View Full Version : Kyrsten Sinema goes independent, scrambles Senate
https://www.axios.com/2022/12/09/kyrsten-sinema-democratic-party-independent-senate
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona said in remarks published at 6 a.m. ET Friday that she's leaving the Democratic Party and registering as an independent.
Why it matters: It's a political earthquake that will shake up the Senate — just three days after Democrats thought they had secured a 51-49 majority.
Our thought bubble, via Axios' Josh Kraushaar: Sinema views activists in the Arizona Democratic Party as extreme as the state Republican Party.
She's up in 2024, and risked a primary from Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) on the left.
Damn!!!
Depends on who she decides to caucus with. For instance Bernie is an Independent but caucuses with the Democraps so he counts as one of them numbers-wise.
Will she vote differently? Eh, probably not. She is just trying to placate the voters who are not happy with the state of the country.
Depends on who she decides to caucus with. For instance Bernie is an Independent but caucuses with the Democraps so he counts as one of them numbers-wise.
I imagine she'll caucus with the democrats. But they will have to work to have her vote for their legislation; it ain't gonna be a gimme.
Will she vote differently? Eh, probably not. She is just trying to placate the voters who are not happy with the state of the country.
I think she will (vote differently). She, Manchin, a couple of others had a huge independent streak that rubbed the democrat leadership the wrong way.
This is a very big deal. 51-49 was an impenetrable wall. 50-50 (or 50-49-1) really changes the dynamic.
Doubt she'll side with Dems who have treated her like complete shit. I used to hate this broad, but she's actually at least moderate on her views now that she's in office. I trust here more that Penis head Mark Kelly by a HUGE margin.
Will she vote differently? Eh, probably not. She is just trying to placate the voters who are not happy with the state of the country.
She will. Her and Manchin have been the most powerful players in the senate for the last two years this’ll make her even more significant and she knows it.
Diamondback
12-09-22, 08:41
This is no more than Scorpion saying "Frog, please give me a lift across the river." Unless she crosses over to make the caucuses 50-50, it's a distinction without a difference, "full of sound and fury signifying nothing."
I'm trying to figure out the math on this. Granted, the hard left were gonna challenge her in the primary, no matter how foolish that would have been. So now she is preemptively setting up a 3 party race for 2024. Gallego will almost certainly try to land the D slot on the ballot and I'm betting he gets it. The R slot, who knows? Either way her incumbent advantage gets watered down fighting two party machines.
There has to be some "inside baseball" stuff going on here. That or she is planning her exit from the Senate and positioning for her next step, whatever that may be. I don't see her ever going R, any talking heads saying that may be a "future possibility" or "next step" are full of it.
Sinema has sailed an odd course. I remember her from the 2000's. She was a lefty activist and all over radio and TV in AZ. She was the go to interview for any radical left wing cause. Her positions then were right in line with AOChe. She was Squad before Squad was cool. Her transition to "flamboyant moderate" has been strange to watch. I gotta admit though, I kinda like her. Even "back then" when I disagreed with every word that came out of her mouth.
Diamondback
12-09-22, 08:53
That's the game, Utah, she's posturing because she knows the Left pisses off the Normies and she needs to create distance from them until the storm blows over.
Anything she says to appeal to those Less Left is just so much "Frog, I totes promise I won't sting you if you give me a ride"--I've seen this scam before, I was taught it firsthand BY Leftist Elite strategists as a kid, and in the small-ball environment of that classroom I've run this scam myself. People CAN change, but the probability is she is running the same thing By The Numbers...
This is no more than Scorpion saying "Frog, please give me a lift across the river." Unless she crosses over to make the caucuses 50-50, it's a distinction without a difference, "full of sound and fury signifying nothing."
I disagree. If she had been a go along/get along with the Democrats all along I'd agree, but she (and manchin) has been a thorn in their sides. If she was just going to vote D party line anyway, she wouldn't have switched. She'll hold enormous power because they will really have to earn her vote.
I do think that it will be an uphill battle for the Republicans but if they can use her, Manchin, to block even a third of their legislation, it will be helpful.
Diamondback
12-09-22, 09:09
I disagree. If she had been a go along/get along with the Democrats all along I'd agree, but she (and manchin) has been a thorn in their sides. If she was just going to vote D party line anyway, she wouldn't have switched. She'll hold enormous power because they will really have to earn her vote.
I do think that it will be an uphill battle for the Republicans but if they can use her, Manchin, to block even a third of their legislation, it will be helpful.
Chuck, when I say "cross over" I don't mean hoist the Party banner, I mean in order to break Schumer's real power she has to caucus with the R's the way "indie" Angus King does with the D's. The real power is in the committee chairs, and as long as she caucuses with the left side of the chamber she gives Schumer those chairs outright rather than Chuck & Mitch each having to appoint co-chairs.
Chuck, when I say "cross over" I don't mean hoist the Party banner, I mean in order to break Schumer's real power she has to caucus with the R's the way "indie" Angus King does with the D's. The real power is in the committee chairs, and as long as she caucuses with the left side of the chamber she gives Schumer those chairs outright rather than Chuck & Mitch each having to appoint co-chairs.
I'm tracking.
It appears she's trying to ride the razor's edge: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kyrsten-sinema-leaves-democratic-party-registers-as-independent-cuts-fragile-margin-in-us-senate/ar-AA155dHr
We'll see how well it works for her, and/or the democrats.
