Are Ammo Prices Going To Be Like Gas Prices

[Mac5.56]

Hey All,

I've been wondering lately as I watch all of the gun shops in my area, as well as my parents area slowly fill back up with large amounts of ammunition if we will start to see the price drop back down to the pre idiocy buying spree.

Even during the price gauging I couldn't help but smirk because I was watching the gun world do the exact same thing with Obama fear, that the Oil Speculators did under the Bush administration. I have a direct and intimate knowledge of the oil industry, and it has since been proven that much of the hype regarding the dollar pushes that brought us over 150 dollars a barrel were based purely on speculative fear, and not on rational economics and sound logic. The issue with the oil industry though was that once this all got under control, and certain massive long term investments started to pay off alongside the criticism of the speculators, the per barrel price dropped. In fact at one point in the last six months the price of oil dropped below what it was in 2005 when I moved across country and was pissed off that gas was approaching 2.40 a gallon in some of the urban areas we drove through.

Given supply and demand Gas should have dropped very closely back to pre Bush/un-regulated speculator prices. But it didn't, and the question why is being debated by many. Most however agree that it is simply because of two things: cost of production increases, and more importantly consumers are use to, and willing to pay higher prices then 6 years ago so why go back? We've accepted the inflation as consumers, so why should the oil companies worry, especially if their making 6 cents rather then 5 cents profit on each gallon of gas sold?

My question with Ammo is one and the same. Has this fear-speculation, speculation that resulted in 100% inflation on the price of ammunition and magazines in my area, ultimately led to a prices that will never actually return to previous levels? Have we reached the point where 20 dollars for a box of brass .223 is the norm non bulk price?

[Safetyhit]

My humble opinion would be that prices will come down some, but not back to the extent that we are buying at 2005 numbers again.

Think the days of $150 for 1,000 bulk rds of XM193 are over.

[mark5pt56]

In the last 2 weeks, a local store's 5.56 case price has gone from 499 to 349, PMC 55 gr ball

[rugbymike]

I've heard that once the 2nd Amendment Community realizes the current administration isn't going to do all the things they want set out to the histeria of ammo shortages will decline.

[SGM (ret.)]

I suspect that high prices are here to stay.

I'm guessing that there will be a minor drop in prices over the next 4-6 months as some of the buying frenzy subsides and manufacturing catches up to a slowed demand. Maybe we'll also see some of the speculators who thought that they could buy ammo as an investment start selling off some of their excess while competing with each other at gun shows. But in general, I think the prices we see now are about what we'll be seeing this time next year.

One thing that could change all that, though, is if some new legislation is passed that severly restricts the supply and importation of surplus and newly manufactured foreign ammo.

I think the push for micro-engraving of new manufactured US ammo is pretty much dead for the time being, fortunately. If that issue is ever resurrected in a serious way again, then look out, the sky's the limit and even re-loaders won't be able to dodge the bullet. :mad:

[LOKNLOD]

If nothing changes, politically speaking, between now and Christmas time, I suspect you'll see some extra ammo hitting the market as people who spent too much stocking up try to liquidate their assets a bit. Most people's kids, friends, and family won't accept boxes of 5.56 or 9mm as sign of affection during the holidays.

[civilian]

I don't think the prices we're seeing are heavily influenced by speculation on the part of the public. I recall a steady increase in price back in 2007 as a result of the cost of the components/materials going up.

[Outrider]

Ammo prices (at least with some calibers) seem to be coming down a bit from their highs but overall I expect ammo to cost more than it did in the past.

Eight years ago, the U.S. dollar was much stronger as a currency than it is today. Our government has been printing money and selling debt to pay for things. That practice is catching up with us now. It has severely eroded the dollar's purchasing power in the international market. When companies are looking to buy raw materials to make ammo, their dollars just don't go as far as they used to and the end user is going to get saddled with a price increase.

[SGM (ret.)]

I don't think the prices we're seeing are heavily influenced by speculation on the part of the public. I recall a steady increase in price back in 2007 as a result of the cost of the components/materials going up.

I think speculation, per se, is only one part of the entire extreme demand side of the problem, but anything that contributed to the overall demand contributed some to the price increases. That's why I don't think as those who were speculating start to sell-off that the added supply and price competion won't make much difference in long-term prices.

I was noticing the same thing with the moderate price increases a year, 18 months ago attributed to increased raw materials (copper and lead, in particular) prices. I also understood that a lot of manufacturing capacity was being used as DoD was reacting its limit of small arms ammo on-hand and was having to re-contract for more.

However, the current prices, I believe, are a reflection of insane demand more than anything else. I also believe, as the OP said, that we ammo consumers have become acustomed to the prices, have demonstrated our willingness to pay them, and the manufacturers have no incentive to return to the lower prices, so high prices are here to stay.

The only thing that might help is that supply suddenly, and dramatically increases or demand suddenly and dramatically decreases either of which could drive the manufacturers to compete by lowering prices. I suppose either could happen, but I see no indication of that any time soon. If demand just stabilizes or decreases somewhat, manufacturers could easily adjust supply to compensate and keep prices high.

[larry0071]

I'm thinking that many re-loaders will modify thier inventories and never be caught off guard again. Had I the equipment ($$$) and know how, I would be trying to get my hands on the materials to reload about 15K-20K worth of ammo.... but I would be waiting for the prices to flatten out at whatever level that seems to be. If prices started to climb again, I would make the move fast and buy.

I may shop for a used reloading kit and see if I can do it. It can't be that hard.

[rugbymike]

You got the wrong kind of family!!! I'd love a box of 5.56 or 45ACP!!!

[RogerinTPA]

Stop hoarding you ammo whores! The prices are approaching reasonable preObama prices.

[A-Bear680]

Prices were going down last summer & fall -- pretty much riding commodity price trends with a built-in delay . Then the post-election panic and hoarding drove prices through the roof.
Panic , hoarding , and -- to a lesser degree-- new gunowners were the cause of the spike. I expect prices to keep dropping , basically following world metal prices.

[Spoon]

Most people's kids, friends, and family won't accept boxes of 5.56 or 9mm as sign of affection during the holidays.
Its all I want for Christmas Santa and a Larue Dillo :D

[Telecomtodd]

One interesting indicator is a gun shop in Virginia I have been frequenting. Up until a month ago, when they had primers in stock, they were only allowing sales of 500 per customer per day. Three weeks ago it was 500 per type of primer per day, so I could score 500 large and 500 small pistol primers. This week they were allowing 1,000 primers per type per day, so I scored 2,000 heading north and 2,000 heading back south the next day. A few more trips like that and I'm not going to care about allocations for awhile. By the way, it was $36 per thousand for CCIs.