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1776 Patriot
12-25-10, 13:32
Been doing lots of research on EMP. It truly is the worst case senerio IMO. Nothing and I mean nothing comes close to what would happen to this country should such an event happen. I don't see any other event short of a 'nuclear' event that would have a 75-90% casulity rate after only a few months. And to think our government doesn't really consider this to be even remotely possible or they would be actually doing something about it. Well, except for the military as they're actually hardening some of there equipment. I can't be the only one concerned about this I hope......

Steve

rsgard
12-25-10, 13:45
EMP effects have many variables. High altitude, low altitude, and yield. Depending on those variables the effects on electronics is not absolute. Its documented that the effects are kind of hit or miss with electronics surviving that were not expected to while another that was expected to survive did not. From what ive read EMPs do not have the mythical range that most people think. The high altitude EMPs that have the most range effect electrical transmission lines the most while possibly leaving electronics "off the grid" uncompromised.

Studies have also shown that EMP protection is fairly simple and where its not viable repair is fairly straightforward.

EMP studies have been around since the 40s. Its not like its a new thing. I would be more worried about the neutron bomb. i know if the electrical grid goes down that I WILL survive.

MarshallDodge
12-25-10, 13:55
Sure, we have a lot of enemies but who in their right mind would launch an EMP attack against us?

I guarantee our nukes are well protected from an EMP attack and the minute we figured out who launched it there would be scorched earth in that part of the world within minutes.

rsgard
12-25-10, 14:11
Sure, we have a lot of enemies but who in their right mind would launch an EMP attack against us?

I guarantee our nukes are well protected from an EMP attack and the minute we figured out who launched it there would be scorched earth in that part of the world within minutes.

By launching a military attack on US soil the attacker basically commits suicide.

Notice i said military attack, terrorist would be a completely different scenario.

DMack
12-25-10, 14:37
I read the book "One Second After" and it opened my eyes to a lot of things. Possible? Yes. Probable? Not really.

What I fear the most, is the economic collapse and isntability / over taxing our EMS / Law Enforcement.

Once the money runs out, and it is headed that way quickly... people take to the streets. At work, we jokingly refer to that as "when the Zombies come".

Heavy Metal
12-25-10, 17:19
By launching a military attack on US soil the attacker basically commits suicide.

Notice i said military attack, terrorist would be a completely different scenario.

Untill Terrorists possess ICBM's with throw weights capable of lofting multi-Megaton Hydrogen bombs and also multi-Megaton Hydrogen bombs, we needn't fear Terrorist EMP.

Right now only only four powers possess that capability.

pilotguyo540
12-25-10, 17:37
I don't think an EMP would do that much damage. Sure it would cost billions to get back to where we are now, but I think Americans are some pretty crafty mo'fo's when we need to be.

1776 Patriot
12-26-10, 08:41
Sure, we have a lot of enemies but who in their right mind would launch an EMP attack against us?

I guarantee our nukes are well protected from an EMP attack and the minute we figured out who launched it there would be scorched earth in that part of the world within minutes.

Iran's been test firing "high altitude" missles off ships for over five years now. You don't need a 'high tech' ICBM to launch even a low yield nuke over land off the east coast to cause 1/2 the country to be off the grid for over a year. Experts have said that in such a senerio, we would NOT know who attacked us, and they know this. No scorched earth for them, and that's why we should be concerned.

1776 Patriot
12-26-10, 08:42
By launching a military attack on US soil the attacker basically commits suicide.

Notice i said military attack, terrorist would be a completely different scenario.

See above.....

1776 Patriot
12-26-10, 08:57
I read the book "One Second After" and it opened my eyes to a lot of things. Possible? Yes. Probable? Not really.

What I fear the most, is the economic collapse and isntability / over taxing our EMS / Law Enforcement.


I thought the same thing up to about a year ago. I bet you didn't know that Iran sold our good friend to the south Hugo Chavez, there newest 3 stage missle the Shabab 3. Now ask yourself, WHY DOES CHAVEZ, Iran's best newset buddy, need a missle that has been redesigned with an updated nose cone to except Nukes??? In fact it's almost an exact copy of the Russian nose cone design. One missle coming from the Gulf area, fired over the south will cause a 'grid down' senerio for probably 75% of the US.
Iran has actually said that this is something they would like to do to us, test fired missles with a "high altitude" flight pattern(which experts have said didn't make any since, and people still don't think this is something to be worried about!?? And if all this isn't enough, Russia has a stand alone missle system, designed to be fired from SHIPS that look like a cargo container and will sell it to anyone with the money. All you need is a missle and a nuke. Well, Iran and North Korea have been working together on both for years now. Feel any safer now??

1776 Patriot
12-26-10, 09:01
I don't think an EMP would do that much damage. Sure it would cost billions to get back to where we are now, but I think Americans are some pretty crafty mo'fo's when we need to be.

The EMP would NOT do any phyiscal damage. It's the damage done to anything with a 'diode' which, unfortunetly is just about everything we use today. With a 75-90% casuality rate after the first 3 months, I think it's somthing to be concerned about......

SuperiorDG
12-26-10, 09:09
I read "One Second After" about six months ago and have been looking into this threat. This video is a good explanation of the theory.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0odJKYTzXg8

1776 Patriot
12-26-10, 09:18
The high altitude EMPs that have the most range effect electrical transmission lines the most while possibly leaving electronics "off the grid" uncompromised.

Studies have also shown that EMP protection is fairly simple and where its not viable repair is fairly straightforward.

EMP studies have been around since the 40s. Its not like its a new thing. I would be more worried about the neutron bomb. i know if the electrical grid goes down that I WILL survive.


High altitude EMP's are the most feared for a reason. They would cause a "grid down" senerio for a year, possibly more. Do use realize we depend on OVERSEAS distributors for ALL of our electrical transformers?? The EMP commission has said that it would take AT LEAST a year to get just the transformers made overseas. That's just the transformers. Who's going to replace them?? What about all the other critical components that will be fried and need replacing? And yes, EMP protection is fairly straightforward, BUT WE ARE NOT PROTECTING OUR GRID. The military is the only one doing anything about this. EMP is not a new thing, yea your right. The Russians have been testing effects of EMP since the early sixties. In fact, they have HIGH YIELD nukes in there arsonal, WHY?? You may want to Google 'Soviet Test 184'...........

DMack
12-26-10, 09:26
1776... I know quite a bit about this threat. In fact, been studying it for a while now.

I monitor this site all the time. Some interesting information on there... http://www.empactamerica.org/

1776 Patriot
12-26-10, 09:26
I read "One Second After" about six months ago and have been looking into this threat. This video is a good explanation of the theory.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0odJKYTzXg8

I too have read One Second After. This is pretty much what would happen after an EMP attack. The author has done extensive research on EMP and has been trying to educate the public to what has been called the doomsday weapon. I just can't believe that with so much evidence on what Iran, North Korea, and even Russia have been doing, AND SAYING on EMP that most people don't know that this is probably the worst thing that would happen to the U.S. and it could happen tomorrow with NO warning.....

1776 Patriot
12-26-10, 09:28
1776... I know quite a bit about this threat. In fact, been studying it for a while now.

I monitor this site all the time. Some interesting information on there... http://www.empactamerica.org/

That is the site I get most of my info from!! Thanks for posting it so that others can learn more about what I believe is our biggest threat today. Should have done it myself. I listen to the live podcasts every Wed.

zpo
12-26-10, 10:02
They would cause a "grid down" senerio for a year, possibly more.


It takes a year (18 months) to manufacture one of the large transformers. Currently, there is a three year waiting list. The demand of completely outfitting all essential generators and substations would spike the wait exponentially. Nat Geo's Explorer did a program on this, and I recall it being said that it would take 10 years to bring the U.S.A. back to pre-detonation condition. The name of the program was Electronic Armageddon. It was on Hulu some time back.

MarshallDodge
12-26-10, 10:32
I would need to see some good evidence that a transformer could be taken down by an EMP. They take lightening strikes on a regular basis and survive.

pilotguyo540
12-26-10, 10:47
It takes a year (18 months) to manufacture one of the large transformers. Currently, there is a three year waiting list. The demand of completely outfitting all essential generators and substations would spike the wait exponentially. Nat Geo's Explorer did a program on this, and I recall it being said that it would take 10 years to bring the U.S.A. back to pre-detonation condition. The name of the program was Electronic Armageddon. It was on Hulu some time back.

I think you can make a transformer in much less time. Really it is a bucket with 2 windings (calculated to drop to the appropriate voltage) insulated insulated from each other. This is repeated 3 times in a typical industrial transformer, but we have all of the materials to build them here. We have people who can make them too. They are very robust. I am more concerned with power generation failure. Solid state components are likely to fail. These are small controlling electronic components usually found on printed circuit boards. Main electrical components are usually little more than copper wire. An EMP is not going to hurt copper wire.

zpo
12-26-10, 10:56
MarshallDodge- Google the E3 effects of EMP, thats the transformer killer.

pilotguyo540- Thats the timeframe for the 100 ton and larger transformers on power stations and sub stations, not the little ones on poles. And the large ones are no longer made in this country, globalization.

500grains
12-26-10, 11:33
Sure, we have a lot of enemies but who in their right mind would launch an EMP attack against us?


China.

The Chinese military has a very active periodical circulation, and active duty officers write articles with various theories and proposals. One that seems to have gained traction is that in order to eventually retake Taiwan, China will have to keep the USN at a standoff distance for a couple of months. To achieve that, the published proposal was to locate and nuke any US carrier groups in the pacific, nuke the Marines on Okinawa, nuke the forces in ROK, and nuke Guam.

The author's reasoning was that the US would not be willing to risk a full scale nuclear war over Taiwan and thus to avoid nuclear strikes in the USA, the U.S. would not respond to the Pacific nuclear attacks. Personally I think the logic of the author is insane, but remarkably this concept gained widespread traction within the PLA. The civilian leadership in Beijing told those frisky PLA officers to STFU.

My point is that if military leadership could engage in such a thought process and really think the US would not respond to the nuking of carrier groups and several military bases, then they might also think that they could drop an EMP without consequences.

Looks like I will have to search ebayautos.com for a good Willys Jeep and lay in a supply of extra parts for it. :)

Or maybe not. In the event of 90% casualties, those who survive will not have to worry about supplies for a while. Not only will there be protein lying about all over the place, but there will be food storage and other supplies generally available with so few people competing for it.

And housing values may drop.

zpo
12-26-10, 11:45
By the way, who is predicting short term casualties of 75-90% in the event of an EMP?



Not who you're asking, but-
I have heard, can't remember where now, that a study of EMP effects in America stated 90% die off after a year. Near 100% East coast, 80% mid west, thats all I remember of the break down.
Starvation and "old" diseases are the main culprit.

Irish
12-26-10, 11:51
Interesting topic... I just got the book One Second After for Christmas and will be starting it this week. Thanks for the link to that other site, some interesting info there.

Heavy Metal
12-26-10, 12:19
Iran's been test firing "high altitude" missles off ships for over five years now. You don't need a 'high tech' ICBM to launch even a low yield nuke over land off the east coast to cause 1/2 the country to be off the grid for over a year. Experts have said that in such a senerio, we would NOT know who attacked us, and they know this. No scorched earth for them, and that's why we should bene concerned.

A low-yield nuke would not do it. You need a multi-megaton Teller-Ulam device and one small enough to be launched to a sufficient altitude, something currently well beyond the Iranians.

Heavy Metal
12-26-10, 12:22
MarshallDodge- Google the E3 effects of EMP, thats the transformer killer.

pilotguyo540- Thats the timeframe for the 100 ton and larger transformers on power stations and sub stations, not the little ones on poles. And the large ones are no longer made in this country, globalization.

Bullshit, they make them 40 miles from where I live at the ABB factory. I have an old school friend who is a shift manager there.

zpo
12-26-10, 12:28
Huh, what company?

NM, http://www.abb.com/ This one? Their products look to be industrial, like factories and airports. Any more info?

ABB's site links to press reports that state-
Bland, Albany, build "small" transformers, for industrial apps like factories and airports. South Boston builds small transformers that are city and big industry sized.

