View Full Version : Housing market
thepatriot2705
06-09-21, 18:02
Saw an article today that firms like blackrock are buying houses for 20-50% over asking. I think it’s time to ban single family home investments if you have an AUM of over $100,000,000. When people are being forced to rent because they can’t compete with these mega firms, you have a problem
These home buying parasites are awful.
just a scout
06-09-21, 18:42
All part of the Great Reset. You’ll nothing and you’ll like it.
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This kind of market never ends well. Unless you're standing on the sidelines with cash when the meltdown happens.
Coal Dragger
06-09-21, 19:15
Yep.
Sitting on a modest pile of cash now, waiting for reality to hit.
Houses in my area are selling 20 to $50K over asking in two days, or 2 hrs. It's so out of control. My real estate buddy said "people want to sell their houses but can't imagine trying to buy the following week. Ads say, "sell us your house and live in it another 6 months if you want".
Its just nuts
PB
Got a buddy trying to find his first house in the median range price market.
He's put in offers $10k above the ask price and is still losing out. It's crazy.
Glad I bought mine when I did. Great time to sell if you plan to downsize or whatever. Terrible time to attempt any kind of lateral move.
Those sitting on houses since the 2008 crash are gonna be happy. But wall street will probably create another bubble and break it.
just a scout
06-09-21, 19:40
Probably?!
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ChattanoogaPhil
06-09-21, 20:06
I hope to leave my house feet first so the value doesn't much matter as far as selling. Unfortunately, the county is assessing property values for tax purposes.
Building materials aren't cheap. April 28 2021: National Association of Home Builders, lumber prices have tripled over the past 12 months and have caused the price of an average new single-family home to increase by $35,872
I am trying to build a house. Tried last year but had financing issues due to a bottom dwelling knuckle dragger low bid appraiser the bank chose -- full of factual error and when challenged on it said "not debatable." Anyway, so had to up my budget at least 10% but we got approved in 7 weeks and close this Friday. Trying tos et up with my contractor friend who is running the job to get stuff done and it is hard to find people to do things. For example, his normal excavator is normally 2 weeks notice but is hopelessly behind right now and so we are trying to find someone else who can dig. We are doing ICF externally but framed internally and my framer says that manufactured stuff like TJI joists are impossible to get now. He is talking with the engineer to re-engineer parts to use parallel chord trusses in the floor and roof (home is airtight with ventilation system, no attic, all vaulted, so normal roof trusses are not used)... Normal lumber is 3-4 months or maybe more.
We'll see how it goes.
I hope to leave my house feet first so the value doesn't much matter as far as selling. Unfortunately, the county is assessing property values for tax purposes.
Building materials aren't cheap. April 28 2021: National Association of Home Builders, lumber prices have tripled over the past 12 months and have caused the price of an average new single-family home to increase by $35,872
And what the F is that about? Did we suddenly stop making wood? Did covid kill all the trees? What is the deal with wood shortages and spiked prices? They know 2x4s aren't 9mm right?
And what the F is that about? Did we suddenly stop making wood? Did covid kill all the trees? What is the deal with wood shortages and spiked prices? They know 2x4s aren't 9mm right?
The claim is that mills and manufacturing plants were closed or downscaled in operation due to Covid so they lost 90 days of production, plus distribution cut back (warehousing etc) for the same reason. The shortages are especially noticeable, my guy said, for manufactured products like TJI, microlam, glulam, etc.
The claim is that mills and manufacturing plants were closed or downscaled in operation due to Covid so they lost 90 days of production, plus distribution cut back (warehousing etc) for the same reason. The shortages are especially noticeable, my guy said, for manufactured products like TJI, microlam, glulam, etc.
Looks like we also get a lot of our supply from Canada and now there are several problems at play. Thanks again Bill Clinton for NAFTA, when he dies I hope they burying him in a plastic bag because of wood shortages.
been looking for fun and many are double what they were just 2 years ago :) hahahah
we have this place free and clear but would like more property less home but might just put some into bringing this up to date ? OR just live with it and get a nice earthcruiser and travel the country
if anything I think going to Portugal or Italy and buying a nice getaway place and fixing it up sounds more fun these days than the prices I am seeing here !
There is no lumber supply problem if you are willing to pay. It's my primary business and we are at the end of the supply chain where I'm at. No shortage of TJI's here, or any other type of normal building material. It's just ungodly expensive right now. The only lumber product I currently can't get is 1x pine stock, and that's because it's all being made into 2x framing material at a better profit margin. I use Weyerhaeuser as one of my suppliers and they are overstocked on many items and keep sending me lists of "specials". Until they knock down the price, I'm not buying. They are basically panicking because the price has started down and they are going to get stuck with a bunch of overpriced inventory at the wholesale level.
FromMyColdDeadHand
06-10-21, 00:07
Saw an article today that firms like blackrock are buying houses for 20-50% over asking. I think it’s time to ban single family home investments if you have an AUM of over $100,000,000. When people are being forced to rent because they can’t compete with these mega firms, you have a problem
And when the property bubble pops, they will bail out of those properties and tank the market. If they go under, we’ll bail them out. Normal people, not so much.
You should be made to sign something that says that you realize that this isn’t financially sound.
We were looking for a house out of the city proper, and finally gave up. Looked at buying a mountain house, forget it.
The claim is that mills and manufacturing plants were closed or downscaled in operation due to Covid so they lost 90 days of production, plus distribution cut back (warehousing etc) for the same reason. The shortages are especially noticeable, my guy said, for manufactured products like TJI, microlam, glulam, etc.
Don't forget about the the guys at home collecting the big unemployment checks doing home improvements. They took materials out of the yards at a much higher rate than it was being replaced.
gunnerblue
06-10-21, 07:12
Looks like we also get a lot of our supply from Canada and now there are several problems at play. Thanks again Bill Clinton for NAFTA, when he dies I hope they burying him in a plastic bag because of wood shortages.
My dad runs a very large lumber company. Mills and yards nationwide have been shut down due to covid all this while. It's also very hard to find people willing to work these jobs even before covid-related unemployment payments. He says that the industry will be almost entirely automated within the next few years and that without migrant labor it would've been already.
As far as construction lumber goes, we get A LOT of it from Canada which has been even more restrictive.
As far as the market goes, my house and property are easily worth over 3x what I paid in 2011. Homes are selling sight unseen regularly around here for 400-600k. Insane
My house has doubled in value in under 10 years. Homes in our neighborhood rarely go on the market as it's a pretty settled neighborhood, but when they do, they are listed for about 10 days before they are sold, and there's been bidding wars.
My wife's friend is a realtor/real estate agent (apparently there IS a difference...). She said if you don't HAVE to sell, don't. People like the idea of having a cash cow...until they realize they may be outpriced when they start looking for another house and end up settling.
We are committed to staying for another 8 years, when our youngest child is 18 and presumably leaving for college or whatever. Then, we don't know. We'll sell and make a fortune, or the bubble will burst, in which case we'll stay.
ChattanoogaPhil
06-10-21, 07:49
And what the F is that about? Did we suddenly stop making wood? Did covid kill all the trees? What is the deal with wood shortages and spiked prices? They know 2x4s aren't 9mm right?
Yup, that's what happens when people don't go to work... things suddenly stop being made. Lockdowns and paying people to stay home have consequences.
brickboy240
06-10-21, 16:00
Our problem here in Texas are the Cali refugees coming in and paying over asking prices on homes for sale.
