SHTF probability?

[a1fabweld]

I started prepping pretty hard back in 11/08 (for obvious reasons). I'm still adding to my inventory. Seems like things have been relatively stable for a little while. What are your thoughts on the SHTF climate currently & in the near future? Please share.

[6933]

Low probability. Also depends on your idea of what a SHTF situation is. However, most prep for the possibility. That's where store what you eat, eat what you store comes in. More in-depth preps give peace of mind and increases probability of making it through severe situations. Our motto is: Better to have it and not need it than to need it and not to have it. Prepping could literally be the difference b/w life and death. Make sure to not forget regular training classes so you can defend you and yours.

[Beat Trash]

Depends on what you consider a SHTF event to be.

A hurricane, earthquake, tornado, ice storm, terrorist event, economic collapse, attack of zombie mother-in-law's, ect.

I think the probability is kind of low. But I also consider the probability of getting a flat tire to be kind of low. I still carry a spare tire, just in case.

I use the same line of thought with my SHTF preps.

[a1fabweld]

My train of thought is along the same lines with you guys as far as piece of mind. I'm not concerned about zombies or the fantasy SHTF stuff. I'm more or less concerned about an economic meltdown. Things don't seem to be getting better with the economy in general. More waves of forcloseures are expected. Gold is still on the rise. Unemployment still horrible. Etc... Just thinking out loud.

[The Dumb Gun Collector]

TEOTWAWKI:Vanishingly low. This is more of a neurosis than anything else.

SHTF: in the sense of being seriously affected by hurricanes, brief social disorder, etc. I would say 25% or so over a lifetime.

[Hmac]

TEOTWAWKI:Vanishingly low. This is more of a neurosis than anything else.Absolutely. A Hollywood fantasy.


SHTF: in the sense of being seriously affected by hurricanes, brief social disorder, etc. I would say 25% or so over a lifetime.Depends hugely on where you live. Natural disasters are going to be the main driver of SHTF scenarios and most places aren't prone to such events of sufficient magnitude to do that. 25% chance is way high in the vast majority of the country IMHO.

[That Guy v2.0]

The most likely scenario with a better than 50% probability would be a dollar collapse. To catch the prequel on this check out the Euro collapse coming soon to a theater near you, within 12-18 months.

Ireland just sold themselves down the river for a few more months of solvency. Portugal is on deck at a 325% debt to GDP ratio. Spain goes after that. After Ireland their will be no more bailout money that does not have a lot of fresh, wet ink on it.

For those with a finance/economics interest that like unfiltered no BS/MSM bias check this site out and enjoy.

www.zerohedge.com

[hikeeba]

Hi guys. This is my first visit to this particular forum here at M4C. I have been discussing this topic a little bit on another forum recently, so I'd thought I'd pop in here and see what's happening.

I went through a period some years ago when I was pretty focused on SHTF/EOTWAWKI situations. The notion had a firm grasp on my imagination. Looking back on those days I realize I was quite naive, and was far more focused on the tactical rather than the practical.

I have since relaxed my attitude towards SHTF/EOTWAWKI scenarios. I'm not saying I've entirely let my guard down, or that I see no need to prepare - I just don't spend a lot of time worrying about it. With times and technology today, I do not foresee a SHTF/EOTWAWKI situation happening suddenly - like going from civil society to absolute chaos within 24 hours. Weather phenomena can be somewhat predicted, we have the ability to detect cosmic threats (asteroids, solar flares, not aliens), and there are often warning signs that precipitate a massive earthquake or volcanic erruption (though this can be debated). As for economic collapse or war, I think those scenarios would have much more of a lead time than any natural disaster. Terrorist attacks, on the other hand, are much more difficult to anticipate than everything else previously mentioned. I think if nay one event can actually catch people off guard, it will be a terrorist attack. As with everything, your mileage may vary depending on your location.

Back to me, I am not overly concerned about SHTF/EOTHWAWKI. But I say that as a person who totes a backpack around that contains food and gear to aid me in the event I need to walk home from work or a shopping trip. I guess I don't have any concrete plans for what to do if a major sitiation would unexpectedly occur, but I do have ideas. I guess I see too many variables and possibilities of how things could go wrong, and that is why I am reluctant to formulate concrete plans. My luck would be that no matter how well designed my plans A through W would be, they would be compromised or FUBARed in some way, some how.