I disagree. If she had been a go along/get along with the Democrats all along I'd agree, but she (and manchin) has been a thorn in their sides. If she was just going to vote D party line anyway, she wouldn't have switched. She'll hold enormous power because they will really have to earn her vote.
I do think that it will be an uphill battle for the Republicans but if they can use her, Manchin, to block even a third of their legislation, it will be helpful.
I can kind of agree with all of that, but she had that already. Slapping an "I" next to her name doesn't change the ground game but it does make it much harder for her to win in 2024. She is essentially ceding the primary to Gallego. It does give her time to prepare for a 3 way race, but trying to pull a Lieberman is gonna be tough. I'm trying to figure out what she thinks she is gonna get out of this. Even if you hate her you gotta admit she is smart and shrewd. I'm not seeing the upside for her.
Anytime a politician makes a choice it's all about them. So I'm trying to figure out what's in this for Sinema.
She will. Her and Manchin have been the most powerful players in the senate for the last two years this’ll make her even more significant and she knows it.
Manchin needs to follow suit and break Schumer for what he did to him. That would wipe the smug smile off Schumer's face, even if it was more symbolic than anything.
Anytime a politician makes a choice it's all about them. So I'm trying to figure out what's in this for Sinema.
Could be emotional. Again, her nutbag party has been harsh toward her. Splitting the ticked does seem like a bad idea. But I would be willing to vote for her over most of the pussy republicans that pollute the party now. A real moderate over a fake conservative is a no brainer for me.
FromMyColdDeadHand
12-09-22, 10:29
This is no more than Scorpion saying "Frog, please give me a lift across the river." Unless she crosses over to make the caucuses 50-50, it's a distinction without a difference, "full of sound and fury signifying nothing."
I agree. I really don’t know that this has any effect on anything. I don’t see it changing any kind of power sharing agreement or anything like that. I don’t think it’s a good thing for the Democrats, but I really don’t think it makes any kind of real difference.
titsonritz
12-09-22, 14:14
Come on Manchin, your turn.
I hope she votes with the Republicans on every vote.
I hope she votes with the Republicans on every vote.
Dream on. She's still gonna caucus with the Dems. She toes the party line 93% of the time. I don't expect that to change.
Diamondback
12-09-22, 15:56
I hope she votes with the Republicans on every vote.
Won't matter as long as Schumer's dickremoras are the committee chairs to spike anything we like and ram through anything they like. Only thing that changes that is costing them Majority Caucus status, and going from a 51-49 split to a 50-49-1 split still means they hold the majority by one. The only way this changes anything is if she leaves the D Caucus and drags Manchin out the door with her to form their own "indie caucus" making 49-49-2.
Otherwise... well, Mr. Frog, I hope you're either well stocked on antivenins or have cultivated an immunity to scorpion toxin.
BoringGuy45
12-09-22, 16:31
Won't matter as long as Schumer's dickremoras are the committee chairs to spike anything we like and ram through anything they like. Only thing that changes that is costing them Majority Caucus status, and going from a 51-49 split to a 50-49-1 split still means they hold the majority by one. The only way this changes anything is if she leaves the D Caucus and drags Manchin out the door with her to form their own "indie caucus" making 49-49-2.
Otherwise... well, Mr. Frog, I hope you're either well stocked on antivenins or have cultivated an immunity to scorpion toxin.
It's certainly possible with Manchin. He's as conservative as many Republicans on many issues, much more than Sinema, and his seat for 2024 is in more severe danger with as deep red as WV is now. It might already be too late for him as he stance on a lot of energy bills pissed off the coal mining industry. Reversing course and joining the GOP might be the only thing keeping him from getting voted out.
I can kind of agree with all of that, but she had that already. Slapping an "I" next to her name doesn't change the ground game but it does make it much harder for her to win in 2024. She is essentially ceding the primary to Gallego. It does give her time to prepare for a 3 way race, but trying to pull a Lieberman is gonna be tough. I'm trying to figure out what she thinks she is gonna get out of this. Even if you hate her you gotta admit she is smart and shrewd. I'm not seeing the upside for her.
Anytime a politician makes a choice it's all about them. So I'm trying to figure out what's in this for Sinema.
Maybe she sees the faux transition of Tulsi Gabbard and her seeming popularity on the Right (with those of dim wits of course) and thinks she can pull the same thing off? I dunno.
OutofBatt3ry
12-09-22, 19:12
Meh, I'd happy disappoint her in the sack.
FromMyColdDeadHand
12-09-22, 19:28
There are more than a few Dem senators with GOP governors. Say someone dies in office, Wellstone and Carnahan happened in our lifetimes, and has to be replaced.
Averageman
12-10-22, 06:13
She just upped her status now didn't she?
The Democrats should see her as the new "Wild Card", she gets special attention and press.
Works all the way around for her in many ways now doesn't it?
She doing to the Democrats what McCaine did to republicans, or potentially will. She will recieve both acclamations and ire from both the Left and the Right.
Dream on. She's still gonna caucus with the Dems. She toes the party line 93% of the time. I don't expect that to change.
This. If she caucuses with the ComDems then nothing really has changed other than she keeps the low information voters who are sick of the ComDems.
She is just positioning herself to run for president, or at least be chosen to be someone's vice president in 2024.
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