View Full Version : Poll: Is this the beginning of the bear market?
The S&P double topped. Then triple topped. Then quadruple topped. The DOW is forming a head and shoulders. Resistance to higher highs is fierce, and support is a freefall down below the 200 day. Insiders (those required to report their activity to the SEC) are dumping stocks, and retail investors are gobbling them up. We just got the Hindenburg Omen. CEOs dumping their stocks and giving their two weeks notice in record numbers. Most of the stocks below 200 day, with indices carried by a handful of stocks so overvalued they couldn't meet expectations even if they became global monopolies in the sectors. Dollar and bonds breaking out bullish while gold fizzles. Even the mighty BTC seems troubled.
But what does M4C think?
With government "forever" bailouts, we can no longer predict markets.
FromMyColdDeadHand
12-16-21, 19:52
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dwhitehorne
12-16-21, 20:31
With government "forever" bailouts, we can no longer predict markets.
This ^^ With Quantitative Easing I don't see how anyone knows what could happen. David
eightmillimeter
12-16-21, 20:45
This ^^ With Quantitative Easing I don't see how anyone knows what could happen. David
We know exactly what could/will happen. QE just makes the triggers more complicated.
We NEED a bear market combined with an end to all of the bailouts. These Fortune 500 welfare queens have quit trying to manage risk or mitigate potential losses. They expect to reap the gains, even on long shot gambles, and have the taxpayers pick up the tab if they roll craps.
I'm not sure how much the fed has to do with it. Most of the QE money just sits in the banks' excess reserves accounts. I think at this point it's just retail investors dumping money into stocks like we haven't seen since the 1920s. The question is, are we at the beginning or the end? Was 2021 tantamount to 1920, and 2022 is tantamount to 1929? Or is the bull run just getting started?
Valuations to earnings are insane. Margin debt is off the charts. It's hard to imagine anything happening at this point besides either a meltup or a meltdown, which is just saying a crash, either of an inflationary or deflationary nature. I think to avoid either, we would need an immediate frenzy of economic activity, but getting that would necessitate removing the legislative obstacles that stifled it in the first place (i.e. lowering taxes and deregulating private enterprise). And that's to say nothing of the spiritual and intellectual deficiencies that plague our workforce right now. It's pretty hard to run a factory when your worker pool has to pop xanny and vape an eighth's worth of hash to leave the safety of mom's basement. That took decades to instill in people, and since it was done to them in their formative years, it could take a lifetime to cure them of it, if that's even possible.
We NEED a bear market combined with an end to all of the bailouts. These Fortune 500 welfare queens have quit trying to manage risk or mitigate potential losses. They expect to reap the gains, even on long shot gambles, and have the taxpayers pick up the tab if they roll craps.
You probably don't want to live through such a course correction. It would be the rebuilding of our country, meaning most of us would have factory jobs, incomes and lifestyles like our grandparents but without any of the good shit that made their lives better.
We NEED a bear market combined with an end to all of the bailouts. These Fortune 500 welfare queens have quit trying to manage risk or mitigate potential losses. They expect to reap the gains, even on long shot gambles, and have the taxpayers pick up the tab if they roll craps.
You probably don't want to live through such a course correction. It would be the rebuilding of our country, meaning most of us would have factory jobs, incomes and lifestyles like our grandparents but without any of the good shit that made their lives better.
The beginning of the bear market was Nov. 8th 2020. Plan accordingly.
Dr Burry and a few other smart chaps say we're on a bubble, and Crypto will end badly. Then others say Powell is a dove and will continue to (to some degree) prop up the equities with some form of continuing Q.E.
I don't know. My stock picks are small, high-risk companies that will take off in even a bearish market when they secure revenue in the future.
You probably don't want to live through such a course correction. It would be the rebuilding of our country, meaning most of us would have factory jobs, incomes and lifestyles like our grandparents but without any of the good shit that made their lives better.
As someone who lost a high six figures (almost 7) in the 08 crash, I learned a hard lesson in .gov manipulation.
I have a much better financial guy now. He charges me a very large fee on my gains (and only on gains), and he earns it. Short of a dystopian, Mad Max style collapse I'm pretty sure I'll be OK.
Adrenaline_6
12-17-21, 12:16
It's definitely on life support. Nobody can predict exactly when, but I am pretty sure it's coming soon. The mega rich "in the know" don't dump stocks and hoard cash like that on a whim. They know something and they are preparing accordingly.
Averageman
12-17-21, 13:54
I kind of pay attention to what people say, so when the run up for the election happened I listened to Biden's fairy tales of economic prosperity.
When he decided to cut our oil production to achieve these fairy tales,
I pulled every nickel I had out of the market. Paid off the house and truck and retired
It's definitely on life support. Nobody can predict exactly when, but I am pretty sure it's coming soon. The mega rich "in the know" don't dump stocks and hoard cash like that on a whim. They know something and they are preparing accordingly.
Well according to MSNBC they're all hoarding cash so they can dump it right back into the market at higher highs. I guess selling low and buying high is the new normal for billionaires??? Apparently we're living in opposite world now so who knows.
Well according to MSNBC they're all hoarding cash so they can dump it right back into the market at higher highs. I guess selling low and buying high is the new normal for billionaires??? Apparently we're living in opposite world now so who knows.
Are you sure that's what they reported? Even people that believe the Corona numbers are smart enough to tell that can't be true.
Buy bio
Charting doesn't work in manipulated markets
Are you sure that's what they reported? Even people that believe the Corona numbers are smart enough to tell that can't be true.
Oh yea, and they're not the only ones talking about it, either. That's the mainstream narrative right now is that stocks have to go up because of all the money on the sidelines. They just conveniently leave out the part where the dollar is breaking out bullish while indices flash warning signs.
There's this mainstream belief right now that retail investors are going to absorb all the selling from the sophisticated investors and push the indices into new ATHs, at which point the sophisticated investors will go "oh shit!" and dump all their billions into the markets. And somehow everyone lives happily ever after with values that are quadruple possible earnings.
What's actually going on is the smart money is selling all they can, while the companies buy back their own stock, which, along with the gullible bag holders, keeps the price up so they can continue to sell their personal shares at or near ATHs. It's crazy.
Not saying it's impossible to get a meltup at this point, but it certainly takes a special kind of arrogance to think you're smarter than all the Warren Buffetts out there combined. If you ask me, this is Gamestop act two, final scene.
Adrenaline_6
12-20-21, 09:19
Well according to MSNBC they're all hoarding cash so they can dump it right back into the market at higher highs. I guess selling low and buying high is the new normal for billionaires??? Apparently we're living in opposite world now so who knows.
That's funny. Yea...that's why they are billionaires...because they are "money and investment stupid". Once it crashes and joe public gets their asses handed to them, they will buy it back at bargain basement prices. Rinse...repeat.
That's funny. Yea...that's why they are billionaires...because they are "money and investment stupid". Once it crashes and joe public gets their asses handed to them, they will buy it back at bargain basement prices. Rinse...repeat.
Shhhh! Dat's s'posed to be a secret. Not like it's "ever worked" at least 7 times since 1929.
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