I haven't found what size the St. Louis plant builds, all the news reports are about a shooting over 401 k lawsuit.

What size (MVA) do they build near you, Heavy Metal?

1776 Patriot
12-26-10, 14:02
A low-yield nuke would not do it. You need a multi-megaton Teller-Ulam device and one small enough to be launched to a sufficient altitude, something currently well beyond the Iranians.

That's NOT true. You should read the EMP commissions report. It states even a 1 megaton Nuke would do it, although you would get better results with a higher yield weapon, it's not needed to take down the grid for a L O N G time. Also, I guess you don't know about the high altitude 3 stage Shabab 3 missles Iran has been firing off ships for over 5 years now?? In fact, our friend Hugo Chavez has recently bought some from Iran. Feel any safer now? The Soviets have been testing EMP nukes for YEARS and know exactly what it takes and in fact even threatend us(2006) with an EMP attack. That info came from one of our own representitives (Roscoe Bartlet) who were at a conference overseas when threatend by 2 Russian military representitives. You can hear this yourself at: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/empact-radio Like I said, been doing LOTS of research and this info isn't just 'hearsay'. Hope this helps.

1776 Patriot
12-26-10, 14:07
Bullshit, they make them 40 miles from where I live at the ABB factory. I have an old school friend who is a shift manager there.

Even if this were true, how they going to manufacture them with NO POWER?? Who is going to stay there and make them even if they did have power when the world around them is in total chaos??

SuperiorDG
12-26-10, 14:16
Not who you're asking, but-
I have heard, can't remember where now, that a study of EMP effects in America stated 90% die off after a year. Near 100% East coast, 80% mid west, thats all I remember of the break down.
Starvation and "old" diseases are the main culprit.

Its in the book "One Second After."

RogerinTPA
12-26-10, 16:54
I worry more about economic collapse through redistributive wealth schemes (Obama Care, Cap & Trade/Tax, Climate Change, Etc...), over spending, Amnesty for Illegals, Funding for Illegals for free education (Oh yeah, been shot down) and border security, then I ever would for EMP.

zpo
12-26-10, 17:53
I worry about CME's not EMP from manmade sources.

Thomas M-4
12-26-10, 18:13
That's NOT true. You should read the EMP commissions report. It states even a 1 megaton Nuke would do it, although you would get better results with a higher yield weapon, it's not needed to take down the grid for a L O N G time. Also, I guess you don't know about the high altitude 3 stage Shabab 3 missles Iran has been firing off ships for over 5 years now?? In fact, our friend Hugo Chavez has recently bought some from Iran. Feel any safer now? The Soviets have been testing EMP nukes for YEARS and know exactly what it takes and in fact even threatend us(2006) with an EMP attack. That info came from one of our own representitives (Roscoe Bartlet) who were at a conference overseas when threatend by 2 Russian military representitives. You can hear this yourself at: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/empact-radio Like I said, been doing LOTS of research and this info isn't just 'hearsay'. Hope this helps.

Any detonation of a EMP weapon would be considered a first strike weapon. The military would respond with nuclear weapons on the country of origin.

Heavy Metal
12-26-10, 18:14
That's NOT true. You should read the EMP commissions report. It states even a 1 megaton Nuke would do it, although you would get better results with a higher yield weapon, it's not needed to take down the grid for a L O N G time. Also, I guess you don't know about the high altitude 3 stage Shabab 3 missles Iran has been firing off ships for over 5 years now?? In fact, our friend Hugo Chavez has recently bought some from Iran. Feel any safer now? The Soviets have been testing EMP nukes for YEARS and know exactly what it takes and in fact even threatend us(2006) with an EMP attack. That info came from one of our own representitives (Roscoe Bartlet) who were at a conference overseas when threatend by 2 Russian military representitives. You can hear this yourself at: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/empact-radio Like I said, been doing LOTS of research and this info isn't just 'hearsay'. Hope this helps.

And what makes you think 1 Megaton is low yield? That is still a hydrogen device and about 67 times larger than the device that nuked Hiroshima.

Anything Iran could build at this stage would be a Hiroshima type Fat Man or Little Boy device. They are a long ways from building a Teller-Ulam Fission-fusion device and much farther from minaturizing it to fit on that Shabab 3 bottle rocket. Early Hydrogen bombs required the better part of the bomb-bay of a heavy bomber to carry, weighting many thousands of pounds and they are farther still from that.

So what if the Russians are threating it? Of couse they can build one, they have large ICBM's and 20 Megaton Warheads they can put on them. They can threaten whatever they like, we have bunches of stuff that can make things nice and glassy for them we can fire back too.

The last thing the Russians want to do is get into a full-scale exchange with us considering the state of their rocket forces and submarines, they would be lucky to be able to actually detonate a small fraction of their arsenal. We would do better by orders of magnitude. The strategic rocket forces ain't living in their glory years of the mid-80's anymore. Their shit is seriously decrepit.

Heavy Metal
12-26-10, 18:21
I worry about CME's not EMP from manmade sources.

Absoutely. There is no realistic EMP threat from Terrorists or rogue nations. They simply do not possess sufficiently large missiles capable of carrying sufficiently powerful, sufficiently small warheads to pose a remotely credible threat. It takes all of the above to pose a credible EMP threat. Only Russia, China, France and mabey Britan possess that technology and the actual hardware on hand to deliver it. Not even India yet and their warhead and missile programs are decades and orders of magnitude in advance of Iran's.

It's like it's 1900 and people are worrying about the Kaiser having Lasers.

The Sun, on the other hand, has done far worse as recently as the 1850's. That is a serious and relaistic EMP threat.

zpo
12-26-10, 19:03
The Sun, on the other hand, has done far worse as recently as the 1850's. That is a serious and relaistic EMP threat.

April of this year it shot off a CME on Earths obital plane large enough to end our tech, we just weren't there.

And then there's this shit.
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/13dec_globaleruption/

1776 Patriot
12-26-10, 19:45
[QUOTE=Heavy Metal;857278]Absoutely. There is no realistic EMP threat from Terrorists or rogue nations. They simply do not possess sufficiently large missiles capable of carrying sufficiently powerful, sufficiently small warheads to pose a remotely credible threat. /QUOTE]

Really? I guess the EMP commission that was comprised of experts in EMP are wrong then when they say even a freakin modified scud missle fired off a ship offshore would do the job? Iran has the missles (this is documented fact)and are working to get a nuke as we speak if they don't already possess one. Please don't print something as being fact as people really need the facts to make up there own minds on the "realistic" threat. May I suggest you visit the site I listed above to get the facts by experts in the EMP field. As Glenn Beck says 'don't take my word on it', research it yourself and you'll see for yourself what i'm saying. Hope this helps......

Heavy Metal
12-26-10, 20:09
I have researched it and there are other experts with opinions to the contrary. I don't just swallow the first report someone throws out the door, I think for myself, use my critical thinking skills and use that damn science degree I paid all that money for.

500grains
12-26-10, 21:27
I worry more about economic collapse through redistributive wealth schemes (Obama Care, Cap & Trade/Tax, Climate Change, Etc...), over spending, Amnesty for Illegals, Funding for Illegals for free education (Oh yeah, been shot down) and border security, then I ever would for EMP.

Me too.

1. Over spending -> currency collapse -> nobody will sell goods for US dollars -> riots/looting

2. Over spending -> rampant inflation -> we cannot afford to buy goods -> riots/looting

3. Govt regulation/****sup -> domestic or worldwide financial collapse -> NO goods in the supply chain -> riots/looting

4. Over spending -> govt dumps entitlements as an emergency measure to avoid financial collapse -> riots/looting

5. Earthquake in Utah (local disaster only, there is probably an equivalent for your area) -> all roads and bridges disrupted (it only takes 4 to prevent travel in/out of Salt Lake City -> average person runs out of water immediately and runs out of food in 4 days -> riots/looting

6. Global pandemic on the scale of some plagues in Europe -> people refuse to go out of their homes due to fear -> no goods are put in the supply chain or delivered -> riots/looting

7. Prez gets overconfident or fearful/angry or whatever -> martial law imposed -> people think the commie takeover is upon us -> widespread rebellion plus riots / looting

8. Government of Mexico collapses -> financial system in Mexico collapses -> relief efforts cannot deliver food, medicine and power to 84 million Mexicans -> 20% of Mexicans try to bug out to the north -> border states try to set up an impenetrable line but cannot due to distances involved -> refugees who penetrate the line will do anything to get food/water/transport -> The taco apocalypse is upon us.

Clarkm
12-26-10, 21:49
A security clearance was needed for EMP design in 1983 -1988.
Anyone remember the cold war?
It could wipe out our TVs and we would be without porno, was the worry.

Now we would have no internet, and be without porno.


Given the gov spending, we thought Obama would trigger Jimmy Carter style inflation, but except for ammo and Gold, it has not happened.

The money has not gone to the money market, as the yield is low. It went back into the stock market, and has been hiding in cash and stocks for 2 years.

The thing to remember about economic collapse, is that much of it is driven by emotions. Crazy gov spending was a necessary, but not sufficient condition for inflation.

I still think it is coming... like the great pumpkin.

1776 Patriot
12-26-10, 22:04
I have researched it and there are other experts with opinions to the contrary. I don't just swallow the first report someone throws out the door, I think for myself, use my critical thinking skills and use that damn science degree I paid all that money for.

Ok, no problem. I'm not going to try to debate this anymore as I obviously I can't compete with someone with a science degree. :sarcastic: All jokes aside, your certainly intitled to believe your "experts", but i'll just believe my experts, you know the ones who were actually chosen for there expertise on EMP's and served on the actual EMP commission, as well as a little agency called the Defense Nuclear Agency and of course other little known agencys like the CIA, and the NIA. Have a great holiday!!

JeffWard
12-26-10, 22:07
Pre-computer controlled truck... check
Plenty of fresh well-water supply... and a hand pump... check
Plenty of fish and wild pigs... check
Year-round temps over 40 (Florida Gulf Coast)... check

I'm good... bring it on.

Jeff

zpo
12-26-10, 22:08
This thread needs more hugs.

Clarkm
12-26-10, 22:12
If only Einstein had a Mauser, he could have shot it out with the Wehrmacht, instead of skipping the country.

1776 Patriot
12-26-10, 22:17
Pre-computer controlled truck... check
Plenty of fresh well-water supply... and a hand pump... check
Plenty of fish and wild pigs... check
Year-round temps over 40 (Florida Gulf Coast)... check

I'm good... bring it on.

Jeff

I too am pretty well set. The only thing I need to address is finding the right hand pump for my deep well. So far the only ones I seem to always find are for 'shallow' wells. I guess i'll keep looking.....

Heavy Metal
12-26-10, 22:17
Ok, no problem. I'm not going to try to debate this anymore as I obviously I can't compete with someone with a science degree. :sarcastic: All jokes aside, your certainly intitled to believe your "experts", but i'll just believe my experts, you know the ones who were actually chosen for there expertise on EMP's and served on the actual EMP commission, as well as a little agency called the Defense Nuclear Agency and of course other little known agencys like the CIA, and the NIA. Have a great holiday!!

Yes, I am certainly entitled to my opinion. I also am entitled to make a point without resorting to an appeal to authority logical fallacy in the process. I also chose not to resort to making a work of fiction the centerpiece of my argument as well.

I suggest you seek out other points of view and try and keep a more open mind and not merely seek out those which confirm your pre-concieved notions and biases.

Here, let me help you:


Are the proposed nuclear EMP scenarios realistic?
What appears to be of particular concern to the EMP commission is the scepter of terrorist groups or so-called “rogue” nations carrying out such an attack. As outlined by Dr. Pry, one of the commissioners, before a 2005 Senate Subcommittee on Terrorism, Technology and Homeland Security, “[a] nuclear missile concealed in the hold of a freighter would give Iran, or terrorists, the capability to perform an EMP attack against the United States homeland, without developing an ICBM, and with some prospect of remaining anonymous. Iran’s Shahab-3 medium-range missile… is a mobile missile, and small enough to be transported in the hold of a freighter.” However, as mentioned above, such missiles have a payload capacity of approximately 1,000 kilograms corresponding to a crude U-based warhead of ~1 kiloton yield [22]—if, and when, the Iranians eventually develop nuclear weapons. Even the North Koreans, who are much further along in their weapons program, have had great difficulty reaching even a ~5 kiloton yield from their Pu-based devices in carefully orchestrated ground-tests, and their 2009 test was likely a fizzle.

