Fall back position?

[warrior9504]

So I am new to the whole preparedness thing. But as a new husband/father and ex-military I feel it is my job to "plan for the worst." I have started the basics, extra food in the house worked into our family meal plan, water storage, extra fuel, and of course guns and ammo :D. I still need some form of supplemental heat and elec.

But here is my current thought dilemma. At what point do we evac? If so where do we go? I would imagine where would likely depend on how bad things got. We live in a fairly suburban neighborhood (houses w/in 30 ft of ours) and close to some big urban areas in PA. I don't think I would leave the house unless things got pretty bad and in the event of total collapse I would try and evac to my parents home in the middle of the state (plenty of land, horses - a country boy will survive) but I would think that almost 2hr trip under normal travel conditions might be pretty hair under total collapse.

Does anyone have a fall back position? How do you decide to execute it? And how would you move out in the chaos (I'm guessing I can't just shoot everyone...at least the non-zombies).

[Rider]

I have the same question and nearly the same background. 2 toddlers, live in southern suburb in an area with some ghettoes a few miles away but its a good neighborhood with solid gun owning neighbors and a nearby river/woodland. It seems like staying put with the kids and my food stash might be wiser then heading out. There are 4 LEO's and at least (the one's I know) 5 other 30 something fairly well armed Dad's within 2 blocks. I guess if we are talking about no more outside food production any more, raise your own animals, hunt and grow crops I would have to try to move the family but if its "just" a month of chaos after an attack forming a neighborhood defense patrol seems smarter. Scary times though.

[williejc]

You might research the events that occurred when people in the Houston area attempted to travel north to escape recent hurricanes. Chaos and disorder were the result. I now believe that after a major disaster, travel to a distant area will be extremely difficult or impossible. Remaining in place with family and friends may be the better option. Examine your town's demographics for some clues to the level of civil unrest that will take place. If you choose to flee, what are the demographics of your escape route and destination? Those folks who don't work or never worked or who fail to abide by society's rules during good times will literally run out of control in disaster's aftermath. This statement also applies to many so-called regular guys whose actions toward others may be selfish or criminal when their true colors are displayed.

[beaker1013]

Warrior9504 has brought up some good questions. I think the situation and the severity dictate when to evacuate, also how much advanced warning comes into play. The sooner you get out of your house and on the road the better your chances are of getting out.

Now, where to go to? From what I have read and common sense, I have picked 3 places with some lesser choices in the immediate areas. I live Aurora Colorado, so my choices are in Southwest ( a good friend has a cabin in that area), West and Northwest mountains. Everything east would end up being prairie and I don't want to make a stand with a yucca bush for cover, if everything has gone down the crapper.

As to how to get there? I know that the major highways would be extremely slow going as rush hour is bad enough here. Now compound heavy traffic with broken down clunkers and crazies running around screaming and waving their arms over their heads and you have total gridlock. Also, the people that haven't prepared will probably be on the roads trying to get what you have. I plan on taking county roads, lesser roads and an occasional piece of field/farmland if need be.

This is all worst case, I would pick some places and drive to them and see what works for you. Just make sure you have a plan, a back-up plan and are gtg with your gear. If everything goes to hell, just getting our families back to our houses in time to evacuate might be asking alot if something were to happen during a normal work week.

Semper Fi,
Dave

[warrior9504]

Warrior9504 has brought up some good questions. I think the situation and the severity dictate when to evacuate, also how much advanced warning comes into play. The sooner you get out of your house and on the road the better your chances are of getting out.

I agree with all of this. I think in my case it is better to stay put since most "emergencies" are over in a matter of a week or two. I should have enough food/water for those days, heating in the really cold months might be a challenge but with a little adaptation we will be OK...not comfortable but I don't think that's the point.


I have picked 3 places with some lesser choices in the immediate areas. I live Aurora Colorado, so my choices are in Southwest ( a good friend has a cabin in that area), West and Northwest mountains.

