View Full Version : Covid economy, jobs, unemployment and dead grandparents
FromMyColdDeadHand
10-10-21, 23:42
We all know that the government has been shoving money into the economy like never before, especially directly to people. It was thought that this money was keeping people from working, but now they say that with the benefits ending people aren’t going back to work. Frankly I think they handed out so much money and there was not much to spend your money on for so long that I think a lot of people may be sitting on a bit of a stock pile. But one thing I haven’t heard anybody talk aboutIs the fact that a large portion of people to Covid that were older. Many of them in an untimely manner. I wonder if that transfer of wealth is helping to soften the blow and keeping people on the margins from not going back to work.
There has to be some kind of affect. I haven’t heard anybody look at that though.
Morbid, I know. But it’s economics.
Like I said in the other thread about China and the release of Covid, I’m surprised they didn’t let it run more wild there and help them solve their population pyramid problem.
I lost friend #6 to COVID-19 last Friday. All of those who died from the Chi-Com virus were 48 to 61 years of age. I guess a few could have left money in their wills to offspring, which would supplement the government handouts.
Averageman
10-11-21, 09:06
Well depending on circumstances, this might be the worst time to inherate some monies.
Some folks, wealthy folks have spent a year or so taking it up the keister. You own rental properties and suddenly the rent stops being paid, but the mortage still needs to be paid, so now you've got nothing coming in. So Daddy Warbucks might be close to broke.
Add on to that the now onerous tax that's going to be put on anything you could possibly get.
Naaah, people are overextended, they're borrowing everything they can leverdge to stay home from work, I mean really? What could go wrong?
FromMyColdDeadHand
10-11-21, 09:41
Well depending on circumstances, this might be the worst time to inherate some monies.
Some folks, wealthy folks have spent a year or so taking it up the keister. You own rental properties and suddenly the rent stops being paid, but the mortage still needs to be paid, so now you've got nothing coming in. So Daddy Warbucks might be close to broke.
Add on to that the now onerous tax that's going to be put on anything you could possibly get.
Naaah, people are overextended, they're borrowing everything they can leverdge to stay home from work, I mean really? What could go wrong?
I do think that there is a lot of rent money being blown on other things, but from what I remember, household savings is up with debt down- but that is in the aggregate. There are probably a lot of people that go themselves into, or were forced into, financial jams.
This transitory inflation is starting to look like that two weeks to crush the virus….
SomeOtherGuy
10-11-21, 13:34
Karl Denninger thinks the employees are missing because they are dead. Seriously. Somewhat hard to decipher data for his argument:
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=243839
Here's all-cause US excess mortality, FWIW.
https://www.usmortality.com/excess
Here's a discussion of huge excess mortality in the Netherlands and the UK, excluding deaths attributed to Covid-19 illness:
https://www.rintrah.nl/too-many-people-are-dying-and-its-starting-to-worry-the-demographers/
@colddeadhand, I think your idea is plausible to the extent of deaths among people leaving significant estates, but that's only a small part of the deaths. And a lot of those elderly left money to people who were themselves already retired or very near retirement. My grandmother passed in early 2020 (not Covid!) and her estate was just distributed to... two kids already fully retired, and one still working for now, but retiring in the next 1-2 years at around 65. People are living longer and prior generations usually had kids pretty young, so someone dying at 80-90 often has heirs who are 60+.
That was true up until a few months ago, but that money got spent. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT
That stockpile you referred to is largely what sparked the recovery in retail sales over the summer, but it's gone.
As for why people aren't going back to work, it's because the jobs simply aren't there. The jobs available data is a complete fabrication. So are the wage increases. The only jobs that recovered and increased wages are service sector entry level positions (e.g. fast food).
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm
If you filter that data by age, you can see that the 16-19 range is the only demographic to regain full employment, and obviously they're not out there landing skilled or graduate level jobs. Meanwhile, men and women 20 and older didn't recover any jobs at all since the initial, lackluster return to work after the end of the lockdowns.