This pushes our appraised values up and are making it harder to afford to stay in your house.
Realtors are loving this scenario, because they are making bucks, those of us that paid our houses off early and were hoping to retire in TX someday...not so much.
Then, there is the fact that the CA refugees are turning our state blue.
oh...don't get me started....
Funny...you might as well have been referencing Georgia, as all of the above points are exceeding applicable to said state. Housing prices absurdly high, influx of Cali refugees, large cities are dark blue and spreading outward in cancerous concentric circles of pale blue.
Averageman
06-10-21, 17:03
Our problem here in Texas are the Cali refugees coming in and paying over asking prices on homes for sale.
This pushes our appraised values up and are making it harder to afford to stay in your house.
Realtors are loving this scenario, because they are making bucks, those of us that paid our houses off early and were hoping to retire in TX someday...not so much.
Then, there is the fact that the CA refugees are turning our state blue.
oh...don't get me started....
They're moving out of Austin and making offers on everything available.
Property is getting expensive and my taxes keep going up.
Utah is experiencing this as well. You have people in Cali selling their 3bd/2bt homes for a million then paying cash for a bigger home for a half mil then buying an investment/rental property for $300k. There is less than 2k homes on the market in utah and there’s waiting lists months long to even talk to a builder. We built a house early last year and are not selling, yet have received cash offers for $100k over what we paid. It’s mind boggling.
Our problem here in Texas are the Cali refugees coming in and paying over asking prices on homes for sale.
This pushes our appraised values up and are making it harder to afford to stay in your house.
Realtors are loving this scenario, because they are making bucks, those of us that paid our houses off early and were hoping to retire in TX someday...not so much.
Then, there is the fact that the CA refugees are turning our state blue.
oh...don't get me started....
The part of this I don't understand is who is still buying the Cali 3bd/2bt homes for a million, and why?
Chinese are buying California.
FromMyColdDeadHand
06-10-21, 19:12
Chinese are buying California.
Didn’t go well for the Japanese….
Averageman
06-10-21, 19:21
This can only go on until a market shift makes your 1,000,000 home in wonderful downtown Van Nuy's California worth about a fourth of that.
Eventually this will destroy the market.
thepatriot2705
06-10-21, 23:41
This thread brings up a good point. Higher valuations mean higher property taxes. Higher property taxes = Shit ton of people who can’t afford it anymore. They are then forced to sell or rent. And this pisses me off even more because I’ll only be able to stay in my house im rebuilding with my parents help for 5 years. (City has property tax abatement for Reno’s). Oh well, I’ll enjoy collecting 3k/month in rent on what is a .5 million property if I finished today.
This can only go on until a market shift makes your 1,000,000 home in wonderful downtown Van Nuy's California worth about a fourth of that.
Eventually this will destroy the market.
I hate to say it, but I hope so. Won’t be able afford otherwise.
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Chinese are buying California.
That will learn them.
brickboy240
06-11-21, 09:42
Ok, so the Chinese buy the overpriced CA houses. The CA peeps move to TX and FL and buy those overpriced houses.
What are we TX people with our houses paid off and no intentions on moving supposed to do?
I really did not WANT to move somewhere else to retire (...that is for the CA and northeastern peeps....LOL), but I do not even have the slightest idea where we would go.
Being from TX, we would want reasonable priced housing and gun laws no more restrictive than those of TX and I am not sure those things can be found together anymore.
In general...this blows.
Ok, so the Chinese buy the overpriced CA houses. The CA peeps move to TX and FL and buy those overpriced houses.
What are we TX people with our houses paid off and no intentions on moving supposed to do?
I really did not WANT to move somewhere else to retire (...that is for the CA and northeastern peeps....LOL), but I do not even have the slightest idea where we would go.
Being from TX, we would want reasonable priced housing and gun laws no more restrictive than those of TX and I am not sure those things can be found together anymore.
In general...this blows.
Idaho. For now at least…
Averageman
06-11-21, 10:08
Ok, so the Chinese buy the overpriced CA houses. The CA peeps move to TX and FL and buy those overpriced houses.
What are we TX people with our houses paid off and no intentions on moving supposed to do?
I really did not WANT to move somewhere else to retire (...that is for the CA and northeastern peeps....LOL), but I do not even have the slightest idea where we would go.
Being from TX, we would want reasonable priced housing and gun laws no more restrictive than those of TX and I am not sure those things can be found together anymore.
In general...this blows.
That's exactly where I am at.
House is paid off and I'm sitting here watching it's value creep up along with my taxes. I am not sure when the taxes will price me out of the house, but it just might.
ChattanoogaPhil
06-11-21, 10:16
This thread brings up a good point. Higher valuations mean higher property taxes. Higher property taxes = Shit ton of people who can’t afford it anymore. They are then forced to sell or rent. And this pisses me off even more because I’ll only be able to stay in my house im rebuilding with my parents help for 5 years. (City has property tax abatement for Reno’s). Oh well, I’ll enjoy collecting 3k/month in rent on what is a .5 million property if I finished today.
Property taxes are a huge issue, and it's nothing new. My mother still lives in a California home purchased in the 60s. Property values began rapidly increasing and folks anticipated the obvious problem of spiraling property taxes. Proposition 13 became law in the 70s. Property assessments are based on purchased price, not market value. Tax increases cannot exceed inflation or 2%.
Two California homes on the same block. Joe has lived there for over a half-century. His neighbor Fred just bought last year and paid $1.5 million. Joe might be paying around $1,000 per year in property taxes while Fred will be paying over $10,000.
Unfortunately, property taxes on my Tennessee home are based on market value. However, property taxes are frozen for owners age 65 and older.
thepatriot2705
06-11-21, 11:04
Property taxes are a huge issue, and it's nothing new. My mother still lives in a California home purchased in the 60s. Property values began rapidly increasing and folks anticipated the obvious problem of spiraling property taxes. Proposition 13 became law in the 70s. Property assessments are based on purchased price, not market value. Tax increases cannot exceed inflation or 2%.
Two California homes on the same block. Joe has lived there for over a half-century. His neighbor Fred just bought last year and paid $1.5 million. Joe might be paying around $1,000 per year in property taxes while Fred will be paying over $10,000.
Unfortunately, property taxes on my Tennessee home are based on market value. However, property taxes are frozen for owners age 65 and older.
I need to find the case, but I believe the Supreme Court ruled that taxes must have a specific relatable purpose. Don’t see how property taxes can be used to fund schools.
I have a great way to compute property taxes...take the police/fire budget and divide it by the number of structures in a jurisdiction. Done. My house doesn’t cost more to service just because it is worth more because of outside market forces
I need to find the case, but I believe the Supreme Court ruled that taxes must have a specific relatable purpose. Don’t see how property taxes can be used to fund schools.
I have a great way to compute property taxes...take the police/fire budget and divide it by the number of structures in a jurisdiction. Done. My house doesn’t cost more to service just because it is worth more because of outside market forces
Property taxes are used to fund schools all over the country. In my area, half the property taxes go to schools. I think you will find that nationwide, schools are the number one recipient of property taxes. Someone mentioned being exempt from property taxes after 65. As our area ages (including me) the property tax burden is shifted to the younger generations and that is unsustainable. I completely oppose special classes of citizens getting discounts on property tax.
Averageman
06-11-21, 12:12
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKHxvO5UvkI
This guy's take on it, lengthy, but good.
