View Full Version : Tough Times Ahead, Media Silent...
Below is a post written by buddy of mine, owner of NutraBio (https://www.nutrabio.com/), who is producing my product (1). He and I have been discussing this topic recently, he posed that on his FB page (https://www.facebook.com/mark.glazier.52/posts/4346872975324444):
"Yesterday I received a quote for creatine mono. The cost was 3.3 times higher than back in March. Not only that, delivery wasn’t available until late July. The top mineral manufacture has an empty warehouse and currently is unable to ship any product. The story is similar with just about every raw ingredient, packaging component, machine part and so in. The supply chain continues to worsen, not just in the dietary supplement industry but in all industries. New forklifts are 39 weeks out. The company that was contracted to fit out my new warehouse could not provide pallet racking and pulled out of the deal. I went to buy a bicycle for the summer. Not a bike in the store, Specialized brand bikes were being quoted at 12 months out. A friend who owns a body shop, has customer’s cars sitting in his lot for 4 months because of a shortage of parts. Another friend with a large fastener company usually receives 40 containers in a month, now only 2-3. Every business owner I speak with tells me the same story. I find it strange that I rarely see any of this mentioned in the news and I can’t understand why. It is so widespread you would think it would make daily headlines, but the media barely whispers it. If the supply chain doesn’t correct itself soon, our economy is in for rocky times."
My thoughts/response;
"The effects of this last year are now really starting to manifest themselves in supply side issues prices going up and availability going down. Media is too busy trying to foment and maintain racial tensions and such to care about what's actually happening. Here I am just launching a new product and project, and stressing about availability and costs of raws for it. ��"
What are you all seeing/experiencing?
(1) https://www.m4carbine.net/showthread.php?226105-Alpha-Joe-Coffee-Coming-(aka-Bomb-Proof-Coffee)
Gabriel556
04-24-21, 10:52
I work for a large truck manufacturer. You can’t build emissions compliant vehicles without semiconductor sensors and you can’t fix broken trucks without semiconductor sensors that fail. I do the grocery shopping in the house and week to week, we encounter bare shelf space (in a major metropolitan area) that is so random. I stock up on what I can now because with my daughters special diet I may not have food for her the next week if I don’t plan and prep/freeze ahead.
We're seeing a continuation of excessive raw material lead times, shipping costs continue to rise, and trailers are still hard to get at times. Production demand is at a point where we build and ship. Warehouses and inventory levels are low.
My company has instituted a surcharge on all new orders to help off-set the costs. Our competition are instituting 6~20% price increases on top of the end of 2020 increases.
I work for one of the big LTL's and this is a common theme across many sectors. Seems odd because our business levels have remained steady and even increased throughout this madness.
LowSpeed_HighDrag
04-24-21, 11:43
My camper got hit by another vehicle last summer, it's been at the dealer for a year now waiting for parts with no end in sight.....
My father in law owns a big drywall business, usually doing full house builds. He said they only do patch jobs with the sheets they have on hand now because sheets are too expensive and often hard to get in bulk.
This is something I’ve been worried about and have also wondered why the media hasn’t mentioned it. Our supply chains are crumbling, along with our social unrest. Tough times ahead.
ChattanoogaPhil
04-24-21, 12:10
My son-in-law works at the GM Spring Hill plant. They recently announced a two-week shutdown because of chip supply but began production a week early. They also planned to shut down the Blazer plant in Mexico for the same reason but didn't as supply increased.
Doom and gloom sells but it rarely is an accurate predictor. We'll see.
Averageman
04-24-21, 12:25
Everyone thought, "It's just two weeks of Isolation and then we will get right back up and going, not a big deal."
Well, it was and it is and nothing will return to normal for about two years. That's what happens when you shut down an economy. Not everyone is able ready and willing to start back up at the same time. Nor will they have what you need for quite some time.
And you don't think they didn't know this when it all started?
You got duped.
Everyone thought, "It's just two weeks of Isolation and then we will get right back up and going, not a big deal."
Well, it was and it is and nothing will return to normal for about two years. That's what happens when you shut down an economy. Not everyone is able ready and willing to start back up at the same time. Nor will they have what you need for quite some time.
And you don't think they didn't know this when it all started?
You got duped.
Had the orange guy been re elected it would be 24/7 news cycle doom and gloom to make sure it happened. As is, legacy media probably been told "asked" by the Biden admin not to focus on it while making so much progress in fomenting civil unrest.
All part of the plan.
Never waste a crisis. I mean it will be ten years on, you will still be wearing your face burqas, you’ll need papers to travel, you will be taxed mercilessly, you’ll live next to the ghetto regardless of your wealth and means, and you won’t get back the basic freedoms you once took for granted once Big Tech controls and memory-holes everything not printed out or on hard copy.
This is why I keep analog stuff and sterilized Linux machines and Raspberry Pi. An Amiga if you were really ahead of the curve (frickin’ Apocalypse proof OS they had.)
I hope you guys been digging your Charlie Tunnels. You have been digging your Charlie Tunnels the past 12 years, yes?
They laughed at my Tig banks, First Editions, and VHS Collection.....
Also hope you have renewable food sources
In my AO it's labor, as in a shortage of people, people willing to work. Restaurants are booming and at the same time hurting for staff. A lawn care guy I know can't find labor even with special weekend bonuses. Says the guys he used to call don't want to work when they can collect unemployment and wuflu checks. Offices can't find receptionists or even competent book keepers.
In my AO it's labor, as in a shortage of people, people willing to work. Restaurants are booming and at the same time hurting for staff. A lawn care guy I know can't find labor even with special weekend bonuses. Says the guys he used to call don't want to work when they can collect unemployment and wuflu checks. Offices can't find receptionists or even competent book keepers.
We had tremendous labor issues earlier. 30% plus absenteeism at times. Government cheese made it easier for many to stay home. Issue now is bringing newer workers up to speed.
Coal Dragger
04-24-21, 14:00
We still have a ton of people furloughed on my RR. None of the big class 1 RR’s seem prepared, interested, or even willing to expand traffic and move more freight. Doing that would require them to abandon their beloved cost cutting and fuel conservation. Keep in mind these were pre-COVID employee and customer screwing initiatives, and will stay in place.
My employer has very grudgingly pulled a few locomotives out of storage to put back into service. Of course they were beat up trash when they were put away, and no efforts were made to fix them. So they’ll just go out and break down like they did before being removed from service.
Yeah bicycle and parts are insane hit try to get shimano parts !! And ditto lack of bikes and the LONG waits if you even get one in your size model I ride a epic evo :) also have my older road race criterium frames
Also the attack on ranchers and meat is happening big time all based on bogus making fake crap in a lab so those companies can feed humans crap and make bank on waste !
Its OK though we will soon be run by china and life will be perfect and socialisms great reset is going to happen as we know you will own nothing and be happy
OR ELSE !!!!!
everready73
04-24-21, 14:04
The company I work for had seen an 80% increase for the cost of the material we use to manufacture looking product. We have had to raise prices 10% recently and that is the only one we have done so far but it is impacting business.
This product also is seeing industry shortages, good thing we saw it coming and are gtg but it is affecting others.
I am on the product manager/sales side if things and many companies I speak with in various industries are all experiencing shortages. Ford can't keep their lines running because of parts.
We also sell somene other items and have seen huge increases and shortages in steel for drum manufacturing etc
My son-in-law works at the GM Spring Hill plant. They recently announced a two-week shutdown because of chip supply but began production a week early. They also planned to shut down the Blazer plant in Mexico for the same reason but didn't as supply increased.
Doom and gloom sells but it rarely is an accurate predictor. We'll see.
My department was trying to purchase new Tahoe police units. I was told they won’t be available until 2022 at best.
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The year long shut down won’t affect anything, every ****ing idiot about 6 months ago. You know who you are.
My primary business is hardware, lumber and building materials. Lumber prices are basically up 300% vs. March of 2020. We also rent small heavy equipment and parts are becoming hard to get. I dread a customer tearing up a machine and waiting months for parts. I am glad I purchased a new Kenworth when I did in October.
What I have noticed by quite a few online posts both here and other sites is that the law of supply and demand is no longer necessarily applicable. Sure, as mentioned in this thread supplies are getting scarce and prices rise accordingly in some sectors. However, I have read of several circumstances where a particular business has seen a drop in revenue/customers and in turn raised prices to offset the losses from lack of business. That is retarded and I hope they fail.
High demand and low supply = increased prices
Low demand and high (or normal) supply = drop in prices
Low demand and high (or normal) supply DOES NOT = increasing prices
In my area, bike shops are full, e-bikes sell very well, no shortages; same with Vespa & Yamaha scooters. Looking for a specific SUV and local dealers have limited inventory, but still available. Have been looking for medical assistants (full and part time) for about 3-4 months, nothing. People merely apply and never show up to the interview. They just wish to prove to unemployment that, yes, they are seeking employment in order to continue to qualify. Why work when the .gov provides funds so you don't have to ! My center has experienced slight difficulty in procuring medium sized gloves and 1 or 2 specific medications, but these items do get delivered within 2-3 weeks after ordering. Really nothing of consequence for me and my business. A friend who is contractor is paying 3x-4x the price of plywood and assorted building materials, other than that no real issues.
Stagflation and shrinkflation incoming, boys. Diversify your portfolios for risk-off wealth protection. Transfer paper assets for real, tangible assets.
Try to find earthmover tires...months out. And when you can’t shoe up loaders and haul trucks, quarries and construction slows way down...
Try to find earthmover tires...months out. And when you can’t shoe up loaders and haul trucks, quarries and construction slows way down...
Not to derail the thread but out of curiosity, how much does an earthmover tire go for?
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My primary business is hardware, lumber and building materials. Lumber prices are basically up 300% vs. March of 2020. We also rent small heavy equipment and parts are becoming hard to get. I dread a customer tearing up a machine and waiting months for parts. I am glad I purchased a new Kenworth when I did in October.
This. My pops runs a small wood shop, he’s having a hard time finding material now and when he does the price is through the roof.
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I've been trying to tell people about this for probably over a year now. It actually started before the pandemic when I first noticed how hard it was to get random things. Come to think of it, it started pre liquidity crises even, because I remember one of the things that was really hard to get had cheese in it, and I've been dairy free for a while now. Seems like every time we bought groceries there was something new and completely random that would be all gone for no apparent reason. We would ask the manager, who would always say they were getting as much as they could. And as soon as one thing became available, something else would randomly become scarce.
The cause is what's called "just in time" inventory. It was something that they tried back in the 50s, that has been recently reintroduced and then taken to extremes. It fundamentally revolves around the idea of trying to eliminate stock rooms altogether, which is supposed to reduce waste and labor costs. Instead of things going from stockroom to shelf, they go straight to shelf, so there's no buffer.
Now computerized logistics and faster delivery have made this more viable than in the past, but like I said they're taking it to extremes, and trying to extend it beyond the retail node back into all other nodes. They're trying to time it so that the materials are mined just as the forge needs them, and then the forge is going to crank out a billet just in time for the machine shop's order and so on. Problem is each node backwards needs more surplus, because adjusting for new demand can take years the further back you go. The root of the problem is capital. At every node in the supply chain, the managers are terrified of ordering too much, and then getting a bill at the end of the month that they can't pay because they didn't generate the sales. In a well capitalized supply chain that's to be expected, and it's no problem. You simply pull from your cash and order less of that thing the next month, allowing the excess inventory from last month to carry over, where you recoup your cash when it sells. The problem is that they're not capitalized enough to cover such miscalculations. For one thing, sure. But what if they over order ten things? Will they be able to pay their suppliers? They would rather risk losing sales from no inventory than risk putting up capital they don't have for sales that might not come.
And remember, this is taking place in every node of the supply chain. It has been sucked dry of capital, and everything is moved by pure debt. The miners are afraid to mine too much, so therefore the diesel refineries are afraid to refine too much, so the drillers are afraid to drill too much. It spreads out like ripples in all directions. The miners are afraid to mine because the forges are afraid to forge too much, because the machine shops are afraid of ordering too much stock, because the widget makers are afraid of ordering too many widgets...ultimately because the customer doesn't know if they will be able to afford the widget.
Ironically, the shortages this causes make prices go up, which only exacerbates the root of the issue, which is not enough money. So you can imagine how rising prices affects a problem caused by not enough money in the first place. I imagine this is probably what's behind the sky high ammo prices. Even though ammo is in very high demand, the raw materials are suffering from all the aforementioned problems. Brass, lead, steel, the chemicals to make the powder and primer. All that is independent from ammo demand, so you have a shortage of raw materials due to uncertain demand in other sectors, combined with high demand for the finished good in question. It's no wonder that 9mm is a buck a round.