Why aren't they taking jobs that they can get? Because those jobs won't pay the bills. Even if they went to work full time at McDonalds, even at 20/h, that still wouldn't pay their liabilities. So they have no incentive to go back to work until they can return to full employment at their professional level jobs.
The bottom line is you can't have an economy based on entry level jobs. An economy is like a food chain. You need all levels, and removing any level causes the whole thing to collapse. Income equality is literally a natural impossibility. Any economy without a middle class is like a snake eating its own tail. You need those high earners to consume the services produced by the casual workers who are in college, mothers working part time, etc. Without a very strong middle class, you can't have a services sector period. Look at any economy that shed its middle class, namely Soviet Russia, and you will see a complete absence of a services sector.
In other words, that increase in service sector jobs won't last long, either. Without a middle class to support them, they won't be able to survive, even if they return to skeleton crews paid minimum wage.
As for inheritance, I don't know. It's long been thought that as boomers retire and pass on, that millennials will inherit large sums of money. The problem with that is that historically wealth doesn't transfer to the next generation. Especially now when medical costs are so high, and boomers have such dire health conditions compared to their parents. Many if not most have leveraged their wealth, and there won't be much left when they're gone. What's left will get split up between siblings and squandered for the most part. I've heard figures suggesting that as little as one fourteenth survives a decade after inheritance.
The really scary part is that the boomers who actually have high net worth, many are small businessmen and landlords. And most times those businesses and properties are either run into the ground by their kids, or simply liquidated and the funds used for a new car and a Caribbean cruise. Part of that is the failing economy, part of it is the kids' inability to reinvent their parents' vision to provide services for the next generation. That's another aspect to inheritance is that oftentimes the market that made their parents wealthy no longer exists due to shifts in culture and technology, and the business was pretty much played out by the time the kids inherited it, meaning liquidating the assets was about their only option.
So while many millennials will be expecting a little windfall, it's nothing life changing in most cases, and the transition will almost certainly cause a shrink in GDP when all those small businesses get liquidated. Obviously this doesn't happen all at once. It's something that will take several decades to play out. So you'll see millennials getting little windfalls here and there, but also the loss of GDP due to them removing their parents' businesses from the economy. So in the short term it will even out I think, and in the long term be a huge loss to the economy.
There was a sitcom in Canada called Kim's Convenience that I think is extremely spot on in terms of how the next generation is treating their parents' small businesses. Basically it's the story of how these two kids want absolutely nothing to do with their parents' convenience store that they built from scratch, and how they both go out and get dead end careers that contribute nothing to the economy, much less to themselves. The son washes cars, and the daughter goes out and becomes a youth counselor for a non profit, in both cases because they consider themselves to be far too woke to be small businessmen like their socially backwards parents. Of course what the sitcom doesn't show is the predictable end result where the store dies when the parents retire, and thus the kids' actual source of income, which will naturally make them turn to the state for financial assistance.
So yea, that's the future. Anyone expecting some miracle in terms of GDP as a result of boomers dying will be sorely disappointed. And also keep in mind that I didn't say a word about increased government regulations and taxes on businessmen and landlords, that millennial heirs will have to contend with, that their parents didn't.
FromMyColdDeadHand
10-11-21, 16:08
I work for a midwestern manufacturing company and we can’t get people to show up for job openings. We are throwing money at the problem. $20/hr is $40k per year- that’s better than nothing- and white collar jobs didn’t take the hit that the service industry front line workers did. Crap, I’ve been busier the last two years than the past as we had to support real world and on-line activity in varying amounts. I don’t know what our starting hourly wage is, but I do know you can get as much overtime as you want too- and 10 years ago some of our operators were making over $100k.
I do think that people are turning their noses at entry level jobs. Maybe living with mom and dad- or probably not paying the rent. This economy won’t be truly measured until the rent issue comes full circle. The young have been told for 25 years that they can’t get ahead, so I think a greater fraction believe it and are just not willing to play the game.
