at 99% of all scenarios.
Large Pandemic, Mini Pandemic, No Pandemic, Manufactured Fear, Real Fear, Created Division, Elitism, Statism; it's all a never ending pendulum.
The reality is... this is normal for our "politicians". There is no such thing as a "wasted opportunity".
The sooner we understand that the Legislative Representatives have their own vested interests, and gains to be had by furthering them, the better.
If it was my choice, no one performing a legislative civic duty (not including Government Employees) would collect a salary. Stipend, Expenses, sure. But 175k a year to work a third of the time the Average American does for almost FOUR times the average median income with the best outcomes expected equal of a circle jerk where everyone cucks themselves? Nah.
WE will go back to normal, but they're not impacted like society is, therefore, they will bend us over like they always do. Especially when they have a scared population unbuckling their belts in the guise of "safety".
But, I am sure I am sounding ranty at this point, so I will leave it at that.
I think one of the changes is many employers will realize they don't need as many employees as they previously thought AND it can be cheaper of some of the other employees they retain work from home.
Look at the evolution of the doctor who once made house calls to your home, to running local in town clinics which were basic "walk in at will" to you need an appointment unless it's an emergency and if it is an emergency to the the emergency room. Now we are at phone consultations and they don't even want you in the building unless it's very, very likely you have it or something just as bad.
Medical care has gone from full service with attendants checking your wipers, fluids and air pressure while they fill it up to completely self serve where you pay at the pump and the air pressure machine probably doesn't even work. That will be more and more of the norm...
And while there isn't a cure, there seem to be more than a few effective treatments, some of which are even over the counter so eventually I think this one will get reigned in. The big question is will we be able to totally contain and eliminate it like we did with SARS are will it just be part of the annual cast of bugs, flus and viruses that plague us every year that we treat as best we can assuming we haven't developed a antidote for.
A lot of legit schools do a ton of online content, online study assignments and online testing. I don't think classrooms will go the way of the dodo bird, but it could happen in some version or another, especially if parents now work from home. Upside of that scenario is there won't be a lot of school shootings if nobody is in the building.
So there will be changes and we might end up with a new normal. I know this is dramatic and unprecedented, I've never seen schools say "Hey ya know what, let's just call it good for the year...inn March no less." I've never seen so many people told to "take the month off and don't go to work unless you really, really have to." Lots of people found out that lots of reliable, easy to get entry level jobs like waiting tables or any other service oriented occupations have "no real guarantees of anything." If I didn't see it, I wouldn't have believed it.
Just like every real estate agent became functionally useless after the housing market crash, all those people trying to take care of their families with those kind of jobs just got a huge wake up call. And it's not just working class folks...if you are a consultant and you can't get it done on skype or by phone...nobody wants to take a face to face meeting with you on the off chance they may want to retain whatever kind of service you are offering. In a month people I know personally went for averaging $6,000 a month to more like $600 a month but the cost of doing business stayed more or less the same. The bottom has completely fallen out of their business model and it won't be coming back anytime soon.
Those who saved and put away for a rainy day and hopefully pivot to a new kind of occupation, those who are barely making more than the margins of operation are just done...have or soon will have nothing in reserve and will quickly lose just about everything on the fast lane to square one...starting over from the beginning with nothing.
If we have any kind of serious economic crash like the Obama recession, whole sections of our economy might be devastated and may require more than a 10 year recovery. I don't want to even think about a 20 year climb out of the bottom of a deep hole.
On the other hand, if this virus is somehow contained in the next 30 days (for the most part) and things mostly become business as usual where most people go to work, can sit in starbucks and sip their coffee while surfing the net and then drop by the store to grab a few things for dinner...all without them or the employees having to wear Level 20 Hiroshima model Hazmat suits things could get mostly back to normal with the odd spring of 2020 in everyone's memory.
We could also have established a baseline emergency response plan for any new health risk where people will have a better idea of what to do in the first weeks, and there will be plenty of toilet paper because everyone will have stocked a tactical reserve of 15 megapacks over the summer...you know...just in case.
Despite my smallish pantry compared to the freaking huge kitchen I left behind in South Florida, I'm gonna do my best to keep it hard stacked with the essential and going to attempt to maintain two months of food for a "no matter what happened" event.
The_War_Wagon
04-05-20, 06:08
UN Secretary General , "need to remake society..." to be more egalitarian, more fair to the poor, blah blah blah, gimme 9 trillion .
FIRST thing? Boot those freeloaders OUT of the country.
They can move their HQ to... China. :mad:
FIRST thing? Boot those freeloaders OUT of the country.
They can move their HQ to... China. :mad:
This should tell you everything you need to know about the U.N.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-un-human-rights-council-coronavirus-response
I would not be surprised to see many older corporations move to a flexible work place/tele work model. Why pay for a bunch of square footage, office furniture, parking, and electricity when you don't have to. Most of my folks could work from home 2-3 days a week with zero impact, dedicated workspaces would not be required for those days, and we could easily stagger our program requirements to cut our office space needs in half.