Averageman
06-11-21, 12:17
A follow up that is highly interesting and packing a lot of truth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H97yfKjvfVw
That's exactly where I am at.
House is paid off and I'm sitting here watching it's value creep up along with my taxes. I am not sure when the taxes will price me out of the house, but it just might.
Same. We paid our 30 year mortgage in about 7 years. Every month we sock away a bit for taxes.
I need to find the case, but I believe the Supreme Court ruled that taxes must have a specific relatable purpose. Don’t see how property taxes can be used to fund schools.
I have a great way to compute property taxes...take the police/fire budget and divide it by the number of structures in a jurisdiction. Done. My house doesn’t cost more to service just because it is worth more because of outside market forces
Property taxes pay for most of municipal government:
https://www.rate.com/resources/where-do-my-property-taxes-go
I do take issue that people who choose to go childless still have to 'pay in' to the school system. There should be an opt-out for them. As a homeschooler, I resent having to pay for the local schools.
brickboy240
06-11-21, 13:10
Idaho is NOT an option foe escaping Texas, sorry. Too cold and a quick spin on Zillow and I see the housing there is pretty damn pricey.
Most of the mountain/pretty states (CO, MT, ID, WY etc.) are too cold and the housing is pretty expensive. Some also have state income taxes and property taxes similar to TX.
I have family members that are realtors here in Houston and the stories they tell me about bidding wars by CA people on homes they have not even seen in person and other stories has me really worried. Texas will NOT remain the Texas I know and grew up in, with all of this influx of CA and northeastern people.
This problem is ONLY good for those that are in the real estate business and anyone planning on leaving TX for some reason and they have property to sell. For the rest of us, not planning on leaving TX, this is a really disturbing problem.
Idaho is NOT an option foe escaping Texas, sorry. Too cold and a quick spin on Zillow and I see the housing there is pretty damn pricey.
Most of the mountain/pretty states (CO, MT, ID, WY etc.) are too cold and the housing is pretty expensive. Some also have state income taxes and property taxes similar to TX.
I have family members that are realtors here in Houston and the stories they tell me about bidding wars by CA people on homes they have not even seen in person and other stories has me really worried. Texas will NOT remain the Texas I know and grew up in, with all of this influx of CA and northeastern people.
This problem is ONLY good for those that are in the real estate business and anyone planning on leaving TX for some reason and they have property to sell. For the rest of us, not planning on leaving TX, this is a really disturbing problem.
The same for NC (well, where I am, anyway). Recent article said yeah, you can sell, but where do you go when EVERYTHING is expensive? I could go to rural NC and get more house for less $, but I could not do what I do, and if I did manage to find a job doing it, it would pay a lot less.
Property taxes are used to fund schools all over the country. In my area, half the property taxes go to schools. I think you will find that nationwide, schools are the number one recipient of property taxes. Someone mentioned being exempt from property taxes after 65. As our area ages (including me) the property tax burden is shifted to the younger generations and that is unsustainable. I completely oppose special classes of citizens getting discounts on property tax.
Some states freeze the property tax at age 65 so that you continue to pay what you paid at 65 but increases in value do not cause the taxes to go up (and tax-price you out of your home). These freezes are generally specific to primary residences and not investment properties and often not for adjunct properties belonging to the residential -- ie, a hay field adjacent to the residential property, both owned and considered one proerty by the owner, wouldn't be frozen.
Averageman
06-11-21, 14:06
Some states freeze the property tax at age 65 so that you continue to pay what you paid at 65 but increases in value do not cause the taxes to go up (and tax-price you out of your home). These freezes are generally specific to primary residences and not investment properties and often not for adjunct properties belonging to the residential -- ie, a hay field adjacent to the residential property, both owned and considered one proerty by the owner, wouldn't be frozen.
That's completely logical and understandable.
I get a little bit torqued because my tax dollars are funding two High Schools and a Private College.
Chuckman ..... I`m in Wilkes County and prices here have also gone crazy . I`m about 20 miles from the next closest towns and they are about 4,000 people each .
Up here in our little community ( 20 full timers ) , We`ve seen homes that went for mid $200,000 two years ago are now going for $350,000 + and there is a bidding war and they were gone in 2 to 3 days. The locals up here aren`t real happy about what they are seeing ..... lucky I`m considered a local as I was dirt track racing up here in the early `90`s .
People from mostly northern areas ( NY , DC , PA etc ) are buying land off the internet sight unseen and don`t see it until they go to meet with a builder . Most of those city folks don`t understand things like what if the land won`t perc and that wells can be almost 1400 feet deep in the mtns . Mine is almost 1100 feet .
Since this is a second home for me , I don`t worry about a job , but I do understand what you`re talking about .
I`m afraid that the new folks will spoil everything . We sit on our back deck at night and listen to coyotes , cattle , owls and other neat things .... and also the silence .... we don`t want to lose that .
ChattanoogaPhil
06-11-21, 14:22
Property taxes are used to fund schools all over the country. In my area, half the property taxes go to schools. I think you will find that nationwide, schools are the number one recipient of property taxes. Someone mentioned being exempt from property taxes after 65. As our area ages (including me) the property tax burden is shifted to the younger generations and that is unsustainable. I completely oppose special classes of citizens getting discounts on property tax.
Here in Tennessee counties can choose to allow property owners ages 65 and older to freeze their taxes at current levels. That's been since 2006. No problems with sustainability, even with all the Covid nonsense. IIRC, our county budget shortfall during the midst of the pandemic was a mere $70 per capita. Peanuts. Anyway... the idea is to not burden those who are retired with limited income during their remaining years above dirt. Do ya really wanna squeeze some poor elderly guy on SS for additional property taxes? The good people of Hamilton County answered, no. Income limits are by county, they range from 30-55k. For those who wish to pay higher property taxes they're free to not apply. They can pay higher taxes on increased assessed property values if it helps them sleep better at night. We're very accommodating.
Chuckman ..... I`m in Wilkes County and prices here have also gone crazy . I`m about 20 miles from the next closest towns and they are about 4,000 people each .
Up here in our little community ( 20 full timers ) , We`ve seen homes that went for mid $200,000 two years ago are now going for $350,000 + and there is a bidding war and they were gone in 2 to 3 days. The locals up here aren`t real happy about what they are seeing ..... lucky I`m considered a local as I was dirt track racing up here in the early `90`s .
People from mostly northern areas ( NY , DC , PA etc ) are buying land off the internet sight unseen and don`t see it until they go to meet with a builder . Most of those city folks don`t understand things like what if the land won`t perc and that wells can be almost 1400 feet deep in the mtns . Mine is almost 1100 feet .
Since this is a second home for me , I don`t worry about a job , but I do understand what you`re talking about .
I`m afraid that the new folks will spoil everything . We sit on our back deck at night and listen to coyotes , cattle , owls and other neat things .... and also the silence .... we don`t want to lose that .
That's a beautiful area. I just spent a few days just west of you (Blowing Rock/Boone). I hate that the crap has reached y'all, but I am not surprised.
brickboy240
06-11-21, 14:37
Yes, even our beloved TX freezes taxes at age 65.
However, if you are in your 50s and saving for retirement....it is pedal to the metal on the tax raises for now, so by the time I do get to 65, they will be even scarier than they are right now.
The freezing part is of little appeal, if you have lots of time left before 65 and these county appraisal districts are hitting you for a 7-13% increase every year.