Maybe spending time with a township paid-on-call fire department wrecked my way of thinking about SHTF/EOTWAWKI. When you're dispatched to a structure fire, you know there will be a structure and a fire. But you won't know many, or any details about the structure or the fire until you get there. Only after arrival on the scene can the first-in engine size up the situation and formulate a plan of attack - or defense. And that plan will change through the course of the incident as more details are learned. I think the same also applies to the EMS side.



So yeah... SHTF is always a thought-provoking topic. I will admit that I have been thinking about it more over the last few months than I have over the last few years. Hmmm...

[a1fabweld]

I have friends from all over the spectrum in regards to their idea of preparedness & SHTF scenarios. Some of my buds feel the need to update me daily/weekly on what was said on the Alex Jones show. HAHA! Some say nothing is ever going to happen. I'm somewhere in between. I never gave a crap about it before I had kids. Now I feel responsible as a parent to prepare for my kids. I don't dwell on the stuff or live in a state of panic constantly like some, but it's always in the back of my mind. I see how much I pay yearly in Health insurance, life insurance, liability insurance, & auto insurance. I see money spent on preparedness as another insurance policy.

Most everything I buy, I buy in 4's (one for each member in the fam). I only plan on what will fit in the truck to head to our predetermined destination. I recently put all my gear in totes and keep them together. I don't want to be searching the house at the last minute for gear in case we have to leave.

Some things I still need to purchase are good sleeping bags (rated for 20*) & flashlights (which run on AA batteries). I've been trying to standardize the few electronic devices in my inventory to take AA batteries which I will get solar chargers for. Any suggestions on some sturdy, compact AA flashlights with good runtime? I recently discovered Fenix lights which look good, but I'd like to hear some reviews before I purchase them.

[Jack-O]

A COMPLETE breakdown of society like mad max type stuff... <1%

A break down of society as we currently know it, to include the reduction in technology and reversion to older more robust technology... 45%

A collapse of the Dollar in the next 5-10 years 99% certainty. Now what that will means to you is unknown and spans the realm of possbilities.

A reduction of the earths population of at least 20% thru multiple means in the next 30 years... 90%

Possibility of foreign attack in a red dawn type scenario... 8% chance

possibility we are already under attack and our freedom is being slowly taken 100%.

possibility of a break up of the united states and split into regional factions... 50%+ in >20 years.

possibility of a natural disaster needing back up power and food and water supplies of at least 3 days... 50% in your lifetime could be much less or much more in your area.

Commerce will ALWAYS continue. people will always need food shelter and companionship, government will always continue in some form, taxes will always be needed. violence and kindness will always be around.

In any event 7-30 days of food and water, a generator, a couple of weapons and training, some fuel and a non-utility dependant heat/cooking source, a reliable water source and a way to get to it with your own resources, a bicycle a back pack maybe even some garden seeds a shovel, rake and a couple of buckets is cheap insurance against most disasters. THESE are things you can do with a SIMPLE lifestyle change and purchasing a little extra everytime you buy food.

Preparing for TEOTWAWKI apocalypse is a whole other deal.

Best thing to remember in ANY EVENT or ANY PREP is to only do things that IMPROVE your situation as a whole (this means no debt, or choices that set back your overall situation...even temporarily)

Oh, dont listen to Alex Jones either, you'll be FAAR better off emotionally if you dont.

[WillBrink]

I started prepping pretty hard back in 11/08 (for obvious reasons). I'm still adding to my inventory. Seems like things have been relatively stable for a little while. What are your thoughts on the SHTF climate currently & in the near future? Please share.

There's a 73.9% chance of SHTF within 2 years. But seriously, one could theorize such a thing using and number of possibilities, and it's more or less moot. Prepare as best you can that is reasonable to you, and live for the day. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. The other shit will sort itself out, or it wont.

[K.L. Davis]

It is not the probability of it happening, it is the probability of you preparing for it.