I only have my parents' place in the middle of the state. It would be nice to have alternatives but one of the problems with where we live is that west is about the only direction to find open land. The good thing about PA is there are a million back country roads that go everywhere so I should be able to meander my way out there.

I was thinking if coming up with a packing list for any potential evacuation. The stress of a catastrophic event big enough for me to evac that far is not the time to think..."did I pack all the stuff I need?" If I can just read off a list, or better yet divide the list to stuff my wife/kids can pack and stuff I pack (faster to multitask) there won't be a whole lot of thinking involved. I should probably rehearse this too (Army training) to make sure everything fits in the bags/vehicles.

Anyone done anything like this already?

[Vic303]

You can prepack some stuff in rubbermaid tubs and store in the garage. Think "camping gear" for example. Then spraypaint a unique color on those tubs (safety orange...) to ID them in a hurry. That way you can tell folks--just load the orange-marked tubs/boxes/ammocans etc into the car. Then use your checklist.

[shadowalker]

There are a few good disaster preparedness books available on Amazon, they are worth checking out.

If you live in a city the likelihood of successfully bugging out is very low. In most situations it is better to shelter in and prepare for what comes with that. My goal is to be gone in less than 15 minutes from the time the decision is made to leave. Portable water containers are important and the rubber maid tubs are great for making things more portable.

It is a very good idea to make a list of things you are going to need ahead of time so you aren't mindlessly wasting time grabbing things you don't need and that don't make any sense in an emergency situation. You can divide the grab list up so that everyone in your family is doing something to assist in getting out.

When you rehearse it don't tell them the particular time it will be but it is probably a good idea to clear the idea of rehearsing with your wife and make sure she doesn't have plans!

Also having a truck with an extended capacity gas tank or extra gas cans would be very beneficial and give you a higher chance of being able to make it out of town before running out of fuel. It also lets you get further away before having to stop and compete for fuel with other people.

[LonghunterCO]

This question has so many variables, many depending upon your personal situation. Without asking a ton of personal questions on the net, I will muddle through.
I am in a simular situation as you in that I have young ones. This has totally changed my preps and the way I look at things. In many ways I am still try to come to grips with my new situation.

You have to have a fall back position, and I would strongly suggest at least a thrid position. When you decide to move back to the fall back position depends greatly on the severity of the situation and in many ways your homes proximity to the problem. If I were single with little of no ties to an area I might ride out more problems than I will in my current position. I think that with kids in the picture it becomes even more important to keep your ear to the ground and be able to react sooner. This may mean more frequent trips to Grandmas. NOT LOOKING FOR A RESPONCE:
-Could your wife make it there on her own?
-Do your wife and parients get along?
-Are there enough resources at your parient's to support everyone there + your family?
-It not what is lacking and do you plan to bring it there with you or do you stockpile it there?
-What major population centers does your evacuation route go near?
-Are there any "problem" areas that could your limit your movement along your evac route? (mountains, lakes, rivers, major population centers, refinery, nuclear power plant...National guard bases) If so plan ways around them, if there are no others routes, pick another fall back location.

[beaker1013]

Longhunter is correct, you need to have atleast 3 fall back positions and his other questions are some good ones to think about. I made sure that my routes were the most desolate.

A checklist/packing list is s great idea. Also, Vic's color coding suggestion is awesome. It would help cut down on the confussion in a stressful situation. I have 3 large duffle bags, 3 packs and 4-7 gal. water jugs stored in the basement. I'd put these in the garage, but someone might relieve me of my gear before I need it. Also, the main natural disasters out here are tornados and snow storms, so the basement is a better alternative staging area for me.

I was laid off in October, so I've been able to finalize our list and gotten everything ready. It was alot easier to be mobile when I was single and as I know everyone who has a family has found out; a wife, kids and a dog add alot of extra equipment. Make sure you have a couple of toys for the kids and dog and a game that the whole family can play to ease the anxiety and boredom after you have fled and settled in.