And the overarching cause behind all of this is the government sucking the liquidity out of the economy through taxes, inflation, regulation, and general government waste. Unfortunately, the next step is for the government to start taking over management of the supply chain. As prices rise and essentials become unaffordable, more and more people will need assistance. The states won't be able to sustain those programs, meaning the federal government will have to step in. We're going to see stimulus checks with greater regularity, in addition to the already existing unemployment and student loan assistance. Within a year, I think we will more or less have UBI.
The danger this presents is that when people are confident in a regularly scheduled check, they will go out and start spending, which will increase velocity. When that happens, all the liquidity in the reserve accounts from all the QE will start trickling into circulation. It will look like a recovery at first. Biden will likely be praised as the reincarnation of FDR, and no one will stop to consider the fact that FDR didn't have government debt or huge reserves of monopoly money to deal with. They won't know there's a problem with the "recovery" until milk is $10 a gallon.
The only remaining wild card in how all this plays out is if the hyperbubble will flash crash before the reserve floodgates get opened. In my opinion, yes. The disconnect between economic activity and asset prices will in my opinion reach a breaking point before UBI becomes necessary. In fact, I see signs that it already has. I think the flash crash will actually be the catalyst that brings in UBI, which will give consumers the confidence they need to increase velocity and start off the false recovery that brings in high inflation. That could bring the supply chain to a screeching halt, causing essential commodities, namely food, to skyrocket, in an economic environment where asset prices were plummeting. I could see a situation arising briefly where people are trading Rolexes for a side of beef.
That could bring the supply chain to a screeching halt, causing essential commodities, namely food, to skyrocket, in an economic environment where asset prices were plummeting. I could see a situation arising briefly where people are trading Rolexes for a side of beef.
Welcome to Venezuela Part Deux.
Stagflation and shrinkflation incoming, boys. Diversify your portfolios for risk-off wealth protection. Transfer paper assets for real, tangible assets.
I wouldn't mind buying gold, but.....
A) I don't want to get ripped off (I'm not a metallurgist)
B) I don't want Big Brother to know I have it.
If you recall the Feds at one time outlawed the private ownership of gold under FDR and went to folks they knew had it and made them turn it over at a price .gov determined.
I wouldn't mind buying gold, but.....
A) I don't want to get ripped off (I'm not a metallurgist)
B) I don't want Big Brother to know I have it.
If you recall the Feds at one time outlawed the private ownership of gold under FDR and went to folks they knew had it and made them turn it over at a price .gov determined.
Think about it...
Few of us are gold experts. If you're wary about buying gold NOW think about when SHTF.... you gonna just accept a bit of yellow metal for some food, water fuel? Gold wont be worth jack until a rebuild starts. Food, water, coffee, cigarettes, .22 rounds, candy etc will be what's bartered if it goes belly up. Better off investing in a stock of these items. Price of one ounce of gold should buy enough food for an adult to survive almost a year. Buy a world class water filter.
Not a bad idea but not top of the list IMO. You can buy cash and carry at local coin or pawn shops. A gold testing kit is ~$50 and easy to use. Other testers even simpler. No excuse if this is what you want to do. Don't buy based on carat stamps! if you don't deal in gold some brass alloys are VERY similar and you can buy stamps for $10.....So you're right to be wary but you simply need to learn the ins and outs!
Averageman
04-25-21, 09:38
Not to derail the thread but out of curiosity, how much does an earthmover tire go for?
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I would imagine 40K and up.
Welcome to Venezuela Part Deux.
I think there are definitely parallels to be drawn, in a broader sense. The fundamental difference between us and Venezuela though is that the dollar is still the world's reserve currency, so it will likely go out with a bang. If I'm right and the flash crash hits before the melt up, the dollar should have its last heyday.
Food could very well be the exception to the rule though, just depending on how low supply is, which will depend a lot on how soon this happens. If this goes for another year or two and food is already scarce, who knows. I basically pray that the market will crash, because every day the can gets kicked down the road the consequences become more and more severe.
Buy lead before gold.
Past a certain point, it’s just metal. May as well be metal you can use.
Just remember who put you where you shall end up.
I wouldn't mind buying gold, but.....
A) I don't want to get ripped off (I'm not a metallurgist)
B) I don't want Big Brother to know I have it.
If you recall the Feds at one time outlawed the private ownership of gold under FDR and went to folks they knew had it and made them turn it over at a price .gov determined.
You can go to any coin shop and pay cash for precious metals. Bury it in the backyard. Who's going to know?
Also, it's highly unlikely the gold seizure would happen again because it was ruled illegal. It's also a little known fact that many if not most people actually did keep their gold. The threats were empty. You can even get pretty convincing fake bars on the internet, so you could just fill your safety deposit box with a few of those, bury the real stuff, then claim that you got ripped off if they ever came looking.
Truth be told, though, we have bigger things to worry about. Bail ins are at the top of that list. The IMF, Fed, Treasury, etc. have all said in no uncertain terms that there won't be another bail out, and that any future crisis will have to be solved by bail in. They specifically passed a new law in Dodd Frank after 2008 that allows the banks to convert deposits into bank stock. That's why any place you might deposit cash always, always, always pays some form of interest, even if it's just a fraction of a percent. Because that's a legal technicality that makes you an unsecured creditor with the bank, and makes you liable for their debts if they go out and make bad bets in the market. In essence, Wall Street will get theirs first.
Another looming threat is taxes. If and when the flash crash happens, the Treasury is going to need LOTS of tax money to pay the interest on the money they will have to print to keep public assistance and the inevitable UBI afloat. The only thing limiting the amount of money they can print is the amount of tax revenue they can generate to pay the debt. I'm currently trying to warn people to hide as much wealth as they possibly can by cashing in metals ETFs and buying physical, and getting crypto off exchanges and into cold storage wallets.
Speaking of crypto, that's another developing situation, that I think may be tantamount to the gold seizure of our time. They're making an all out push to regulate crypto, undoubtedly with the aim of ending anonymity, and while they're at it I suspect they're engineering the biggest pump and dump ever seen. If my guesses are correct, I think Ripple will be forced to register as a security, and in the process create case law that allows them to go after BTC. This will of course lead to class actions and probably an emergency congressional session to finally once and for all bring clear regulation to crypto, which will undoubtedly include ways to tax it to death. But in the mean time, the turmoil this will cause will likely make insiders very rich, and rob the common man of his chance to get in on the ground floor.
Not to derail the thread but out of curiosity, how much does an earthmover tire go for?
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Depends on the size/rating of course, but loader tires start at about $2000 for smaller loaders. Scrapers and haul trucks generally start around $4-5k/ tire. Big haul trucks like the 797 the tires are over $40k. That's a 400 ton payload, and almost 1.5 million pounds total, riding on 6 tires.
FromMyColdDeadHand
04-25-21, 12:39
I think the real thing is that in light of higher demand, companies aren't adding capacity. The name of the game is get your prices up. Raws are up, people are hard to hire, and cost of capital will go up. People are dropping marginal customers and going with the higher paying customers.
The GFC/08 is apt, but different. That just totally screwed logistics chains. This has too, but while the virus is natural (meh?) , the damage is man made.
People are sitting on govt money, looking at low interest rates. People have more money than things to buy- classsic inflation. Wall Street is looking to park money, so they are buying into housing. As soon as rates go up and foreclosures start back up, that realestate market is going implode faster than a Indonesian submarine. Wall Street will wall again as the dump assets faster than homeowners can react. It is a real musical chairs race, expect, the winner get out- not stay in.
thepatriot2705
04-25-21, 19:36
In my AO it's labor, as in a shortage of people, people willing to work. Restaurants are booming and at the same time hurting for staff. A lawn care guy I know can't find labor even with special weekend bonuses. Says the guys he used to call don't want to work when they can collect unemployment and wuflu checks. Offices can't find receptionists or even competent book keepers.
I’ve been going to mom and pop supply houses for wire and masonry supplies. Common theme in the trades is they can’t find good help. Hell when I worked for a concrete contractor a few years ago, the guy could not find help. His shop was in a lower income area and people rather just sit around than do hard work. Speaking of hard work, laying brick and lime mortar and plaster is about the hardest thing I’ve done (none of the historic structures could be built today with my lazy ass generation).
As for shortages, I don’t see it. Lowe’s and Home Depot have stacks of wood, plenty of wire, etc. I don’t doubt there are shortages, but I don’t believe it’s as bad as people are claiming yet
Business_Casual
04-25-21, 19:57
Trillions in printed money, of course prices will go up.
I saw these issues back in 2020:
https://www.m4carbine.net/showthread.php?221633-Martial-Law-it-is-what-it-is&p=2826114#post2826114
Trillions in printed money, of course prices will go up.
I saw these issues back in 2020:
https://www.m4carbine.net/showthread.php?221633-Martial-Law-it-is-what-it-is&p=2826114#post2826114
That's a common misconception. While it's true that the money supply has increased, the circulating money supply has actually decreased. The new money is locked up in what's referred to as a liquidity trap, and it can't enter into circulation until velocity picks up, which should in theory stimulate economic activity, leading to lending, which the mechanism by which newly created money enters into circulation.
What's causing prices to go up is a lack of supply, due to undercapitalization of the entire supply chain, causing it to break down. In short, there's an extreme shortage of money, because it's not moving.
Those who know, know to keep a very close eye on this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
When that explodes, that's the sound of the inflation train rolling into the station. Until then, the pressures will continue to be deflationary in nature, despite outward appearances to the contrary. It's also important to realize that the newly created money currently trapped in reserve accounts can be destroyed just as quickly as it was created.
thepatriot2705
04-25-21, 21:18
That's a common misconception. While it's true that the money supply has increased, the circulating money supply has actually decreased. The new money is locked up in what's referred to as a liquidity trap, and it can't enter into circulation until velocity picks up, which should in theory stimulate economic activity, leading to lending, which the mechanism by which newly created money enters into circulation.
What's causing prices to go up is a lack of supply, due to undercapitalization of the entire supply chain, causing it to break down. In short, there's an extreme shortage of money, because it's not moving.
Those who know, know to keep a very close eye on this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
When that explodes, that's the sound of the inflation train rolling into the station. Until then, the pressures will continue to be deflationary in nature, despite outward appearances to the contrary. It's also important to realize that the newly created money currently trapped in reserve accounts can be destroyed just as quickly as it was created.
I want whatever you’re smoking
I want whatever you’re smoking
Econ 101???
thepatriot2705
04-25-21, 21:27
Econ 101???
Walk into a Home Depot or Lowe’s or lumber yard and tell me what shortage. Liquidity trap? I don’t see how trillions in direct payments to citizens is a liquidity trap when they are clearly spending it. Traditional finance holds absolutely zero weight in the current environment
FromMyColdDeadHand
04-25-21, 22:01
That's a common misconception. While it's true that the money supply has increased, the circulating money supply has actually decreased. The new money is locked up in what's referred to as a liquidity trap, and it can't enter into circulation until velocity picks up, which should in theory stimulate economic activity, leading to lending, which the mechanism by which newly created money enters into circulation.
What's causing prices to go up is a lack of supply, due to undercapitalization of the entire supply chain, causing it to break down. In short, there's an extreme shortage of money, because it's not moving.
Those who know, know to keep a very close eye on this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
When that explodes, that's the sound of the inflation train rolling into the station. Until then, the pressures will continue to be deflationary in nature, despite outward appearances to the contrary. It's also important to realize that the newly created money currently trapped in reserve accounts can be destroyed just as quickly as it was created.
Yes and no. You are definitely right about the velocity of money. But there are so many new and unknowns in what we are doing that I don’t think you can rely on that. Yes there are supply chain issues, but there is just a literal metric ass load of money chasing assets. That’s why investors are buying up houses, and prices in the market are crazy. This is been going on even during the “recession“ stage of this last year. That is not supply chain driven. The majority of the money from the great financial crisis flowed into financial instruments and institutions which helped boy financial asset prices. This time is different. We’re shoving trillions down low in the Economy and you can see the effects on real world goods.
We are like a fighter pilot that has been trading altitude for speed and now we are bumping up against the floor.
I think this is also a harbinger for things to come as the population expansion slows and eventually goes to neutral and then we start to actually have declining populations. I think that’s going to happen sooner and the effects will be felt faster than most people think.
Walk into a Home Depot or Lowe’s or lumber yard and tell me what shortage. Liquidity trap? I don’t see how trillions in direct payments to citizens is a liquidity trap when they are clearly spending it. Traditional finance holds absolutely zero weight in the current environment
You're unwittingly parroting common misconceptions and erroneous facts being spread on YouTube by amateur Austrian economists who, despite meaning well, aren't correct about the fine details, which is where the devil always lies of course.
For example, they clearly aren't spending it. At least not in ways that stimulate the economy. Those who are spending it are spending it on essentials they would have bought anyways. Most are saving it. Precious few are spending it frivolously.
