30 cal slut
09-30-11, 07:22
A very reliable (and carefully watched) economic outfit - Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) stated this morning that we are tipping into recession.
I am probably posting to you what is apparently obvious to everybody, but in my mind this is about as official as it gets, given ECRI's near-perfect track record of predicting recessions. The outfit's long-leading growth index for the US has been tanking for months now. Apparently, the intensity and duration of this downturn (starting in June), along with a flood of alarm bells prompted ECRI to make the call this morning.
We don’t make these calls lightly. When we make them, it’s because there’s an overwhelming objective message coming out of our forward-looking indicators. What is going on with the leading indicators is wildfire; it’s not reversible.
I have been tracking ECRI for over ten of fifteen years in my career as an investment securities analyst on Wall Street. I have never heard Lakshman Achuthan speak in the gloomy tone that he did this morning.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-30/u-s-is-heading-toward-another-recession-ecri-s-achuthan-says-tom-keene.html
U.S. Tipping Into Another Recession, Achuthan Says: Tom Keene 2011-09-30 13:17:29.726 GMT
By Liz Capo McCormick
Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The world’s largest economy is showing signs of slumping, said the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s Lakshman Achuthan, citing leading indicators.
“The U.S. economy is tipping into a new recession,” Achuthan, the group’s chief operations officer in New York, said in a radio interview today on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt. “You have wildfire among the leading indicators across the board. Non-financial services plunging, manufacturing plunging, exports plunging. That is such a deadly combination.”
The Federal Reserve’s efforts to support the economy, including holding its benchmark rate at virtually zero since December 2008 and expanding its balance sheet to a record $2.88 trillion -- have done little to reduce unemployment that has hovered around 9 percent since April 2009 or to revive the housing market.
...
“We at least have a couple of quarters of worsening economy in front of us,” Achuthan said. “So if you think this is a bad economy, you haven’t seen anything yet.”
For Related News and Information:
Top Stories: TOP <GO>
Top Fixed-Income News: TOP BON <GO>
Bond Yield Forecasts: BYFC <GO>
Top Italian news: ITAT <GO>
--Editors: Dennis Fitzgerald, Paul Cox
To contact the reporter on this story:
Liz Capo McCormick in New York at +1-212-617-7416 or emccormick7@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Dave Liedtka at +1-212-617-8988 or dliedtka@bloomberg.net
I am probably posting to you what is apparently obvious to everybody, but in my mind this is about as official as it gets, given ECRI's near-perfect track record of predicting recessions. The outfit's long-leading growth index for the US has been tanking for months now. Apparently, the intensity and duration of this downturn (starting in June), along with a flood of alarm bells prompted ECRI to make the call this morning.
We don’t make these calls lightly. When we make them, it’s because there’s an overwhelming objective message coming out of our forward-looking indicators. What is going on with the leading indicators is wildfire; it’s not reversible.
I have been tracking ECRI for over ten of fifteen years in my career as an investment securities analyst on Wall Street. I have never heard Lakshman Achuthan speak in the gloomy tone that he did this morning.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-30/u-s-is-heading-toward-another-recession-ecri-s-achuthan-says-tom-keene.html
U.S. Tipping Into Another Recession, Achuthan Says: Tom Keene 2011-09-30 13:17:29.726 GMT
By Liz Capo McCormick
Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The world’s largest economy is showing signs of slumping, said the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s Lakshman Achuthan, citing leading indicators.
“The U.S. economy is tipping into a new recession,” Achuthan, the group’s chief operations officer in New York, said in a radio interview today on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt. “You have wildfire among the leading indicators across the board. Non-financial services plunging, manufacturing plunging, exports plunging. That is such a deadly combination.”
The Federal Reserve’s efforts to support the economy, including holding its benchmark rate at virtually zero since December 2008 and expanding its balance sheet to a record $2.88 trillion -- have done little to reduce unemployment that has hovered around 9 percent since April 2009 or to revive the housing market.
...
“We at least have a couple of quarters of worsening economy in front of us,” Achuthan said. “So if you think this is a bad economy, you haven’t seen anything yet.”
For Related News and Information:
Top Stories: TOP <GO>
Top Fixed-Income News: TOP BON <GO>
Bond Yield Forecasts: BYFC <GO>
Top Italian news: ITAT <GO>
--Editors: Dennis Fitzgerald, Paul Cox
To contact the reporter on this story:
Liz Capo McCormick in New York at +1-212-617-7416 or emccormick7@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Dave Liedtka at +1-212-617-8988 or dliedtka@bloomberg.net