On a personal level, I will maintain a stock of GOOD masks, disposable gloves, clorox wipes, and hand sanitizer. There will be another pandemic in my life (I'm 51) and it will probably be worse. We will continue to stock non-perishable food and staying home for weeks at a time has helped us fine-tune what that food should be.
Andy
Governments rarely give up their power after a crisis, so I think we'll see an increased amount of overreach. That's probably a "duh" statement, but the interesting part will be that it'll be the States doing a lot of the leg work, rather than the Feds. I'll be curious if we see more Federal funding for states to help them out, or if they'll have to pay their own way. Regardless, it's not going to look good for us.
hotrodder636
04-05-20, 10:35
I too am thinking that many companies will realize they can operate with less or minimize hours by incorporating telework.
Straight Shooter
04-05-20, 10:36
I keep thinking about the years following 9/11.
How, in the quest to do SOMETHING, a lot of shit was done & done WRONG.
And it depends on what party is in power at the time, as to the severity of how "wrong" the crap is.
We are in for the Covid19 version of 9/11. A lot will come out of this in the following months & years.
Dems will want crap- Repubs too. Then, so will the rest of the world.
We wont have Trump forever. I THANK GOD he is in office now, not that he is "perfect"..but yall seriously consider what would be happening now if Killary were in, or if a demonrat gets elected in the fall. Talk about a worsening situation. Gas on a fire.
And, the longer this sticks around, the more wrong stuff they will want to do. And thats IF nothing else hits.
We were united for about 4-5 months after 9/11. We aint ever been that way since, and politically speaking wont ever be again.
We coulda gone thru this and come out fine if the media & demonrat party's main concern was America, instead of still trying to get Trump out of office. Thats STILL today their main focus. Above all else. I not only dont see a good ending- I see really a fundamental change in our way of life coming & soon.
Dirk Williams
04-05-20, 10:51
A fiat nation can not continue to wipe its citizens life savings out and expect any level of support. My family is fine, my funding source are all GOVT, my friends, many here are private industry, are getting hammered hard, day to day, some will never really recover. We are helping several friends families members with needed supplies, diapers, are huge, our children and relatives, and our friends, children are hurting. We're doing what we can, but it's a dent in the real needs.
This politics thing is putting our young families futures, behind the debt, bubble.
This national shutdown is pure power politics, lose of liberties has already occurred, will continue to occur. Being preppers for the better part of thirty years, we have shared masks, rubber gloves, and offered to prepare at least one hot meal a day for our neighbors. Not needed yet, it is We The People who need to take care of us, anybody counting on mother govt, is asking for trouble.
Things have already changed, by design. Trump has held the NWO, and like at bay with his America First policies. So,e think it is him who is directly responsible for this financial collapse, I don't see it that way.
The left have been showing their hand this entire past three years, they will do ANYTHING, to recover the presidency, including tank this great nation.
If your not taking the time to discover who is really behind this, perhaps it's time. Their's a reckoning coming in our future. It won't be pretty.
DW
I think this pandemic has shown the limits of government power, at least here in the U.S. They can't nationally enforce a quarantine. Where I see a positive is it also shows any future Federal-level banning of firearms will not go how they think it will. Reigning in Americans is like herding cats. This pandemic shows that quite well. We don't queue up and obediently toe the line, we're not Europeans or Chinese or South Koreans. We have a propensity to flip the bird at authority; it's ingrained in us as a country. That won't be easily taken away.
What I’m most worried about is if a single court upholds a fine or jail sentence because a governor says so. That will establish precedent and that’s the beginning of the end in my mind or at least the final straw. Red Flag laws have you worried, you ain’t seen nothing yet!
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I would not be surprised to see many older corporations move to a flexible work place/tele work model. Why pay for a bunch of square footage, office furniture, parking, and electricity when you don't have to. Most of my folks could work from home 2-3 days a week with zero impact, dedicated workspaces would not be required for those days, and we could easily stagger our program requirements to cut our office space needs in half.
Working from home would negate a lot of micro managing many businesses crave so I wouldn't count on that being universal.
jethroUSMC
04-05-20, 13:05
I would not be surprised to see many older corporations move to a flexible work place/tele work model. Why pay for a bunch of square footage, office furniture, parking, and electricity when you don't have to. Most of my folks could work from home 2-3 days a week with zero impact, dedicated workspaces would not be required for those days, and we could easily stagger our program requirements to cut our office space needs in half.
On a personal level, I will maintain a stock of GOOD masks, disposable gloves, clorox wipes, and hand sanitizer. There will be another pandemic in my life (I'm 51) and it will probably be worse. We will continue to stock non-perishable food and staying home for weeks at a time has helped us fine-tune what that food should be.