Thus, it is not at all a simple matter, even for countries with considerable resources and focused decades-long effort, to build such weapons, let alone pair them to reliable delivery systems. As carefully argued by John Mueller in his new book, Atomic Obsession, it is virtually impossible for a terrorist cell to obtain the raw materials needed for a nuclear device and assemble it correctly themselves [Ref 22, p. 172–198]. Even a “crude” U-type device is not all that “crude” and requires the concerted effort of skilled scientists and engineers. Any weapon produced by a terrorist cell would likely be a one of a kind and would have to remain untested. For a terrorist group to then mate this weapon to a ballistic missile and successfully carry out an EMP strike beggars belief. As John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org has said, “It is just very difficult to imagine how terrorists are going to be able to lay hands on a nuclear-tipped missile, and launch it and reprogram it in such a way that it would be a high-altitude burst like that.”

Dr. Philip Coyle, former Pentagon director of operational test and evaluation, has stated that the EMP commission’s report appeared to “extrapolate calculations of extreme weapons effects as if they were a proven fact, and further to puff up rogue nations and terrorists with the capabilities of giants.” The 2009 Strategic Posture Commission puts it more delicately by saying that “the Commission is divided over how imminent a threat this is…”



http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1553/1

I suggest you read the entire article and go back and read part one.


Furthermore, a HEMP attack must use a relatively large warhead to be effective (perhaps on the order of one megaton), and new proliferators are unlikely to be able to construct such a device, much less make it small enough to be lofted to high altitude by a ballistic missile or space launcher.”


So much for your devistating low yield nuke hypothesis.

You keep on worrying about that Kaiser and his nasty Lasers:sarcastic:. I'll worry about the sun.

CarbonCycles
12-26-10, 22:27
The country will be just fine with an EMP attack. The computer systems used by the military for mission critical tasks have been RAD-hardened to withstand EMP attacks. Commercial example, computer systems experience "bit-flips" (random 0/1 flip caused by high-energy particles from space) with enough occurrence that the systems have become fairly robust to them. So, we will be able to respond; however, the social and economic collapse will definitely be a problem at first.

In all honesty, I seriously doubt the world will end if something like that happened - our forefathers managed w/out television, ipods, cellphones, etc, and Wallstreet's servers are probably thousands of miles offshore to be threatened by this.

CarbonCycles
12-26-10, 22:31
One more thing, IMO the most pressing issue with radioactive material will be the use of "dirty" bombs. Low-grade nuclear material is a lot more abundant and much more accessible than one may think. Example - nuclear isotopes used in hospitals and research labs.

It doesn't take much to strap an IED with some low-grade nuclear material to turn a few city blocks into a clean-up nightmare...ugh.

1776 Patriot
12-26-10, 23:11
I also chose not to resort to making a work of fiction the centerpiece of my argument as well.

I suggest you seek out other points of view and try and keep a more open mind and not merely seek out those which confirm your pre-concieved notions and biases.

Here, let me help you:



http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1553/1



So much for your devistating low yield nuke hypothesis.

You keep on worrying about that Kaiser and his nasty Lasers:sarcastic:. I'll worry about the sun.

Wow, because someone mentioned 'One Second After' now that's my 'centerpiece'?? Your serious?? :sarcastic: The facts speak for themselves. I laughed out loud when you linked that article by Yousaf Butt. He's a laughing stock in the EMP 'world' and his 'facts' have been discredited as nothing more then dribble. This man actually stated that the 1999 underground North Korean nuke test was a 'fizzle'. Well guess what? A low yield nuke underground test(as the Korean test was) would look EXACTLY like the 'fizzle' he says it was. IT'S DESIGNED that way. So you'll have to do better then some anti EMP 'hack' as some have called him over the years. Me, i'll believe those who actually have worked to bring the EMP issue to the forefront, the people mentioned above. Like I said, it's like any other issue. You can always find an "expert" who holds 'your' views. Me i'll take my dozen or so 'experts' who are actually trying bring this issue into the limelight to hopefully save a few lives. I won't be one of those 90%ers thank you very much......

Weaver
12-26-10, 23:51
One more thing, IMO the most pressing issue with radioactive material will be the use of "dirty" bombs. Low-grade nuclear material is a lot more abundant and much more accessible than one may think. Example - nuclear isotopes used in hospitals and research labs.

It doesn't take much to strap an IED with some low-grade nuclear material to turn a few city blocks into a clean-up nightmare...ugh.

Dirty Bombs are a panic weapon rather than a casualty-producing weapon. There is no real need to be concerned about the bombs themselves - but likely a need to be concerned about the panic following one, especially with the media and the DHS refusing to provide good public education about them.

First of all, it's pretty hard to get decent dispersal of rad waste using explosives.

Then there's the actual risk factor with available radioactive elements - there simply isn't enough stuff available to cause direct radiation sickness. The most one would see is a slight increase in long-term cancer rates.

Unfortunately, bullshit advice from DHS in the post-9/11 panicky days led the populace to believe that these were effective, scary weapons, so if someone does manage to set one off, I expect the panic reaction will be pretty bad. But there isn't any real reason to be personally concerned about the weapons themselves, any more than there is to really be concerned about someone EMPing the US.

Clarkm
12-26-10, 23:54
Box cutters -> lose 10% of freedom
Dirty bomb -> lose other 90%

a1fabweld
12-27-10, 00:34
If our transformers are made overseas, and there's a 3-10 year lead time in the event that we needed to replace them, maybe that would stimulate our own economy to actually make something in the US again? On the bright side, if there were an EMP attack, at least it would rid the country of the ghetto rap spewing from car stereos all day long! WOOHOO!

Heavy Metal
12-27-10, 01:10
Wow, because someone mentioned 'One Second After' now that's my 'centerpiece'?? Your serious?? :sarcastic: The facts speak for themselves. I laughed out loud when you linked that article by Yousaf Butt. He's a laughing stock in the EMP 'world' and his 'facts' have been discredited as nothing more then dribble. This man actually stated that the 1999 underground North Korean nuke test was a 'fizzle'. Well guess what? A low yield nuke underground test(as the Korean test was) would look EXACTLY like the 'fizzle' he says it was. IT'S DESIGNED that way. So you'll have to do better then some anti EMP 'hack' as some have called him over the years. Me, i'll believe those who actually have worked to bring the EMP issue to the forefront, the people mentioned above. Like I said, it's like any other issue. You can always find an "expert" who holds 'your' views. Me i'll take my dozen or so 'experts' who are actually trying bring this issue into the limelight to hopefully save a few lives. I won't be one of those 90%ers thank you very much......

Whatever. I'll take someone with real cred who understands what he is talking about like Yousaf insted of your typical expert:
http://www.balloonallsorts.co.uk/catalog/images/104138-chicken%20little%20shape.jpg

Notice Yousaf actually sources and cross-references his supporting information. The halmark of a true scientific professional and not some fear-mongering quack.

You like to make the appeal to authority argument, chew on his credentials:
Yousaf Butt is a staff scientist at the Center for Astrophysics at Harvard University, where he worked on NASA’s orbiting Chandra X-ray Observatory project from 1999–2004. He was a research fellow at the Union of Concerned Scientists’ Global Security Program from 2005–2007. He holds BSc degrees in physics and in mechanical engineering from MIT and a PhD in experimental nuclear astrophysics from Yale University.

1776 Patriot
12-28-10, 11:28
Ok, take a look at this Heavy, and get back to me. Like I said, one 'crock' don't make an 'expert'. The threat is REAL and personaly, I don't care if you don't want to except the fact that EMP's are a grave threat. Here's just a small portion from the link below, enjoy:


"A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication. For example, an adversary would not have to have long-range ballistic missiles to conduct an EMP attack against the United States. Such an attack could be launched from a freighter off the U.S. coast using a short- or medium-range missile to loft a nuclear warhead to high altitude. Terrorists sponsored by a rogue state could attempt to execute such an attack without revealing the identity of the perpetrators. Iran, the world's leading sponsor of international terrorism, has practiced launching a mobile ballistic missile from a vessel in the Caspian Sea. Iran has also tested high-altitude explosions of the Shahab-III, a test mode consistent with EMP attack, and described the tests as successful. Iranian military writings explicitly discuss a nuclear EMP attack that would gravely harm the United States. While the commission does not know the intention of Iran in conducting these activities, we are disturbed by the capability that emerges when we connect the dots."



http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=233077

I found a pic of your expert Yousaf, pretty much what I figured.......

Heavy Metal
12-28-10, 11:58
I have looked at exactly that. I have already addressed it several times in my previous postings.

The article by Dr. Butt addresses it as well. It takes three things to achieve this and all three are necessary:

1) A launcher with sufficient throw-weight to loft a large payload to an altitude of 40 or so miles.

2) A thermonulclear device of a minimum of one MEGATON (not kiloton) yield and likely much more . It is debatable whether a one Megaton device would be sufficiently large to create the desired effect, you need a HIGH yield device. A Hydrogen bomb and a heavy one at that.

3) The ability to make the device small enough to fit on number one.

Right now, Iran does not possess a sufficiently powerful missile to loft a one megaton device to that altitude, even fired straight-up. Not even close. India does not possess the ability to do that and their missile and bomb programs are decades in advance of Iran's. As I said earlier, only 4 other major powers besided the US posses that ability.

Iran has a launcher that can loft small payloads to high altitudes, they yet lack a low-yield fission bomb. Their first bombs will be large, unweildy devies that will be difficult to mount to a large plane, much less a missile. It will take considerable time to go from that to a hydrogen bomb and a powerful enough missile to launch it. and they will also have to develop a reliable warhead that can survive being launched off of a missile and reliably detonate at its target destination.

It took the United States 15 years and the better part of a Trillion dollars to achieve that during the heart of the cold war with the brightest minds and nearly unlimited resources. That's 15 years from Trinity to the Atlas Missile and a functional, launchable, hydrogen warhead. Iran hasn't even achieved Trinity yet some 65 years after the fact. It's launcher is a pea-shooter compared to a 1958 model Atlas, with a minor fraction of its throw weight. They are decades at best from the capability to launch a credible EMP threat.

1776 Patriot
12-28-10, 12:13
They are decades at best from the capability to launch a credible EMP threat.

I'll remember you said that after one hits and your still saying......But...But there decades away.....:sarcastic:



The sheeple are alive and well...................:rolleyes:

Thomas M-4
12-28-10, 12:14
That's NOT true. You should read the EMP commissions report. It states even a 1 megaton Nuke would do it, although you would get better results with a higher yield weapon, it's not needed to take down the grid for a L O N G time. Also, I guess you don't know about the high altitude 3 stage Shabab 3 missles Iran has been firing off ships for over 5 years now?? In fact, our friend Hugo Chavez has recently bought some from Iran. Feel any safer now? The Soviets have been testing EMP nukes for YEARS and know exactly what it takes and in fact even threatend us(2006) with an EMP attack. That info came from one of our own representitives (Roscoe Bartlet) who were at a conference overseas when threatend by 2 Russian military representitives. You can hear this yourself at: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/empact-radio Like I said, been doing LOTS of research and this info isn't just 'hearsay'. Hope this helps.

1 megaton nuke do you realize that Atomic war heads are measured in kilotons to get megaton you are going to need Hydrogen Bomb Immensely more complicated than uranium or plutonium bombs.
Explaining nuclear warhead yields http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon_yield

Our first H-bomb was so big it was housed in several buildings!
Ivy Mike http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivy_Mike

Clarkm
12-28-10, 12:24
If our transformers are made overseas, and there's a 3-10 year lead time in the event that we needed to replace them, maybe that would stimulate our own economy to actually make something in the US again? On the bright side, if there were an EMP attack, at least it would rid the country of the ghetto rap spewing from car stereos all day long! WOOHOO!

