View Full Version : Will N Korea Fall?
From a S. Korean newspaper
http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/02/04/2010020400827.html
NK already has failed, it's simply the worlds largest labor camp.
I think the collapse of N Korea is inevitable. Once the great leader dies there will be a fight for power. My concern is whether the North will try and take the South down with it.
ForTehNguyen
02-05-10, 12:23
they devalued their currency by a factor of 100 or 1000 last year, like pouring napalm on the fire of an economy they had
I think it will fall like a house of cards, quite suddenly, such that the North govt cannot do anything to the South. It will happen too fast. Once the people realize that they have power (and from the comments in the linked article that appears to have started happening) it will mushroom very quickly.
The real question is can the south absorb the north or at least a gazillion N refugees.
Germany had to absorb the east and things were not anywhere as bad and it is stil an ongoing process there 20 years later
The_War_Wagon
02-05-10, 16:33
I think it will fall like a house of cards, quite suddenly, such that the North govt cannot do anything to the South. It will happen too fast. Once the people realize that they have power (and from the comments in the linked article that appears to have started happening) it will mushroom very quickly.
The real question is can the south absorb the north or at least a gazillion N refugees.
Germany had to absorb the east and things were not anywhere as bad and it is stil an ongoing process there 20 years later
Excellent historical reference. South Korea is a strong economic engine in the far east, but I think that's the $64 question - the refugees will be a B-I-G problem.
At least, 20 years ago, Reaganomics was fueling the worldwide economic boom, and West Germany was able to put East Germans to work SOMEWHERE. In this economy, that's gonna be a whole lot tougher - even in the east, where the economy is in beter shape than ours (save for Japan).
ThirdWatcher
02-05-10, 16:34
I wouldn't be surprised if North and South Korea reunited someday, once some of the prime players are gone and the US will be blamed for keeping them apart. When I served in Korea, the older folks were very anti-communist and they remembered the war. Although their military was very capable, they were glad to have the US there as a tripwire. I think that now their young people (like ours) aren't really interested in history.
Cagemonkey
02-05-10, 19:25
I have a theory, though I admit it isn't based on any hard facts or evidence. I believe that N Korea is a puppet of China. Without the support of the Chinese, N korea would never had made this long. China uses N Korea as a distraction/ diversion to their own intensions. N Korea is a Chinese proxy. China won't let N Korea fail.
GermanSynergy
02-05-10, 21:14
Interesting view and I agree 100%. China can play both sides of the street, playing the "good" guy by acting as an intermediary between us and NK, while egging the Norks on to stir the pot once in a while. Just my 2 cents...
I have a theory, though I admit it isn't based on any hard facts or evidence. I believe that N Korea is a puppet of China. Without the support of the Chinese, N korea would never had made this long. China uses N Korea as a distraction/ diversion to their own intensions. N Korea is a Chinese proxy. China won't let N Korea fail.
No doubt North Korea is a nice buffer that can also be used create a distraction - latest intelligence public today is rockets with range to hit US in next decade(few years). This was the thought late 90s too.
I could see this going either way, but if China has their way, they will keep North Korea just where they are - isolated, indoctrinated and just fed enough to keep alive.
arizonaranchman
02-05-10, 22:54
North Korea is basically irrelevant anymore.
Iran is our most urgent problem but in fact our greatest enemy is China. They sit like a spider waiting for us to deteriorate from within as they plot to become #1 in the world. I fear they haven't got long to wait...
Interesting video on a small group of journalists who were able to get inside the country and get some footage: http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/02/08/vbs.north.korea/index.html?hpt=C1
I think it will fall like a house of cards, quite suddenly, such that the North govt cannot do anything to the South. It will happen too fast. Once the people realize that they have power (and from the comments in the linked article that appears to have started happening) it will mushroom very quickly.
The real question is can the south absorb the north or at least a gazillion N refugees.
Germany had to absorb the east and things were not anywhere as bad and it is stil an ongoing process there 20 years later
I think the question to ask before you talk about reunification is will the North Korean people be able to realize they have the power. Think about it. You have a society that is literally brain washed into thinking that their leader is a god; Infallible, completely worthy of every bit of devotion; emotional attachment, etc.. I honestly think that North Korea will only be reunited with the south after a vast majority dies from starvation / disease. The problem I see is that as that majority is dying, they launch a final attack of retribution on the south.
ThirdWatcher
02-10-10, 21:27
I have a theory, though I admit it isn't based on any hard facts or evidence. I believe that N Korea is a puppet of China. Without the support of the Chinese, N korea would never had made this long. China uses N Korea as a distraction/ diversion to their own intensions. N Korea is a Chinese proxy. China won't let N Korea fail.