I have just began the research into which state we will need to use as our "escape state" when TX turns blue and the taxes get too high for us. Problem is...I am not finding much that is appealing.
It's the same everywhere. Places here where you'd think twice before dropping $80k on a house yesterday....today no problem dropping $200k
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So far the highest above asking I have written this year is 426K on house listed for 359,900. We still didn't get it. Houses get a dozen offers the day they go live in the MLS and for well over asking. Appraisers are doing their best to keep things from going to crazy but they can only do so much.
It is all about inventory though. Interest rates are down to all time lows, more people are working from home and need more space, add to that the near complete halt in new construction after the 2008 bubble and you have a near perfect storm.
The interesting thing is that it is a bubble, but unlike the last one this bubble isn't from artificial causes so if things are handled right it will ease out and not explode.
Good example of Prices. I sold my parent their home in July of 2016. They paid 220K for a house with an unfinished basement. The exact same house in the same neighborhood but just with a finished basement is now selling for 380-420 depending on the exact details.
We have less than 300 houses for sale in our area when we usually have closer to 1K at this time of year. Cut out the extreme high end and the trash... Well it just gets even scarier there.
My neighbor had a sign go up Sunday evening..."for sale coming soon". Monday morning it was changed to "sold"
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Same here, building like crazy, house prices are ridiculous, and rent is up about 30% when people renew their leases.
One of my co-workers is in the middle of having a home built. If the market continues, they could close on the house and re-sell for $150 - 200k profit by the end of the year.
brickboy240
06-11-21, 15:57
If the overall economy is so far down and the unemployment rate is still up....who the hell is affording all of these inflated homes? LOL
Averageman
06-11-21, 18:02
If the overall economy is so far down and the unemployment rate is still up....who the hell is affording all of these inflated homes? LOL
I think a lot of this is investment money from outside CONUS.
You simply couldn't walk through some of these area's, see the homeless people living in tents and the boarded up retail stores and actually decide to take that gamble and spend several million dollars of investment money.
Look at those video's I posted earlier in the thread, California is just done, it's not coming back.
If the overall economy is so far down and the unemployment rate is still up....who the hell is affording all of these inflated homes? LOLI guess you missed the part where all the investment firms like Black Rock are buying up entire neighborhoods, often offering much more money than anyone one person can afford to put down
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I think a lot of this is investment money from outside CONUS.
You simply couldn't walk through some of these area's, see the homeless people living in tents and the boarded up retail stores and actually decide to take that gamble and spend several million dollars of investment money.
Look at those video's I posted earlier in the thread, California is just done, it's not coming back.
The other issue is gentrification, we have a lot of people coming into sketchy neighborhoods buying houses, pouring three times the value into it to refurbish and jacking up prices for everyone, including the poor folks who lived in the neighborhood for generations and now can't afford to live there any longer.
It is a double-edged sword. 30 years ago we couldn't walk in downtown without being mugged. Today I can't go into downtown because I can't afford the parking much less the James Beard award winning restaurants that charge $15 for an appetizer or $8 for a beer.
If the overall economy is so far down and the unemployment rate is still up....who the hell is affording all of these inflated homes? LOL
Lots of people paying $150k for $115k homes. My sister FINALLY got a place but her offer stated she'd pay $1,000 above the highest offer.
gunnerblue
06-12-21, 07:24
Lots of people paying $150k for $115k homes. My sister FINALLY got a place but her offer stated she'd pay $1,000 above the highest offer.
$150k in North Idaho will get you a single-wide or some preppers half-finished "project" on a half acre....maybe
Same. We paid our 30 year mortgage in about 7 years.
This is where my goals are currently set. Don’t think we’ll be able to do it in 7 years, but the goal is 15 or less. Been in our home just shy of 3 years now and we’ve paid a huge chuck off. The problem we’re facing though is what others have mentioned, the property tax burden will probably force us out of this area at some point.
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$150k in North Idaho will get you a single-wide or some preppers half-finished "project" on a half acre....maybeAbout the same in SE Pa, minus the prepper project. Either something that needs demolishing, even those are creeping up now too. Or a trailer.
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gunnerblue
06-12-21, 07:43
This is where my goals are currently set. Don’t think we’ll be able to do it in 7 years, but the goal is 15 or less. Been in our home just shy of 3 years now and we’ve paid a huge chuck off. The problem we’re facing though is what others have mentioned, the property tax burden will probably force us out of this area at some point.
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For those of you facing property tax issues and own some acreage, look into whether or not your state offers any kind of agricultural development exemptions. My property is classified as a commercial tree farm and I pay next to nothing in property taxes. Every state/jurisdiction is different, I'm sure.
Whatever you think of the current housing market, it's pretty much here to stay...
My wife and I are realtors in south Florida. She has been doing residential real estate for about 12 years and I have been doing commercial for about 6 although the last year or so has been primarily residential as well.
To say the market has been good to us and others in similar situations is an understatement.
Right before covid we bought 4 houses for investment. We were in the process of converting them into duplexes and triplexes to rent out. When covid hit we panicked over the mortgage payments and tried to sell with no buyers. We thought we were done for.
Fast forward a few months and the housing market took off like crazy. All units are rented for top dollar and we are getting cash offers to buy the places in some cases 2.5x what we paid for them, all cash. We did sell 2 of them and turned around to buy 4 condos.
I am explaining our situation because WHO is buying these houses is the problem. Blackrock is one of these outfits along with invitation homes and several others. Most of these are REIT funds where people pool their funds for investment real estate. Some large, like blackrock, some small like a large family.
Their huge advantage is cash. Without worrying about getting loans to pay over-estimate they are just crushing normal home buyers. That’s the reality and every agent knows this. Families looking to buy a home face an uphill battle and are losing.
What no one is talking about is the huge consolidation in the marketing of homes. Zillow is buying up MLS’s across the country. When you list a property on the MLS now and it is published to Zillow the buyer is presented with an agent to contact. Its NOT the listing agent, but a Zillow employee or contractor.
This is a HUGE problem for all involved, especially the buyer.
Zillow charges large fees across the board; the agent, buyer, seller, etc., increasing the closing costs dramatically. In one case we observed they charged 2% in fees on a 600k house. That’s 12k for absolutely nothing. They make it impossible to contact the listing agent directly and we have seen firsthand buyers having their agents call the Zillow agent only to be told they do not work with other agents. They are basically telling buyers to fire their agent, work with the Zillow agent, pay more fees and have less tools for negotiation.
In the end, the buyer pays more, the seller gets less and the agent makes a pittance salary.
This is in addition to Zillow buying up houses themselves BEFORE the house is even presented for public sale. In those cases, you don’t even have a chance. It’s like trying to win the lottery without buying a ticket.
Zillow is crushing the market for everyone. There are several lawsuits in process right now going after the MLS and Zillow for this.
As far as a market “crash”… not gonna happen. This is not the same as 2008. There are no subprime mortgages. No derivative swaps happening. The market got this way because of what you have all seen. Joe Blow in NY sells his house for 1M at a huge profit. He comes down to FL and pays $500k cash for a $450k house. He enjoys nicer weather, lower taxes and no mortgage so has zero incentive to sell.
How will this end? The thought is that interest rates will go up, forcing lower housing prices. If you all recall in the 70’s when the producer price index finally made its way into the consumer price index and inflation went crazy interest rates shot up. Feds raised rates, housing went down to match and the fed burned the cash until inflation stabilized. That’s what they hope will happen again EXCEPT you now have the absolutely vast majority of owners not selling and the absolutely vast majority of buyers paying cash. Therefore no mortgages. If that happens, current housing availability will not increase. In addition, without more mortgages being taken out, inflation will stay high or even go higher. Don’t forget, the largest source of fed inflation tools are in the mortgage industry.
