View Full Version : Lessons learned from Ukraine: NATO
Debating using one of the existing threads, but decided this could merit its own discussion. We've probably all heard about the pending NATO summit on the situation in Ukraine. If not, well, there will be one on March 24 in Brussels. The most interesting bit of pre-gaming we've seen is Poland's bid to form a NATO peacekeeping mission and have it sent to the country.
This has been reported from several sources:
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-18/poland-to-propose-ukraine-peacekeeping-mission-at-nato-summit-says-pm
https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/03/18/poland-to-call-for-peacekeeping-mission-in-ukraine-at-nato-summit/
In the last couple of days it appears they're getting a solid voting block behind them.
https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51950278690_ca6bdb68b5_b.jpg
Outside of the Eastern European/former Soviet Bloc countries, it looks like Denmark and potentially France will back the Pole's play.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/denmark-to-join-possible-peacekeeping-mission-in-ukraine/
What will be interesting will be if the Poles and Co. are able to push NATO in this direction since they're not the normal "leaders" of the alliance. Even more interesting will be if these members decide to unilaterally send the mission, and what happens if Russia retaliates. For instance, US unilateral action in Iraq and elsewhere didn't preclude other NATO missions or the eventual NATO mission to Iraq.
If this happens, it looks like Poland may be the military leader of central/eastern Europe, and positively warlike compared to the dovish Germans. Man, what a weird world we live in.
Here's a lesson learned: NATO may not be as obsolete as everyone thought it was, and consistent underfunding and neglect has hurt.
The Polish people from what I gather, do not look favorably at the russians or germans. This is purely anecdotal from conversations with my IT guy, who is Polish, and whose parents, grandparents, and in laws suffered under both during ww2 and subsequent soviet domination of Poland. Perhaps this is the reason for Poland taking the lead in this conflict? Also, what is the definition of "peace keeping mission"? Will they engage Russian forces to keep the peace? Leading to more serious consequences and possible US involvement? Interesting times indeed.
FromMyColdDeadHand
03-20-22, 10:19
There is a difference between a peacekeeping and a peacemaking force. I can’t see a NATO flag peacekeeping force in Ukraine, it would have to be UN. It would also probably have to not look NATI, with some African or Asian troops in there too, for a little color. All of the ultimate irony of Putin basically bringing in NATO troops in the Ukraine because of his bellicose nature and his inapt handling of the war.
The Dumb Gun Collector
03-20-22, 11:15
I am no expert but this seems pretty dangerous. On the other hand I like the idea of NATO pushing America rather than vice versa every once in a while to break the idea that NATO is just another puppet organization like the Warsaw Pact. The only way I could see doing it is maybe drawing up a region in the west that doesn't share borders with the attacking parties (including Belarus). To avoid uneceassarity escalation, I propose the following PEADZ.....
67570
I am no expert but this seems pretty dangerous. On the other hand I like the idea of NATO pushing America rather than vice versa every once in a while to break the idea that NATO is just another puppet organization like the Warsaw Pact. The only way I could see doing it is maybe drawing up a region in the west that doesn't share borders with the attacking parties (including Belarus). To avoid uneceassarity escalation, I propose the following PEADZ.....
67570
The idea is good, however there is no stomach to take on Putin and he knows it.
Your eat a dick zone would be better placed at a natural boundary like the river that essentially follows the curve of your present eat a dick zone.
The Dumb Gun Collector
03-20-22, 11:39
Absolutely. My PEADZ was limited by my monkey level knowledge of the apple photo markup.
The idea is good, however there is no stomach to take on Putin and he knows it.
Your eat a dick zone would be better placed at a natural boundary like the river that essentially follows the curve of your present eat a dick zone.
Absolutely. My PEADZ was limited by my monkey level knowledge of the apple photo markup.
HAHAHAHAHAHA!