Having designed transformers for money for 28 years for medical, military, commercial, and private aircraft, I can say with some impunity, that transformers are being made in every major city in the world.

We may not make 100 tons of transformers in the Seattle area, like the do in China, but we have many small companies that make a few from the size of your pencil eraser to the size of your truck.

If there is an industry anywhere that can expand quickly it would be winding, dipping in varnish, and baking transformers.

1776 Patriot
12-28-10, 12:26
Our first H-bomb was so big it was housed in several buildings!
Ivy Mike http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivy_Mike

Ummm, yea that was 66 years ago. We have briefcase nukes now. And many are UNACCOUNTED for. Hmmm, wonder if you could modify one to fit in a high altitude missle 'Heavy' says Iran don't have but have been documented to exist and fired off a ship somewhere.........

Clarkm
12-28-10, 12:29
Having designed for EMP threat on military equipment, and having designed for lightning threat and load switching transients on other aircraft, I think I can say it is all the same stuff.

I took apart a mixer board for a rock band many years ago to find the failure.

If only the mixer had been designed for EMP, lightning, or transients, it would not have fried the IC at the output connector.

Heavy Metal
12-28-10, 12:32
I'll remember you said that after one hits and your still saying......But...But there decades away.....:sarcastic:



The sheeple are alive and well...................:rolleyes:

Says Chicken Little...

Heavy Metal
12-28-10, 12:33
Ummm, yea that was 66 years ago. We have briefcase nukes now. And many are UNACCOUNTED for. Hmmm, wonder if you could modify one to fit in a high altitude missle 'Heavy' says Iran don't have but have been documented to exist and fired off a ship somewhere.........

Sure MacGyver! All you need is some duct tape and Lego's! It's so easy!!

Thomas M-4
12-28-10, 12:36
Ummm, yea that was 66 years ago. We have briefcase nukes now. And many are UNACCOUNTED for. Hmmm, wonder if you could modify one to fit in a high altitude missle 'Heavy' says Iran don't have but have been documented to exist and fired off a ship somewhere.........

You are not distinguishing between nuclear and thermonuclear bombs.
Sutecase bombs are just measured by the fraction of 1 kiloton
very small yields designed to take out specific targets.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suitcase_nuke

Heavy Metal
12-28-10, 12:39
Ummm, yea that was 66 years ago. We have briefcase nukes now. And many are UNACCOUNTED for. Hmmm, wonder if you could modify one to fit in a high altitude missle 'Heavy' says Iran don't have but have been documented to exist and fired off a ship somewhere.........

Oh, if you could get it on a high-altitude missile, and you could get it to work, it would be a tiny firecracker. Those were tactical, low-yield fission bombs, not high-yield fusion bombs. They were desinged to take out an airfield or a dam, not a city.



I am begining to see I am trying to arguing reason and logic with someone who is re-gurgigtating talking points he heard on some survival fantasy wankfest board and not someone who is capable of independent, rational and objective analysis of the facts presented to him.

Simply put your frame of refernence is so skewed you cannot seperate noise from chaff or in the parlance of this forum, you are stuck at firmly at the stage of "you don't know what you don't know."

This forum is a place to discuss FACTS and your unsubstantiated opinion does not rise to that standard. M4 is about signal, not noise.

zpo
12-28-10, 12:39
If there is an industry anywhere that can expand quickly it would be winding, dipping in varnish, and baking transformers.

Can it expand quickly "enough" running on generators and fuel sourced from the military, with components and supplies flown in by the military, to keep a large die off from happening?

If the lighter reports are true, and only a fraction of our tech goes down, what are the first, second, third, and so on ripple effects?

Lots of people are gonna die from starvation when a fraction of the food trucks are still rolling, fueled by a fraction of gas stations, supplied by a fraction of refineries. A fraction of water plants are gonna still work, which means many people are gonna die of water borne illnesses because they don't know how to purify drinking water.
Sanitation will be nonexistent. It will all add up. It will be an event people will refer to like the plagues, the World Wars, and the Great Depression.
But there will be a lot of cheap, free even, land...

Heavy Metal
12-28-10, 12:41
You are not distinguishing between nuclear and thermonuclear bombs.
Sutecase bombs are just measured by the fraction of 1 kiloton
very small yields designed to take out specific targets.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suitcase_nuke

...but alll nukes are the same right?.....and you can make a re-entry vehicle out of duct tape and a trash can and fry evey I-Pod in Sheyboygan! Alex Jones told me so! It must be true!

Just you wait! You'll be laughing when the Ayatollah fixes your I-Tunes!

Thomas M-4
12-28-10, 12:43
Can it expand quickly "enough" running on generators and fuel sourced from the military, with components and supplies flown in by the military, to keep a large die off from happening?

If the lighter reports are true, and only a fraction of our tech goes down, what are the first, second, third, and so on ripple effects?

Lots of people are gonna die from starvation when a fraction of the food trucks are still rolling, fueled by a fraction of gas stations, supplied by a fraction of refineries. A fraction of water plants are gonna still work, which means many people are gonna die of water borne illnesses because they don't know how to purify drinking water.
Sanitation will be nonexistent. It will all add up. It will be an event people will refer to like the plagues, the World Wars, and the Great Depression.
But there will be a lot of cheap, free even, land...

Be more worried about a natural emp from the sun.

zpo
12-28-10, 12:44
Be more worried about a natural emp from the sun.

I already said that.

Heavy Metal
12-28-10, 12:45
So did I.

Thomas M-4
12-28-10, 12:53
Really guys none of these threats are new my parents and grandparents lived though it. It wouldn't matter one bit if they fired a missile from a ship the country that did it will no longer exist one ICBM from 1 boomer would destroy every thing its called MERV http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_independently_targetable_reentry_vehicle

Thomas M-4
12-28-10, 12:54
I already said that.

Yes you did I should have worded it better sorry.
Heavy Metal also said it.

Thomas M-4
12-28-10, 13:15
...but alll nukes are the same right?.....and you can make a re-entry vehicle out of duct tape and a trash can and fry evey I-Pod in Sheyboygan! Alex Jones told me so! It must be true!

Just you wait! You'll be laughing when the Ayatollah fixes your I-Tunes!

Heavy Metal
:laugh:

Pretty funny I think the new generation having never grown up with the cold war are chasing there tails with this not so new info.

crob1
12-31-10, 18:04
I too am pretty well set. The only thing I need to address is finding the right hand pump for my deep well. So far the only ones I seem to always find are for 'shallow' wells. I guess i'll keep looking.....

http://www.bisonpumps.com/

This is the company that has me intriqued.

Clarkm
01-27-11, 21:55
RAD-hardened to withstand EMP attacks.

This is nit picky, but the rad hard requirements are different from the EMP requirements on a program, but they go hand in hand.

One is like an x-ray and the other is more like your mother's mixer screwing up the reception on the rabbit ears on the TV.

Clarkm
01-27-11, 22:08
Lots of people are gonna die from starvation when a fraction of the food trucks are still rolling,

The first 200,000,000 Americans will be easy to kill, just by cutting off truck traffic.
Those that are in a large metropolis are the low hanging fruit.

Some of the rest of the Americans will be very hard to kill.

A big killer in ravaged countries is road blocks. It is highway robbery.
This was a big problem for medieval Europe. Travel was hard as each robber baron taxed everything you have. Without trade in manufactured goods, it is stone age living. Europe got out of this with the cannon knocking down castles and creating a central government.

The idea is to survive long enough for law and order to return.

500grains
01-28-11, 07:55
A big killer in ravaged countries is road blocks. It is highway robbery.
This was a big problem for medieval Europe. Travel was hard as each robber baron taxed everything you have. Without trade in manufactured goods, it is stone age living. Europe got out of this with the cannon knocking down castles and creating a central government.


Actually I thought it was the flintlock blunderbuss with foldable bayonet carried on the mail coach that put the highway robbers substantially out of business. Later it was the Webley revolver.



The idea is to survive long enough for law and order to return.

My plan is to live even longer than that.

http://www.craftsmanshipmuseum.com/images/Rin33%20Flintlock%20Blunderbuss%20W%20Bayonet%20Percussion%20Blunderbuss.jpg

500grains
01-28-11, 08:11
All joking aside, if SHTF then roadblocks will make road travel a death sentence for those without an APC or similar. The rest of us will end up hunting the road blockers. Hone your long distance shooting skills.

sgtjosh
05-13-11, 19:20
Are the effects of an EMP on electronics permanent? Will devices return to a functioning state at a later time or after some sort of repair. Please pardon my ignorance, but I just don't know.

HES
05-13-11, 20:39
Are the effects of an EMP on electronics permanent? Will devices return to a functioning state at a later time or after some sort of repair. Please pardon my ignorance, but I just don't know.
The consensus is, and evidence points to, that unless the electronic component is protected from the EMP, it will pretty much be toast and will have to be replaced. For example, a generic Casio G-Shock watch will become permanently useless. Transformers will have to be replaced with entirely new components. This is what makes an EMP so devastating. The infrastructure is there, but it is useless and their is no way to create any replacement components.

docsherm
05-13-11, 23:51
This is a very good thread. Everyone has some valid points. There is one thing that is missing, Understanding. A terrorist threat is the most feasible scenario, GOV supported or not. These bugger eating morons (Terrorists) have nothing and make due. They used a commercial airliner as a weapon. What is to stop them from doing it again? You will say new security measures? Right. They do not need an ICBM to make a high Altitude EMP; a 474 will work as that platform.

As for the aftermath; all of the recovery would not take that long under normal conditions. It is difficult to get power companies out and about when you have to get water to everyone, with limited recourses. From a medical point of view; there will need to be triage the priorities of work. Water, food, shelter, medical, security…..and then power. Even if they were able to fix everything in a few weeks they will have to focus on the more important priorities. While this is happening more stuff will go wrong and make it more difficult. Then the lover level items will keep getting pushed down on the list. It will be a snowball effect and it will keep going downhill. Remember that about 10% of the US dopes everything for the other 90%. There will only be enough people working to fix everything to take care of a few things at a time.

Reagans Rascals
05-13-11, 23:55
leave the batteries out of your optics on your weapons when in the case and not being used, if the shtf and there is such an event, you're optics will still function

it only affects powered electronics, therefore.. anything unplugged or without batteries will be unaffected.

Heavy Metal
05-14-11, 00:27
They do not need an ICBM to make a high Altitude EMP; a 474 will work as that platform.

Yes, you absolutely do need an ICBM.

It would not come close to working with an airliner. You have to get above 40km minimum to generate the compton effect. Anything less is just an air burst with localized effects.

sgtjosh
05-14-11, 00:40
The consensus is, and evidence points to, that unless the electronic component is protected from the EMP, it will pretty much be toast and will have to be replaced. For example, a generic Casio G-Shock watch will become permanently useless. Transformers will have to be replaced with entirely new components. This is what makes an EMP so devastating. The infrastructure is there, but it is useless and their is no way to create any replacement components.

Will an EMP disable equipment that is powered down?

docsherm
05-14-11, 01:31
leave the batteries out of your optics on your weapons when in the case and not being used, if the shtf and there is such an event, you're optics will still function

it only affects powered electronics, therefore.. anything unplugged or without batteries will be unaffected.

Shit-can all of your Aimpoint T1s and get a good AGOG....Problem solved. :sarcastic:

I have a TA33HG on my true SAHTF weapon. No Batteries and no problems from it.

docsherm
05-14-11, 01:35
Yes, you absolutely do need an ICBM.

It would not come close to working with an airliner. You have to get above 40km minimum to generate the compton effect. Anything less is just an air burst with localized effects.

One will not work for the entire USA…..I did not say that. Think about something crazy…a multi prong coordinated attack with several 747s in different areas of the USA. I know it is crazy and something like that could never happen, but what if. :blink:

docsherm
05-14-11, 01:47
Will an EMP disable equipment that is powered down?