Less transactions = less mortgages = stagnant inflation = less transactions, etc.
What about new construction? As you all have very clearly noticed, it’s nuts. Super expensive materials, ridiculous lead times, etc. The same type of consolidation will likely happen in that market. I read a couple of posts from members in the building material industry, one whose father owns a mill. Can you ask him if he’s been approached by a developer to buy his operation? I can guarantee that they have. Likely Alliance partners or Toll brothers. They are buying up the entire supply industry to keep their operations going. What do you think will happen when these companies own everything? That local home builder? Crushed due to material cost or just the complete lack of it as the developer is hoarding it all. Loans? Forget it. Ever try to buy a developer’s house? They have their own lending agencies and set their own ridiculous terms.
Even ACE hardware is expanding their building materials. They are snapping up suppliers and not even offering these products to their retail customers or even small home builders. Google it. It’s a paradigm shift for the company and the home builders that no one even knows about.
Sorry to be all doom and gloom, but this will only get worse. Not just the near term, but for decades and likely a generation. As crappy as it sounds, it’s still the best time to buy because tomorrow will be even worse.
If you are in south Florida and have any real estate questions, I’ll be happy to help a fellow member out. This isn’t a commercial and I’m not trying to pimp myself out. I’m pretty busy as it is, but I see a lot of the same pain first time home buyers are going through that we did and my wife and I do try to help as much as possible. Sometime a 15 minute phone call can ease one’s mind much better than a Google search.
Good luck all!
above post AKA the great reset you will own nothing and be happy !
well the you will own nothing will be true :)
also homes are generational wealth and often how wealth is passed down if they take that out of the equation game over !
was just chatting about blackrock last night with a buddy ! where they are buying up complete communities at times
still debating about heading over to portugal and having a nice vacation home :)
I do think we are going to see a housing crash but the amount of drop will be small compared to how much it has gone up
Some states freeze the property tax at age 65 so that you continue to pay what you paid at 65 but increases in value do not cause the taxes to go up (and tax-price you out of your home). These freezes are generally specific to primary residences and not investment properties and often not for adjunct properties belonging to the residential -- ie, a hay field adjacent to the residential property, both owned and considered one proerty by the owner, wouldn't be frozen.
Here in Tennessee counties can choose to allow property owners ages 65 and older to freeze their taxes at current levels. That's been since 2006. No problems with sustainability, even with all the Covid nonsense. IIRC, our county budget shortfall during the midst of the pandemic was a mere $70 per capita. Peanuts. Anyway... the idea is to not burden those who are retired with limited income during their remaining years above dirt. Do ya really wanna squeeze some poor elderly guy on SS for additional property taxes? The good people of Hamilton County answered, no. Income limits are by county, they range from 30-55k. For those who wish to pay higher property taxes they're free to not apply. They can pay higher taxes on increased assessed property values if it helps them sleep better at night. We're very accommodating.
I misunderstood the "freeze" part. In our area they are tax free up to $250,000 of value on their primary residence.
friend in Naples FL just bought a house last year and they just sold it made $400k
figured they will just go build another
they are big money real estate already so know who how what kinda thing to do it again
Coal Dragger
06-12-21, 19:35
Whatever you think of the current housing market, it's pretty much here to stay...
My wife and I are realtors in south Florida. She has been doing residential real estate for about 12 years and I have been doing commercial for about 6 although the last year or so has been primarily residential as well.
To say the market has been good to us and others in similar situations is an understatement.
Right before covid we bought 4 houses for investment. We were in the process of converting them into duplexes and triplexes to rent out. When covid hit we panicked over the mortgage payments and tried to sell with no buyers. We thought we were done for.
Fast forward a few months and the housing market took off like crazy. All units are rented for top dollar and we are getting cash offers to buy the places in some cases 2.5x what we paid for them, all cash. We did sell 2 of them and turned around to buy 4 condos.
I am explaining our situation because WHO is buying these houses is the problem. Blackrock is one of these outfits along with invitation homes and several others. Most of these are REIT funds where people pool their funds for investment real estate. Some large, like blackrock, some small like a large family.
Their huge advantage is cash. Without worrying about getting loans to pay over-estimate they are just crushing normal home buyers. That’s the reality and every agent knows this. Families looking to buy a home face an uphill battle and are losing.
What no one is talking about is the huge consolidation in the marketing of homes. Zillow is buying up MLS’s across the country. When you list a property on the MLS now and it is published to Zillow the buyer is presented with an agent to contact. Its NOT the listing agent, but a Zillow employee or contractor.
This is a HUGE problem for all involved, especially the buyer.
Zillow charges large fees across the board; the agent, buyer, seller, etc., increasing the closing costs dramatically. In one case we observed they charged 2% in fees on a 600k house. That’s 12k for absolutely nothing. They make it impossible to contact the listing agent directly and we have seen firsthand buyers having their agents call the Zillow agent only to be told they do not work with other agents. They are basically telling buyers to fire their agent, work with the Zillow agent, pay more fees and have less tools for negotiation.
In the end, the buyer pays more, the seller gets less and the agent makes a pittance salary.
This is in addition to Zillow buying up houses themselves BEFORE the house is even presented for public sale. In those cases, you don’t even have a chance. It’s like trying to win the lottery without buying a ticket.
Zillow is crushing the market for everyone. There are several lawsuits in process right now going after the MLS and Zillow for this.
As far as a market “crash”… not gonna happen. This is not the same as 2008. There are no subprime mortgages. No derivative swaps happening. The market got this way because of what you have all seen. Joe Blow in NY sells his house for 1M at a huge profit. He comes down to FL and pays $500k cash for a $450k house. He enjoys nicer weather, lower taxes and no mortgage so has zero incentive to sell.
How will this end? The thought is that interest rates will go up, forcing lower housing prices. If you all recall in the 70’s when the producer price index finally made its way into the consumer price index and inflation went crazy interest rates shot up. Feds raised rates, housing went down to match and the fed burned the cash until inflation stabilized. That’s what they hope will happen again EXCEPT you now have the absolutely vast majority of owners not selling and the absolutely vast majority of buyers paying cash. Therefore no mortgages. If that happens, current housing availability will not increase. In addition, without more mortgages being taken out, inflation will stay high or even go higher. Don’t forget, the largest source of fed inflation tools are in the mortgage industry.
Less transactions = less mortgages = stagnant inflation = less transactions, etc.
What about new construction? As you all have very clearly noticed, it’s nuts. Super expensive materials, ridiculous lead times, etc. The same type of consolidation will likely happen in that market. I read a couple of posts from members in the building material industry, one whose father owns a mill. Can you ask him if he’s been approached by a developer to buy his operation? I can guarantee that they have. Likely Alliance partners or Toll brothers. They are buying up the entire supply industry to keep their operations going. What do you think will happen when these companies own everything? That local home builder? Crushed due to material cost or just the complete lack of it as the developer is hoarding it all. Loans? Forget it. Ever try to buy a developer’s house? They have their own lending agencies and set their own ridiculous terms.
Even ACE hardware is expanding their building materials. They are snapping up suppliers and not even offering these products to their retail customers or even small home builders. Google it. It’s a paradigm shift for the company and the home builders that no one even knows about.