This is an indisputable fact, proven by solid data all around: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT
Now compare that with velocity during the same time periods: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
Now take a look at labor participation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
Notice these are simply the culmination of a declining trend since the late 90s.
Don't get me wrong, the threat of hyperinflation is extremely real, but it's not here yet, and a flash crash of the everything hyperbubble is highly likely prior to hyperinflation setting in. Price increases we're seeing currently are 100% due to supply side issues, not actual increases in circulating M2 money supply. You mentioned housing for example, as it relates to lumber prices right now. There's a shortage of housing because of low interest rates, combined with moratoriums on evictions and foreclosures, which is preventing new supply from entering the market, and also price discovery. It's also due to speculation by investors who are erroneously under the impression that hyperinflation has set in.
Inflation could hypothetically set in at any time, I will admit to that. Think of it like potential energy, like a boulder on a hillside. It takes a relatively small force to release the energy. Velocity is that external force. If and when people start spending normally again, that will stimulate economic growth. Businesses will expand their inventory, new businesses will open, and all that will require loans from banks, which will start moving the new money out of reserve accounts into circulation. The newly circulating money will stimulate even more growth, which in turn stimulates yet more, and so on and so forth.
The trick is to get people spending, and that's an extremely difficult thing to do. For one, you can't get them to spend money they don't have. And you can't create jobs, or force employers to pay more than they have, because ultimately you can't force consumers to spend more. They will try, but all it will accomplish is further stifling spending, which will lead to more job loss and business closure.
The one and only thing the government can do that can possibly stimulate spending is to unload so much free money that people have no choice but to spend it. In other words, full on UBI. Once people are assured that they will get a regularly scheduled check for a certain amount for the foreseeable future, that's when they will no longer have any incentive to save.
How this plays out will depend on the intentions of our politicians and the private interests who control them. They are 100% in control. If a 10 year depression is what they want, they will make it happen. If hyperinflation is what they want, they can make that happen, too. I firmly believe they will crash the hyperbubble prior to causing hyperinflation, because that's what I would do if I were trying to destroy the private wealth in this country, which I believe to be their ultimate agenda. Not being an evil genius myself, though, it's possible and even likely there are even more nefarious options I haven't considered yet.
thepatriot2705
04-25-21, 22:33
You're unwittingly parroting common misconceptions and erroneous facts being spread on YouTube by amateur Austrian economists who, despite meaning well, aren't correct about the fine details, which is where the devil always lies of course.
For example, they clearly aren't spending it. At least not in ways that stimulate the economy. Those who are spending it are spending it on essentials they would have bought anyways. Most are saving it. Precious few are spending it frivolously.
This is an indisputable fact, proven by solid data all around: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT
Now compare that with velocity during the same time periods: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
Now take a look at labor participation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
Notice these are simply the culmination of a declining trend since the late 90s.
Don't get me wrong, the threat of hyperinflation is extremely real, but it's not here yet, and a flash crash of the everything hyperbubble is highly likely prior to hyperinflation setting in. Price increases we're seeing currently are 100% due to supply side issues, not actual increases in circulating M2 money supply. You mentioned housing for example, as it relates to lumber prices right now. There's a shortage of housing because of low interest rates, combined with moratoriums on evictions and foreclosures, which is preventing new supply from entering the market, and also price discovery. It's also due to speculation by investors who are erroneously under the impression that hyperinflation has set in.
Inflation could hypothetically set in at any time, I will admit to that. Think of it like potential energy, like a boulder on a hillside. It takes a relatively small force to release the energy. Velocity is that external force. If and when people start spending normally again, that will stimulate economic growth. Businesses will expand their inventory, new businesses will open, and all that will require loans from banks, which will start moving the new money out of reserve accounts into circulation. The newly circulating money will stimulate even more growth, which in turn stimulates yet more, and so on and so forth.
The trick is to get people spending, and that's an extremely difficult thing to do. For one, you can't get them to spend money they don't have. And you can't create jobs, or force employers to pay more than they have, because ultimately you can't force consumers to spend more. They will try, but all it will accomplish is further stifling spending, which will lead to more job loss and business closure.
The one and only thing the government can do that can possibly stimulate spending is to unload so much free money that people have no choice but to spend it. In other words, full on UBI. Once people are assured that they will get a regularly scheduled check for a certain amount for the foreseeable future, that's when they will no longer have any incentive to save.
How this plays out will depend on the intentions of our politicians and the private interests who control them. They are 100% in control. If a 10 year depression is what they want, they will make it happen. If hyperinflation is what they want, they can make that happen, too. I firmly believe they will crash the hyperbubble prior to causing hyperinflation, because that's what I would do if I were trying to destroy the private wealth in this country, which I believe to be their ultimate agenda. Not being an evil genius myself, though, it's possible and even likely there are even more nefarious options I haven't considered yet.
Yea, your fancy graphs from the feds do nothing for me. Those fools claim inflation is low. Look at the prices of commodities...all I need to know. There is the real world and then there are economic models. As far as I’m concerned, the fed reserve, bankers, Wall Street and the whole damn financial system are crooked to the core. I don’t believe a word any talking head spews. I’m in a Lowe’s or Home Depot multiple times a week. Not once during the scamdemic did they run out of what I needed
Straight Shooter
04-25-21, 22:48
Just saw this thread..let me tell yall what IM seeing/experiencing.
I work for a major player in the ATV/UTV industry. We worked 24/7/365 almost all of last year to keep up with demand and still were thousands behind.
Coming into this year...we've had already 4-5 hiring events ,including one a week ago. These are hired, on the spot, full time, with benefits, in the $16 an hour or more range.
CANNOT find people to fill the jobs. Im off tonight instead of working because not enough people showed up to work this weekend for my dept. to work. They fire as many as they hire for
attendence, laziness, attitude, ect. Plus, we are too, experiancing parts shortages. But the employee problems are the worst. As far as Ive heard, and can tell, the issue is widespread in this area.
EVERWHERE is hiring here in the Huntsville/Madison area of Alabama. All the fast food joints, which cant even open early or stay open late due to no one wants to work those hours, all the major factories, including the brand new Toyota plant, are hiring right now and cant fill the positions or keep people.
We are in some kind of societal/economic nightmare when these good jobs cant be filled & kept filled. WTF is going on? Ive noticed that all us older workers always show up, always on time, always ready to work..while those in their late teens/early twenties are right the opposite. What is is with these worthless bums?
HOW is our economy going to continue in the next 5-10 years, or less, when these no count bums all mooch of the unemployment/disability system?
They cut into MY pocket tonight. MY money. This stuff just cannot go on without some form of economic consequence.
Straight Shooter
04-25-21, 22:51
All part of the plan.
Never waste a crisis. I mean it will be ten years on, you will still be wearing your face burqas, you’ll need papers to travel, you will be taxed mercilessly, you’ll live next to the ghetto regardless of your wealth and means, and you won’t get back the basic freedoms you once took for granted once Big Tech controls and memory-holes everything not printed out or on hard copy.
This is why I keep analog stuff and sterilized Linux machines and Raspberry Pi. An Amiga if you were really ahead of the curve (frickin’ Apocalypse proof OS they had.)
I hope you guys been digging your Charlie Tunnels. You have been digging your Charlie Tunnels the past 12 years, yes?
They laughed at my Tig banks, First Editions, and VHS Collection.....
Also hope you have renewable food sources
At one time, not long ago either...I dismissed a lot of your "rants".
I dont anymore.
Yea, your fancy graphs from the feds do nothing for me. Those fools claim inflation is low. Look at the prices of commodities...all I need to know. There is the real world and then there are economic models. As far as I’m concerned, the fed reserve, bankers, Wall Street and the whole damn financial system are crooked to the core. I don’t believe a word any talking head spews. I’m in a Lowe’s or Home Depot multiple times a week. Not once during the scamdemic did they run out of what I needed
A fool is anyone who doesn't heed the warnings contained in those "fancy" graphs. The officials at the fed aren't fools, they are evil geniuses who work for even bigger evil geniuses.
Inflation of the money supply is high, but the part you're missing is the M2 velocity, because you fundamentally don't understand how new money is created, because you're operating from the often quoted misconception that the fed has a printing press. The fed CANNOT print money, period. They are merely a clearing house, with very little actual control over anything, least of all the circulating money supply.
The inflation you're talking about is happening through something called open market operations, which is for all intents and purposes the same thing as QE (as far as this explanation goes you can consider those to be the same thing). The fed acts as a clearing house only, never forget that. They buy bonds (and now other assets) from banks, and in return the banks get ones and zeros deposited into their fed account. That's what is meant when people talk about bank reserves. When the fed sells those assets through normalization, that money disappears back into the aether from whence it came.
New money is created solely by the treasury, and it can only enter into circulation in two ways. Through lending, or through direct payments by the treasury to consumers. So far, direct payments haven't been anywhere near enough to increase velocity. Moreover, they have been irregular, with each one threatening to be the last. This has caused them to have the opposite effect. They are merely helping to prevent homelessness and starvation, nothing more. They are in no way stimulating any real economic growth. The only inflation they have caused is in the price of GME and Dogecoin.
Again, the only thing you need to know is that new money can only be created through lending activity from banks. If the banks aren't lending, no new money can be created. It just piles up at the fed, and like I said before it can be destroyed just as quickly as it was created. It has zero to do with the kind of inflation we're talking about here.
Here's the proof that lending is down, which makes inflation of circulating money impossible: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=GDPC1,
If you don't believe me, watch some youtube tutorials on how new money is created. It absolutely cannot happen without lending, or, eventually, massive and frequent direct payments from the Treasury.
Fears of inflation aren't unwarranted, though, and it's something to keep an eye on. Watch velocity, lending, and direct payments. When you see the government talking about regularly scheduled stimulus payments, that's when it's time to get your hackles up.
The immediate worry is a flash crash resulting in bail ins, and without a serious uptick in lending and velocity (or direct payments), that will continue to be the greatest threat.
Coal Dragger
04-25-21, 23:29
Just saw this thread..let me tell yall what IM seeing/experiencing.
I work for a major player in the ATV/UTV industry. We worked 24/7/365 almost all of last year to keep up with demand and still were thousands behind.
Coming into this year...we've had already 4-5 hiring events ,including one a week ago. These are hired, on the spot, full time, with benefits, in the $16 an hour or more range.
CANNOT find people to fill the jobs. Im off tonight instead of working because not enough people showed up to work this weekend for my dept. to work. They fire as many as they hire for
attendence, laziness, attitude, ect. Plus, we are too, experiancing parts shortages. But the employee problems are the worst. As far as Ive heard, and can tell, the issue is widespread in this area.
EVERWHERE is hiring here in the Huntsville/Madison area of Alabama. All the fast food joints, which cant even open early or stay open late due to no one wants to work those hours, all the major factories, including the brand new Toyota plant, are hiring right now and cant fill the positions or keep people.
We are in some kind of societal/economic nightmare when these good jobs cant be filled & kept filled. WTF is going on? Ive noticed that all us older workers always show up, always on time, always ready to work..while those in their late teens/early twenties are right the opposite. What is is with these worthless bums?
HOW is our economy going to continue in the next 5-10 years, or less, when these no count bums all mooch of the unemployment/disability system?
They cut into MY pocket tonight. MY money. This stuff just cannot go on without some form of economic consequence.
Outside of my employer, which hates its employees and actively tries to make coming to work as miserable as possible, most places in SD are busy and hiring. Worker shortage for sure. Extended unemployment benefits are not helping, but neither are employers nationwide.
Sorry businesses but the price floor for labor has gone up, and a lot of the new generation of workers are not willing to put up with a lot of employer policies. So employers are either going to have to adapt, automate, or hire poor candidates who have maybe no other choice in employment.
The last couple of attempts my employer made to hire locally a few years ago they couldn’t fill the hiring class. For a job that will pay $80-$100K (depending on much you want to work) per year or more, before factoring in benefits. They can’t seem to find a lot of people willing to put up with their bullshit. The ones who do hire get furloughed right off the bat and either don’t come back, or learn to live on nothing, and when they do come back don’t kill themselves taking every trip. I have zero sympathy for my company and their self inflicted staffing issues. Or most others for that matter. Figure out how to attract, motivate, and retain good employees or choose to save that money and deal with staffing issues. It’s a choice, just don’t cry to me about making it.
Straight Shooter
04-25-21, 23:37
I literally just read an article on a McDonalds in FL paying $50 for people JUST TO SHOW UP for their interview.
I literally just read an article on a McDonalds in FL paying $50 for people JUST TO SHOW UP for their interview.
While that's not indicative of most places, there are a lot of reasons why the labor market is so bad right now. It stems from two generations of kids who all got trophies, but it's way more than that. On top of the lack of life skills, an alarmingly high percentage of the younger workers have drug abuse and mental health problems, so you're already starting with a shrinking pool of workers for that type of job to begin with.