Simple electronics will work once you find a power source to run them; flashlights, clocks, ignitions and so forth. Anything that has complex electronic systems is gone. That goes for stuff with power and stuff without power connected. Unless an item is shielded and has the power source removed it will be fried. If in fact you remove your batteries from you optics and then find some after an EMP, which have not been fried from the pulse, your optic will not work. And for those that think that shielding your gear is as simple as putting it in a metal box and hoping for the best are going to be disappointed. You need a sealed container and a ton of discharge wires to ensure that your stuff will survive.

NC_DAVE
05-14-11, 07:40
One will not work for the entire USA…..I did not say that. Think about something crazy…a multi prong coordinated attack with several 747s in different areas of the USA. I know it is crazy and something like that could never happen, but what if. :blink:
Sounds unlikely but so did Al-Qaeda taking plans down on US soil before 9-11. Not to mention what about all the container Al-Qaeda got on to air planes only a few months ago. Al-Qaeda consider all those missons a victory for two reason. The first was to strain the air line companys by enacting new safety measures that would cost more man hours and money. The second was to prove that they could do it. I am not sure though if those planes could reach the proper altitude to gain a good EMP strike but WHAT IF.
I also saw someone else stated that they would due fine without TV and such. But if you think the general public would you are sadly mistake. Not only that, but how many people rely on the federal government now for everything. What do think those people are going to do?

zpo
05-14-11, 07:53
leave the batteries out of your optics on your weapons when in the case and not being used, if the shtf and there is such an event, you're optics will still function

it only affects powered electronics, therefore.. anything unplugged or without batteries will be unaffected.

EMP doesn't care if its turned on or off, it only needs a conductive path.
While isolating equipment by unplugging power cords and antennas can help, if there is around 16 inches or more of wire in or part of the device, voltage can spike to destructive levels.
Tests have shown that equipment can be naturally shielding, cars and trucks are affected differently depending on construction and location of electronics.
As far as optics, I remember an Aimpoint rep emailed someone that while they haven't tested their optics for EMP, due to its design, it should be shielded. It may be this thread, I don't remember what all has been covered so far.

zpo
05-14-11, 07:57
I also saw someone else stated that they would due fine without TV and such. But if you think the general public would you are sadly mistake. Not only that, but how many people rely on the federal government now for everything. What do think those people are going to do?
They haven't considered were water and food are going to come from without power and transport.

Just_Plain_T.
05-14-11, 08:23
Unless an item is shielded and has the power source removed it will be fried. If in fact you remove your batteries from you optics and then find some after an EMP, which have not been fried from the pulse, your optic will not work. And for those that think that shielding your gear is as simple as putting it in a metal box and hoping for the best are going to be disappointed. You need a sealed container and a ton of discharge wires to ensure that your stuff will survive.

It's not that simple. There are other factors: amount of conductive material (lengthwise) is a big one.

And while a metal box by itself isn't good, a metal box with insulating material on the inside is. Faraday cage.

Also something to consider is, an EMP's effect is not absolute: You will not have the exact result on each and every single <item X>, because any number of factors (variations of shielding, strength of current generated by the EMP at that location, plugged or unplugged to the power grid, etc) can all change the outcome. Some vehicles will survive. Others will die. Many small handheld devices will keep on functioning because they won't have enough conductive material to generate the voltage that will kill it. I'm reasonably sure that more than a few cell phones will survive an EMP....HOWEVER, the cell towers won't, rendering them fairly useless.

There was a study on this a ways back, here's a link to the pdf. (http://empcommission.org/docs/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf) Covers EMP a lot better than anything I've seen. Way too many people get their ideas of what an EMP can do based on what they see in Hollywood.

NC_DAVE
05-14-11, 09:15
They haven't considered were water and food are going to come from without power and transport.
That is why this would be so bad. There would be no food in every store in a matter of a day or two. Also how many people need medication monthly just to live, not counting the spread of more disease due to malnutrition and dehydration. Not to mention theft, murder, looting, rioting would be wide spread.

usmcvet
05-14-11, 10:19
I just made tinfoil hats for my family after reading most of this thread! It sounds like the sun is the most serious threat. Does this strike any of you as a little Y2Kish?

Heavy Metal
05-14-11, 10:48
One will not work for the entire USA…..I did not say that. Think about something crazy…a multi prong coordinated attack with several 747s in different areas of the USA. I know it is crazy and something like that could never happen, but what if. :blink:

It doesn't matter, it can't fly high enough to produce anything more than an airburst would. The effects would be physical. It just doesn't work the way you think it does. No Compton effect and it is neutered. You are extrapolating based on a lack of understanding of the process. Is simply does not scale that way.

Please do some research. There are links in this thread on previous pages.

zpo
05-14-11, 10:55
I just made tinfoil hats for my family after reading most of this thread! It sounds like the sun is the most serious threat. Does this strike any of you as a little Y2Kish?


Y2K wasn't ever going to happen. The Sun has several times and will continue. It's like a rock hitting, its not if, its when.

docsherm
05-14-11, 11:15
It doesn't matter, it can't fly high enough to produce anything more than an airburst would. The effects would be physical. It just doesn't work the way you think it does. No Compton effect and it is neutered. You are extrapolating based on a lack of understanding of the process. Is simply does not scale that way.

Please do some research. There are links in this thread on previous pages.



If you read what I wrote you would have understood what I was talking about. I know that the Max AGL of a Boeing 747-400 is rated at 45,100 feet. That is the Max that is is rated at for safety reasons. The Troposphere extends to between 9 km (30,000 ft) at the poles and 17 km (56,000 ft) at the equator. To get a perfect EMP out of a nuke it would need to be in the Stratosphere, which starts at about 51 km (32 mi; 170,000 ft). So one EMP would not be able to disable the entire USA. That is why I said; “a multi prong coordinated attack with several 747s in different areas of the USA”. Each would cover a smaller area but with several it would blanket the USA.

Yes I DO know how it works because I have an EW guy that works for me and that is his job. I am not making this up. People who are way too smart for their own good have already thought about all of this stuff and covered just about every situation all of us could come up with. There are people in the GOV and MIL that this is all they do.

docsherm
05-14-11, 11:40
It's not that simple. There are other factors: amount of conductive material (lengthwise) is a big one.

And while a metal box by itself isn't good, a metal box with insulating material on the inside is. Faraday cage.

Also something to consider is, an EMP's effect is not absolute: You will not have the exact result on each and every single <item X>, because any number of factors (variations of shielding, strength of current generated by the EMP at that location, plugged or unplugged to the power grid, etc) can all change the outcome. Some vehicles will survive. Others will die. Many small handheld devices will keep on functioning because they won't have enough conductive material to generate the voltage that will kill it. I'm reasonably sure that more than a few cell phones will survive an EMP....HOWEVER, the cell towers won't, rendering them fairly useless.

There was a study on this a ways back, here's a link to the pdf. (http://empcommission.org/docs/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf) Covers EMP a lot better than anything I've seen. Way too many people get their ideas of what an EMP can do based on what they see in Hollywood.



The Faraday Cage was not designed to prevent/stop an EMP. It main purpose is to act as a surge protector. That is why most items that use this basic technology will be protected from lightning strikes. A good example would be transformers. Most will survive a anything but a direct struck of lighting (you know that that is 1.21 gigawatts :sarcastic: ) For a Faraday Cage to be modified to work against an EMP it will have to be huge. The little boxes that they tell you how to build on the internet to protect your laptops will not work. You can build one but it is not something that you are going to build in your garage over the weekend.

You are 100% correct that not all electronics will be effected the same. There is no way to tell; your car might turn on and your simple flashlight might not ever work again. But on the average the more complex the system the worse it will be damaged.

Heavy Metal
05-14-11, 12:34
If you read what I wrote you would have understood what I was talking about. I know that the Max AGL of a Boeing 747-400 is rated at 45,100 feet. That is the Max that is is rated at for safety reasons. The Troposphere extends to between 9 km (30,000 ft) at the poles and 17 km (56,000 ft) at the equator. To get a perfect EMP out of a nuke it would need to be in the Stratosphere, which starts at about 51 km (32 mi; 170,000 ft). So one EMP would not be able to disable the entire USA. That is why I said; “a multi prong coordinated attack with several 747s in different areas of the USA”. Each would cover a smaller area but with several it would blanket the USA.

Yes I DO know how it works because I have an EW guy that works for me and that is his job. I am not making this up. People who are way too smart for their own good have already thought about all of this stuff and covered just about every situation all of us could come up with. There are people in the GOV and MIL that this is all they do.

Then they should understand this:


As a nuclear EMP device is exploded at an altitude of between 40–400kilometers, the downward directed gamma rays collide with electrons in air molecules of the thin upper atmosphere transferring their energy to the electrons via the Compton process. These electrons are ejected from their parent molecules at high energies and, once liberated, collide with other electrons creating a cascade of roughly 30,000 electrons for each original gamma ray [4]. The electrons spiral in the magnetic field of the earth emitting coherent synchrotron radiation. Since this radiation, and the initial excitation gamma-rays, both travel at the speed of light, the EMP radiation field “piles-up” in an analogous manner to a “sonic-boom”: the electromagnetic radiation formed at different distances from the explosion arrives virtually simultaneously to an observer on the ground.the source region of the pulse is located, primarily, in an approximately 10-kilometer-thick region of the atmosphere roughly between 25 and 35 kilometers altitude: well above a 35 kilometers, the density is too low for much production of Compton scattered electrons and much below 25 kilometers, most of the prompt gammas are absorbed. Outside this sweet band, it won't work worth a crap, peroid.

Might as well just go for the physical effects and detonate it a bit lower.

And 45K feet in a 747 gives you a footprint 1/9th what a detonation at the minimum altitude to produce the Compton effect would require. Not that it matters because you can't get the chain-reaction cascade effect below that to generate the killer EMP due to absorbtion in the thicker atmosphere. Simply put, it gets snuffed-out in the denser atmosphere before it can propogate. Nine time the 747's aren't going to come remotely close to replacing the effect of a proper high-altitude detonation of a multi-megaton Teller-Ulam device.

It is analagous to a LEL and a UEL for a combustable gas, go outside those limits and the mixture either provides too much or too little O2 to propogate a wavefront of deflagration.

Again, physically and mathematically, what you propose simply won't work. It doesn't scale the way you think and it is easy to demonstrate why it wont work. Nine women can't make one baby in one month.

Thomas M-4
05-14-11, 15:01
Heavy Metal is right again it doesn't work the way some of you think.
You do know that we have developed nuclear air to air missiles
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIM-26_Falcon
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIR-2_Genie
(18,500 ft) before detonating the 1.7 kt warhead
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Plumbbob_John_Nuclear_Test.jpg


And it has been stated before YOU NEED A HIGH YIELD device 1 MT or larger. It took the US & USSR years to develop a Hydrogen Bomb small enough to even fit on a ICBM. When NK or Iran finally detonates a Hydrogen Bomb which they are many,many yrs from then I could be concerned but any country stupid enough to do it will be completely and unutterably wiped off the face of the earth.

docsherm
05-14-11, 22:30
So what you both are saying is that you do not get any EMP from anything other than an extremely high altitude burst. Right? So a ground burst will not have any EMP effect?
That is what you are saying. I do know what I am talking about. Maybe I need to add more numbers for you to comprehend. OK, 100 474 detonate nukes at 55,000 feet in a grid pattern over the USA. What kind of EMP effect to you think that would cause using you logic?

All I am saying is that it can be done by something other than an ICBM and we would be stupid to think completely discount a bunch of buggers.

Heavy Metal
05-14-11, 22:58
So what you both are saying is that you do not get any EMP from anything other than an extremely high altitude burst. Right? So a ground burst will not have any EMP effect?

In a detonation in the lower atmosphere, the EMP radius is just a bit larger than the blast radius. Remember how earlier I explained that in the denser lower atmosphere you would not get the cascade effect you need for a massive EMP? The whole sweet spot talk? The denser lower atmosphere absorbs the Gamma Ray portion of the blast. It is the Gammas that cause the Compton effect. No Gamma's, no Compton effect.


Maybe I need to add more numbers for you to comprehend. OK, 100 474 detonate nukes at 55,000 feet in a grid pattern over the USA. What kind of EMP effect to you think that would cause using you logic?