Sorry to be all doom and gloom, but this will only get worse. Not just the near term, but for decades and likely a generation. As crappy as it sounds, it’s still the best time to buy because tomorrow will be even worse.
If you are in south Florida and have any real estate questions, I’ll be happy to help a fellow member out. This isn’t a commercial and I’m not trying to pimp myself out. I’m pretty busy as it is, but I see a lot of the same pain first time home buyers are going through that we did and my wife and I do try to help as much as possible. Sometime a 15 minute phone call can ease one’s mind much better than a Google search.
Good luck all!
At some point no one other than large investors buy homes. Then what? Blackrock is going to be in the business of renting houses? Or sitting on unsold inventory? Eventually normal people simply won’t be able or willing to afford the property that these outfits are scooping up.
In 2008 everyone thought the hull market on housing would last forever too.
Even ACE hardware is expanding their building materials. They are snapping up suppliers and not even offering these products to their retail customers or even small home builders. Google it. It’s a paradigm shift for the company and the home builders that no one even knows about
I'm courted by Ace quarterly to join their co-op. Lumber is a big part of my business. Do you have a link related to this? I've attempted to Google and have found zilch.
I am currently a member of the Do-It-Best co-op and we crush ACE in the LBM world with about double the lumber sales that Ace has. Home Depot sold 11 billion dollars of lumber in 2020.. that is nearly the amount of TOTAL sales (all categories) that Ace and Do-it-Best had in 2020. To put it in perspective, Ace and Do-It-Bests total wholesale dollars in lumber was about 1.2 billion.
Ace is awash in debt, but 2020 did strengthen them. I haven't joined them because I was part of the True Value debacle that ended badly and Ace's finances look awfully familiar to those True Value had before they were bought up by an investment firm. Do-It-Best, even though it doesn't have the same national recognition, operates incredibly efficiently and even in Alaska they are able to provide me with lumber pricing that I actually have zero issues competing with Depot, Lowes, or the local pro yards.
At some point no one other than large investors buy homes. Then what? Blackrock is going to be in the business of renting houses? Or sitting on unsold inventory? Eventually normal people simply won’t be able or willing to afford the property that these outfits are scooping up.
In 2008 everyone thought the hull market on housing would last forever too.
yes renting think shorting housing market like stock and controlling pricing so regular guy has no chance
remember they have almost $9 trillion in assets !
also hedge against market collapse some are saying is going to happen ? and of course massive control of people many hedgies are about power they have the money but power is huge to them
For those of you facing property tax issues and own some acreage, look into whether or not your state offers any kind of agricultural development exemptions. My property is classified as a commercial tree farm and I pay next to nothing in property taxes. Every state/jurisdiction is different, I'm sure.
My wife’s parents live in Florida and homesteaded their property 20+ years ago. Great option that has saved them a lot of money in taxes over the years.
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The_War_Wagon
06-13-21, 06:18
All part of the Great Reset. You’ll nothing and you’ll like it.
And you'll LIVE where THEY tell you to.
friend in Naples FL just bought a house last year and they just sold it made $400k
This was common in the prior real estate booms in Florida. And a bunch of people made a lot of money.
But it never lasts, and you don't hear people talk about when they got stuck upside down on a property. Which also happened commonly in the prior booms.
My brother lives in the Florida keys and my parents did as well for a long time. During the time they've been there there has been at least three boom/bust cycles and it looks like another one is underway.
Property in Florida appreciates over time, as does most property. Due to inflation if nothing else.
But when people start building / buying homes just to flip them with no improvements made is usually a sign of overheated market. Too much money chasing limited inventory.
At the peak of the last bust I knew people getting interest only balloon loans on high end homes, lived in them for a year, then sold them for enough to pay off the interest plus make a profit. Worked great until the bottom fell out.
People in the keys who leveraged themselves to speculatively buy condos for $800k which 12 mths later were worth half that.
And that was not due to sub-prime loans, though those did contribute to the speed of the balloon.
At some point no one other than large investors buy homes. Then what? Blackrock is going to be in the business of renting houses? Or sitting on unsold inventory? Eventually normal people simply won’t be able or willing to afford the property that these outfits are scooping up.
In 2008 everyone thought the hull market on housing would last forever too.Rent.
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Averageman
06-13-21, 12:20
All this while we have people living out of tents and campers?
When did we collectively lose our minds?
We live with a vacant corner lot to our north which we own half for 40 years. Old farm plot with an odd diagonal border. The other owner from the farm house behind us died and it went for auction. A local hack contractor purchased the .25 acres for $48k in the auction. Should have never gone more than $18k. He's going to start construction in a cramped frontage in a week or two to sell quickly. So building materials are up what 30-40%? Properties are going quick here, maybe a day or two they are sold. Someone is going to take huge soaking on this property.
FromMyColdDeadHand
06-13-21, 13:30
I think the capital guys have figured out that even if housing ‘pops’, if they hold on for 5-10 years, that they’ll get good returns as inflation picks up. If inflation doesn’t pick up, they still come out ok. with or with out inflation we probably will see a recession in the next 24-36 months as things snap back to reality. With the fed at near zero rates, who knows what kind of funky ness they will try next when things slow down.
Also, I don’t know if they are reading the tea leaves and can tell that real estate or REITs will have better tax rates. Also, if the worst comes and assets are taken, it is harder to take real assets like land and property than straight financial instruments.
And you'll LIVE where THEY tell you to.
when they own most the homes will be easy !
sorry we won't rent to you cause you are ...........
Diamondback
06-13-21, 16:17
And you'll LIVE where THEY tell you to.
"You will own NOTHING and you will LIKE it..."
Business_Casual
06-13-21, 18:20
All part of the Great Reset. You’ll nothing and you’ll like it.
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I see what you did there.
But when people start building / buying homes just to flip them with no improvements made is usually a sign of overheated market. Too much money chasing limited inventory.
Does it every time. All that "flip this house" BS. You can't simply put in granite counter tops and a new coat of paint and expect to get what amounts to an average persons yearly income and have it last forever.
For years I had to listen to "Bought it for $125k, worked on it for 60 days with $30k worth of materials and sold it for $225k." But when the day came that it was "Shit...I own 5 houses that I paid $150 each for and I can't sell them for even half that" they really couldn't figure out what went wrong.
Only drug dealers make $100k for two months work and even that doesn't last forever. But people actually expected to make $600,000+ plus a year and the gravy train never stopped.
Averageman
06-13-21, 21:11
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZ2N78dxzm4
This guy has some good observations concerning Retail business, Commercial Real Estate and crazy values.
Yeah they are not home flippers but also not stupid to make a quick $400k and move on cant blame them either
This was common in the prior real estate booms in Florida. And a bunch of people made a lot of money.
But it never lasts, and you don't hear people talk about when they got stuck upside down on a property. Which also happened commonly in the prior booms.
My brother lives in the Florida keys and my parents did as well for a long time. During the time they've been there there has been at least three boom/bust cycles and it looks like another one is underway.
Property in Florida appreciates over time, as does most property. Due to inflation if nothing else.
But when people start building / buying homes just to flip them with no improvements made is usually a sign of overheated market. Too much money chasing limited inventory.
At the peak of the last bust I knew people getting interest only balloon loans on high end homes, lived in them for a year, then sold them for enough to pay off the interest plus make a profit. Worked great until the bottom fell out.
