View Full Version : Crazy storm season this year:
Grand58742
09-17-20, 22:43
Not quite to the level of 2005 when we were graced with Katrina, Rita and Wilma (28 total tropical cyclones) but it's a close second at 20 with at least a month to go.
Right now, there are three named tropical cyclones going on, another getting warmed up (no puns intended) in the Gulf that will probably take us through the 21 officially named storms of this year and two more for good measure possibly forming up near Africa.
I hope those in coastal areas and impact zones are keeping safe.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.png?180252
Eh, it's on par for 2020.
Straight Shooter
09-18-20, 07:51
delete
The_War_Wagon
09-18-20, 08:13
WHY do I recall '95 as being worse than '05? :confused:
Katrina aside.
Grand58742
09-18-20, 10:29
WHY do I recall '95 as being worse than '05? :confused:
Katrina aside.
I remember 95 well, but that's because I was on the Emerald Coast at Eglin for that season. Missed Erin (evacuated to Atlanta with our birds) but rode out Opal.
morbidbattlecry
09-18-20, 11:18
Did we even have a tornado season this year? Or did it buried under covid and political news?
Grand58742
09-18-20, 11:22
Did we even have a tornado season this year? Or did it buried under covid and political news?
Distinct lack of major storms out here in OK. The weather has been odd for certain.
We've been getting rain daily & it's in the forecast the next few days...last thing needed is that system to the south pounding us when saturated.
Grand58742
10-05-20, 13:56
Not quite to the level of 2005 when we were graced with Katrina, Rita and Wilma (28 total tropical cyclones) but it's a close second at 20 with at least a month to go.
Well, about that. 26 named storms this year with Delta 2020 looking to make landfall in Louisiana or the Panhandle (maybe split the two at Mobile)
And I ran my heater in September in Oklahoma...
WTF is up with the weather?
This storm off Mexico projected to his Louisiana as a Cat 2. What the hell has Louisiana done to piss off 2020 so bad??
LA is generally the bullseye for anything moving north in the gulf. If it's big, it's gonna hit LA.
LA is generally the bullseye for anything moving north in the gulf. If it's big, it's gonna hit LA.
I have a bunch of family on the gulf coast of Mississippi. I just assume it misses them.
A few years ago it was all Texas. This year seems to be Louisiana's number.
Hurricane season is especially bad this year because Trump didn’t mandate masks and enforce lockdowns. See how easy it is when you think like a ComDem?
I have a four day weekend this weekend and I had planned to do some serious fishing, but it looks like it's going to be another weekend of filling sandbags.
Diamondback
10-05-20, 17:57
Hurricane season is especially bad this year because Trump EXISTS. See how easy it is when you think like a ComDem?
FIFY... :(
P2Vaircrewman
10-05-20, 20:42
I feel like I am the X ring and mother nature is a bad shot. I hope she misses again. Storms to the right, storms to the left, stuck in the middle with you.
Hurricane Delta is now a category 4 and they are saying will continue to strengthen. You guys on the gulf coast batten down the hatches and be careful.
Does anyone think NO learned anything last time?? I doubt it. Let the looting begin.
Does anyone think NO learned anything last time?? I doubt it. Let the looting begin.
No hurricane needed- looting can start just because it’s Tuesday.
I have a bunch of family on the gulf coast of Mississippi. I just assume it misses them.
A few years ago it was all Texas. This year seems to be Louisiana's number.
If it comes in under Florida moving west, it's gonna be TX / LA. If it comes in low and steers north then east it's gonna be MS / FL.
The gulf is a giant game of wind pinball.
Hurricane season is especially bad this year because Trump didn’t mandate masks and enforce lockdowns. See how easy it is when you think like a ComDem?
Don't throw stones, plenty of people on our side who actually think god smites people wholesale with weather because they allow gay marriage or abortion.
I feel like I am the X ring and mother nature is a bad shot. I hope she misses again. Storms to the right, storms to the left, stuck in the middle with you.
As a 30 year resident of South Florida, accept that you won't know where it's going EXACTLY until it's too late to do anything about it. If you are gonna stay, make sure you are prepped for a direct hit, if you are gonna bail, make sure you do it in time.
Good luck to you guys.
P2Vaircrewman
10-06-20, 18:38
If the track holds the eye will pass 90 miles west of me. The company that does this forecast for the petrochemical and petroleum industry here have been pretty much dead right, they are paid big bucks to be right. The companies don't want to shutdown anything unnecessarily.
Hurricane Delta Advisory 11
Valid: 04:00 PM EDT Tuesday October 06, 2020
Current Location: 18.9N, 84.0W
Geographic Reference: 230 miles SE of Cancun, MX
Movement: Northwest at 16 mph
Max Winds: 140 mph gusting to 165 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 20 out of a possible 50 points (4 size, 16 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 23 out of a possible 50 points (8 size, 15 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 80 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 125 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Estimated Central Pressure: 956 mb
Key Points
1. Delta's intensification has at least temporarily leveled-off.
2. We made a small westward adjustment to the final landfall point along the Louisiana coast.
3. Landfall is still predicted to occur early Saturday morning on the middle coast of Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane.
Our Forecast
We have made a very slight westward track adjustment for the final landfall point along the middle Louisiana coast in this advisory. The center of Delta may pass over the eastern edge of Marsh Island in Vermilion Bay before moving inland by 4 AM CDT on Saturday. This represents about a 12 mile adjustment to the west in the point of landfall. There are no other changes in this advisory.