On top of that, most people are now looking for work from home or gig jobs now. Many if not most have already been through the unemployment line at least once in the last year, so traditional jobs might seem like too much commitment to be worth the effort. I can actually sympathize with that to a certain degree. When I was working those kinds of jobs back in college, just as soon as you would start a job and you thought you had everything worked out, the hours would change, the place would change ownership or go out of business, etc. The reason these places have such high turnover isn't the workers' faults, it's the incredibly disorganized, outright hostile attitude of the employers themselves, and the absolute apathy they have when it comes to how their decisions impact the job quality. They dehumanize their employees on purpose and hire psychopathic managers who meet quotas at the cost of the overall sustainability with the current labor pool. In other words, they consume people as a renewable resource. They hire a fresh employee, get whatever they can out of them, and then toss them aside after six months to a few years. In order to maintain jobs like that you have to basically devote yourself to them heart, body, and soul. You have to be willing to work whenever, wherever, with zero notice because of their chaotic, disorganized systems. People in school, people with kids, etc. can't be that flexible. In other words, anyone with any commitments outside that single job need not plan to be there very long, because they won't be unless they're willing to sacrifice all other commitments to keep the job.
Probably the main thing they do that hurts them most of all is they try to hire all part time employees. This results in the average minimum wage employee needing at least two jobs to make ends meet. To be fair, the government is mostly responsible for that one, but the aforementioned chaotic, disorganized scheduling doesn't help their case. So these employees get caught up in this constant merry go round where they're forced to change employers every few months whenever a scheduling conflict arises.
And that leads us to the boomers. Have you noticed how many seniors are now working minimum wage jobs? The boomers are a perfect fit, because they have no commitments, and they not only can work part time they must work part time to keep their social security. And they're good workers! So the boomers have many natural advantages over the younger workers who would traditionally fill those jobs, which is why the national chains aren't changing their practices. Why hire a full time millennial and pay them benefits when you can hire two part time boomers who have government benefits and who are nothing if not flexible in their hours. Ditto for recent grads and childless housewives.
And now on top of all that, the government is getting dangerously close to paying people not to work. All of the ordinary commitments that people had, that required them to work, have been put on hold. And if they did go out and get a job, they would have to start paying those commitments again, meaning the job could actually be the catalyst at this point that launches them into homelessness. I think we would all be amazed by how many people now fall into that category, where working minimum wage has become basically impossible for them.
Oh boy, more “millennial” hate. Your average Millennial is well into their mid to late 30s now. They aren’t the problem.
“Them goddamn young people used to getting a trophy just for showing up” —- Who is giving those trophies? Who started it? Who thought it was a good idea? Not the kids.
“These goddamn millennials want retirement, healthcare, and a living wage. F that I’ll hire a Mexican. They work harder....and cheaper!”
—-The irony is delicious.
“Boomers are the dying breed coming out of retirement to save us by working past retirement. They are the real heroes” —-Old people who planned poorly are great for me to pad my stats and I can fire them any time I want.
They donÂ’t want unionized labor, they donÂ’t want workforce homogeneity. They are rewriting Upton SinclairÂ’s The Jungle 2.0 and de-fictionalizing it. This is why Big Tech is predominantly left coast homosexual and East Indian. Cheap labor, no pushback, free pursuit of an agenda.
This is where I yet again call America a whorehouse.
Know who doesnÂ’t waste time on gay crap and black BS? The Red Chinese.
They are walking the dog, expanding their middle class, and has Western Europe more in line than we do.
Do I have a solution? I do. But it involves a total revolutionary society involving the killing of all the bankers and lawyers, undisturbed isolation, and forcible deportations on an unprecedented level.
We made ourselves too available. It hasnÂ’t worked out.
Hiring is a nightmare right now on both sides. It is a real challenge to find people willing to show up, work and learn. If I do find a good one our senior leadership treats the staff like an office supply: If they break you they will throw you in the trash and buy another one.
What perfect timing for Uncle Joe to open the borders. Can't get an American to work low paying jobs? Keep paying them unemployment and just import laborers. Hell, you don't even have to transport them to our country, they will just show up.
Its almost like it was planned. Hmm plan, plandemic.
SS is spot on with the labor situation here in N Alabama.
Andy
ChattanoogaPhil
04-26-21, 07:24
The price and availability of labor vs automation is at a tipping point. Everything from driverless trucks to retail sales... automation will soon be replacing labor at a much faster pace than we've seen in recent years.
Straight Shooter
04-26-21, 07:38
The price of labor vs automation is at a tipping point. Everything from driverless trucks to retail sales will soon be replacing labor at a very fast pace.
100% AGREE brother...but at some point, you STILL gotta have someone to screw the bolts, set up the machines, weld the steel, troubleshoot & repair, ect ect.
One day, this boom is gonna end, all over, finito. People will be once more- begging for work, the same ones now who wont. And Ill bet an RC & Moon Pie..wages will, at THAT point, go down
all these opportunities will have been lost. and I wont pity ANY of them.
Straight Shooter
04-26-21, 07:40
What perfect timing for Uncle Joe to open the borders. Can't get an American to work low paying jobs? Keep paying them unemployment and just import laborers. Hell, you don't even have to transport them to our country, they will just show up.
Its almost like it was planned. Hmm plan, plandemic.
SS is spot on with the labor situation here in N Alabama.
Andy
Thank you Andy...and YOU TOO are 100% correct. We've been HAD, & big time. The rat race? Its OVER...and the rats won.
Just saw this thread..let me tell yall what IM seeing/experiencing.
I work for a major player in the ATV/UTV industry. We worked 24/7/365 almost all of last year to keep up with demand and still were thousands behind.
Coming into this year...we've had already 4-5 hiring events ,including one a week ago. These are hired, on the spot, full time, with benefits, in the $16 an hour or more range.
CANNOT find people to fill the jobs. Im off tonight instead of working because not enough people showed up to work this weekend for my dept. to work. They fire as many as they hire for
attendence, laziness, attitude, ect. Plus, we are too, experiancing parts shortages. But the employee problems are the worst. As far as Ive heard, and can tell, the issue is widespread in this area.
EVERWHERE is hiring here in the Huntsville/Madison area of Alabama. All the fast food joints, which cant even open early or stay open late due to no one wants to work those hours, all the major factories, including the brand new Toyota plant, are hiring right now and cant fill the positions or keep people.
We are in some kind of societal/economic nightmare when these good jobs cant be filled & kept filled. WTF is going on? Ive noticed that all us older workers always show up, always on time, always ready to work..while those in their late teens/early twenties are right the opposite. What is is with these worthless bums?
HOW is our economy going to continue in the next 5-10 years, or less, when these no count bums all mooch of the unemployment/disability system?
They cut into MY pocket tonight. MY money. This stuff just cannot go on without some form of economic consequence.I'm seeing the same thing. Everywhere I look there's help wanted signs. Many of the signs state "for all shifts" or "for all positions". So they're not just looking to replace that one person who moved on.
I'm not seeing any supply chain problems for my little part of the world. Grocery stores are stocked I don't see any sections of the store or shelves empty where a specific product might have been. For work ....my one Peterbilt broke down on the west coast a few weeks ago and was fixed within a few days. My other Peterbilt came back last weekend with AC not working. By Wednesday a new compressor was ordered and installed.
Last year we were supposed to have a huge meat supply disruption. When gas prices fell in the summer my friend went off about some new doom and gloom that was around the corner because of the sharp fall of the gas prices. Neither happened. I believe we were supposed to turn into a Mad Max back in 2008 as well?!?
Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk
I literally just read an article on a McDonalds in FL paying $50 for people JUST TO SHOW UP for their interview.Wawa (like 7/11) here is paying $500 sign on bonus! Imagine 7/11 paying $500 just to hire someone!!!!
Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk
Gabriel556
04-26-21, 10:26
I saw the same thing in Kentucky this spring. Local gas stations on a fuel stop offered $500 bonus after 6 months. In Pigeon Forge, restaurants were closing at 7pm due to no workforce. Everything was a huge wait (1 hour to pick up an online coffee order from Dunkin). We waited 90 minutes for “fast” food multiple times because sit down restaurants had 2-3 hour waits, no reservations. Everybody was hiring and one guy I talked to that owned an attraction said he can’t get anyone to come in for $15 an hour to monitor a ride.
You can’t keep a restaurant open 4 hours a day and make it, nor can you sustain customers if it’s a 4 hour wait into an attraction.
I have a recall on my truck and I called to see about trying out an F250 while the recall was being done. They have 2 in inventory, a dump truck and a plow truck. That’s it.
My wife ordered a piano 2 months ago, and the store supposedly had one already in transit for their inventory. It’s currently sitting on a boat outside Los Angeles waiting to come to port (for weeks now).
I hope I don’t break anything on my tractors this spring because John Deere is short on consumable and maintenance parts.
Pacific5th
04-26-21, 21:15
We still have a ton of people furloughed on my RR. None of the big class 1 RR’s seem prepared, interested, or even willing to expand traffic and move more freight. Doing that would require them to abandon their beloved cost cutting and fuel conservation. Keep in mind these were pre-COVID employee and customer screwing initiatives, and will stay in place.
My employer has very grudgingly pulled a few locomotives out of storage to put back into service. Of course they were beat up trash when they were put away, and no efforts were made to fix them. So they’ll just go out and break down like they did before being removed from service.
Up in the Northwest Division were parking trains in sidings and taking the power into terminals to get enough engines to get trains already there up the mountain. The big clarification terminal has been constiantly short of power. They furloughed way to many guys last year and cut way to many jobs then panicked when things picked up just a bit. Then they clamped down on our availability and did the high impact day crap, like it’s our fault there so screwed up. I don’t know that there is any TY&E in the area that gives a rats ass anymore, we all just go on our day trying to not get in trouble and laugh and watch things fall apart.
I saw the same thing in Kentucky this spring. Local gas stations on a fuel stop offered $500 bonus after 6 months. In Pigeon Forge, restaurants were closing at 7pm due to no workforce. Everything was a huge wait (1 hour to pick up an online coffee order from Dunkin). We waited 90 minutes for “fast” food multiple times because sit down restaurants had 2-3 hour waits, no reservations. Everybody was hiring and one guy I talked to that owned an attraction said he can’t get anyone to come in for $15 an hour to monitor a ride.
You can’t keep a restaurant open 4 hours a day and make it, nor can you sustain customers if it’s a 4 hour wait into an attraction.
I have a recall on my truck and I called to see about trying out an F250 while the recall was being done. They have 2 in inventory, a dump truck and a plow truck. That’s it.
My wife ordered a piano 2 months ago, and the store supposedly had one already in transit for their inventory. It’s currently sitting on a boat outside Los Angeles waiting to come to port (for weeks now).
I hope I don’t break anything on my tractors this spring because John Deere is short on consumable and maintenance parts.
I know farmers RFN that cannot get tires or tracks for their tractors. They are unable to plant, the tractors are literally parked. The shortages are real.
Coal Dragger
04-26-21, 21:41
Up in the Northwest Division were parking trains in sidings and taking the power into terminals to get enough engines to get trains already there up the mountain. The big clarification terminal has been constiantly short of power. They furloughed way to many guys last year and cut way to many jobs then panicked when things picked up just a bit. Then they clamped down on our availability and did the high impact day crap, like it’s our fault there so screwed up. I don’t know that there is any TY&E in the area that gives a rats ass anymore, we all just go on our day trying to not get in trouble and laugh and watch things fall apart.
LOL. Then they’ll blame TY&E.
Even our local TM and RFE have had enough of this bullshit. Off to a great start for the year with our new CEO three deaths, plenty of injuries, and one terminal building that caught on fire and got flooded. Their response so far: blame the employees.
Yes and no. You are definitely right about the velocity of money. But there are so many new and unknowns in what we are doing that I don’t think you can rely on that. Yes there are supply chain issues, but there is just a literal metric ass load of money chasing assets. That’s why investors are buying up houses, and prices in the market are crazy. This is been going on even during the “recession“ stage of this last year. That is not supply chain driven. The majority of the money from the great financial crisis flowed into financial instruments and institutions which helped boy financial asset prices. This time is different. We’re shoving trillions down low in the Economy and you can see the effects on real world goods.
We are like a fighter pilot that has been trading altitude for speed and now we are bumping up against the floor.
I think this is also a harbinger for things to come as the population expansion slows and eventually goes to neutral and then we start to actually have declining populations. I think that’s going to happen sooner and the effects will be felt faster than most people think.
I don't know, it's really hard to argue with velocity data. Explaining the hyper-everything-bubble is difficult, though. It's a mania if you ask me. Kind of like the mania that occasionally surrounds things like Beanie Babies, but now it's just gone full bore.
I think derivatives are the root of the problem. The stock market has turned into a giant casino. It's no longer based on real valuations or growth, or even growth potential. It's just amped up trading volume that's secondary to the bets that get made overnight. And these people will bet on anything, no matter how far removed from reality it is.