People in the keys who leveraged themselves to speculatively buy condos for $800k which 12 mths later were worth half that.
And that was not due to sub-prime loans, though those did contribute to the speed of the balloon.
And you'll LIVE where THEY tell you to.
I listened to a podcast a few months ago from Am Security Proj and that was their general consensus. “Well since the Gulf has hurricanes, Cali has fires and the mountains have snow just move everyone to cities where they can be protected.” That’s paraphrased.
We live with a vacant corner lot to our north which we own half for 40 years. Old farm plot with an odd diagonal border. The other owner from the farm house behind us died and it went for auction. A local hack contractor purchased the .25 acres for $48k in the auction. Should have never gone more than $18k. He's going to start construction in a cramped frontage in a week or two to sell quickly. So building materials are up what 30-40%? Properties are going quick here, maybe a day or two they are sold. Someone is going to take huge soaking on this property.
If it adjoins your property offer to buy it for $20k
brickboy240
06-14-21, 14:02
The people that my realtor friends tell me are buying the houses in Houston are not corporations or REITs, but people fleeing CA, NY and IL.
My cousin says it is almost 3 to 1 transplants to native TX buyers that he is signing deal for. Frightening.....because this the type of migration that ruined places like OR, AZ and CO.
I laugh and joke to him that he better hope he never runs out of transplants to sell our houses to.
My problem is...I am a native Texan and love our culture and state and was not planning on leaving. However, if the cost of living in TX and the political climate changes, we might be forced to leave.
Depressing....when I think about it for too long. There is next to nothing we can do to stop this trend.
If it adjoins your property offer to buy it for $20k
It does, the contractor is a real a$$hole. He seems to think this will be his retirement fund when he sells. I bet he would have paid 100k if the auction went that high. Maybe I will ask for the hell of it ;)
It does, the contractor is a real a$$hole. He seems to think this will be his retirement fund when he sells. I bet he would have paid 100k if the auction went that high. Maybe I will ask for the hell of it ;)
or get ahold of some audubon society say you saw some rare owl or tortoise on it and watch em lock up the use of the land to building homes :) hahahhaahah
half joke half real :)
Does it every time. All that "flip this house" BS. You can't simply put in granite counter tops and a new coat of paint and expect to get what amounts to an average persons yearly income and have it last forever.
For years I had to listen to "Bought it for $125k, worked on it for 60 days with $30k worth of materials and sold it for $225k." But when the day came that it was "Shit...I own 5 houses that I paid $150 each for and I can't sell them for even half that" they really couldn't figure out what went wrong.
Only drug dealers make $100k for two months work and even that doesn't last forever. But people actually expected to make $600,000+ plus a year and the gravy train never stopped.Actually yes. Just have to know your area and the trends. I have friends that have been doing this since early 00s. 20 or so years of flipping houses and living well. Will it end? Probably but at this point they have a carrier out of it.
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ChattanoogaPhil
06-16-21, 12:24
Real estate, equities, business... timing is important. Anyone can sit on the sidelines and predict eventual downturns.
FromMyColdDeadHand
06-16-21, 12:33
I know building materials are tight now, but at normal prices, what does it cost to build. I know there are different levels of finish- do you just spec by level is so much per square foot. How much does the complexity of the build matter?
I know that the stop on house building last year and the price of new building materials are both driving current house prices. But houses will be built and materials will come back down in price. Prices have to get back to some kind of balance with current building. I know land is limited, but especially in our area, there are a lot of scapes&builds. How much does it cost to take down a 3000sqft house?
I'm not looking for price quotes, just a general idea of cost to see how far off the prices are.
FromMyColdDeadHand
06-20-21, 01:46
Didn't know that the FED was still screwing around that much in capital markets.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/19/business/inflation-housing-market-federal-reserve/index.html
The people that my realtor friends tell me are buying the houses in Houston are not corporations or REITs, but people fleeing CA, NY and IL.
My cousin says it is almost 3 to 1 transplants to native TX buyers that he is signing deal for. Frightening.....because this the type of migration that ruined places like OR, AZ and CO.
I laugh and joke to him that he better hope he never runs out of transplants to sell our houses to.
My problem is...I am a native Texan and love our culture and state and was not planning on leaving. However, if the cost of living in TX and the political climate changes, we might be forced to leave.
Depressing....when I think about it for too long. There is next to nothing we can do to stop this trend.
Even more depressing is that all the places to “go to” are having insurgencies of progressives, that are ruining them.
I bought a property in Wyoming as part of my long term transition to get out of CO, got it just before the scamdemic hit, property values there are skyrocketing as well from all the asshole NY’ers and Cali pricks relocating there also.
I thought for sure Wyoming would be the last place it would happen due to the wind and winters, but they’ve already started showing up like locusts.
There won’t be anywhere to go, soon. It’ll come down to submission or ammunition one way or another.
My CO house value is insane. I get offers all the time, people will leave me letters and one couple even knocked on my door.
It’s infuriating.
One the other end of the spectrum is all the tent city’s going up all over the Denver area and even some places in the burbs.
Disgusting drug addict 20 and 30 somethings just destroying and shitting on everything they come in contact with.
Even more depressing is that all the places to “go to” are having insurgencies of progressives, that are ruining them.
I bought a property in Wyoming as part of my long term transition to get out of CO, got it just before the scamdemic hit, property values there are skyrocketing as well from all the asshole NY’ers and Cali pricks relocating there also.
I thought for sure Wyoming would be the last place it would happen due to the wind and winters, but they’ve already started showing up like locusts.
There won’t be anywhere to go, soon. It’ll come down to submission or ammunition one way or another.
My CO house value is insane. I get offers all the time, people will leave me letters and one couple even knocked on my door.
It’s infuriating.
One the other end of the spectrum is all the tent city’s going up all over the Denver area and even some places in the burbs.
Disgusting drug addict 20 and 30 somethings just destroying and shitting on everything they come in contact with.
I don't know where in Wyoming you're looking to go, but I can tell you that the metropolitan areas are almost as bad as any metropolitan area and any other state with regard to influx of liberals. Maybe not to quite the extent, but it's happening.
FromMyColdDeadHand
06-20-21, 12:03
Even more depressing is that all the places to “go to” are having insurgencies of progressives, that are ruining them.
I bought a property in Wyoming as part of my long term transition to get out of CO, got it just before the scamdemic hit, property values there are skyrocketing as well from all the asshole NY’ers and Cali pricks relocating there also.
I thought for sure Wyoming would be the last place it would happen due to the wind and winters, but they’ve already started showing up like locusts.
There won’t be anywhere to go, soon. It’ll come down to submission or ammunition one way or another.
My CO house value is insane. I get offers all the time, people will leave me letters and one couple even knocked on my door.
It’s infuriating.
One the other end of the spectrum is all the tent city’s going up all over the Denver area and even some places in the burbs.
Disgusting drug addict 20 and 30 somethings just destroying and shitting on everything they come in contact with.
And that new gun law prememption is going to hurt, hard.
I don't know where in Wyoming you're looking to go, but I can tell you that the metropolitan areas are almost as bad as any metropolitan area and any other state with regard to influx of liberals. Maybe not to quite the extent, but it's happening.
CO property was so crazy I thought I'd look at around Jackson. Sweet Jesus, I thought CO was insane. Remember, that is a second home to most, so they'll skip a lot of the winter that they don't want to ski in. The problem with WY is that is seems to be gorgeous and expensive or flat, boring and cheap. And not that close. At least Jackson has big planes going from DEN.