Rehersals are a great idea. Get everyone in the car (you can add gear loading time later), drive to one of your fall back positions, note the time and gas used and have lunch. Take back roads and try to avoid Longhunters hazard spots and note hazards that pop up or become apparent. Follow Shadowalkers advice about the gas. If you do have to stop to fuel up in your rehersal, note how much you use and have extra stored so you wont have to stop again. It's better to find out when conditions are good than when it's too late.

My 1st post was for a best case evacuation in worst case situation, I plan on riding out just about everything from home unless we are forced to evacuate. I did find a site that has a great list to get started on preparing a packing list. www.concealedcarryoutfitters.com/bugout_kit.htm

Semper Fi,
Dave

[Iraq Ninja]

There is a podcast called "The Survival Podcast" and the show uploaded on 3/11/09 is on prepping the Fall Back shelter. http://www.thesurvivalpodcast.com/

I have only listened to a few episodes, but I got them on my Ipod for listening while traveling.

[LonghunterCO]

Rehersals are a great idea.

Dry runs are the only way to go. Any of you with kids remember the first time, after getting them home from the hospital that you dicided to go out? My son was an oxygen and we had two feet of snow on the ground we were changing/feeding, filling up the diper bag for the first time, getting extra food, clothes, toys, etc. etc. etc. It took us 2 hours to leave. I kid you not.
Anyway, the time to be loading of the car and making a list is now. Not when things are going down hill.

[Mo_Zam_Beek]

I don't know what is like where you are but I will relate a thought or two from where I live - the biggest little town (65k) for about 2 hrs in every direction and the ability to 'be in the woods' in 20 minutes. A city (500k+) is 4+ hours away.

Maps - right now a person can literally drive state to state and merely cross major state and Fed roadways if they have the appropriate maps. The trip will be much longer, there will be very few (if any) other folks along the way (and some of those folks are on those roads b/c they are hiding out from LE), and there won't be any gas stations or 7-11s. However, they always dump out close to a town for gas if need be and otherwise provide for a very low pro route from here to somewhere - but you gotta have the maps, the fuel, resources and mindset to deal with the unexpected.

Cached items - depending on route you might consider cached items along either a central exit route or small caches along multiple exit routes.

In the end I am less interested in 'leaving' and have been running through the concepts of if it was really like that - where is a likely safe harbor 'here' if it isn't my home. In some specific cases I can see a group of like minded persons squatting in a 'pay me no mind' commercial building and doing quite well while staying close enough to keep a watch on the developing situation as well staying close to supplies that could be 'procured' if need be.

To me, Fall back / bug out - is a last ditch resort due to the sheer vulernability.

[Beat Trash]

When to move to a "fall back position"? The short answer is when your position is no longer tenable.

The problem is if the time were to come that you need to evacuate to another location, would it be too late to do so?

I'd suggest trying to locate mulitple "fall back positions", preferably in different directions, should the threat suddenly be between your current location and where you planned on going to.

The idea of having gear pre-loaded in tubs, ect. is an excellent one. Take the tubs and try to load them in your vehicle first. During an emergency would be a bad time to find out they don't fit. I'd go so far as to decide how they can be loaded most effectively, then number them. Draw a diagram showing what goes where. Have it laminated and kept next to the tubs.

If, like posted previously, you want to make the tubs easier to identify by painting orange, ect, ok. The idea is that if you are away from the house, your wife, ect could go to the garage and start loading up. If the time comes to "grab n get", "Bug Out", or "Fall Back", what ever the term, time is vital.

For me, it'd take alot to make me leave. Massive hurricane, Fire, Chemical spill, large scale civil unrest likely to envelope my area, are those types of incidents that come to mind.

[MarshallDodge]

For me, it'd take alot to make me leave. Massive hurricane, Fire, Chemical spill, large scale civil unrest likely to envelope my area, are those types of incidents that come to mind.