The Polish people from what I gather, do not look favorably at the russians or germans. This is purely anecdotal from conversations with my IT guy, who is Polish, and whose parents, grandparents, and in laws suffered under both during ww2 and subsequent soviet domination of Poland. Perhaps this is the reason for Poland taking the lead in this conflict? Also, what is the definition of "peace keeping mission"? Will they engage Russian forces to keep the peace? Leading to more serious consequences and possible US involvement? Interesting times indeed.Absolutely right, Poland suffered heavily from both Germany and Russia and is determined to never have that happen again.
They are pushing/taking a lead in this because they have a very strong vested interest given their long border with Ukraine and concerns about stability of their neighbors to the east.
They are one of the strongest players in NATO outside of the UK lately, have invested significantly, and are also helping with their neighbors to the east.
I'm not keen at all with NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine. And I believe firmly that Biden does not want US troop involvement inside Ukraine or in direct opposition of Russia.
There is no magic answer other than someone in Russia taking out Putin. Unlikely, but we can hope.
With over 4 million refugees already from the Ukraine mostly into Poland it's going to reach a point where the humanitarian crisis becomes unmanageable.
I don't know enough about article 5 that if Poland decided to act unilaterally if the rest of NATO could say you are not being attacked so article 5 does not apply. I suspect they would not do that, but we may find out.
Article 5 is as clear as mud. It leaves individual nations lots of wiggle room. IF someone, let's say Hypothetovia (new NATO admittee ;) ) were to jump in on the side of Ukraine unilaterally, that would not "require" NATO to join in their defense. Individual nations may, but the pact does not address that type of scenario specifically.
Article 5 is hardly a mandate, and it's not exactly enforceable upon member nations.
The Euro nations of NATO should roll into Ukraine. It's a Euro problem, let the Euros handle it. This way Putin's USA trap is avoided. The way the Russian Army looks...those punks would be easy to wipe out.
In World War II, Russia regarded manpower as an expendable resource. By the looks of it, at least some of that still holds true.
Russian pilots went against US planes over Vietnam as did Chinese pilots over Korea, did not lead to all out conflict. Suspect if Euro air defense shot down Russian missiles they will likely take some casualties but not likely to lead to Russia attacking the countries fielding the batteries. Putin knows his forces are no match for even the European component of NATO. He is rattling the nuke sabers but going down that road is suicide for him.
Article 5 is as clear as mud. It leaves individual nations lots of wiggle room. IF someone, let's say Hypothetovia (new NATO admittee ;) ) were to jump in on the side of Ukraine unilaterally, that would not "require" NATO to join in their defense. Individual nations may, but the pact does not address that type of scenario specifically.
Article 5 is hardly a mandate, and it's not exactly enforceable upon member nations.That aligns with my limited understanding.
If the non-stop shelling continues to occur I could see Poland entering The fray.
Likewise if attacks on convoys entering / exiting Ukraine through the Polish border continue.
There is a difference between a peacekeeping and a peacemaking force. I can’t see a NATO flag peacekeeping force in Ukraine, it would have to be UN. It would also probably have to not look NATI, with some African or Asian troops in there too, for a little color. All of the ultimate irony of Putin basically bringing in NATO troops in the Ukraine because of his bellicose nature and his inapt handling of the war.
I don’t see UN showing up with rifles. Russia and china have veto power on the Security Council.
FromMyColdDeadHand
03-21-22, 09:16
Poland setting up a ‘security zone’ in western Ukraine would be DELISH….
Russian pilots went against US planes over Vietnam as did Chinese pilots over Korea, did not lead to all out conflict. Suspect if Euro air defense shot down Russian missiles they will likely take some casualties but not likely to lead to Russia attacking the countries fielding the batteries. Putin knows his forces are no match for even the European component of NATO. He is rattling the nuke sabers but going down that road is suicide for him.
Not flying Russian flagged planes they didn't. It's not the same thing. We could put US/NATO pilots in Ukrainian planes as the equivalent but they don't use US made planes, so still not a 1:1 equivalent there.
Putting their pilots in another nations planes, is proxy war pushed to its limits, but still proxy war.
Sending arms for a nation to use, is still proxy war.
Those have been the "rules" of war and proxy war since forever.