And then you have the bots. Active investors are fleeing in droves, and the bots are taking over. So what we're left with is mostly bots, all making bets based on the same data streams. And you have all these new investors, the Robinhood traders, who the bots are just eating alive. When they run out of fresh victims, though, and it's just a bunch of bots all trading in their own little echo chamber...well, you can see how that will have to end.
FromMyColdDeadHand
04-27-21, 01:13
I don't know, it's really hard to argue with velocity data. Explaining the hyper-everything-bubble is difficult, though. It's a mania if you ask me. Kind of like the mania that occasionally surrounds things like Beanie Babies, but now it's just gone full bore.
I think derivatives are the root of the problem. The stock market has turned into a giant casino. It's no longer based on real valuations or growth, or even growth potential. It's just amped up trading volume that's secondary to the bets that get made overnight. And these people will bet on anything, no matter how far removed from reality it is.
And then you have the bots. Active investors are fleeing in droves, and the bots are taking over. So what we're left with is mostly bots, all making bets based on the same data streams. And you have all these new investors, the Robinhood traders, who the bots are just eating alive. When they run out of fresh victims, though, and it's just a bunch of bots all trading in their own little echo chamber...well, you can see how that will have to end.
If teh money added were 'living' in financial instruments or high end homes (like $5m +), it wouldn't show up in the velocity numbers, right? If anything, as more dollars flowed around those circles, they would drive the overall velocity number down, since more dollar s moving 'slowly'. I've called it 'rich people inflation'- housing never went down in the resort areas in CO during and after the GFC. All this cheap money has buiilt all these tech and media companies.
But you are starting to pour that money into people's hands that have a greater propensity to spend it. Yes, supply is down- but the number of people with cash in their pockets- fed money, not paying rent, is starting to get significant. So, yea, less things to spend money on overall, and tighter supply of goods due to supply chain. I tried buying a car over the past 9 months.... yes, supply was tight, but in the middle of a global pandemic and sharpest drop in GDP ever, people were basically throwing money at dealers... Lack of foreclosures and lack of buidling supplies doesn't explain all the increase in housing prices.
I whole heartedly agree on the derivatives. Not in the casino sense, but in the leverage sense. 'Finance' should never be a major part of a well functioning economy. It should be an efficient way to apply capital to supply-demand markets. We are a looooong way away from that. Derivatives have gone from a way to hedge risk to being a main source of revenue. That's crazy. Maybe the casino/gambling is apt in that it is like betting on the outcome of cockfights- or betting on who is going to win at the poker table, or worse blackjack table. There is one thing for a blackjack player to buy 'insurance' on a hand he is playing, but we are now having 3rd party people behind the players at the table betting 10x, or more, what is in play on the table. That doesn't do anything to help the efficiency of the funding apparatus of the market.
But what do I know. Oh, actually how to make, market, and sell things- real things. How quaint....
If teh money added were 'living' in financial instruments or high end homes (like $5m +), it wouldn't show up in the velocity numbers, right? If anything, as more dollars flowed around those circles, they would drive the overall velocity number down, since more dollar s moving 'slowly'. I've called it 'rich people inflation'- housing never went down in the resort areas in CO during and after the GFC. All this cheap money has buiilt all these tech and media companies.
But you are starting to pour that money into people's hands that have a greater propensity to spend it. Yes, supply is down- but the number of people with cash in their pockets- fed money, not paying rent, is starting to get significant. So, yea, less things to spend money on overall, and tighter supply of goods due to supply chain. I tried buying a car over the past 9 months.... yes, supply was tight, but in the middle of a global pandemic and sharpest drop in GDP ever, people were basically throwing money at dealers... Lack of foreclosures and lack of buidling supplies doesn't explain all the increase in housing prices.
I whole heartedly agree on the derivatives. Not in the casino sense, but in the leverage sense. 'Finance' should never be a major part of a well functioning economy. It should be an efficient way to apply capital to supply-demand markets. We are a looooong way away from that. Derivatives have gone from a way to hedge risk to being a main source of revenue. That's crazy. Maybe the casino/gambling is apt in that it is like betting on the outcome of cockfights- or betting on who is going to win at the poker table, or worse blackjack table. There is one thing for a blackjack player to buy 'insurance' on a hand he is playing, but we are now having 3rd party people behind the players at the table betting 10x, or more, what is in play on the table. That doesn't do anything to help the efficiency of the funding apparatus of the market.
But what do I know. Oh, actually how to make, market, and sell things- real things. How quaint....
The derivatives market is like a race track where 60% of the people betting are robots just filling the seats, 75% the horses are dead on the track, 20% are limping along and obviously won't make it, 3% are giving it a good go, and 2% are neck and neck for the finish line.
The 40% real people left are getting disgusted and going home, and every time one does the management puts out another robot to take their place. The robots don't know most of the horses are dead, because all they can do is pull information from the overheads, which fail to mention that they aren't moving. All the robots and non present betters know is the relative position of the dead horses. They aren't being told and have no way of knowing that they're down and aren't getting back up. And of course the robots have no concept of death; they can only conceive of relative position and quantify news generated from the non present betters, who also have no clue. Again, though, the seasoned betters who are on the ground seeing what's going on are leaving.
The continued operation of the racetrack depends on the general public never finding out what's really going on, and that's getting harder by the day, because they need the active betters on the ground to keep the spread and keep the bots in check. The bots need them, too, because the odds fed to them are generated from the activity of the active bets.
ChattanoogaPhil
04-27-21, 07:33
Truckers are a good bellwether for economic activity. United Parcel Service reported Q1 results this morning. Crushed expectations.
UPS Posts Higher Quarterly Revenue, Boosted by Small Businesses
Package-delivery firm’s sales jump 27% to $22.91 billion, helped by its supply-chain and freight segment, up 34%. International revenue rose 36% to $4.61 billion, led by Asia and Europe.
Truckers are a good bellwether for economic activity. United Parcel Service reported Q1 results this morning. Crushed expectations.
UPS Posts Higher Quarterly Revenue, Boosted by Small Businesses
Package-delivery firm’s sales jump 27% to $22.91 billion, helped by its supply-chain and freight segment, up 34%. International revenue rose 36% to $4.61 billion, led by Asia and Europe.
I'd be a lot more excited if they just didn't break or lose half my shit. Hate that company.
Truckers are a good bellwether for economic activity. United Parcel Service reported Q1 results this morning. Crushed expectations.
UPS Posts Higher Quarterly Revenue, Boosted by Small Businesses
Package-delivery firm’s sales jump 27% to $22.91 billion, helped by its supply-chain and freight segment, up 34%. International revenue rose 36% to $4.61 billion, led by Asia and Europe.
That's not at all surprising with all the mail order shopping. 1 in 3 retail stores is gone and never coming back.
Truckers are a good bellwether for economic activity. United Parcel Service reported Q1 results this morning. Crushed expectations.
UPS Posts Higher Quarterly Revenue, Boosted by Small Businesses
Package-delivery firm’s sales jump 27% to $22.91 billion, helped by its supply-chain and freight segment, up 34%. International revenue rose 36% to $4.61 billion, led by Asia and Europe.
UPS et al is pretty well tied in with Amazon and obviously home shopping has increased.
I make and sell hand made turquoise jewelry. All 100% USA made by ME! My revenue is down 5% BUT sales up 1%. Revenue down as I've had 2 mega sales to fund for gem shows which were delayed this year. Sellers are doing great! Recent Tucson gem show while delayed and smaller was well received.
If there's anything LESS essential than jewelry I have no clue what that is so the idea I'm doing well is a good indication. Last year I made over $100K.....on jewelry and just off that pace today...
I think a lot of people will figure their 2015 bicycle is just fine and not have to have latest and greatest. Mines a 1995 and still rocks! My Mac is a 2015 and no plans to upgrade!
I think a LOT of businesses are getting what they deserve with their greed of moving off shore. Few if ANY reduced prices and we suffered reduced quality while their profits rose. F 'em!
Perfect time to invest in bringing back USA jobs! No time like now than to double down and dig deep to support USA businesses that work in USA!
UPS Freight on the other hand lost 3.3 billion and UPS sold it to Transforce.
Truckers are a good bellwether for economic activity. United Parcel Service reported Q1 results this morning. Crushed expectations.
UPS Posts Higher Quarterly Revenue, Boosted by Small Businesses
Package-delivery firm’s sales jump 27% to $22.91 billion, helped by its supply-chain and freight segment, up 34%. International revenue rose 36% to $4.61 billion, led by Asia and Europe.
In this "new normal" economy, that's not the bellwether it was for reasons others covered. But, there are some industries, that have benefited greatly from the covid economy being what is, and online shopping and resulting shipping is one that has benefited greatly.
robbins290
04-27-21, 12:28
Working part time as a steel project estimator. The steel business is all messed up. Can only quote steel for 1-3 days max. Prices are changing so fast. Never seen it so bad, not in the last 15 years at least.
Straight Shooter
04-27-21, 12:58
In this "new normal" economy, that's not the bellwether it was for reasons others covered. But, there are some industries, that have benefited greatly from the covid economy being what is, and online shopping and resulting shipping is one that has benefited greatly.
The outdoor recreation industry is off the charts. ATV's..UTV's, motorcycles, HIGH-end boats, just all that & more.
Met a gent about two weeks ago, that sold very high end boats...he said thay sold every boat they could make last year, up to this point this year..and the 2022 models hadnt even been announced and already had like 40+ orders for those...but like everyone was crippled by parts shortages.
This massive shortage of everything...plus the empty jobs that the lazy asses dont want to fill..will surely catch up to use very soon, & not in a good way.
The outdoor recreation industry is off the charts. ATV's..UTV's, motorcycles, HIGH-end boats, just all that & more.
Met a gent about two weeks ago, that sold very high end boats...he said thay sold every boat they could make last year, up to this point this year..and the 2022 models hadnt even been announced and already had like 40+ orders for those...but like everyone was crippled by parts shortages.
This massive shortage of everything...plus the empty jobs that the lazy asses dont want to fill..will surely catch up to use very soon, & not in a good way.
Difficulty filling positions to where it's become a legit limiting factor in biz growth started a few years ago, and became far worse with covid. There's lots of workout there that the entitled types don't want to do. It's no doubt worse in some regions/areas than others, but they are convinced they should make 6 figures for doing jack chit and the idea of starting some place and working their way up, a foreign concept.
I did so many basic jobs for basic $ I couldn't even list them all, knowing that if I wanted something more than a basic job for low $ it was on me. One of the reasons I went back to school in my mid 30s was I knew for me, that included finishing a degree.
robbins290
04-27-21, 13:47
The outdoor recreation industry is off the charts. ATV's..UTV's, motorcycles, HIGH-end boats, just all that & more.
Met a gent about two weeks ago, that sold very high end boats...he said thay sold every boat they could make last year, up to this point this year..and the 2022 models hadnt even been announced and already had like 40+ orders for those...but like everyone was crippled by parts shortages.
This massive shortage of everything...plus the empty jobs that the lazy asses dont want to fill..will surely catch up to use very soon, & not in a good way.
not even the high end boats, I have on order a Tracker pro 170. they are a year or so out. And those are pretty cheap compared to the high end boats.
not even the high end boats, I have on order a Tracker pro 170. they are a year or so out. And those are pretty cheap compared to the high end boats.
Literally anything to do with being outdoors allowing socially distancing and the like is back ordered. Waited 10 months for an ebike, and same company now telling people a year out to order now. When it finally arrived, my used ebike didn't last one day on the FB marketplace and no one even attempted to talk me down price wise.
Going in reverse, audio -video equipment also selling out as people are stuck inside. I updated my audio- vid stuff myself.
robbins290
04-27-21, 14:03
Literally anything to do with being outdoors allowing socially distancing and the like is back ordered. Waited 10 months for an ebike, and same company now telling people a year out to order now. When it finally arrived, my used ebike didn't last one day on the FB marketplace and no one even attempted to talk me down price wise.
I can see that, my old boat sold in less then 24 hours on craigslist. I could not believe how fast it sold, and it was higher then asking price.
Whiskey_Bravo
04-27-21, 14:48
The outdoor recreation industry is off the charts. ATV's..UTV's, motorcycles, HIGH-end boats, just all that & more.
Met a gent about two weeks ago, that sold very high end boats...he said thay sold every boat they could make last year, up to this point this year..and the 2022 models hadnt even been announced and already had like 40+ orders for those...but like everyone was crippled by parts shortages.
This massive shortage of everything...plus the empty jobs that the lazy asses dont want to fill..will surely catch up to use very soon, & not in a good way.
