View Full Version : Climate Change Realities
Climate scientists on realty of climate change models we don't hear as it's not the narrative pushed. Balanced and objective discussion here, and the truth, per usual, falls between hyperbole and panic and denial:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULpGDnuz308
hotbiggun42
11-23-22, 18:12
Recently watched joe rogan pee his pants when a geologist explained to him that 2 degrees change in tempreture is nothing.it was based on deep drilling core samples from iceland, i think. He also explained that TEMPRETURE CHANGES VERY QUICKLY AND NOT OVER LONG PERIODS OF TIME. It was one of the better Rogan shows ive seen.
His name is Randall Carlson.
Mathematical forecast modeling isn’t magic. In fact, when used to attempt to predict the future, it’s more of a magic trick...
I’ve done a lot of work with the National weather service during my undergrad days where I helped with modeling the 36 and 72 hour short-term stuff. The amount of data we took in to just get to the medium resolution models was staggering. From satellite data all the way down to good ole fashioned ground-based observers and private citizens with personal weather stations who uploaded their local data to NWS servers.
Even with this level of actual live activity up to and including a beautiful hires photo from space of the weather system coming together we still only managed 80 to 85 percent accuracy for the 36 hour and 70 to 75 percent accuracy on the 72.
Toss in the fact that no real long range historical data exist for anything close to a climate study of the size and scope these guys are debating, and I just don’t see how they are claiming the accuracy at the future time frames they are discussing.
Just look at the mess that’s hurricane prediction. Even with real-time data being sent back via the hurricane hunters we still need literally thousands of ensembles being ran by supercomputers to get anywhere even close to basic predictions such as landfall times and rainfall amounts...
GCC is nothing if not a giant Ponzi scam, with the goals being both money and power. Anyone wringing their hands over it is either an idiot or a grifter.
GCC is nothing if not a giant Ponzi scam, with the goals being both money and power. Anyone wringing their hands over it is either an idiot or a grifter.
This^^^sums it up nicely.
Climate change is so transparent it's laughable. It's the classic formula of scare idiots into supporting bad policy... and to the point above give evil more power.
The sad thing is that there's no shortage of pea brains, and this crap works.
Search on climategate, tells you all you need to know about this PT Barnum scam.
Most people don’t realize this nonsense was debunked long ago.
The Dumb Gun Collector
11-24-22, 09:59
I am not saying manmade climate change isn't real (seems plausible, and most people in the field seem to accept it). But I do know, for a fact, that the industry pushing it has more in common with 80's TV evangelists and Iranian Theocrats than objective science.
My favorite part of that interview is when he is asked why they should ignore all the other models in favor of his and he says "I don't have a model...this is the actual data."
Global climate change is real' the earth's record proves it. Manmade global warming is suspect and the data is riddles with flaws and inaccuracies, made worse by politicization.
The earth's gonna do what the earth's gonna do.
Mathematical forecast modeling isn’t magic. In fact, when used to attempt to predict the future, it’s more of a magic trick...
I’ve done a lot of work with the National weather service during my undergrad days where I helped with modeling the 36 and 72 hour short-term stuff. The amount of data we took in to just get to the medium resolution models was staggering. From satellite data all the way down to good ole fashioned ground-based observers and private citizens with personal weather stations who uploaded their local data to NWS servers.
Even with this level of actual live activity up to and including a beautiful hires photo from space of the weather system coming together we still only managed 80 to 85 percent accuracy for the 36 hour and 70 to 75 percent accuracy on the 72.
Toss in the fact that no real long range historical data exist for anything close to a climate study of the size and scope these guys are debating, and I just don’t see how they are claiming the accuracy at the future time frames they are discussing.
Just look at the mess that’s hurricane prediction. Even with real-time data being sent back via the hurricane hunters we still need literally thousands of ensembles being ran by supercomputers to get anywhere even close to basic predictions such as landfall times and rainfall amounts...
Many of the comments in this thread would suggest they didn't watch the vid, already convinced they know what's happening, door closed to nuance (a seemingly lost idea...) and learning. Anyway, the number of variables they have to plug into those models, run on super computers, to get rough estimates on even a current storm only a few days out, is massive beyond comprehension. Obviously the models are getting better, but they are still just slightly above a WAG beyond even short periods of time as you point out. We need to get passed the BS agendas and back to objective science per that vid and make decisions and policy based on that, but that too now a topic of the culture wars that has creeped into the science domain to the point people, understandably, don't trust it, and that's the true danger we all face.
But, there's been real push back in the scientific community and related to this suppression of objective debate on these all important topics that impact us all, so maybe there's hope yet.
Climatology and climatologist are a mixed bag of education and skills, not as focused as say someone with a degree in meteorology, atmospheric sciences or physics.
In my very amateur opinion a basic undergraduate meteorologist is better trained to research “climate change” than most of the political charlatans that pollute the academic field of climatology.
If y’all remember the scandals that engulfed the IPCC some years back? the director at the time was a guy named Rajendra Kumar Pachauri. What was his credentials to head up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?
None...
He was an industrial engineer who built diesel locomotives for a living...
No, I watched it and it debunks ALL of the climate models used to create the debunked hockey stick that was the subject of my post and the academic fraud comitted by Michael Mann. In fact he is mentioned in the video as claiming the satellite data sets have been "debunked." Only further proof he and his fellow alarmists are frauds.
Bottom line, it is normal for temperatures to fluctuate and a graudual warming can and likely will be followed by an oppositite cooling trend.
"These models, 100% of them by the way, are warming the planet more than it actually is."
Global climate change is real' the earth's record proves it. Manmade global warming is suspect and the data is riddles with flaws and inaccuracies, made worse by politicization.