I've got no inside info, but I think that's pretty astute thinking. :)
Thomas M-4
02-10-10, 21:32
NK will stand as long as china wants it to. It is a puppet state of china after all.
interesting tid-bit
http://foxnews.mobi/quickPage.html?page=22995&content=34985953&pageNum=-1
If they disintegrate, the problem will be integrating millions of formerly communist north koreans into normal korean society. It would be like adding mexico onto the US as a few more states and letting them vote for our president. For germany it wasn't a complete disaster, but I think it negatively affected the culture and political structure. Communist countries usually go out with a whimper, because at that point there literally isn't any morale or economic activity left.
There's no shortage of food or aid in the world right now.
South Korea would have to go to an extremely decentralized government.
I think it will fall like a house of cards, quite suddenly, such that the North govt cannot do anything to the South. It will happen too fast. Once the people realize that they have power (and from the comments in the linked article that appears to have started happening) it will mushroom very quickly.
The real question is can the south absorb the north or at least a gazillion N refugees.
Germany had to absorb the east and things were not anywhere as bad and it is stil an ongoing process there 20 years later
I would agree with all of this. Despite their militant population, they must loathe their own existence and want better as human beings. I think...
But what will they do with all of those potentially free but still very lost souls?
Mauser KAR98K
03-12-10, 17:44
Hopefully it will fall without a shot.
GermanSynergy
03-12-10, 17:51
Hopefully it will fall without a shot.
As hard as it is to believe, there are a group of psychotic leftists that support North Korea, and they organize a trip to Pyongyang every year. I saw something on Youtube. The organization is run by a Spanish communist, and even a few Americans were marching in their propaganda parade to denounce the US. They even took a trip to the JSA/DMZ, and shouted "Yankee go home", or some such nonsense.
:rolleyes:
We all ASSumed North Korea would self destruct when Kim Il-Sung died. The younger Kim stepped in without a hitch. If/when the current psychotic "Beloved Leader" dies, another, selected by the Party elite and approved by the PRC, will take his place.
Unless/until the PRC removes their support to the NK regime, there will be no collapse, and no radical changes.
Just my opinion, of course, and worth precisely what you paid for it.
Regards,
Kevin
north korea cant do anything BUT fall... i've recently watched a couplefew documentaries on the place, seen some inside footage of life for the masses on the other side of the wall... its un-****ing-believable how bad life is for those millions of poor SOBs.
when it falls, however, it won't be as simple as reuniting north and south. it'll be 20 million (? cant remember exacly how many folks up there) unemployed, starving, brain-washed refugees fleeing for the boarders. south k wont be able to support half of them, and china will BIG payment to help.. maybe even annexation. there is at least some degree of infrastructure- some wise investments could probably turn the place into a productive region.
Mauser KAR98K
03-12-10, 23:09
As hard as it is to believe, there are a group of psychotic leftists that support North Korea, and they organize a trip to Pyongyang every year. I saw something on Youtube. The organization is run by a Spanish communist, and even a few Americans were marching in their propaganda parade to denounce the US. They even took a trip to the JSA/DMZ, and shouted "Yankee go home", or some such nonsense.
:rolleyes:
Well, lets be glad there are the some, and not the many.
Nathan_Bell
03-13-10, 07:59
If they disintegrate, the problem will be integrating millions of formerly communist north koreans into normal korean society. It would be like adding mexico onto the US as a few more states and letting them vote for our president. For germany it wasn't a complete disaster, but I think it negatively affected the culture and political structure. Communist countries usually go out with a whimper, because at that point there literally isn't any morale or economic activity left.
There's no shortage of food or aid in the world right now.
South Korea would have to go to an extremely decentralized government.
Did you forget your sarcasm tag on that statement?
The only food shortages you see are countries starving their own people to death out of pride or malice.
Nathan_Bell
03-13-10, 13:19
The only food shortages you see are countries starving their own people to death out of pride or malice.
Yup, but there isn't enough sitting around to suddenly feed 20 M Norks. Global grain stockpiles are low, as in 30 year low range. Keep them fed better than they are now, probably, but not enough to give them what most of the world considers a proper caloric intake.
Looks like things are heating up.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/03/26/south-korean-navy-ship-sinking-near-border-n-korea/
The South Korean navy has reportedly fired shots at unidentified ships in the direction of North Korea as it investigates whether a sinking vessel in its fleet was struck by a torpedo Friday.
Military officials said the 1,200-ton ship Cheonan was patrolling in waters south of the maritime border with North Korea when an explosion occurred at the stern of the ship, which carries a crew of 104 sailors, KBS World Radio reported.
South Korean broadcaster SBS said many of the sailors were feared dead, as the country's president, Lee Myung-Bak, called an emergency meeting of security-related ministers.
Twenty-four sailors have been rescued from the vessel, officials told the Korea Herald, and navy ships and helicopters continue to circle in an attempt to save more crew members, KBS World Radio reported.
There was no word on the cause of the explosion or any casualties, but officials did not rule out the possibility of an attack from North Korea.
South Korea's YTN TV network said the government was investigating whether the explosion was caused by a torpedo attack from the North, and KBS reported news that the another South Korean ship fired at unidentified vessels while patrolling nearby waters.
Reuters and the Associated Press contributed to this report.
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