Yep. Closed on some land a while back so had been in the market for a UTV. Everybody was 6 weeks or more out. The wife and I just started calling places and found a Ranger 1000XP Texas edition that a dealer had just gotten in but not even on their website yet. We put money down over the phone and then drove there and payed for it. Picked it up two days later after they installed a couple of things. Didn't even know what to say when the guy said they had one in stock. I wasn't looking for a 100XP but I jumped on it.
Adrenaline_6
04-27-21, 14:50
RV's are also on that list.
Literally anything to do with being outdoors allowing socially distancing and the like is back ordered. Waited 10 months for an ebike, and same company now telling people a year out to order now. When it finally arrived, my used ebike didn't last one day on the FB marketplace and no one even attempted to talk me down price wise.
Going in reverse, audio -video equipment also selling out as people are stuck inside. I updated my audio- vid stuff myself.
Pools, too. We have a large aboveground, talking with the pool people as I get stuff prepped for swim season, pools are backordered and marked up as much as 50%-75%; in-ground pool construction is up over 200% since May 2020.
Straight Shooter
04-27-21, 16:55
Yep. Closed on some land a while back so had been in the market for a UTV. Everybody was 6 weeks or more out. The wife and I just started calling places and found a Ranger 1000XP Texas edition that a dealer had just gotten in but not even on their website yet. We put money down over the phone and then drove there and payed for it. Picked it up two days later after they installed a couple of things. Didn't even know what to say when the guy said they had one in stock. I wasn't looking for a 100XP but I jumped on it.
OOOH..those ARE nice...Ive built enough of them, I oughta know! you were VERY lucky to find one of those.
Literally anything to do with being outdoors allowing socially distancing and the like is back ordered. Waited 10 months for an ebike, and same company now telling people a year out to order now. When it finally arrived, my used ebike didn't last one day on the FB marketplace and no one even attempted to talk me down price wise.
Going in reverse, audio -video equipment also selling out as people are stuck inside. I updated my audio- vid stuff myself.
Which one did you get? I've been coveting a Sur Ron, but they're not legal in my state yet.
https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf
I will just leave this here.
I graduate with a Bachelors in Mechanical Engineering in a few weeks, 20+ years in the Military with an active secret security clearance, experience with CFD, FEA, smart morphing technology, and manufacturing. In the past two months I’ve had at least six phone interviews, and have applied to probably a dozen positions for each interview I’ve had so far.
So far it’s been a dry hole, most of the job postings I’ve seen want people with at least three years experience.
FromMyColdDeadHand
04-27-21, 22:47
I graduate with a Bachelors in Mechanical Engineering in a few weeks, 20+ years in the Military with an active secret security clearance, experience with CFD, FEA, smart morphing technology, and manufacturing. In the past two months I’ve had at least six phone interviews, and have applied to probably a dozen positions for each interview I’ve had so far.
So far it’s been a dry hole, most of the job postings I’ve seen want people with at least three years experience.
Well, maybe if you would study something difficult..... ;)
Where are you looking? When you say manufacturing what do you mean by that?
Well, maybe if you would study something difficult..... ;)
Where are you looking? When you say manufacturing what do you mean by that?
I did three semesters at a community college studying manual and CNC machining, also took classes on SolidWorks, AutoCAD, and GD&T. Did an internship at the Carnegie Observatory where I assisted in the creation of the Michigan Magellan Fiber System (M2FS) instrument which is down in Chile finding planets in other solar systems or determining the composition of said planets’ atmospheres.
Did a ME internship for a company last summer that designs and manufactures GPS antennas for everything from John Deere to JDAMs
I’ve been looking around Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Orange, Ventura, and Riverside Counties, basically anything within ~80 miles from home. I’m really wanting to get into aerospace but I’m not picky, heck, I’ve applied to Oakley and Louis Vuton or however you spell it.
I think my GPA of ~2.7 isn’t helping, but it’s a second bachelor degree so no BS GE classes to fluff up my GPA sand it took a few semesters to swallow my pride and accept that I needed additional help because of my TBI.
Whiskey_Bravo
04-28-21, 00:07
OOOH..those ARE nice...Ive built enough of them, I oughta know! you were VERY lucky to find one of those.
Yeah, we consider ourselves very lucky and we are very happy with our purchase so far.
FromMyColdDeadHand
04-28-21, 01:00
I did three semesters at a community college studying manual and CNC machining, also took classes on SolidWorks, AutoCAD, and GD&T. Did an internship at the Carnegie Observatory where I assisted in the creation of the Michigan Magellan Fiber System (M2FS) instrument which is down in Chile finding planets in other solar systems or determining the composition of said planets’ atmospheres.
Did a ME internship for a company last summer that designs and manufactures GPS antennas for everything from John Deere to JDAMs
I’ve been looking around Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Orange, Ventura, and Riverside Counties, basically anything within ~80 miles from home. I’m really wanting to get into aerospace but I’m not picky, heck, I’ve applied to Oakley and Louis Vuton or however you spell it.
I think my GPA of ~2.7 isn’t helping, but it’s a second bachelor degree so no BS GE classes to fluff up my GPA sand it took a few semesters to swallow my pride and accept that I needed additional help because of my TBI.
Also look at Sales and Marketing jobs that sell to engineers. After Med Schools and I came to conclusion that I'd save more lives by NOT being a doctor, I eventually parlayed my Chem degree into chemical sales.
Part of me wonders if your location may be an issue too? Huntsville is pretty cool...
Business_Casual
04-28-21, 04:52
I did three semesters at a community college studying manual and CNC machining, also took classes on SolidWorks, AutoCAD, and GD&T. Did an internship at the Carnegie Observatory where I assisted in the creation of the Michigan Magellan Fiber System (M2FS) instrument which is down in Chile finding planets in other solar systems or determining the composition of said planets’ atmospheres.
Did a ME internship for a company last summer that designs and manufactures GPS antennas for everything from John Deere to JDAMs
I’ve been looking around Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Orange, Ventura, and Riverside Counties, basically anything within ~80 miles from home. I’m really wanting to get into aerospace but I’m not picky, heck, I’ve applied to Oakley and Louis Vuton or however you spell it.
I think my GPA of ~2.7 isn’t helping, but it’s a second bachelor degree so no BS GE classes to fluff up my GPA sand it took a few semesters to swallow my pride and accept that I needed additional help because of my TBI.
Try the big fiber operators - Verizon, Zayo, ATT and Lumen.
Which one did you get? I've been coveting a Sur Ron, but they're not legal in my state yet.
I had a Rad Rover that a I sold, and got a Bolton Black Bird. Great bike for the $.
SomeOtherGuy
04-28-21, 08:29
I’ve been looking around Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Orange, Ventura, and Riverside Counties, basically anything within ~80 miles from home. I’m really wanting to get into aerospace but I’m not picky, heck, I’ve applied to Oakley and Louis Vuton or however you spell it.
Not to state the obvious but a ton of people and companies are leaving California. You might want to consider looking in Texas, especially Austin, and Colorado just for starters.
Your background should make you irresistible to certain defense contractors. But in 2021 with "wokeism" and all that, it probably makes you uninteresting to a lot of leftist mob-rule companies you don't want to be part of anyway. Just keep that in mind when focusing your efforts.
Also - guessing you're a white male. Do you have any plausible Hispanic background or characteristics whatsoever? A lot of "woke" companies are simply not hiring white males any more, regardless of qualifications and anti-discrimination laws. This was becoming an issue in parts of the health care / health insurance industry even before Trump was first elected. If you can claim any "minority" status without it being completely untrue, it could make a difference.
We all have ancestors from Africa. Just saying...
Huntsville is a solid place for engineer jobs, and I know there have been some recent significant defense contract awards.
Andy
Not to state the obvious but a ton of people and companies are leaving California. You might want to consider looking in Texas, especially Austin, and Colorado just for starters.
NC, our area specifically, is always on the top-5, top-10 list for growth for all sorts of reasons (https://www.wraltechwire.com/2020/08/04/triangle-cracks-reports-top-10-in-multiple-categories-for-economic-development/, https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2020/10/13/charlotte-among-best-places-to-live-in-new-ranking.html). Not saying he could waltz into a job here, but there are reasons a lot of people are flocking to NC (some good, many bad). There are other cities undergoing the same thing, so it's not exclusive to us.
On our end, it means our state has moved from red to purple (will not be surprised if it goes blue), the Triangle is getting more expensive, and the traffic is getting worse. Gotsta take the good with the bad.
Curious as to why you're sharing your GPA in the interview process.
SomeOtherGuy
04-28-21, 09:23
Curious as to why you're sharing your GPA in the interview process.
In a lot of fields that is just normal and expected. If it's not on your resume they probably won't interview you at all, because they will assume that your GPA is around 1.0 (or whatever number is terrible but doesn't result in expulsion from the college). If they do interview you it's likely to be the first or second question. Coming from someone who's had a lot of time on both sides of the interviewing desk.
Gabriel556
04-28-21, 09:41
Rero, my company (major heavy truck manufacturer) is hiring some engineer type people for a new field test/design facility we are building outside of San Antonio. We are also building a production facility there. Our defense group has a facility in Mississippi where we design, test, and build armored mil equipment. PM me if you are interested in more information. Another idea is Crane in Southern Indiana. I may or may not know people there too. Obviously you’d have to relocate.
In a lot of fields that is just normal and expected. If it's not on your resume they probably won't interview you at all, because they will assume that your GPA is around 1.0 (or whatever number is terrible but doesn't result in expulsion from the college). If they do interview you it's likely to be the first or second question. Coming from someone who's had a lot of time on both sides of the interviewing desk.
So I have had 3 career jobs ranging from a 3.8 billion dollar company to where I am now, with a 90 million dollar company, only once was I asked what my GPA was, and even then I was honest and told them that I devoted as much time as I could toward school work and got a 2.7 gpa, that said I was a member of the student senate, veterans group, and student mentor all while being a new father, and working 30 hours a week. Just like with anything when people want a simple answer be sure that you know and communicate the nuances of the issue. They'll still want a simple answer, but most people in the working world understand that more than one complexity leads to a problem.
Curious as to why you're sharing your GPA in the interview process.
It's a Q that gets asked of younger people as they don't have a lengthy work track record to examine, same for where you went to school. GPA does not seem to have any bearing on how people do post education, just as SAT scores only seem to predict how people will do in school the first year, but humans love their scores and numbers.
In my field, no one give's a rat's ass what the GPA is as long as you have a license...
When I am forced to participate in career fairs or go to a school to recruit, some people want to tell me...I just cut them off and tell them, "no offense, no one cares."
In my field, no one give's a rat's ass what the GPA is as long as you have a license...
When I am forced to participate in career fairs or go to a school to recruit, some people want to tell me...I just cut them off and tell them, "no offense, no one cares."
Give me the person who worked 2 jobs, took care of his sick mother, and had a 2.5 GPA over the person who comes from $ with a 4.0 any day.
FromMyColdDeadHand
04-28-21, 11:13
My GPA? It’s classified. Did I mention I have a top secret military security clearance?
I would love to get out of the SOCAL area but my wife's family is here and she has no desire to leave.
As to the GPA, I try not to share it but when they ask I do share it and try my best to relay the nuances of the situation, like how I'm currently working full time on orders, attending the Sergeants Major Academy, going to school 3/4 time, all while keeping up my home and being a father to a very rambunctious toddler.
I feel like if these job interviews had been in person I would have been offered a position already, I've interviewed in person for 8 different jobs over the years and was offered a position 6 times. I'm hoping that with my promotion to SGM/CSM in a few months I'll be able to get a TS clearance, which should help with the job hunt as well.
Guess I need to start claiming my Native American heritage, as small as it is. My dad is like half Sicilian, Sicily was under rule of the Moors for like 500 years so there's a good chance that there's some African blood there.
My GPA? It’s classified. Did I mention I have a top secret military security clearance?
Going full OT:
That reminds me of something that happens at the museum with some frequency: person says their dad/uncle what ever was a SEAL. We tell them if they know their BUDs # we can look them up and show them their graduation pic and other cool stuff. They respond "I told them I was going the museum and they said not to bother trying to verify as all their info was removed due to to secret experiences"
I'm usually polite about it and inform them that's not how it works, some not nearly so nice about it.
Some times the person gets offended and says something like "they also told me you'd say something like that" and leaves in a huff.
I can't fathom having gone through life having lied to your kids or what ever about something like that.
The internet has cut way down on that as it's easy to confirm the person is legit, but they still try.
Don Shipley spends much of his efforts on his YT page just exposing the d bags. His latest is savage:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6A6hmvUVgc
My GPA? It’s classified. Did I mention I have a top secret military security clearance?
Lotsa dummies out there with kick ass jobs bro. My friends cousin is retarded and flies for Spirit Airlines. ;)
FromMyColdDeadHand
04-28-21, 12:21
Lotsa dummies out there with kick ass jobs bro. My friends cousin is retarded and flies for Spirit Airlines. ;)
What’s the saying? ‘C students manage B students, who claim the work they of A students....