In its last pass through the center of Delta, a reconnaissance plane found no change from the 130 mph winds it found earlier. The pressure was no longer falling, either. We think that Delta's strengthening has slowed considerably over the past few hours, though it is likely to strengthen some prior to reaching the Yucatan Peninsula near Cancun early tomorrow morning.
As Delta tracks over land tomorrow morning, it should both weaken and the wind field will grow in size a little. However conditions across the southern Gulf of Mexico will be favorable for Delta to regain Category 4 strength by Thursday morning. As for its size, Delta should still be of below-normal size as it tracks across the Gulf of Mexico. As a smaller hurricane at landfall, its storm surge would be lower than for an average-sized hurricane.
By Thursday evening, we think that Delta slow its forward speed considerably as it begins a gradual northward turn. As Delta accelerates northward toward Louisiana on Friday, it should slowly weaken up until it makes landfall early on Saturday morning. How much Delta weakens before landfall remains uncertain. We are predicting Delta could still be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall, but Delta could be stronger or weaker by as much as 20 mph, depending upon how it is impacted by increasin g wind shear and cooler water closer to the coast Once inland, Delta is predicted to accelerate to the northeast while steadily weakening to a tropical depression by the time it reaches central Mississippi Saturday evening.
Expected Impacts On Land
Cancun and Cozumel, MX: Widespread severe damage and long lasting power outages are expected.
Northern Gulf Coast: There is an increasing risk of widespread, long lasting power outages as well as significant wind damage. Damage from tidal surge is also possible. Inland flooding could also occur due to heavy rainfall.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Central Gulf of Mexico: The first squalls may reach the deepwater lease areas south of Louisiana and Mississippi by Thursday morning, though they may not reach the waters offshore southeast Louisiana in the Mississippi Canyon area until around 3 PM Thursday.
The next advisory will be issued by 9 PM CDT.
It is way too early to call this one, that track is going to evolve.
As a 30 year resident of South Florida, accept that you won't know where it's going EXACTLY until it's too late to do anything about it. If you are gonna stay, make sure you are prepped for a direct hit, if you are gonna bail, make sure you do it in time.
Good luck to you guys.
Texas, Florida, North Carolina are the three states with the most hurricane landfalls, in order. I think Louisiana is jealous.
P2Vaircrewman
10-07-20, 10:00
Hurricane Delta Advisory 14
Valid: 10:00 AM EDT Wednesday October 07, 2020
Current Location: 21.3N, 87.8W
Geographic Reference: Over the Northern Yucatan Peninsula
Movement: Northwest at 17 mph
Max Winds: 105 mph gusting to 125 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 13 out of a possible 50 points (4 size, 9 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 25 out of a possible 50 points (10 size, 15 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 105 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 160 miles
Organizational Trend: Weakening
Forecast Confidence: Average
Estimated Central Pressure: 978 mb
Key Points
1. We have nudged the final landfall point to just west of Vermilion Bay, LA.
2. There is still a good bit of uncertainty about Delta's intensity at landfall.
Our Forecast
The center of Delta is crossing the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. A reconnaissance plane is currently investigating Delta, but the plane cannot penetrate the center while it is over land. Given that the last reconnaissance mission indicated significant weakening, we think that Delta's winds are below Category 3 intensity.
Though Delta has weakened significantly overnight, conditions across the Gulf of Mexico will be favorable for steady strengthening this afternoon through Thursday evening. Delta will likely regain Category 4 strength by tomorrow afternoon. However, once Delta begins turning northward Thursday night, its winds should steadily decrease up until landfall. Our forecast has Delta as a strong Category 2 hurricane at landfall. However, Delta's winds could be up to 20 mph stronger or weaker than we are predicting for landfall.
Model guidance has trended a little farther to the west with landfall overnight, generally toward the western side of Vermilion Bay. We are predicting that the center of Delta will move ashore a little to the west of Vermilion Bay in this advisory. In addition, landfall has been moved up to Friday afternoon, as guidance suggests a little faster forward speed today and on Thursday.
Finally, model guidance indicates that Delta's wind field will expand on Thursday and Friday prior to landfall. Though Delta won't be an extremely large hurricane at landfall, it will be closer to average-sized with hurricane-force winds extending out to 40 miles east of the center and 30 miles west of the center.
Expected Impacts On Land
Northern Gulf Coast: There is a risk of widespread, long lasting power outages as well as significant wind damage. Damage from tidal surge is also possible. Inland flooding could also occur due to heavy rainfall.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Central Gulf of Mexico: The first squalls may reach the deepwater lease areas south of Louisiana by noon on Thursday, though they may not reach the waters offshore southeast Louisiana in the Mississippi Canyon area until Thursday evening. Outer squalls may reach as far west as the Alaminos Canyon and East Breaks leases Thursday afternoon, and the Galveston and High Island leases on Friday.
The next advisory will be issued by 3 PM CDT.
Hurricane season is especially bad this year because Trump didn’t mandate masks and enforce lockdowns. See how easy it is when you think like a ComDem?
I'm doing my part - this year we thinned part of the herd and sent them directly to the processor instead of the feedlot. I am virtue signalling that I reduced the number of cows farting methane by nearly 300 head....;)
Grand58742
10-27-20, 07:31
Not only in the Gulf which is expecting Tropical Storm Zeta to make landfall as a Hurricane tomorrow, we're dealing with an ice storm in October out here in OK. I can hear tree branches cracking and falling all over my property, making this weekend just fun times to be had by all.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.5 Copyright © 2024 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.