Possible NATO Expansion

[Grand58742]

So, Russia was worried about the border with Ukraine if they joined NATO, now they have an 830 mile border with Finland.

And all the Russian Northern Fleet naval and air bases well within striking range of possible future NATO bases at this point...

https://www.foxnews.com/world/sweden-nato-application-june-finland-assessment


Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson aims to bring her country into NATO in June this year as Finland also signals intent to join the Western alliance following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Andersson told Swedish outlet SvD that her party, the Swedish Social Democrats, had made a decision on "the NATO issue," with party informants telling the outlet that the plan is to submit its application at the June 29 NATO meeting in Madrid. Any application would require 75% support in the legislature.

But Finish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said that the country will decide on NATO membership in "weeks rather than months" during Wednesday's press conference, according to Euro News.

"The difference between being a [NATO] partner and being a member is very clear, and will remain so. There's no other way to have security guarantees than under NATO's deterrence and common defense as guaranteed by NATO's article five," Marin said. She called NATO "an important part of Europe's political and security architecture."

This just has trouble written all over it honestly.

[FromMyColdDeadHand]

Why? Six NATO countries already have borders with Russia. The new choice is get nukes or join NATO. Frankly, I'm surprised the Finns would allow NATO to come and kill 'their' Russians, but if they want to share, Kippis!

[SomeOtherGuy]

Russia has been outrageously threatening towards Finland and Sweden, possibly the least imperialistic countries in the world today. Sweden's military is quite solid and Finland's is nothing to sneeze at; they would make a bigger addition to NATO than many of its current members.

Ukraine isn't going well for Russia. Most talking heads are far to one extreme or another, but even if you discount a lot of the "ra ra ra" western cheerleading, Russia is not making progress at the rate we would expect to. Looks like they just lost the flagship of their Black Sea fleet also, in what is claimed to be, and most likely was, a strike by Ukrainian long-range antiship missiles.

I think Putin expected to have Ukraine formally surrender weeks ago, and now he's looking at a Vietnam/A-stan type situation, with a chance of actually being ejected by force. And Russia today cannot afford to lose men and equipment at the rate it's going. Expect Russia to keep striking weapon shipments on the Ukraine/Poland border, and at some point they will get a kinetic response from Poland or some other NATO member, and then it's on like Donkey Kong.

I suspect that any attack on Sweden or Finland from this point forward would get a response as if they were already NATO members, just to add to the spiciness level. I think we're in the opening stages of WW3 at this point.

[alx01]

So, Russia was worried about the border with Ukraine if they joined NATO, now they have an 830 mile border with Finland.


It's silly to assume that Russia had any illusions on which side Finland or Sweden would be on in case of a major conflict. Those countries might not have contributed forces in a conflict directly, but they definitely would have provided their bases, airspace, intelligence, and resources to NATO countries. Both Finland and Sweden would not have been neutral in an objective meaning of this word (at least in a conflict against Russia).

I honestly don't think this changes anything fundamentally. Whenever joining NATO will have any positive consequences for Finland or Sweden is also questionable. They might be able to sell their weapons more easily to other NATO members and they also might be forced to contribute forces to some stupid middle-east invasion down the road.

[Alpha-17]

Russia: threatens and invades its neighbors.

Neighbors: Joins mutual defense club

Russia: *Surprised Pikachu face*

Honestly, the best recruiter for NATO has always been, and remains the USSR/Russia. As soon as this whole fiasco started, Russia ramped up their threats to both Sweden and Finland and pushed them right into NATO's arms. I'm pleasantly surprised by this, as I expected we'd see a repeat of the Phoney War period, where country after country was targeted by Russia, and yet the remaining neutrals continued to cling to the belief that "well, they attacked our neighbors, but we're probably safe!"


I think we're in the opening stages of WW3 at this point.

Unfortunately, I don't think you're wrong.

[Grand58742]

Why? Six NATO countries already have borders with Russia. The new choice is get nukes or join NATO. Frankly, I'm surprised the Finns would allow NATO to come and kill 'their' Russians, but if they want to share, Kippis!

If you count that narrow strip with Norway, then yes, there are four with borders on the main Russian land area (Kaliningrad being an exception with Poland).

The point being is you had some smaller borders and NATO was careful not to put any large scale offensive forces into the Baltics (Or Poland for that matter). Or even the missile shield in Eastern Europe (thanks Obama).

But with the addition of Finland, it really opens up an area that can directly threaten the strategic bases in the Kola Peninsula and flanking St Petersburg from both sides.

The point being is that Finland and Sweden were fairly content to sit on the sidelines for a long time until now. But Putin has pushed them into the "eff around and find out" camp with the rest of Europe.

[utahjeepr]

The Finns and the Swedes should just line people up along that entire 830 mile line and have 'em all moon Russia. ;)

[Wake27]

I don't think this is indicative of WWIII. There's no way Russia didn't know this would happen. Maybe, Putin expected it but also expected to roll over UKR and thought he could blitz a bunch of countries, but he had to know NATO expansion was going to happen and now may be trying to adjust his decision making after current losses in his current efforts.

[FromMyColdDeadHand]

I think he thought that he’d be able to roll over Ukraine and Moldovia have Hungary go wobbly and then threaten the Baltic states and get them to take a more pro-Russian stance. All while staring Finland down to fall in line or else actually invade on some BS pretext. But Zelinsky pulled a Churchill…

[Jackal556]

Why? Six NATO countries already have borders with Russia. The new choice is get nukes or join NATO. Frankly, I'm surprised the Finns would allow NATO to come and kill 'their' Russians, but if they want to share, Kippis!

Maybe they are trying to set a world record in their biathlon event and want other countries to see how it really is done.

[FromMyColdDeadHand]

Maybe they are trying to set a world record in their biathlon event and want other countries to see how it really is done.
at
I was somewhere with nothing to do in a hotel and started watching some international biathlon competition- engrossing. And the fact that one guy was like a minute ahead was even more interesting.