On the excess deaths, that page for the US seems low to me, as in it is lower than the reported US COVID deaths. It is also a fraction of a percent of population, so how that can that lead to millions of infilled jobs.
As for why people aren't going back to work, it's because the jobs simply aren't there. The jobs available data is a complete fabrication. So are the wage increases. The only jobs that recovered and increased wages are service sector entry level positions (e.g. fast food).
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm
If you filter that data by age, you can see that the 16-19 range is the only demographic to regain full employment, and obviously they're not out there landing skilled or graduate level jobs. Meanwhile, men and women 20 and older didn't recover any jobs at all since the initial, lackluster return to work after the end of the lockdowns.
Can't agree with any of that. (other than the part about fast food jobs paying more lately)
I see help wanted signs everywhere and know many companies that can't find good help. Trucking driver shortages, construction worker shortages, healthcare worker shortages, etc.
Also, (at least here) The so called lock downs were a joke. Nearly everyone was considered 'essential'. Even freaking fast food workers... Since when is fast food 'essential'???
Lots of members on this site just like me that never missed a single day due to any sort of lockdown garbage.
Can't agree with any of that. (other than the part about fast food jobs paying more lately)
I see help wanted signs everywhere and know many companies that can't find good help. Trucking driver shortages, construction worker shortages, healthcare worker shortages, etc.
Also, (at least here) The so called lock downs were a joke. Nearly everyone was considered 'essential'. Even freaking fast food workers... Since when is fast food 'essential'???
Lots of members on this site just like me that never missed a single day due to any sort of lockdown garbage.
The trucker shortage is partly due to a lot of CDLs and hazmat certifications getting pulled for past criminal histories. All the sudden they started heavily scrutinizing the drivers.
Healthcare worker shortages are largely due to the vaccine mandates.
There's also a lot of smoke and mirrors because the official numbers are assuming hiring capacity should be at normal levels, when in fact employers are operating understaffed and have no plans of getting fully staffed. I'm not saying there aren't some understaffed areas of the economy, but they're narrow, and they're being put in the spotlight to give the appearance of representing hiring conditions across the board.
The truth is though that a lot of people can't just go out and be a truck driver because they went to school for engineering and have 50k in student loans they have to pay down, along with a mortgage and car loans. If they get a truck driver job paying 20/h, they're going to be underwater, whereas with unemployment and frozen loan payments they're treading okay for the moment. That's a huge part of all this is that a lot of these people, if they go back to work, suddenly have to start making payments again on various debt they've accumulated. You would be amazed how many people who are currently treading water would drown if they went back to work at a lower paying job.
The bottom line is the data doesn't lie (unless we're talking jobs available). Employment participation tells the entire story, as does velocity. For the majority of the unemployed, suitable employment simply isn't available for one reason or another. And of the currently employed, their jobs are becoming increasingly less suitable as time goes on.
There are a lot of jobs available in our area. Signs are posted everywhere stating help wanted at $17 to $19 per hour to start.
Gabriel556
10-11-21, 23:36
Same in my area. You can start just about any fast food establishment here and make $15/hour. In my state, quite a few CDL holders either gave up or lost them due to recreational marijuana usage. One neighbor of mine is looking to hire another plumber with the expectation he will have to train the newbie some and he’s planning to pay $60k+ to start. In my company you can answer phones and help customers for $60k to start, salary, with an evening shift from 12-9 once every 10 weeks, and one Saturday from 8-3 about the same interval. There are plenty of jobs that pay decent to start if anyone is willing to work, but getting applicants is a problem. According to my HR dept, 50% don’t respond to calls for an interview, if the ones who get offers, 25% fail the drug test. $80-100k isn’t hard to get around me if you have some sort of degree, can speak clearly, and can pass a drug test. If it’s an engineering degree, you can just about walk into anywhere looking for one and get a job.
With regard to student loans, if you have one you probably shouldn’t be paying for a car but that’s my opinion. Debt sucks, but sometimes it’s necessary. Sometimes it’s brought on by carelessness and poor choices. I shouldn’t be shouldered with responsibility to pay for poor choices besides my own.