The earth's gonna do what the earth's gonna do.
Yeah the carboniferous period would of been a terrifying thing to experience! Scorpions the size of skateboards and dragonflies the size of radio controlled planes...
Obviously the models are getting better, but they are still just slightly above a WAG beyond even short periods of time as you point out.
Mathematicians will be the first to tell you that their models are projections based on assumptions, not predictions that are most likely going to happen. In math modeling is based on what’s called structures which are just sets of operations used to define or in this case measure a function. In weather forecasting some of the more complex sets are used to project the upper atmospheric analysis where you are trying to forecast anticipated changes to such things as the formation and evolution of fronts, steering currents and what the jet stream is and isn’t doing.
All of these have to be updated every 12 hours while surface analysis is updated every 3 hours due to the rapidly changing nature of the most complicated system on earth, the weather...
Averageman
11-24-22, 12:49
We as a species have become remarkablly egotistical haven't we?
Now we think we can controll the weather.
Global climate change is real' the earth's record proves it. Manmade global warming is suspect and the data is riddles with flaws and inaccuracies, made worse by politicization.
The earth's gonna do what the earth's gonna do.
Manmade warming or GACC if you will, invariably ignores one of the biggest statistical factors with which humans alter the climate. Those are the major urban areas of the world. If you want to “do your part”, then tear down your skyscrapers, rip up your concrete jungles and return to the earth itself. But they’re not gonna do that now are they?
So IDGAF what some climate “scientist” tells me I have to sacrifice of mine in order to “save the planet”, when they’re never going to sacrifice their own sacred cows.
We as a species have become remarkablly egotistical haven't we?
Now we think we can controll the weather.
Well, a couple of chemists from the General Electric Research Laboratory did make it snow back in the late 1940’s...
Here’s an insane idea!
Dimming the Sun to Cool the Planet Is a Desperate Idea, Yet We’re Inching Toward It
The scientists who study solar geoengineering don’t want anyone to try it. But climate inaction is making it more likely.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-a-warming-planet/dimming-the-sun-to-cool-the-planet-is-a-desperate-idea-yet-were-inching-toward-it
As long as the elites continue to buy beach front property, we are safe.
No, I watched it and it debunks ALL of the climate models used to create the debunked hockey stick that was the subject of my post and the academic fraud comitted by Michael Mann. In fact he is mentioned in the video as claiming the satellite data sets have been "debunked." Only further proof he and his fellow alarmists are frauds.
Bottom line, it is normal for temperatures to fluctuate and a graudual warming can and likely will be followed by an oppositite cooling trend.
"These models, 100% of them by the way, are warming the planet more than it actually is."
And I took more nuance from that vid than you did apparently, but end of the day, he's pragmatic about and that's what is needed. Not hysteria the world is ending in 10 years if we don't give up our cars and meat, or denial the planet is warming, as he states it is. Normal trend or not, it's happening, just happening at a slower rate than the the models predict. "The planet is going to do what the planet is going to do" and that's how to approach it really. Many of the most far left types who started out thinking wind, solar, and hugs was the way, have realized that's impossible, and nuclear is the only real answer that makes sense:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-yALPEpV4w
Mathematicians will be the first to tell you that their models are projections based on assumptions, not predictions that are most likely going to happen. In math modeling is based on what’s called structures which are just sets of operations used to define or in this case measure a function. In weather forecasting some of the more complex sets are used to project the upper atmospheric analysis where you are trying to forecast anticipated changes to such things as the formation and evolution of fronts, steering currents and what the jet stream is and isn’t doing.
All of these have to be updated every 12 hours while surface analysis is updated every 3 hours due to the rapidly changing nature of the most complicated system on earth, the weather...
However, the value of models is to make predictions, and the models that exist seem very limited in the accuracy of their predictive power, no doubt due to the almost impossible number of factors that have to be account for to get accurate predictions. The models continue to improve I'd expect, but predicting with any accuracy past a few days the weather patterns of an entire planet is a monumental project.
We as a species have become remarkablly egotistical haven't we?
Now we think we can controll the weather.
Not become, part of the human condition since God or nature produced humans since day one. We have viewed ourselves the center of everything from day one, and those who pointed out that was not the case, were burned at the stake or what have you. If anything, we are less egotistical now then we were not long ago as a species. Too little too late to prevent snuffing ourselves out? I give it a 50/50 currently.
You don't make money or policy (and money through policy) by being resonable Will. Hysteria is required to foment the climate religion and actions we are seeing today.
You don't make money or policy (and money through policy) by being resonable Will. Hysteria is required to foment the climate religion and actions we are seeing today.
We don't have to look far to see that's the norm for most things when humans are involved sadly. It's only that the US has the checks and balances it does, as slow as it is, that we are having this discussion at all. They are doing their best to squash all debate on the topic, but it's not working and as MLK said " "no lie can live forever."
Many of the most far left types who started out thinking wind, solar, and hugs was the way, have realized that's impossible, and nuclear is the only real answer that makes sense:
You underestimate your foe by assigning your values to their actions.
There are some decent people who get caught up in the hype, but the people running it don’t have values like you. They don’t want a practical solution, they want to kill off most of the human population. Malthusians are a genocidal earth cult and they are devout believers.
A good vid there:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBdmppcfixM
The Dumb Gun Collector
11-26-22, 10:14
Damn! I was just watching that!
fedupflyer
11-27-22, 01:25
GCC is nothing if not a giant Ponzi scam, with the goals being both money and power. Anyone wringing their hands over it is either an idiot or a grifter.
I prefer calling it a wealth redistribution scheme masquerading as environmentalism.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.5 Copyright © 2024 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.