You magically get 100 nukes airborne over the CONUS and you are:

a.) Going to detonate them in a iffy bond-villianish scheme at 55,000 feet to produce EMP?

b.) Fly them at 10,000ft over the 100 largest cities in America and flatten them to dust?

Dude, seriously, when you find yourself in a hole, stop digging. This is simply an absurd scenario. It is like having a rifle that can shoot at a loose rock over a bad guys's head and hope the improable chance the rock falls and strikes him happens vs simply shooting the bad guy in the head.

Just walk away.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3295/2722783347_2afd118f15.jpg

Thomas M-4
05-14-11, 23:32
So what you both are saying is that you do not get any EMP from anything other than an extremely high altitude burst. Right? So a ground burst will not have any EMP effect?
That is what you are saying. I do know what I am talking about. Maybe I need to add more numbers for you to comprehend. OK, 100 474 detonate nukes at 55,000 feet in a grid pattern over the USA. What kind of EMP effect to you think that would cause using you logic?

All I am saying is that it can be done by something other than an ICBM and we would be stupid to think completely discount a bunch of buggers.

If you were going to detonate 100 nukes you would cause far more damage by having them ground burst or near ground bursts using the blast effect from them. And have them dispersed across the major population centers. It would take far less than 100 to send conus into the 3rd world status if they were detonated in major cities across the conus .
Those nuclear tipped AA missiles are short range weapons that were meant to be used over the conus to stop Russian bombers on there final bombing run. I have seen EMP designs that were not nuclear and used a coil wrapped with capacitors wrapped around a conventional bomb but the reported effects were very small just a couple KM radius effect that didn't need to be detonated at high altitude.

docsherm
05-15-11, 03:32
Yet again, you are missing the point.

POINT: Do not think that a terrorist can’t affect the USA with an EMP because they do not have an ICMB.

Sometimes you have to go to the extreme (100 nukes) go get people’s attention and have them lesion to what you are saying and to get them off of a point of view that they are emotional invested in for some reason. The likelihood of it happening is very slim…….the likelihood of them flying an airplane into the WTC is just as unlikely. Just think about it. If you are as smart as you seem to be I am sure you too can come up with a viable option for this to affect the USA. Think about it and you might just rethink your position.

Thomas M-4
Yes I have seen EMP designs that are not nukes. Just a huge amount of electricity that has the same effect as a nuke. I am not sure how they are made or what kind of distance them have, but I am sure that the plans are on the internet. :sad:

That could possibly be an even bigger threat because of the fact that you don’t need a nuke (they are not hard to get but you can’t get all of the part at Wal-Mart)

Heavy Metal
05-15-11, 12:35
Thomas M-4
Yes I have seen EMP designs that are not nukes. Just a huge amount of electricity that has the same effect as a nuke. I am not sure how they are made or what kind of distance them have, but I am sure that the plans are on the internet.

That could possibly be an even bigger threat because of the fact that you don’t need a nuke (they are not hard to get but you can’t get all of the part at Wal-Mart)

The area of effect would be extremely limited, think like city blocks.

E=MC^2. This means you are converting matter to energy. It is why a nuke does what it does. A 500lb EMP bomb is to a Nuke EMP what he physical effects of 500lbs of TNT are to the physical effects of a 500lb nuclear warhead. A drop in the bucket, a mosquito bite. You are comparing chemical energy to the conversion of matter to energy. There simply is no comparison.

Thomas M-4
05-15-11, 16:56
The area of effect would be extremely limited, think like city blocks.

E=MC^2. This means you are converting matter to energy. It is why a nuke does what it does. A 500lb EMP bomb is to a Nuke EMP what he physical effects of 500lbs of TNT are to the physical effects of a 500lb nuclear warhead. A drop in the bucket, a mosquito bite. You are comparing chemical energy to the conversion of matter to energy. There simply is no comparison.

Yes you are right I thought that I said the area would only be a couple of kilometers at best. Its not an area weapon its meant for a specific target.
And I don't worry about a terrorist making one its fairly sophisticated compared to a car bomb and lately they cant get that right.

docsherm
05-16-11, 04:14
That makes sense. I read somewhere some time ago about partial accelerators and the electromagnetic field that they create. I have never read anything about any type of EMP coming from these things……as I am not a physicist, or even close. :jester: Just trying to figure stuff out that might be important is the future.

Redmanfms
06-02-11, 13:30
This thread is the perfect case study in why one should take a thread start from a relatively new member who devotes nearly all his posts to one subject and then disappears from the board with a grain of salt. 1776 Patriot appears to be infected with the panic bug, and panic, like misery, loves company. This is why loony tune conspiracy theorists are so intent on making everyone else believe what they do. People like Patriot can be the doom of a survival topic discussion board.

Is HEMP a threat? Sure. The problem is that there is little credible information available on the actual impact of such an event. As some have pointed out, small scale testing produces in no way what one can consider to be consistent repeatable results. There have been no large scale tests.

Also, the technological capability to produce a weapon of sufficient yield and the delivery system to launch it are well beyond the tinkerings of Mahmoud's science types. Heavy's analogy of people at the dawn of the 20th Century fretting over a Kaiser armed with lasers is entirely apt.

As has also been pointed out, the Sun is a powerful SOB. A coronal mass ejection could wreak some serious havoc with electronics. Though, like the effects of HEMP, we really don't know the extent of the impact, because the last time it happened the only large electrical devices we had was the telegraph system. The Carrington event didn't even permanently disable telegraphs, just caused phantom signals and signal interruption.

Speculation about HEMP/CME-related topics reminds me of the kind of hysteria surrounding nuclear war in the 1950s and 60s. Much of the fear was based on demonstrable hogwash, but it had an enormous impact on the way people thought and behaved, particularly with regard to survival planning and preparation. But at least global nuclear war was a (at the time) a far more likely event than some wackjob Mohammedan gaining sufficient technical expertise and manufacturing capability to build and deliver a high-altitude burst, high-yield thermonuclear weapon.



And really, planning your preps on Forstchen's book is like planning to survive the nuclear apocalypse by watching Panic in the Year Zero. He's an author. Sure he researched the subject to make the story seem more credible and interesting, but he is still SELLING a work of fiction!

1776 Patriot
06-11-11, 22:25
This thread is the perfect case study in why one should take a thread start from a relatively new member who devotes nearly all his posts to one subject and then disappears from the board with a grain of salt. 1776 Patriot appears to be infected with the panic bug, and panic, like misery, loves company. This is why loony tune conspiracy theorists are so intent on making everyone else believe what they do. People like Patriot can be the doom of a survival topic discussion board.

As usual, the board idiot has to speak. If you really think EMP's are a " loony tune conspiracy" your even more stupid then your post. Really, get an education and come back and visit....:jester:



The Carrington event didn't even permanently disable telegraphs, just caused phantom signals and signal interruption.

Case in point. Boy you really are a brite one!



[/QUOTE]Speculation about HEMP/CME-related topics reminds me of the kind of hysteria surrounding nuclear war in the 1950s and 60s. Much of the fear was based on demonstrable hogwash, but it had an enormous impact on the way people thought and behaved, particularly with regard to survival planning and preparation. But at least global nuclear war was a (at the time) a far more likely event than some wackjob Mohammedan gaining sufficient technical expertise and manufacturing capability to build and deliver a high-altitude burst, high-yield thermonuclear weapon.[/QUOTE]

Yet the Iranians, who are now building MISSLE BASES on our good friend HUGO CHAVEZ northern islands seem to think it's worthwhile. Perhaps your one of the 'experts' who say they are years away from a nuke? There not building them just to lob scuds our way genius.

[/QUOTE]And really, planning your preps on Forstchen's book is like planning to survive the nuclear apocalypse by watching Panic in the Year Zero. He's an author. Sure he researched the subject to make the story seem more credible and interesting, but he is still SELLING a work of fiction![/QUOTE]

Ok, that's it. You quit in the 8th grade didn't ya!!?? :sarcastic:

usmcvet
06-12-11, 08:01
When you lace your posts with personal insults it takes away all of your credibility. It may have worked in Jr. High but it does not work here.


As usual, the board idiot has to speak. If you really think EMP's are a " loony tune conspiracy" your even more stupid then your post. Really, get an education and come back and visit....:jester:




Case in point. Boy you really are a brite one!



Speculation about HEMP/CME-related topics reminds me of the kind of hysteria surrounding nuclear war in the 1950s and 60s. Much of the fear was based on demonstrable hogwash, but it had an enormous impact on the way people thought and behaved, particularly with regard to survival planning and preparation. But at least global nuclear war was a (at the time) a far more likely event than some wackjob Mohammedan gaining sufficient technical expertise and manufacturing capability to build and deliver a high-altitude burst, high-yield thermonuclear weapon.[/QUOTE]

Yet the Iranians, who are now building MISSLE BASES on our good friend HUGO CHAVEZ northern islands seem to think it's worthwhile. Perhaps your one of the 'experts' who say they are years away from a nuke? There not building them just to lob scuds our way genius.

[/QUOTE]And really, planning your preps on Forstchen's book is like planning to survive the nuclear apocalypse by watching Panic in the Year Zero. He's an author. Sure he researched the subject to make the story seem more credible and interesting, but he is still SELLING a work of fiction![/QUOTE]

Ok, that's it. You quit in the 8th grade didn't ya!!?? :sarcastic:[/QUOTE]

Jack-O
06-12-11, 08:45
As usual, the board idiot has to speak. If you really think EMP's are a " loony tune conspiracy" your even more stupid then your post. Really, get an education and come back and visit....:jester:




Case in point. Boy you really are a brite one!



Speculation about HEMP/CME-related topics reminds me of the kind of hysteria surrounding nuclear war in the 1950s and 60s. Much of the fear was based on demonstrable hogwash, but it had an enormous impact on the way people thought and behaved, particularly with regard to survival planning and preparation. But at least global nuclear war was a (at the time) a far more likely event than some wackjob Mohammedan gaining sufficient technical expertise and manufacturing capability to build and deliver a high-altitude burst, high-yield thermonuclear weapon.

Yet the Iranians, who are now building MISSLE BASES on our good friend HUGO CHAVEZ northern islands seem to think it's worthwhile. Perhaps your one of the 'experts' who say they are years away from a nuke? There not building them just to lob scuds our way genius.

And really, planning your preps on Forstchen's book is like planning to survive the nuclear apocalypse by watching Panic in the Year Zero. He's an author. Sure he researched the subject to make the story seem more credible and interesting, but he is still SELLING a work of fiction!

Ok, that's it. You quit in the 8th grade didn't ya!!?? :sarcastic:


Bad form. Lacks any logic or even arguement to refute the post you quoted.

post fail

Dave L.
06-12-11, 10:01
Dear 1776 Patriot,

Please take your ball and go home.

mjp
06-14-11, 05:44
patriot you are a fool. until you learn to spell correctly everything you could possibly say is pointless. actually calling someone "sheeple" takes away even more from you. you are a fail.

Irish
06-14-11, 10:55
patriot you are a fool. until you learn to spell correctly everything you could possibly say is pointless. actually calling someone "sheeple" takes away even more from you. you are a fail.

Everybody should take a step back and ease up on the personal attacks. Either address the thread topic, another person's "argument" or move on to something else.

mjp - I would suggest taking a look at your use of capitalization, punctuation and grammer before you decide to tell someone "you are a fail" which has no place in the English language. One of the best ways to help someone is through setting a good example yourself.

Moose-Knuckle
06-14-11, 21:48
I did not read over the past years posts, with that said. . .

EMPs really don’t concern me all that much as it would shut down our pathetic power grid. It won’t kill anyone unless they are on life support or have a pace maker etc. If we're hit in the sweet spot over KS we would basically be thrown back to the late 1800's. Humans have lived the majority of their time on this planet without Nikola Tesla's inventions and they CAN live after they have been nullified. Looking at Katrina's aftermath a lot of "people" who were avanced in years and or medical complications expired once the AC went off. People can adapt but their would be a weeding out for certain.

simple1
06-15-11, 09:38
I did not read over the past years posts, with that said. . .