FromMyColdDeadHand
10-12-21, 06:39
You definitely cannot underestimate the issues with marijuana especially in lower paying jobs that have screening in them. I’m not saying being a bus driver was ever a dream job, but I’ve heard that the marijuana thing is was killing hiring there. I also know that in a lot of the custodial jobs they can’t keep people in large institutions that drug test. They even tell people that they’re going to get drug tested once 30 days after they start. And they still fail the test.
Companies are looking to hire. They’re not putting that off. I would say that a lot of them aren’t looking to invest very much in new capacity. They know this is a wave that will go away eventually one way or the other.
~SNIP~
On the excess deaths, that page for the US seems low to me, as in it is lower than the reported US COVID deaths. It is also a fraction of a percent of population, so how that can that lead to millions of infilled jobs.
The excess deaths should be substantially lower than the Covid deaths. Many of the people who passed from Covid were at life's end in any case.
Perhaps I mis-understood that statement, because you are correct that the excess deaths do not indicate that so many jobs are unfilled due to potential workers dying from Covid.
Andy
FromMyColdDeadHand
10-12-21, 08:24
The excess deaths should be substantially lower than the Covid deaths. Many of the people who passed from Covid were at life's end in any case.
Perhaps I mis-understood that statement, because you are correct that the excess deaths do not indicate that so many jobs are unfilled due to potential workers dying from Covid.
Andy
Agree on the excess deaths- but early on excess deaths exceeded official COVID Deaths- but I guess it depends how you compute the baseline death rate to compare current deaths too.
Maybe I mis-mis-understood on the excess deaths-job relationship… ;)
There's a lot of help wanted here. Mostly retail, manual labor and/or seasonal. Lowe's, Tree service, lawn service, 7/11, road crew flagger, stuff like that. Best I've seen was $15/hr. Most are somewhere above $10.
I work from home so I'm not out often during the week. There's no rush hour drive or stepping out for coffee. So when I do step out in the middle of the day I'm always surprised at the amount of traffic on the road. It doesn't seem like there's a worker shortage.
Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk
Averageman
10-12-21, 09:22
The excess deaths should be substantially lower than the Covid deaths. Many of the people who passed from Covid were at life's end in any case.
Perhaps I mis-understood that statement, because you are correct that the excess deaths do not indicate that so many jobs are unfilled due to potential workers dying from Covid.
Andy
I'm pretty sure there is a number out their that lists Deaths vs Death's by Covid. I'm not sure how accurate you will find that number because Covid Deaths generate more money and attention for the institution. Add that to the Fed's kind of nudging the numbers on Covid upward to meet their needs.
Anyway, as I watch this, all I see is a pack of lies and as of now, I dont believe anyone.
Many of the people who passed from Covid were at life's end in any case.
You know what kids learn from Old People?
How to Love and How to Let Go.
I'm pretty sure there is a number out their that lists Deaths vs Death's by Covid. I'm not sure how accurate you will find that number because Covid Deaths generate more money and attention for the institution. Add that to the Fed's kind of nudging the numbers on Covid upward to meet their needs.
Anyway, as I watch this, all I see is a pack of lies and as of now, I dont believe anyone.
Many of the people who passed from Covid were at life's end in any case.
You know what kids learn from Old People?
How to Love and How to Let Go.
I wouldn't necessarily say "pack of lies" but the accuracy of Covid death reporting is certainly suspect.
If I sounded callous or disrespectful, I apologize. If Covid caused someone to pass a single day earlier than would have happened normally, that is a day stolen fron their loved ones. My comment was strictly referring to excess deaths vs reported Covid deaths.
Andy
You definitely cannot underestimate the issues with marijuana especially in lower paying jobs that have screening in them. I’m not saying being a bus driver was ever a dream job, but I’ve heard that the marijuana thing is was killing hiring there. I also know that in a lot of the custodial jobs they can’t keep people in large institutions that drug test. They even tell people that they’re going to get drug tested once 30 days after they start. And they still fail the test.