Andy
Be careful what you wish for. Working in IT for over the last 2 decades, eventually the next cost cutting decision companies follow is to target at home work to offshore at an even larger savings on salaries and reduced non-captial expenses for benefits. Because if your job can be done from anywhere, why not India? Rinse...lather...repeat.
What I’m most worried about is if a single court upholds a fine or jail sentence because a governor says so. That will establish precedent and that’s the beginning of the end in my mind or at least the final straw. Red Flag laws have you worried, you ain’t seen nothing yet!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
We had a paddle boarder arrested earlier this week. Life guards spotted him and he refused their orders to return to the beach. They called the sheriff who called a patrol boat. He was arrested on suspicion of disobeying a lifeguard and violating Gov. Gavin Newsom’s stay-at-home order, a misdemeanor. He was booked and released. Possible $1000 fine or 6 months in jail.
While beaches are closed, the current stay at home order does allow you to go outside for exercise provided you maintain social distancing. Kinda hard to suggest he wasn't maintaining 6' paddle boarding by himself in the ocean...
Curious what the courts will say.
A week earlier, a surfer was fined $1000 for entering the water during the stay at home order. Don't know if he's fight it or what will happen in that case.
In both cases, the charges are misdemeanors.
Be careful what you wish for. Working in IT for over the last 2 decades, eventually the next cost cutting decision companies follow is to target at home work to offshore at an even larger savings on salaries and reduced non-captial expenses for benefits. Because if your job can be done from anywhere, why not India? Rinse...lather...repeat.
I work for a space/defense contractor and produce restricted distribution (i.e. no Foreign Nationals) products.
We are more threatened by customer trends than our corporation's cost saving initiatives.
Andy
Mr. Goodtimes
04-05-20, 23:39
Sure lets reelect the guy and his cronies that cost us God knows how many trillions by shutting down the country for boomer flu and then putting us another two trillion in debt with the stroke of a pen so low to middle income Americans can get a measly $1200 consolation prize for for the likely tens of thousands, if not more dollars they lost. If a democrat did this people would be losing their minds at what a catastrophic waste of money this is for no gain; orange man does it though and its all good because muh republican, muh America, muh not hitlery kitten. Traditionally the only thing republicans have even sort of not sucked at is curbing the inevitable creep towards full blown socialism; and lately they've ben failing at that too. Republicans care about preserving the constitution and conservative culture the same way the democrats care about the blacks and the gays. Each side just caters towards a different group of idiots looking for someone to follow because neither group wants to hear or admit that they've been lied to their whole lives by their elected officials.
Sure lets reelect the guy and his cronies that cost us God knows how many trillions by shutting down the country for boomer flu and then putting us another two trillion in debt with the stroke of a pen so low to middle income Americans can get a measly $1200 consolation prize for for the likely tens of thousands, if not more dollars they lost. If a democrat did this people would be losing their minds at what a catastrophic waste of money this is for no gain; orange man does it though and its all good because muh republican, muh America, muh not hitlery kitten. Traditionally the only thing republicans have even sort of not sucked at is curbing the inevitable creep towards full blown socialism; and lately they've ben failing at that too. Republicans care about preserving the constitution and conservative culture the same way the democrats care about the blacks and the gays. Each side just caters towards a different group of idiots looking for someone to follow because neither group wants to hear or admit that they've been lied to their whole lives by their elected officials.
Time will either vindicate or condemn.
If the whole thing turns into a nothing burger then Lucy is gonna have some splain'ing to do.
But currently in the US:
337,000+ cases and we seem to have the highest numbers in the world, although there is no way China is reporting accurate numbers. 9,600+ deaths and 17,000+ recovered. Obviously there are a lot of cases that aren't known yet.
I know the move was an attempt to contain and eradicate the virus like they did with SARS, but not sure we are gonna pull it off. Probably worth the try. If they fail it will be another seasonal virus that is always with us and even a vaccine probably wouldn't change that.
Now if despite efforts, this still becomes a record setting pandemic that will be remembered for the rest of the century, then any effort was worth it.
I tend to see the entire thing as a test of the plan of action, either completely necessary or simply one bad enough to engage in some data gathering. Obviously there is a cost and probably more on the way. Again, time will tell if it was a best effort or a futile gesture that needlessly costs everyone.
Hasn't been easy, I'm going on almost a month with no income and $2,400 won't dig us out of that hole. Trump is sort of in a no win, if we gets lots of deaths - he waited too long, if it looks like he claimed the sky is falling and everyone gets the corona sniffles but the deaths associated aren't any more or any worse than a bad flu strain then he is really gonna take the heat, especially in the next elections.
But more importantly than what he did or didn't do and what he should have done or not done, will be who he runs against. If it's any of the usual DNC fanatics I'll still be voting Trump. I also expect the GOP to attempt to undermine him and somehow nominate a new candidate that is more to their liking.
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