EMPs really don’t concern me all that much as it would shut down our pathetic power grid. It won’t kill anyone unless they are on life support or have a pace maker etc. If we're hit in the sweet spot over KS we would basically be thrown back to the late 1800's. Humans have lived the majority of their time on this planet without Nikola Tesla's inventions and they CAN live after they have been nullified. Looking at Katrina's aftermath a lot of "people" who were avanced in years and or medical complications expired once the AC went off. People can adapt but their would be a weeding out for certain.

I do not think EMP is a big threat, but I think you severely underestimate the impact of a long term, large scale, grid down situation.

How many people are totally dependent on power for safe water and food? 80+% of the country at least? In 30-45 days I think you'd already have a mass die/kill off. In the 1800s we had an infrastruture that ran on 1800s technology, today we do not.

Another thought on an EMP - people think it would take days before things got really bad. In all but the more rural areas I think it would only be hours before trouble started. How long would it take for the lesser civilized to realize that there were no cars, no power, and no radios? And then make the connection that that means no cops? They might not know WHY, but they would know pretty quickly there was a window of opportunity.

Moose-Knuckle
06-15-11, 16:57
I do not think EMP is a big threat, but I think you severely underestimate the impact of a long term, large scale, grid down situation.

Again, an EMP is not going to effect the human body directly and those who are prepared can live with out the modern amenities as done for thousand of years.


How many people are totally dependent on power for safe water and food? 80+% of the country at least? In 30-45 days I think you'd already have a mass die/kill off. In the 1800s we had an infrastruture that ran on 1800s technology, today we do not.

Agreed.


Another thought on an EMP - people think it would take days before things got really bad. In all but the more rural areas I think it would only be hours before trouble started. How long would it take for the lesser civilized to realize that there were no cars, no power, and no radios? And then make the connection that that means no cops? They might not know WHY, but they would know pretty quickly there was a window of opportunity.

IMHO I feel that the "troubles" would begin almost instantaneously.

Most people when they think of an EMP strike they think of a preemptive EMP detonation right before a nuclear attack that is going to affect a specific region on the globe such as CONUS for example. When I think of an EMP event I’m thinking on a global scale. A coronal mass ejection from our sun comes to mind.

BrigandTwoFour
06-15-11, 22:31
I will preface this by saying that, for better or worse, this topic is actually "in my lane" for once.

EMP threats are real, but as others have said, they are only within the realm of possibility for a few countries who have the means to actually employ them. In order to cover the entire CONUS, it takes more than a single nuclear weapon detonated at high altitude (some of you have a very distorted view of the actual range of effects on a nuclear weapon). It would take several, and the effects diminish with distance. AND, there are limitations on the size of a warhead that can be stuffed on top of a missile. Some of the explosions ya'll are talking about are quite impressive, but a bomb of that size simply isn't practical for a modern ICBM.

Many of our country's vital systems are, in fact, protected from EMP- and a lot of that had to do with the cold war.

Now, when it comes to the sun. Sure, it's a possibility that a CME could cause a disturbance. But the truth is that the sun already puts out several large EM blasts a year, our satellites deal with them all the time and recover (and they take a far worse beating than anything on the ground).

Honestly, I'm more worried about our crumbling infrastructure failing on it's own. I remember about five years back when a black out struck most of the east coast, and the news had no qualms reporting that it was caused when a single power station near turkey point in South Florida had failed (talk about bad OPSEC).

I agree with others that the real danger is not going to be from another country or terrorist. It's going to be the civil unrest that comes with interruption of basic services. Japan we are not.

Redmanfms
06-16-11, 04:26
Edited. Best not to feed the bridge-dwellers.

Moose-Knuckle
06-16-11, 18:34
I will preface this by saying that, for better or worse, this topic is actually "in my lane" for once.

Thank you for your post, it was most informative.



In order to cover the entire CONUS, it takes more than a single nuclear weapon detonated at high altitude (some of you have a very distorted view of the actual range of effects on a nuclear weapon). It would take several, and the effects diminish with distance.

Not sure if this comment was directed at my previous post or some others earlier in this thread, but it brings up a question for me. Strictly speaking of an EMP "attack" and not a thermal nuclear detonation, I have read/heard that the Soviets had targeted KS for an EMP strike due to it's location in the dead center of CONUS? So, if this is fact can a single EMP event (man made) effect the entirety of CONUS or would that entail multiple EMP strikes in various locations?


Many of our country's vital systems are, in fact, protected from EMP- and a lot of that had to do with the cold war.

I do not share your confidence in that our government is prepared for such an event. Yes, the Cold War taught us much but look at the troubles POTUS had trying to execute continuity of government from Air Force One on 9/11. He had no comms. I HOPE now the latest E-4Bs circumvent the sins of the past.


Now, when it comes to the sun. Sure, it's a possibility that a CME could cause a disturbance. But the truth is that the sun already puts out several large EM blasts a year, our satellites deal with them all the time and recover (and they take a far worse beating than anything on the ground).

NASA has several good read ups on projected solar events coming in the next several years. We're do for a CME according to some who interpret the data. It's a role of the dice IMHO.


Honestly, I'm more worried about our crumbling infrastructure failing on it's own.

Agreed, our infrastructure is antiquated.


. . .the real danger is not going to be from another country or terrorist. It's going to be the civil unrest that comes with interruption of basic services. Japan we are not.

Undoubtedly.

BrigandTwoFour
06-16-11, 22:26
You could, theoretically, use a large enough nuclear weapon in a high altitude burst over central CONUS to produce a very large radius EMP effect. But there are a few things that make it more difficult than it's worth. Since EMP effects drop off with distance (and there is more than one kind of EMP radiation, each with varying intensity and range), you'd need a very very large bomb with a huge EMP signature. Nobody has fielded that kind of bomb on a missile in a very long time. Most nations that even possess the technology today are using smaller (and faster) missiles that just aren't capable of carrying that kind of payload.

Second, even if a country today did develop a bomb that would fit, and launched it, our systems detect and trace the source of a launch within 30 seconds. We would know exactly where it came from, and would consider it an act of war. I know from first hand experience that our retaliatory systems are hardened against pretty much anything but a direct hit from a nuclear weapon, and the response would be overwhelming. Any country that has the capability of performing such an EMP burst knows exactly what we could do in response, and that's not a gamble they're just not willing to take. If they were going to attempt a missile delivery, they would absolutely have to follow up with a full strike in an attempt to prevent retaliation.

Third, any country with the technology to launch an ICBM likely also has satellites providing them communications and intelligence. Any EMP burst at a high enough altitude to affect such a large area of the country is going to affect those space assets as well.

This is why I just don't think a high altitude burst based weapon is likely- especially when it's been proven that some well-placed sabotage can do just as much damage to our power grids as any EMP strike.

On the CME topic, I don't know enough to say for sure in either direction. I have no doubt that it is possible for a large enough CME to hit us and disrupt power, at least temporarily, but I have my doubts about it being some kind of societal ending event.

BrigandTwoFour
06-16-11, 22:33
I do not share your confidence in that our government is prepared for such an event. Yes, the Cold War taught us much but look at the troubles POTUS had trying to execute continuity of government from Air Force One on 9/11. He had no comms. I HOPE now the latest E-4Bs circumvent the sins of the past.



I don't mean that the system is robust enough to spring back for the country. In fact, I think our government is too incompetent to handle such an event. I just meant that there are systems designed to survive, and just about all those systems are intended solely to provide a retaliatory response and preserve a minimum of command and control.

9/11 is an interesting case study, but there were a lot of factors that day that contributed to the confusion. I don't think the full story about how much was actually going on (and how much communication was actually happening) has been released. I know quite a bit about what happened that day, as several of my coworkers were on board the NAOC, ABNCP, or underground at USSTRATCOM that day. There is a lot that isn't being said and, unfortunately, I'm can't really say anything about it for a variety of reasons.

Moose-Knuckle
06-16-11, 23:54
BrigandTwoFour, you sir are a wealth of knowledge. I thank you for your contribution to this thread. :cool:

Irish
06-20-11, 17:37
North Korea tests "Super EMP" nuclear device. (http://www.newsmax.com/KenTimmerman/super-emp-emp-northkorea-nuke/2011/06/16/id/400260)

VooDoo6Actual
06-20-11, 17:43
Don't worry nothing to fear. Everybody loves the US.

Irish
06-20-11, 17:47
Don't worry nothing to fear. Everybody loves the US.

LOL! :ph34r:

Irish
07-22-11, 00:47
China develops EMP to use against U.S. aircraft carriers. (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jul/21/beijing-develops-radiation-weapons/)

Weaver
07-22-11, 06:54
Yet another example of the Washington Times hyping old information as if it was new and earth shattering - and a new threat to our country. There is nothing new in that article - just an acknowldegement that you can use nuclear warheads at varying altitudes to produce EMPs.

It's not some sort of new EMP-producing weapon, or something that aircraft carriers are particularly vulnerable to.

Given the ranges involved, it shoud fall within the protection umbrella already existing over carrier task forces.

Just a Jarhead
06-16-12, 05:36
Dr. Peter Vincent Pry: America May Never Recover From EMP Attack

Dr. Peter Vincent Pry is the Executive Director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security for the Congressional Caucus on EMP (Electro-Magnetic Pulse) that endeavors to carry on the work of the EMP Commission. He is also the Director of the United States Nuclear Strategy Forum, an advisory body to Congress on policies to counter weapons of mass destruction.

Dr. Pry has served on the staffs of the EMP Commission, the Strategic Posture Commission, the Commission on the New Strategic Posture of the U.S., the House Armed Services Committee and the Central Intelligence Agency.

For those unfamiliar with what an EMP (Electro-Magnetic Pulse) attack is, please view the segment on the topic from the Clarion Fund’s Iranium by clicking here.

The following is RadicalIslam.org’s national security analyst Ryan Mauro’s interview with Dr. Pry:

http://www.radicalislam.org/analysis/dr-peter-vincent-pry-america-may-never-recover-emp-attack

Armati
06-16-12, 13:09
Two cents on EMP:

Mass EMP effects are only a concern during large scale nuclear war. In this case, EMP will be added bonus to already extremely bad situation.

EMP threats from rouge nations or terrorists would be much more localized. Mostly we would be concerned with a high altitude EMP strike using a conventional nuke, or a purpose build EMP bomb set off in a city.

A high altitude nuke, or nuke set off in LEO, would cause great damage to the planet's satellite infrastructure. This does keep some planners up at night. Allowing Iran or North Korea to get a single nuke is bad, not because they might nuke a single city (which would be bad) but because they could crash world's global communication and navigation system. Just-in-time manufacturing has created a system where there are not large warehouses of 'stuff'. Products (to include food and fuel) are made and shipped based on current retail demand. This distribution system requires satellite communication. Imagine if tomorrow someone turned off all of the international flights, all of the international shipping, most domestic rail operations, and most domestic trucking - no GPS and very limited phone communication - all from a single nuclear weapon detonated in low Earth orbit. In three days, everything you are use to buying would run out at retail stores with resupply being weeks away as the system tried to reset it's self.

If you believe the Iran, North Korea, or elements in Pakistan are crazy enough to launch a nuke, then you need to be preparing for the above scenario. Dropping a nuke on city is strategic equivalent of shooting someone in the foot with a .22 - you may hobble your opponent for a little while. Detonating a nuke in LEO is the strategic equivalent of shooting someone with a .22 in the eye - you may kill them and at the very least they will lose an eye.

However, if you are concerned about a localized EMP here are some suggestions:

Turn your house into a Faraday Cage. Use metal siding, a metal roof, and aluminum window screens. Make sure it all properly grounded.

Use a steel ammo can to keep a few survival electronic devices in. Keep it in your basement and grounded on the floor. A recommended packing list might include:

Solar panels with rechargeable batteries. I like the Goal Zero product line. You might want to start with portable systems and work your way to base station. You will be one of the few people with electricity.

Radio equipment (FRS, GMRS, Ham, or whatever you are comfortable with). There will be a few Ham operators who have planned for this too. FRS and GMRS are not really taken seriously by radio buffs but it beats a blank, is widely available, cheap, and you will be one of the few people with tactical comms. More serious users may want to cache VHF marine radios. I am pretty sure the FCC will not care at that point.