My wife and I are of the same mindset. We have worked too hard, for too long, to just walk away.

Our plan is community. Get to know your neighbors and discuss things like disaster preparation so if the time comes you know you will be able to trust those around you. You don't have to go into details but having a discussion about food, water, and security are easy subjects that keep people from cringing or shying away.

[RWBlue]

If you are going to have a BOB (Bug Out Bag), you should have a BOL (Bug Out Location). If you are bugging out and don't have someplace to go you are a refuge.

As far as when to use this option...I think that is a personal decision and a government decision.

All my stuff is here, so I don't plan on leaving unless I have to. Where I live now, I don't expect to leave.

[LippCJ7]

I have my three BOL's figured out and have for awhile.

However, I have a wonderful neighborhood where my closest neighbors are like minded and we have discussed arrangements to a certain extent. I believe it to be of utmost importance to either feel completely trusting in your neighbors or move to where you can, and I cannot stress it enough especially in the first and most likely level of civil unrest or natural disaster. There will always be safety in numbers, but numbers add to your need for sustainable resources. MAG's (Mutual Aid Groups) are the most likely scenario I can see in the future, and to me they include my neighbors and my family.

No matter what scenario you try to solve, problems arise that are different from the previous scenario. You can almost drive yourself looney with it all.

I know this post is all over the place but I have become the family McGyver. By that I mean I test myself:

I am the one that takes care of the family and neighbors when we get a Blizzard as yes I have a snowcat. I also use it to deliver deputies and firefighters to work when they are needed and have used it to deliver medical supplies or stranded motorists in four counties here in CO. I also have 2 1 ton diesel 4x4 trucks that are listed with the Sheriff's Office for emergency transportation along with the snowcat. If you have never gone fourwheeling I strongly recommend it everyone should know exactly what their vehicle is capable of and how to solve issues that fourwheeling brings.

I go on 5 day hunting trips where me and my best friend live out of backpacks 2 or 3 times a year and average 20-30 miles in those 5 days. Usually 2 times for scouting elk and once for harvest. Think about it guys if your not a hunter thats fine but how many people can live out of a 60Lb backpack for 5 days at 5000' elevation and do 20 miles? Now factor in as LonghunterCO knows we don't hunt elk at 5000'. You don't have to hunt this way but what doesn't kill you makes you stronger right!?

We had a 12 hour power outage a year or two ago and I used the families 3 small generators to power each of the 3 homes in my family, not everything mind you but the refrigerator and freezers and the furnace(it was February if I remember right). Then I hooked up my neighbors important needs to mine which was big enough to handle it. That only happened once since all my neighbors acquired there own generators less then 30 days after the outage. It wasn't all that serious but it made people think!

The reason why I tell you all this is that this stuff is training, I don't have to do it but it tests me and I get enormous satisfaction out of knowing what to do when times get difficult. I have a good friend who was a marine and he always said adapt and overcome and thats what I have learned to do and I recomend everyone does as well.

Lip

[30 cal slut]

I am intrigued by this question myself. James Wesley Rawles, author of "Patriots," writes about "getting out of Dodge" ... that is, evacuate the urban centers in favor of the rural/remote retreat when the Schumer hits the fan.

On the other hand, posters on FerFAL's survival website also point out:




http://ferfal.blogspot.com/search/label/SHTF

For folks that do have a well stocked rural retreat, on the other hand, there seems to be a tendency to believe, “If I’m prepared for the apocalypse, I’m prepared for anything.” As FerFAL has pointed out in other posts, in a situation like the one in Argentina living out in the countryside can be more dangerous than living in the city. This is a big part of what really clicked with me when I read his older posts because it tallies very well with what I’ve read about the horrible things that have happened to people on isolated farms in South Africa and Zimbabwe (both recently and during the Bush War when it was Rhodesia). An economic collapse is not going to be a great time to be a small farmer.


Hmmmm....