Companies are looking to hire. They’re not putting that off. I would say that a lot of them aren’t looking to invest very much in new capacity. They know this is a wave that will go away eventually one way or the other.
It's an epidemic here. There are more pot shops than liquor stores, and probably by a factor of ten. It's more often than not that you'll see pot shops next door to and across the street from each other. Like I don't know, people are so high they walk out of one, see the other one across the street and be like, Hey a pot store!
You'll see people taking bong rips in traffic, smell it all over the place, etc. I definitely feel bad for any employer who's required to drug test. They're going to start having to recruit old people out of retirement homes for those jobs because it seems like everyone else is stoned 24/7 these days.
I definitely feel bad for any employer who's required to drug test. They're going to start having to recruit old people out of retirement homes for those jobs because it seems like everyone else is stoned 24/7 these days.
Can tell you do not know much about weed or potheads.
Just cause that guy is old does not mean he is not toking up...
Former father in law was a pothead of the highest order and you would never know it unless you spent some time with him and watched him. Guy also used to be a fireman and yes they did random drug testing. He was well prepared to pass any sort of test they threw his way with little effort. He not only never got caught, He was there long enough to retire from the job with all of his benefits...
That guys morning routine was to roll 7 or 8 joints for the day while having his morning coffee. Thant many joints for THAT one day... He did that every day...
For the most part, The only way I could ever tell if he was high or not was if he was being an ass. That usually meant he was somewhat sober. Since he was high most of the time - He was usually tolerable.
Guy kept a bottle of febreeze in his truck at all times. Would use the stuff like a damn body spray after getting out (having been smoking out while driving along to wherever). Apparently it worked for him as he never got called out for smelling like dope.
Can tell you do not know much about weed or potheads.
Just cause that guy is old does not mean he is not toking up...
Former father in law was a pothead of the highest order and you would never know it unless you spent some time with him and watched him. Guy also used to be a fireman and yes they did random drug testing. He was well prepared to pass any sort of test they threw his way with little effort. He not only never got caught, He was there long enough to retire from the job with all of his benefits...
That guys morning routine was to roll 7 or 8 joints for the day while having his morning coffee. Thant many joints for THAT one day... He did that every day...
For the most part, The only way I could ever tell if he was high or not was if he was being an ass. That usually meant he was somewhat sober. Since he was high most of the time - He was usually tolerable.
Guy kept a bottle of febreeze in his truck at all times. Would use the stuff like a damn body spray after getting out (having been smoking out while driving along to wherever). Apparently it worked for him as he never got called out for smelling like dope.
It's called tolerance. When you smoke that much that often you cease getting high. He was smoking just to be normal. At least as normal as a drug addict can be. Unfortunately I know more about pot than I would like, both in terms of personal experience and watching people around me crash and burn. Contrary to popular belief, weed wreaks havoc on both mind and body. Like any drug, it steals your soul.
It's called tolerance. When you smoke that much that often you cease getting high. He was smoking just to be normal. At least as normal as a drug addict can be. Unfortunately I know more about pot than I would like, both in terms of personal experience and watching people around me crash and burn. Contrary to popular belief, weed wreaks havoc on both mind and body. Like any drug, it steals your soul.
so so true
yet the it does nothing idiots hate to tell you it is the same science as if you are not vaccinated you are dangerous ! yeah same idiot science as born white born racist !
It's called tolerance. When you smoke that much that often you cease getting high. He was smoking just to be normal. At least as normal as a drug addict can be. Unfortunately I know more about pot than I would like, both in terms of personal experience and watching people around me crash and burn. Contrary to popular belief, weed wreaks havoc on both mind and body. Like any drug, it steals your soul.
You nailed that one.
When you are that far down the rabbit hole people look at you funny and think something is 'off' if you are NOT high...
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.5 Copyright © 2024 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.