I'm looking at this progressive attack on white people- from trying to purge the LEO and MIL ranks of conservatives and put CRT in the heads that remain. Realizing that as white kids they are going to have low draft positions. My thought was govt jobs for them, but they will get outed and removed. I've started looking at places for them to get dual citizenship. Someplace that won't make the multicultural miscalculation that we did here- and that the dollar goes pretty far. Ireland maybe, Poland probably better. Just get them a good bolthole option in case this place goes full South Africa/Belgian Congo. We does the left hate the their country, us, and frankly themselves so much that they have to screw it up? Of course this is if the current arc of my wife's and my earnings pan out, and we leave them with some buy-in money, but who knows what kind of inheritance tax we will be facing.
brickboy240
06-21-21, 13:47
Sounds like Denver looks a lot like Austin, Texas.
I would not consider "escaping" TX for WY. Too cold and yeah, the housing prices were shocking in the not-so-sexy areas.
I am just pissed that TX is deteriorating. I was not planning on leaving this state, ever, but the influx of CA and NY people and the high property taxes are making us totally re-think our retirement plans.
Sounds like Denver looks a lot like Austin, Texas.
I would not consider "escaping" TX for WY. Too cold and yeah, the housing prices were shocking in the not-so-sexy areas.
I am just pissed that TX is deteriorating. I was not planning on leaving this state, ever, but the influx of CA and NY people and the high property taxes are making us totally re-think our retirement plans.
Same for NC. Used to be solid red. Even the democrats were old 'Dixiecrats', strong 2A, etc. Not anymore. The I-85/40 corridor? Fuhgetaboutit. There is a strong correlation with immigration from the north and west coast to our cities, and subsequent property values.
I love NC. I was born here, gone off and on in the military (came back to Camp Lejeune every time I could), my mom's family were some of the first people in eastern NC. I don't want to leave. But it's definitely not the same that it was.
The real question people should be asking if their states are being taken over by the progressive blue plague is this: "Where can I go?"
Where? They are infesting every traditionally red state like locusts and out breeding Conservatives. They inject themselves into local politics and fvck everything up and have all the time in the world to just push their BS on everyone else- living off of .gov money either from welfare programs or college loans, or .gov jobs they just soak it all up and have the time to be active in politics whereas I am working my ass off to provide for my family and pay for their shit!
They infest the city centers and control the rural lands through numbers and force their politics and laws on everyone in the state- it's wrong and unjust, but reality right now.
It's infuriating.
So where do you go?
Where in this country won't be turned into shit from the progressive blue plague?
That's the real pandemic we are facing, much more dangerous and deadly than the CoofRona.
I used to love Colorado, I mean really love her, but now I hate, HATE it with a passion, what it has become is enough to make me snap. I've become a stranger in a place I once called home, I'm not even welcome here anymore.
Where can I go that won't see the same thing happen?
I used to think Texas, Idaho or Montana- but saw the writing on the wall, then Wyoming, writing on the wall... Where?
I'm looking for Galt's Gulch right about now.
FromMyColdDeadHand
06-21-21, 16:41
Utah, Salt Lake City? Sure you have rhino GOP like Romney, and those people can go back to progressive in a heartbeat, but I don’t know if it would go Democrat. Maybe the Mormon influence and less alcohol, and no weed? Will make the California locusts stay away.
Utah, Salt Lake City? Sure you have rhino GOP like Romney, and those people can go back to progressive in a heartbeat, but I don’t know if it would go Democrat. Maybe the Mormon influence and less alcohol, and no weed? Will make the California locusts stay away.
Salt Lake is already turned the corner and is Liberal. 43% in the last election voted democratic ticket.
Salt Lake County was 53% Democratic vote.
The progressive blue Plague already hit there.
It's the same as everywhere else, progressive island in Salt Lake City surrounded by a sea of Red/Conservative voters who have been silenced and disenfranchised...
Salt Lake is already turned the corner and is Liberal. 43% in the last election voted democratic ticket.
Salt Lake County was 53% Democratic vote.
The progressive blue Plague already hit there.
It's the same as everywhere else, progressive island in Salt Lake City surrounded by a sea of Red/Conservative voters who have been silenced and disenfranchised...
Yet because of the ways the districts were made, the US Representative that covers SLC, who was a 1-term democrat, was unseated by Burgess Owens, a (black) Republican.
The state itself is pretty conservative, with the Blue Blight around SLC. A lot of the rest of the county is red, though the population density is more in the city itself...
The people that my realtor friends tell me are buying the houses in Houston are not corporations or REITs, but people fleeing CA, NY and IL.
My cousin says it is almost 3 to 1 transplants to native TX buyers that he is signing deal for. Frightening.....because this the type of migration that ruined places like OR, AZ and CO.
I laugh and joke to him that he better hope he never runs out of transplants to sell our houses to.
My problem is...I am a native Texan and love our culture and state and was not planning on leaving. However, if the cost of living in TX and the political climate changes, we might be forced to leave.
Depressing....when I think about it for too long. There is next to nothing we can do to stop this trend.
I’m right there with you, just in Dallas.
been kinda looking in Portugal :)
Utah, Salt Lake City? Sure you have rhino GOP like Romney, and those people can go back to progressive in a heartbeat, but I don’t know if it would go Democrat. Maybe the Mormon influence and less alcohol, and no weed? Will make the California locusts stay away.
If I have to live in SLC or someplace just to maintain my "normal existence" I might as well just start stacking bodies.
FromMyColdDeadHand
06-22-21, 04:38
If I have to live in SLC or someplace just to maintain my "normal existence" I might as well just start stacking bodies.
Interestingly enough, that was the runner up for the Chamber of COmmerce’s slogan to promote SLC. From the same people that wrote “Nebraska, it’s not for everyone.”
Of course, I’m trying to stay low humidity and gator free.
ffhounddog
06-22-21, 07:28
I just sold my my house in VA because in March I took a job in SC. I got deployed overseas in May so I hope that house prices start falling in March - April 2022.
The real question people should be asking if their states are being taken over by the progressive blue plague is this: "Where can I go?"
Where? They are infesting every traditionally red state like locusts and out breeding Conservatives. They inject themselves into local politics and fvck everything up and have all the time in the world to just push their BS on everyone else- living off of .gov money either from welfare programs or college loans, or .gov jobs they just soak it all up and have the time to be active in politics whereas I am working my ass off to provide for my family and pay for their shit!
They infest the city centers and control the rural lands through numbers and force their politics and laws on everyone in the state- it's wrong and unjust, but reality right now.
It's infuriating.
So where do you go?
Where in this country won't be turned into shit from the progressive blue plague?
That's the real pandemic we are facing, much more dangerous and deadly than the CoofRona.
I used to love Colorado, I mean really love her, but now I hate, HATE it with a passion, what it has become is enough to make me snap. I've become a stranger in a place I once called home, I'm not even welcome here anymore.
Where can I go that won't see the same thing happen?
I used to think Texas, Idaho or Montana- but saw the writing on the wall, then Wyoming, writing on the wall... Where?
I'm looking for Galt's Gulch right about now.
Great questions, great points. In NC there are still plenty of rural areas that are deep red. Me, I am jonesing to go back 'down east' to a rural area, place on a creek or small river that is a tributary to something bigger that flows out to a sound and to the sea. Little john boat or Carolina skiff.
I am sure other states are the same.
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