Threat Matrix - Disaster Radar

[Outlander Systems]

This thread began as an off-shoot of another thread here, that had to be created in order to not derail that.

I've started this thread to initiate a dialogue regarding everyone's personal motivator for disaster preparations.

If I said that anything other than Economic Collapse/Resource Depletion wasn't the primary motivating factor for me to seriously consider the possibility of some sort of serious, core-rattling restructuring of life as I've come to know it, I'd be a liar. Economic Collapse and Resource Depletion are bad enough on their own, but those two issues can be compounded by the fact that they can lead governments down a very slippery slope, up to and including thermonuclear warfare.

Josh posted this link, which sent me down this course:
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.08/tshtf1.html

Ferfal's analysis is an excellent resource. Consider him a "Subject Matter Expert".

That being said, The United States faces a much more dire outcome, should a total banking collapse occur (This is a scenario that, unfortunately, I believe has a high level of probability).

I will not go into conspiracy theories/who-knew-what discussions on this topic, due to the fact that, conspiracy or coincidence, the end results in the same outcome.

I've had this discussion with my brother, an Economist, and something dawned on me as he was explaining the possibility of an Argentine-style collapse in the US.

The Argentine Peso was NOT the world's reserve currency, this alone puts more at risk for us. As well, the Argentine population was more homogeneous; unlike the US which despite the "melting pot" propaganda, often is truly a network of subcultural enclaves, even within ethnic majorities/minorities. This fragmented national culture can cause a lot of strife if people don't remain calm. The only hope that we have for mitigating in-fighting amongst the populace is to remember that we are all Americans, most of us believe in the precepts that this nation was founded upon, and in times of crisis, often do band together under Old Glory. If we can remain patriotic, and remember that the people, regardless of where we come from or what skin suit we're wearing, are America, a lot of the social upheaval/chaos can be greatly reduced.

The ramifications of this (reserve currency status) can be extremely bad.

The discussion with my brother, led us to discuss what items would be sorely missed, should the dollar dieoff occur, and an appreciation for how little is produced domestically truly set in. Very little clothing is still manufactured stateside. With hyperinflation/deflation/disinflation kicking in (pick your poison), coupled with no foreign entities willing to trade goods for dollars at any amount, this could lead to some nasty supply logistics, on a personal level. Depending on the duration of the meltdown/protracted Great(er) Depression, prior to manufacturing coming on-line (if it does at all), obtaining certain items may prove to be extremely difficult. One glaring example to me is a lack of affordable footwear. Boots. Depending on the daily-compounded rate of inflation/CPI, a pair of US-made boots might be more than your monthly take-home, assuming you still have an income.

I'll go into this topic more, when I have the chance to sit down and really break it out, but the direction we're headed in doesn't look good.

Currently, I still hold on to the belief that collapse will be a slow, grinding, drawn-out emergency coupled with a serious decline in our collective standard of living. In 2004, I would have never believed we'd be where we're at, as rapidly as we have arrived, nor would I believe we'd still be pushing the accelerator to the floorboard. Regardless, I'm not a fast-crash Kool-Aide drinker.

All that aside, what are some of the items on your personal "radar"?

Pandemic Virus?

Nuclear War?

Terrorism?

Peak Oil?

Each has its own set of challenges, and each shapes how one prepares for a large-scale disaster, to a certain extent.

[tpd223]

Off the top of my head, I worry about what will happen to an already fragile economy if the Swine Flu hits us badly, and how badly things will go if/when we pull out of Iraq.

If we walk out lke we did in Viet Nam, and the country quickly crashes, gas prices certainly aren't going to get any better.

Then, well, there's China.....

[Outlander Systems]

All the above are valid points.

On a side note, it's a good thing I wasn't in command during the Hainan Island affair, or Beijing would be glass.

[zushwa]

All the above are valid points.

On a side note, it's a good thing I wasn't in command during the Hainan Island affair, or Beijing would be glass.

Not to derail the topic (because it's a good one) but are you speaking of the EP3 incident? That was probably one of our nations most successful uses of foreign policy and diplomacy. I worked with two crew members and they never felt a need for an escalation of force.

Back on topic. I think we can all see a need for preparation. My concern is the actions of our government to "fix" any problems that arise. My nightmare is if things get so bad that it's determined we need "help" from a foreign entity.

[Outlander Systems]

Not to derail the topic (because it's a good one) but are you speaking of the EP3 incident?

Affirmative. I'd take just about any excuse to glaze Beijing though. I just remember being royally pissed at the time over that.

[MIKE G]

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[kaiservontexas]

Because hurricanes happen (my most likely and been through several) . . . because their are natural threats running the gambit from volcanoes to comets . . . because it is always boring until somebody does something stupid, e.g. human caused catastrophe . . . because when seconds count minutes are eternities . . .