Lotsa dummies out there with kick ass jobs bro. My friends cousin is retarded and flies for Spirit Airlines. ;)
All my experiences with that airline confirms they hire from the bottom of the barrel for that industry. They suck out loud.
My experience has always been the degree is what mattered showing you can survive a process as much as "master" the content. Brag sheets for those who graduate top of class, but for everyone ranked #3 or lower, getting the BA/BS/MBA, etc what counted.
WickedWillis
04-28-21, 14:36
Try to find earthmover tires...months out. And when you can’t shoe up loaders and haul trucks, quarries and construction slows way down...
Caterpillar is generally a good indication of how weak or strong a market is. One of my customers makes earthmover dump beds for CAt and they are going strong right now. I feel like that might change based on raw materials.
I challenge any who read my words to fully enjoy life now while it’s somewhat possible.
Screw sports. Screw money. Screw politics. Screw the news.
Nothing will ever change for the better again. And even if it does, nobody here over 25 will live to see it.
I challenge any who read my words to fully enjoy life now while it’s somewhat possible.
Screw sports. Screw money. Screw politics. Screw the news.
Nothing will ever change for the better again. And even if it does, nobody here over 25 will live to see it.
And yet, it's still possible to lead a very good life. It's a matter of perspective and personal will. Many fail to understand this. They want to say, "Oh, you're just doom and gloom"....Not hardly. Recognizing WTF is going on in this country ALLOWS me to live as I choose.....You can Recognize and Acknowledge that things are shitty- YOU DON'T have to let that beat you down- it's not an either or deal. But some people are not mentally tough I suppose...
And yet, it's still possible to lead a very good life. It's a matter of perspective and personal will. Many fail to understand this. They want to say, "Oh, you're just doom and gloom"....Not hardly. Recognizing WTF is going on in this country ALLOWS me to live as I choose.....You can Recognize and Acknowledge that things are shitty- YOU DON'T have to let that beat you down- it's not an either or deal. But some people are not mentally tough I suppose...
Statistically speaking, there's never been a better time to be a human being on this planet. I don't know if that's depressing or not, but it's true, with a minor speed bump this year being covid and its politicization there of, but on the balance, it's nothing compared to what humans and or the planet has faced. Some days it does feel like the BS will never end and the chit birds are winning, but as you say, perspective is essential, and so does the reality that we are slammed with 24/7 doom and gloom. It gets to me also and I have to fight my nihilism constantly.
You’ll see.
Lotsa Neville Chamberlains thinking it’s all sustainable.
I’m building an ark. It’s looking mighty cloudy. And you’re gonna tell me about your best laid plans.
There will be people passively implying their hearty, steeled reserve. Yet others rationalizing how streaming HBO and shitting on an indoor toilet means this just has to be the best time in history.
The easier life is, the easier it is to subvert.
Kings were killed in uprisings over less than what your elected officials do every day but because you got wifi and a job it’s all Punky Brewster....
I’m just saying, live life now. While you can. Before they make it impossible to do anything. Because we already know nobody is going to fight or anything. Maybe one person here or there, easily dismissed.
No, I won’t fight because I am an oppressor. Sort of. I don’t know anymore.
Find live music, find people who read, go to the middle of nowhere and make heterosexual love until you have no bodily fluids left. Have a cheat week and get them triglycerides up.
This is essentially the age of the Western Man’s Ragnarok.
9th Circuit just ruled that AB5 will apply to the trucking industry. If it stands it will significantly alter the industry and the cost to ship goods.
https://redstate.com/jenniferoo/2021/04/28/cas-9th-circuit-overturns-injunction-ca-truckers-will-now-be-subject-to-ab5-n370608
I challenge any who read my words to fully enjoy life now while it’s somewhat possible.
Screw sports. Screw money. Screw politics. Screw the news.
Nothing will ever change for the better again. And even if it does, nobody here over 25 will live to see it.
I think that might depend on perspective. If you like how things were, the upcoming reality might be hell on earth for you. If on the other hand you were one of the people who kind of hated modern society, there might be pockets of utopia to be found in the future. I think we'll have to live more simply, but for those who are willing to work with their hands and make their own way, might not be so bad. I think the rudest awaking is coming for people who connived their way into a cushy gig as a bureaucrat or environmental sciences teacher or something.
You’ll see.
Lotsa Neville Chamberlains thinking it’s all sustainable.
I’m building an ark. It’s looking mighty cloudy. And you’re gonna tell me about your best laid plans.
There will be people passively implying their hearty, steeled reserve. Yet others rationalizing how streaming HBO and shitting on an indoor toilet means this just has to be the best time in history.
The easier life is, the easier it is to subvert.
Kings were killed in uprisings over less than what your elected officials do every day but because you got wifi and a job it’s all Punky Brewster....
I’m just saying, live life now. While you can. Before they make it impossible to do anything. Because we already know nobody is going to fight or anything. Maybe one person here or there, easily dismissed.
No, I won’t fight because I am an oppressor. Sort of. I don’t know anymore.
Find live music, find people who read, go to the middle of nowhere and make heterosexual love until you have no bodily fluids left. Have a cheat week and get them triglycerides up.
This is essentially the age of the Western Man’s Ragnarok.
This probably sounds crazy to most, but I hate indoor plumbing. I prefer the woods, but even an outhouse is preferable to a nasty toilet IN MY HOUSE, NOT TWO FREAKING FEET FROM WHERE I KEEP MY TOOTHBRUSH. Sorry, but that's not civilized. That's 10 degrees from being a prisoner in a supermax facility.
Whiskey_Bravo
04-28-21, 16:31
I think that might depend on perspective. If you like how things were, the upcoming reality might be hell on earth for you. If on the other hand you were one of the people who kind of hated modern society, there might be pockets of utopia to be found in the future. I think we'll have to live more simply, but for those who are willing to work with their hands and make their own way, might not be so bad. I think the rudest awaking is coming for people who connived their way into a cushy gig as a bureaucrat or environmental sciences teacher or something.
I have recently purchased a small ranch(well at least small by cattle ranch standards) here in Texas. Waiting on my Starlink internet to make working from there easier. I don't think things are going to get all that much better. 4 years of sleepy joe and his communist masters is probably not going to make things better. Once I can work from there I will be selling my suburbian home and we will be living there full time. It can't happen fast enough.
Whiskey_Bravo
04-28-21, 16:32
9th Circuit just ruled that AB5 will apply to the trucking industry. If it stands it will significantly alter the industry and the cost to ship goods.
https://redstate.com/jenniferoo/2021/04/28/cas-9th-circuit-overturns-injunction-ca-truckers-will-now-be-subject-to-ab5-n370608
Well it is California so I am not surprised.
Statistically speaking, there's never been a better time to be a human being on this planet. I don't know if that's depressing or not, but it's true, with a minor speed bump this year being covid and its politicization there of, but on the balance, it's nothing compared to what humans and or the planet has faced. Some days it does feel like the BS will never end and the chit birds are winning, but as you say, perspective is essential, and so does the reality that we are slammed with 24/7 doom and gloom. It gets to me also and I have to fight my nihilism constantly.
SO SO SO TRUE !!!!
As I have been using and saying as example one of the largest global game changer the fall of Rome and yet I still love Italy its still kicking even after over 2000 years of ups and downs and still a great place to go as a tourist etc...
Or can you imagine being in Europe in WWII how horrifying for most that was !
Or go back 250 years with the english what they were doing to the now USA !
As a whole we always move forward sure a few ripples along the way !
I do think Russia is better off today and they went through a radical collapse still not a place I want to live looks pretty rough !
I think many do not realize we only got on top post WWII so a fraction or blip of time and we are the greatest country in the world and the last beacon of freedom !
I am almost for some kinda collapse and rebuild to clear out the idiocy and let folks get a taste of what is rough and truly bad like my time in Central America ! Heck even you have a place down there its got its charm and stuff even with all the problems and corruption etc...
I think many need to live out of the country to realize how great we have it !!!! And not the folks here so much I am preaching to the choir ya can say but all the lefties that whine need to move for a few years !
SO SO SO TRUE !!!!
As I have been using and saying as example one of the largest global game changer the fall of Rome and yet I still love Italy its still kicking even after over 2000 years of ups and downs and still a great place to go as a tourist etc...
Or can you imagine being in Europe in WWII how horrifying for most that was !
Or go back 250 years with the english what they were doing to the now USA !
As a whole we always move forward sure a few ripples along the way !
I do think Russia is better off today and they went through a radical collapse still not a place I want to live looks pretty rough !
I think many do not realize we only got on top post WWII so a fraction or blip of time and we are the greatest country in the world and the last beacon of freedom !
I am almost for some kinda collapse and rebuild to clear out the idiocy and let folks get a taste of what is rough and truly bad like my time in Central America ! Heck even you have a place down there its got its charm and stuff even with all the problems and corruption etc...
I think many need to live out of the country to realize how great we have it !!!! And not the folks here so much I am preaching to the choir ya can say but all the lefties that whine need to move for a few years !
I think that's the Achilles heel of the US; as such a young country we tend to have a very short memory for such things, even by those who do know their history, much less those that don't. But, my favorite scene in The Matrix, so under appreciated was:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrBdYmStZJ4
Going to have to watch that again :) good scene and kinda freaky its the big tech dreams (that scene in a way)
I don’t think things are going to get any better. Like ever. It really doesn’t matter who runs or wins in 2024. I started reading Bloodlands by Tim Synder and I have a bad feeling we will get to live it sooner then later.
I feel like I am William S. Burroughs surrounded and beset upon by people who think they are either Hub McCann or Vladimir Lenin or Che Guevara.
It’s all so clear.
You’re all exactly correct. Everything is totally fine. No cause for alarm nor concern.
The world deserves this.
9th Circuit just ruled that AB5 will apply to the trucking industry. If it stands it will significantly alter the industry and the cost to ship goods.
https://redstate.com/jenniferoo/2021/04/28/cas-9th-circuit-overturns-injunction-ca-truckers-will-now-be-subject-to-ab5-n370608For Cali
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I think that might depend on perspective. If you like how things were, the upcoming reality might be hell on earth for you. If on the other hand you were one of the people who kind of hated modern society, there might be pockets of utopia to be found in the future. I think we'll have to live more simply, but for those who are willing to work with their hands and make their own way, might not be so bad. I think the rudest awaking is coming for people who connived their way into a cushy gig as a bureaucrat or environmental sciences teacher or something.I liked how things were but I don't see hell on earth coming either. Or we have a very different understanding of hell on earth
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It’s always an extreme. No. It will not be hell on earth.
It will be worse. To me anyways....
Bland, grey, one size fits all, boring.
I do regret not taking it in more 25 years ago. I enjoyed it. But I didn’t appreciate it.
It was a much more free time. Liberated.
There weren’t any “No Fly lists”
Nobody was trying to make you eat the bugs or soy.
Nobody cared if you hated Bill Clinton.
Forget Spotemgotem and Pooh Shiesty linking up. Fricking Marilyn Manson and G. Gordon Liddy linked up. And we needed it.
Don’t believe me?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dr6nssootog
Sex wasn’t safe but it was more fun and still pretty hetero.
And you’re gonna bore me about some pygmie in New Guinea.
Uughhh....
This probably sounds crazy to most, but I hate indoor plumbing. I prefer the woods, but even an outhouse is preferable to a nasty toilet IN MY HOUSE, NOT TWO FREAKING FEET FROM WHERE I KEEP MY TOOTHBRUSH. Sorry, but that's not civilized. That's 10 degrees from being a prisoner in a supermax facility.
You don't know how to keep your tooth brush in the drawer so turd and piss droplets don't get on it when you flush? :confused:
Lost count of how many times the last wife pissed me off and I just kept quiet about it. And then went and cleaned the toilet with the bitches tooth brush... Before you ask - No, Kissing that mouth was out of the question. I knew darn well what had been in it and it was not just dirty tooth brushes...
You don't know how to keep your tooth brush in the drawer so turd and piss droplets don't get on it when you flush? :confused:
Lost count of how many times the last wife pissed me off and I just kept quiet about it. And then went and cleaned the toilet with the bitches tooth brush... Before you ask - No, Kissing that mouth was out of the question. I knew darn well what had been in it and it was not just dirty tooth brushes...
Aaahhaaaaahahaha this post cheered me up.
thepatriot2705
04-28-21, 21:52
All I know is it’s cheaper for me to build a true brick addition than frame it. This all sucks so fing much.
I liked how things were but I don't see hell on earth coming either. Or we have a very different understanding of hell on earth
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Imagine a political science major suddenly having to work for a living. To them, that's hell on earth. It's ironic, because the American exceptionalism they hate so much is what has allowed them to basically become parasites on society, because we just have so much stuff. They have a very rude awakening coming.