Next level is "advisors" which as long as they don't engage in combat, still fall under that rule as proxy. We captured Chinese and Russian "advisors" in Vietnam, and sent them back per the informal and or formal rules. One was a Chinese general and the SEAL who captured him was told to keep his mouth shut, and was pissed to find he was quietly sent back to China.
The Russians called the group we wiped out in Syria mercs, so again, proxy rule held, and prevented direct conflict with Russia. They saved face, we converted a force of Russians who decided to test our commitment into pink mist.
And on it goes.
I do wonder what "advisors" we have in Ukraine, and no doubt there's SAS, KAG, etc gents on the ground advising.
Not flying Russian flagged planes they didn't. It's not the same thing. We could put US/NATO pilots in Ukrainian planes as the equivalent but they don't use US made planes, so still not a 1:1 equivalent there.
In Korea, American pilots were 100% flying against Russian Pilots flying Russian-made Migs. If we slapped a blue and yellow trident and roundel on an F-22, it would be a perfect echo of the Korean air war.
FromMyColdDeadHand
03-21-22, 10:18
In Korea, American pilots were 100% flying against Russian Pilots flying Russian-made Migs. If we slapped a blue and yellow trident and roundel on an F-22, it would be a perfect echo of the Korean air war.
And flew them from Poland with impunity from attack on those bases…
In Korea, American pilots were 100% flying against Russian Pilots flying Russian-made Migs. If we slapped a blue and yellow trident and roundel on an F-22, it would be a perfect echo of the Korean air war.
Identical no, as they'd only appear after the conflict started, vs something we'd sold them already existed in their arsenal. If they had US made planes in their arsenal already, and or, we simply had US pilots flying their Russian made birds, than yes, same thing. That's one route countries get to pretend they are not in direct conflict with each other.
And flew them from Poland with impunity from attack on those bases…
Just like Russian, Chinese, and NK pilots flying out of China during Korea.
Identical no, as they'd only appear after the conflict started, vs something we'd sold them already existed in their arsenal. If they had US made planes in their arsenal already, and or, we simply had US pilots flying their Russian made birds, than yes, same thing. That's one route countries get to pretend they are not in direct conflict with each other.
Migs in Korea only appeared in November of 1950, after US airpower had proven more than a match for the WWII surplus Yaks the NK were flying. "Giving" Ukraine F-22s and having them be piloted unofficially by Americans is an exact parallel. It wouldn't work, of course, because there would be no way to keep any casualties from becoming public knowledge. But the precedent has been set.
An interesting NATO related news event I haven't seen discussed here, Lithuania is formally allowing members of a paramilitary organization to keep automatic weapons in their homes.
Lithuania allows paramilitary organization's members to keep automatic guns at home
VILNIUS – The Lithuanian parliament on Thursday allowed volunteer soldiers and members of the Riflemen's Union, a civilian paramilitary organization, to keep automatic guns at home and to use weapons or special means during patrols with police and border guards.
The Seimas passed amendments to the Law on the Control of Arms and Ammunition to allow l members of the professional military service, volunteer soldiers and members of the Riflemen's Union to acquire and keep at home personal A-category weapons and ammunition.
The legislation passed with 119 votes in favor, none against and five abstentions.
Full article here:
https://www.baltictimes.com/lithuania_allows_paramilitary_organization_s_members_to_keep_automatic_guns_at_home/
More information:
https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1653580/lithuania-allows-members-of-riflemen-s-union-to-keep-automatic-guns-at-home#:~:text=The%20Lithuanian%20parliament%20Seimas%20on,with%20police%20and%20border%20guards.
While not quite a 2nd Amendment-level of reaffirmation of the right of the citizenry to keep and bear arms, it is a step in the right direction, and interesting to see from a NATO member country. Gun Jesus talked about the possibility of similar actions and policies coming back into vogue due to the Ukrainian War, and it looks like he was right. Here's hoping the idea catches on, and spreads.
Original Forgotten Weapons video on the subject:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWdn6_ayqD8
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