Electro-optical devices - night vision, RDS, laser range finders ect. Again, very few people will have any of that stuff.

One thing to keep in mind, if it is properly stored (about a 50/50 proposition) your local National Guard may very well have working equipment - generators, trucks, fuel, radios, night vision and other such equipment.

TheJRK
06-22-12, 17:03
The average person is concerned with country X getting nuclear weapons. What they don't think about is - how is country X going to deliver that nuclear device? That's the harder part of the equation. Are they going to use a ballistic missile? Developing a warhead that could survive the stresses of re-entry and deliver the nuclear device with some level of accuracy is much more difficult than most people realize.

Heavy Metal
06-22-12, 18:39
Allowing Iran or North Korea to get a single nuke is bad, not because they might nuke a single city (which would be bad) but because they could crash world's global communication and navigation system. Just-in-time manufacturing has created a system where there are not large warehouses of 'stuff'. Products (to include food and fuel) are made and shipped based on current retail demand. This distribution system requires satellite communication. Imagine if tomorrow someone turned off all of the international flights, all of the international shipping, most domestic rail operations, and most domestic trucking - no GPS and very limited phone communication - all from a single nuclear weapon detonated in low Earth orbit. In three days, everything you are use to buying would run out at retail stores with resupply being weeks away as the system tried to reset it's self.

Nope, that effect only works against unhardened assets in LEO. Most of our LEO Mil stuff is rad-hardened.

Com-Sats are in high earth orbit and GPS sats are in mid-earth orbit. Pumping the area below the Van Allen Belts with a nuclear device would have zero effect on them as those assets are far above the Belts confining effects. Pumping the area above the Van Allen Belts would be like farting in a vaccum, it would harmlessly and rapidly dissapate into deep space.

Thomas M-4
06-22-12, 19:45
Nope, that effect only works against unhardened assets in LEO. Most of our LEO Mil stuff is rad-hardened.

Com-Sats are in high earth orbit and GPS sats are in mid-earth orbit. Pumping the area below the Van Allen Belts with a nuclear device would have zero effect on them as those assets are far above the Belts confining effects. Pumping the area above the Van Allen Belts would be like farting in a vaccum, it would harmlessly and rapidly dissapate into deep space.

Hant Ha there is this book called on fart after that says we all well be using ox carts and indian smoke fire signals to communicate. And be sides didn't you play COD then you would know how bad it sucks to use iron sights.

Redmanfms
06-22-12, 20:07
Hant Ha there is this book called on fart after that says we all well be using ox carts and indian smoke fire signals to communicate. And be sides didn't you play COD then you would know how bad it sucks to use iron sights.

:blink:

Are you drunk?

Thomas M-4
06-22-12, 20:14
:blink:

Are you drunk?

Not quite yet but I am working on it :alcoholic:

Just a Jarhead
06-23-12, 05:43
The average person is concerned with country X getting nuclear weapons. What they don't think about is - how is country X going to deliver that nuclear device? That's the harder part of the equation. Are they going to use a ballistic missile? Developing a warhead that could survive the stresses of re-entry and deliver the nuclear device with some level of accuracy is much more difficult than most people realize.

You obviously did not take the time to read the link I posted two post up, from perhaps the worlds leading scientist regarding this, Dr. Vincent Pry. An intercontinental ballistic missle is not needed. I prefer to listen to the experts rather than all the talking heads that "think" they know what they are talking about on any given subject.

Dr. Peter Vincent Pry: Any state or group possessing any nuclear weapon and any missile capable of reaching an altitude over 30-40 kilometers can make an EMP attack. An ICBM is not necessary. An EMP attack can be delivered by a short-range missile launched from a ship, such as a commercial freighter, operating near U.S. shores. Iran has practiced such a delivery mode. Iran already has missiles, such as Scuds and its Shahab-III, capable of delivering a nuclear warhead......and from bullet point #4...Iran, North Korea, China and Russia all certainly understand this, as reflected in their military writings.

Likewise, I listen to Nouriel Roubini, Peter Schiff, Gerald Celente, Dr. Marc Faber...these men got the stock market collapse and housing bubble bust right, years prior to these events, while the "Haaaarvard elite" & "Mass News Media" mocked and ridiculed them as being doom & gloom, like a few of the blinded, ignorant, uninformed on this site who venture onto these threads to mock ocassionally. Once again these men (all of them) say buckle your seatbelts folks, it's going to get extremely bumpy. It's vital where you get your information and who you listen to.

TheJRK
06-24-12, 00:11
You obviously did not take the time to read the link I posted two post up, from perhaps the worlds leading scientist regarding this, Dr. Vincent Pry. An intercontinental ballistic missle is not needed. I prefer to listen to the experts rather than all the talking heads that "think" they know what they are talking about on any given subject.

You're right, I didn't read the article you linked to because I'm well aware of what Dr. Pry has to say since I've spent the last 15 years working in U.S. missile defense. In this case YOU are the talking head with no technical knowledge/training or background on such matters and instead try to ride on the intellectual coat tails of others.

Just a Jarhead
06-24-12, 06:58
You're right, I didn't read the article you linked to because I'm well aware of what Dr. Pry has to say since I've spent the last 15 years working in U.S. missile defense. In this case YOU are the talking head with no technical knowledge/training or background on such matters and instead try to ride on the intellectual coat tails of others.

Please feel free to post your credentials proving why anyone should/would listen to you over Dr. Peter Vincent Pry http://www.google.com/search?q=dr.+peter+vincent+pry&rls=com.microsoft:en-us:IE-SearchBox&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sourceid=ie7&rlz=1I7GGLL_en , or feel free to post studies or articles on the subject matter that you have had published http://www.ferc.gov/EventCalendar/Files/20120502132652-Pry,%20Homeland%20Security.pdf or any high level committees or organanizations that you chair, sit on, testified before, or act as an advisor to. CIA like Dr. Pry? EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR of the Task Force on Homeland Security like Dr. Pry? Or just post your name and we'll do the googling ourselves. Surely with your vast expertise and knowledge you have testified and advised Congress mutiple times on the subject. I didn't think so.

The statement "I've spent the last 15 years working in U.S. missile defense" is hollow, shallow, unsubstantiated meaningless fluff on the Internet. For all we know you swept the floors. Since you have the audacity to openly call the statements of one of the leading experts on this subject b.s., prove your expert knowledge on the subject.. Otherwise....bow out gracefully, have a nice day and let's just move on before you embarras yourself even further!

TheJRK
06-24-12, 07:57
Where did I call Dr. Pry's work bullshit? If I'm familiar with what someone has said on a matter why should I have to read it again because someone posted it on a gun forum? I was calling YOU out. You try to come off as some EMP and ballistic missile expert simply because you post links and papers by someone else. What is it that YOU do for a living? You say that Iran has Scuds and Shahabs... but don't realize that those are two separate missile systems (a Shahab being an improved version of the Russian SCUD). In short, Iran doesn't have any "SCUDs". But you probably already knew this right? Or do I need to give you time to dig up another unclassified paper paper so that you can post a link and feel self righteous?

You are trying to rally others to your cause by falsely claiming that I claimed to be more of an expert than Dr. Pry.

You're obviously taking this discussion as a personal attack on your prepper mentality which was never my intent. Don't think that you can cyber bully someone out of a forum.

kmrtnsn
06-24-12, 14:27
I think there is a lot of ever statement of the effectiveness of an EMP device. Even during the height of the cold war, U.S. and Soviet plans for such devices never extended beyond the tactical use, which means they only had a small and limited effective range, perhaps to deny use of an airfield, or staging area. Detonating an EMP device in the path of inbound bombers was one situation I remember reading, but really, there are more effective and less expensive ways to stop a plane, or several of them.

One question would be, who has an intercontinental delivery system, that could reach a target in the U.S.? That list is very small. The next would be who has the technological wherewithal to build such a device? That list is as small, or smaller. The next question, should an EMP device make it through our defensive measures how much long term damage would it do? My thinking is that that I would be more concerned about the residual radiation that whether or not my car started.

A lot of this EMP effectiveness talk is definitely overstating the threat.

ashooter
06-26-12, 17:05
bypassing the "my dick's bigger than yours" discussion... and please forgive me for not wading through every post in this thread.

The scenario I fear (as a non-expert with a tiny dick) is that somebody could get one of these nukes that is purpose designed to give off a big EMP yield on top of a SCUD or something similar. Then they bring that(those) missle(s) into the Gulf of Mex or off the coast of Kalifornia or New York in a container ship(s), launch it(them) from 50-100 miles offshore and f*ck up our world.

Is this scenario feasible, or paranoid delusion?

:confused:

TheJRK
06-26-12, 18:35
The scenario you are referring to is typically called "SCUD in a tub". The US actually conducted a test to see if it was technically feasible to load a SCUD TEL unto a container ship, sail it out to sea, erect the missile, and then launch it.

They concluded that it was possible, given a competent crew (both that was familiar with launching the missile in question and sailing a vessel of sufficient size to carry it).... and ideal weather (sea state and calm winds at altitude). Remember a system like a SCUD is designed to be launched from land, not from a ship that is rocking and rolling on the high seas.

That being said, the scenario is highly unlikely for one main reason. The "bad guys" or "bad country" would have to acquire:

1. A ship of sufficient size to carry the (in this case let's say a SCUD).
2. The missile itself plus the TEL to transport it and launch it.
3. A nuclear device small enough to fit in the missile.
4. A crew that can launch the missile as well as a crew that can sail the ship (or a crew that could do both).
5. Access to a port to load the missile on the ship.
6. Sail the ship within distance of the US (SRBM range in this case).

Now... they would have to do all of the above steps WITHOUT BEING DETECTED BY US/ALLIED/ISRAELI/ETC. INTELLIGENCE ASSETS.

This is the part that a lot of people don't consider.

*Edit - I should've thrown in a disclaimer that I learned all of the above information while sweeping floors. So take it with a grain of salt. ;)

ashooter
06-26-12, 19:26
Thank you, TheJRK.

All of that makes sense. I hadn't really considered the fact that the "bad guys" would be likely to get detected by the "good guys" even if they had port access and tech support from somebody like Iran or NK, or even PRC. I will sleep a little easier tonight.

Just a Jarhead
06-27-12, 09:32
Thank you, TheJRK.

All of that makes sense. I hadn't really considered the fact that the "bad guys" would be likely to get detected by the "good guys" even if they had port access and tech support from somebody like Iran or NK, or even PRC. I will sleep a little easier tonight.

Makes sense hunh? Now read this..http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1656/2

This is a response by Dr.'s Pry & Radasky (Members EMP Commission) to Dr. Butt' article entitled
The EMP threat: fact, fiction, and response (part 1)
by Yousaf M. Butt

I've linked to page 2 of the article which explains why shipborne "annonymous" EMP attack is THE most likely scenario and why.

If you want to read Dr Butt's article here it is http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1549/1

It's not a contest of who's dick is bigger between me and TRK. I give you documentation, facts and articles from the experts, he, an anonymous Internet poster gives his opinion without validating his credentials other than " I worked in missile defense for 15 years". Note...he still has not stated what capacity he worked in. You're free to accept whatever or who's thought processes you want.

ashooter
06-27-12, 09:52
I'm not picking sides, just making a smart-ass comment based on the fact that way too often these forum discussions degenerate into petty pissing matches.

From my perspective as an amateur who has not given this scenario more than an occasional cursory glance, you BOTH make sense. I think it's highly possible, but probably unlikely, at least compared to other threats like a Mumbai-type attack, bioweapon attack, or even a complete societal meltdown as a result of economic/monetary collapse.

As far as EMP's, (again, as a non-expert who's spent little time studying this) I think the most likely scenarios for that would be localized non-nuclear (like terrorists with some kind of directed energy device), or Chicom backed or executed nuclear EMP.

The demographic problem in China, combined with the collapsing economy, might some day make them decide they have more to lose by doing nothing than by knocking us back into the stone age. After all, those kinds of issues have caused most of the wars in the last few thousand years.