Straight Shooter
04-29-21, 00:21
https://youtu.be/9n29c-q3_8Q?t=66
This used to haunt me ever since I saw it for the first time. From 1:02 especially.
But, since I put my faith hope & trust in Jesus Christ..it doesnt anymore. I hope Im not here much longer to see the degredation of this once awesome, wonderful country.
Those who are young & have a supposed long time left- things are gonna suck so badly for yall. We've dodged this bullet a few times in my lifetime. But, it IS coming.
Those who are leaving the cesspools they created, will spoil the areas they move into in no time at all. You cant pour a half gallon of spoiled milk into a whole gallon of fresh and still have fresh milk.
They will STILL vote liberal..STILL turn their noses up at your "rural" way of life...STILL think you are a bunch of rubes & STILL demand things to be like it was wherever they came from. All they want is less taxes & lower cost of living and less crime. They dont give A DAMN about your guns, shooting, hunting, religious values of the area, traditions or anything else. That little country town..with crosses & war memorials and Christmas decorations that have been there for 50, 100 years..well thatll be offensive to them..gotta go. That shootin range is scary..loud..and all that lead in the ground...got to go. Beside those crosses we 've got have a Satanic symbol now, and a gay one, and a muslim one, ect ect. Why arent the local schools teaching common core, evolution, about all the genders, about adcdefg rights, and all the other garbage they want taught? It just isnt gonna be the same. They aint coming South to "assimilate", I promise you.
You don't know how to keep your tooth brush in the drawer so turd and piss droplets don't get on it when you flush? :confused:
Lost count of how many times the last wife pissed me off and I just kept quiet about it. And then went and cleaned the toilet with the bitches tooth brush... Before you ask - No, Kissing that mouth was out of the question. I knew darn well what had been in it and it was not just dirty tooth brushes...
Damn you went medieval....
Bet she did worse to your brush !
Knew what you were doing and never really used hers !
Most likely ate a lot of food that was just for you !
You don't know how to keep your tooth brush in the drawer so turd and piss droplets don't get on it when you flush? :confused:
Lost count of how many times the last wife pissed me off and I just kept quiet about it. And then went and cleaned the toilet with the bitches tooth brush... Before you ask - No, Kissing that mouth was out of the question. I knew darn well what had been in it and it was not just dirty tooth brushes...
For Cali
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Where the bulk of our manufacturing components and finished consumer goods either arrive or pass through on their way to the store or factory from Asia.
Where the bulk of our manufacturing components and finished consumer goods either arrive or pass through on their way to the store or factory from Asia.
I had the same thought.
Andy
You don't know how to keep your tooth brush in the drawer so turd and piss droplets don't get on it when you flush? :confused:
Lost count of how many times the last wife pissed me off and I just kept quiet about it. And then went and cleaned the toilet with the bitches tooth brush... Before you ask - No, Kissing that mouth was out of the question. I knew darn well what had been in it and it was not just dirty tooth brushes...
It's just uncivilized in general having a toilet inside the house. And builders don't even have the decency to put them off at the end of a hallway or something, out of the way. Or at least soundproof them. You're sitting there trying to have a dinner party while one of the guests is in there blowing ass in the half bath right off the kitchen/great room, and everyone is just like, Yea I don't hear anything either.:rolleyes:
ChattanoogaPhil
04-29-21, 08:38
What are these tough times ahead?
Tough times used to be watching helplessly as your child suffered from Polio. Tough times today is a slow Internet connection and Starbucks got your order wrong.
Most people think of tough economic times as 1929 era depression. However, in the prior good ol' times of the Roaring 20s many homes in America didn't even have electricity and a third of the population lived in poverty.
If economic times get rough are ya gonna be able to cope with canceling yer $200 monthly hi-def bazillion channel cable TV service? How tough are ya?
It's just uncivilized in general having a toilet inside the house. And builders don't even have the decency to put them off at the end of a hallway or something, out of the way. Or at least soundproof them. You're sitting there trying to have a dinner party while one of the guests is in there blowing ass in the half bath right off the kitchen/great room, and everyone is just like, Yea I don't hear anything either.:rolleyes:
Ha! Well some of that can be blamed on the builders. Have a friend who used to live in an old Victorian. I'm guessing the bathroom was an add on when indoor plumbing became all the rage because it's built into the kitchen. Literally like one of the pantry doors. I made a conscious attempt to not use the bathroom around eating time.
I always thought it was odd that Americans keep meds in the bathroom
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Ha! Well some of that can be blamed on the builders. Have a friend who used to live in an old Victorian. I'm guessing the bathroom was an add on when indoor plumbing became all the rage because it's built into the kitchen. Literally like one of the pantry doors. I made a conscious attempt to not use the bathroom around eating time.
I always thought it was odd that Americans keep meds in the bathroom
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I think what bothers me most is showering next to the toilet. When everything gets all moist and humid, there's just something very unclean feeling about having a toilet in the same room. Kinda like being in a steam room with a toilet in it. I don't know, something about that just feels so wrong. The toilet should be its own room completely separate, preferably in an outbuilding in the back yard.
Inkslinger
04-29-21, 17:25
All this toilet talk...You know they have lids on them for a reason.
robbins290
04-29-21, 18:13
It’s always an extreme. No. It will not be hell on earth.
It will be worse. To me anyways....
Bland, grey, one size fits all, boring.
I do regret not taking it in more 25 years ago. I enjoyed it. But I didn’t appreciate it.
It was a much more free time. Liberated.
There weren’t any “No Fly lists”
Nobody was trying to make you eat the bugs or soy.
Nobody cared if you hated Bill Clinton.
Forget Spotemgotem and Pooh Shiesty linking up. Fricking Marilyn Manson and G. Gordon Liddy linked up. And we needed it.
Don’t believe me?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dr6nssootog
Sex wasn’t safe but it was more fun and still pretty hetero.
And you’re gonna bore me about some pygmie in New Guinea.
Uughhh....
Ever seen that movie Equilibrium? It will be like that, we will be pawns/drones. Fed drugs and injected with stuff to make us have no feelings.
Kind alike those hand blowers you use and read the reports of fecal matter blowing through those ! Hahahahahha
Nothing compares to Central American public places though !
Business_Casual
04-29-21, 20:09
Try taking a shit in India (outside a Hilton or Marriott).
FromMyColdDeadHand
04-30-21, 00:46
Try taking a shit in India (outside a Hilton or Marriott).
Yes, but the more trying time is trying not to take a shit when you are not near a Hilton or Marriott...
I’m a structural steel/welding contractor. My cost on regular iron products like tubing and sheeting have doubled in the last 4 months. Stainless steel has gone up about 3-400%. My steel supplier told me the other day that wide flange beam and some tubing will be becoming scarce in the coming months. I ordered a new horizontal band saw and it’s a 12-16 week lead time. My shop is busier than ever with requests for quotes pouring in faster than I can get to them. I don’t know how this economy is being propped up. Everything is more expensive. There’s a shortage of real estate in my area of NorCal. Homes are being sold at 10-20% higher than asking price. Everything is being blamed on this Kung Flu bullshit. As mentioned above, the media refuses to report on real life issues. They are peddling their racial divide and worshiping their communist masters in govt.
robbins290
04-30-21, 04:50
I’m a structural steel/welding contractor. My cost on regular iron products like tubing and sheeting have doubled in the last 4 months. Stainless steel has gone up about 3-400%. My steel supplier told me the other day that wide flange beam and some tubing will be becoming scarce in the coming months. I ordered a new horizontal band saw and it’s a 12-16 week lead time. My shop is busier than ever with requests for quotes pouring in faster than I can get to them. I don’t know how this economy is being propped up. Everything is more expensive. There’s a shortage of real estate in my area of NorCal. Homes are being sold at 10-20% higher than asking price. Everything is being blamed on this Kung Flu bullshit. As mentioned above, the media refuses to report on real life issues. They are peddling their racial divide and worshiping their communist masters in govt.
Also add steel decking to that list. We we do proposals now. We have to omit joist and decking. Because. Our suppliers can nor give us a price. Galvanizing cost has doubled also. Only thing that has not gone up (yet) is a325 bolts and tc bolts.
Adrenaline_6
04-30-21, 08:10
I think what bothers me most is showering next to the toilet. When everything gets all moist and humid, there's just something very unclean feeling about having a toilet in the same room. Kinda like being in a steam room with a toilet in it. I don't know, something about that just feels so wrong. The toilet should be its own room completely separate, preferably in an outbuilding in the back yard.
2 words....water closets.
Try taking a shit in India (outside a Hilton or Marriott).
I think the only way I would ever go to India is if I were in a biohazard suit the entire time.
I think what bothers me most is showering next to the toilet. When everything gets all moist and humid, there's just something very unclean feeling about having a toilet in the same room. Kinda like being in a steam room with a toilet in it. I don't know, something about that just feels so wrong. The toilet should be its own room completely separate, preferably in an outbuilding in the back yard.Couldn't care less. Unless you don't flush but that's a different issue.
If you don't like empty toilets I'd recommend not knowing what a fart actually is! [emoji16]
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Pacific5th
04-30-21, 10:57
A couple things. First off our microwave went out a few weeks ago. Besides countertop units all the wall mounts were two four months out at Home Depot and Lowe’s. We got one a appliance store but spent more then I wanted to.
My in-laws are building a house in Idaho. It was supposed to be done mid June. A few days ago the builder told them due to material shortages there looking at September now.
I think the only way I would ever go to India is if I were in a biohazard suit the entire time.
Ha, my former brother-in-law, a guy I used to kid around with, used to go to exotic and rather dodgy places on vacation...... and catch the local exotic disease. Sure enough he went to India and got something, I don't remember as it was at least 10 years ago. Not a health guy in the first place but yet he just had to go to Krapistan on vacation.
A couple things. First off our microwave went out a few weeks ago. Besides countertop units all the wall mounts were two four months out at Home Depot and Lowe’s. We got one a appliance store but spent more then I wanted to.
My in-laws are building a house in Idaho. It was supposed to be done mid June. A few days ago the builder told them due to material shortages there looking at September now.
Had to order a new stainless refrigerator for a rental unit early this month. In a town of 250k people, there was EXACTLY ONE for sale. Best Buy, Home Depot, Lowes, Conns....one of those Freight Places....Checked everywhere, was glad to get the Whirpool I did, it doesn't fit the space all that well- it's a little deeper so it sticks out but it is what it is. Can't be to friggen choosy right now.
thepatriot2705
04-30-21, 13:35
It's just uncivilized in general having a toilet inside the house. And builders don't even have the decency to put them off at the end of a hallway or something, out of the way. Or at least soundproof them. You're sitting there trying to have a dinner party while one of the guests is in there blowing ass in the half bath right off the kitchen/great room, and everyone is just like, Yea I don't hear anything either.:rolleyes:
When I go to finish the master bathroom, the toilet will have its own room. Shitting where you clean yourself makes no ****ing sense
It's just uncivilized in general having a toilet inside the house. And builders don't even have the decency to put them off at the end of a hallway or something, out of the way. Or at least soundproof them. You're sitting there trying to have a dinner party while one of the guests is in there blowing ass in the half bath right off the kitchen/great room, and everyone is just like, Yea I don't hear anything either.:rolleyes:
Yeah, worst aspect of my house. The downstairs bathroom is right off the kitchen/dining room. I'm going to move it during the next remodel. When I remodeled upstairs for the kids (two girls, one boy) I put the shower and toilet in its own little room, then put in a triple sink vanity so they wouldn't fight too much. Worked like a charm and one of my favorite things about the house.
Robbins290, give it time. Bolts will go up and there will probably be a mysterious shortage of them too.
Water locker ? I know ours is in a separate room :)
The other two are dual doors and have the toilet with the shower but they are separate from all the main sink areas ?
Keeping your toilet clean ? IMHO once you flush non issue as you should not be peeing and crapping on the floor are all over and ya wont have the worries ? But makes a good joke I reckon :) hahahaha
Funny as many homes in Japan have been doing this for a long time I also like that their tub rooms have the shower everything with a drain in the main floor etc...
When I go to finish the master bathroom, the toilet will have its own room. Shitting where you clean yourself makes no ****ing sense
Thank you!
robbins290
05-01-21, 06:32
"Robbins290, give it time. Bolts will go up and there will probably be a mysterious shortage of them too."
There ain't no doubt about that. Just waiting for them to.
I feel like I am William S. Burroughs surrounded and beset upon by people who think they are either Hub McCann or Vladimir Lenin or Che Guevara.
It’s all so clear.
You’re all exactly correct. Everything is totally fine. No cause for alarm nor concern.
The world deserves this.................................................................................................................................................................................................
And the world is getting it good and hard , ha ha as we set here in the sticks and watch it all go bye , bye bye !
The corporations are learning the mass consumers are easy to scam.
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