Dah - unarmed citizenry

[platoonDaddy]

Dah - unarmed citizenry, certainly doesn’t take members of Mensa to figure this out.


-The biggest increase was in the 1st District, which includes Capitol Hill, where violent crime jumped by 69 percent, with 110 incidents reported compared with 65 at this point last year. The highest increase was in the 7th District, east of the Anacostia River, where 181 were reported, up 43 percent from the 127 incidents recorded at this point in 2011

Violent crime in D.C. surges in 2012
Internal police data show citywide problem
By Andrea Noble

The Washington Times

Sunday, February 19, 2012

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/feb/19/violent-crime-dc-surges-2012/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS

[An Undocumented Worker]

While I don't disagree that a lack of armed citizens results in an increase in violent crime, I'm gonna provide a different hypothesis.

We have had a very mild winter this year on the eastern half of the nation. Good weather brings more people outside, bad weather drives em indoors, both lawabiding and criminal. I personally would like to see the crime statistics in dc paired with weather data to see what the trend is there.

[citizensoldier16]

Honestly, I think weather patterns, while important, have little to do with the overall crime rate. Heck, one could tie time of day to crime too. Criminals won't rob houses when its dinner time at Wendy's.

The biggest factor here is fear...people's fear of crime, as well as criminals' fear of meeting an armed homeowner. Rain or shine, snow or sun...criminals do not fear imprisonment anywhere near as much as they do two to the chest and one to the head.

[Abraxas]

While I don't disagree that a lack of armed citizens results in an increase in violent crime, I'm gonna provide a different hypothesis.

We have had a very mild winter this year on the eastern half of the nation. Good weather brings more people outside, bad weather drives em indoors, both lawabiding and criminal. I personally would like to see the crime statistics in dc paired with weather data to see what the trend is there.

There is more truth to your theory than most would ever dream of.

[An Undocumented Worker]

Honestly, I think weather patterns, while important, have little to do with the overall crime rate. Heck, one could tie time of day to crime too. Criminals won't rob houses when its dinner time at Wendy's.

The biggest factor here is fear...people's fear of crime, as well as criminals' fear of meeting an armed homeowner. Rain or shine, snow or sun...criminals do not fear imprisonment anywhere near as much as they do two to the chest and one to the head.

The short and simple is, these statistics are for Jan 1st 2012 to now in DC vs the same period last year. There is no significant difference in the number of armed citizens in DC this year vs last year. The only significant change from this time period this year vs last year, is there has been seriously abnormally warm and pleasant weather this winter vs the very brutal weather last winter. This equals more badguys on the prowl.

I am willing to make the prediction that the crime rate in DC from this point foreward throughout this year will not be as different from last year as this winter has been. Mainly due to the conditions that keep people inside coming to an end in the next month and generally normal to warmer temps will continue up untill next winter. Do I have any training in criminal psychology, no. But I do know that I and most other people like to get out when weather permits and stay out of the cold and snow if there is some.

And from what I understand, most criminals are creatures of opportunity, and nasty weather reduces that opportunity. That nasty weather has been conspicuously absent this winter.

Would a greater percentage of armed citizens reduce the violent crime rate? I have no doubt in my mind that it would. I just don't see that happening in DC any time soon, but thats no reason not to fight to have that right back.

[citizensoldier16]

Would a greater percentage of armed citizens reduce the violent crime rate? I have no doubt in my mind that it would. I just don't see that happening in DC any time soon, but thats no reason not to fight to have that right back.

You're absolutely right. Let me apologize if it sounded like I was disagreeing with you. I wasn't disputing your claim, just stating my opinion that given weather vs armed citizens, armed citizens deters crime more. It is very obvious that more armed citizens reduces crime, and you're very much in the right by stating that warmer weather leads to increased crime. We're arriving at the same conclusion...that we need to fight to exercise our right to self defense...albeit in different ways. Apologies if I offended you...that was certainly not my intent whatsoever.

[An Undocumented Worker]

You're absolutely right. Let me apologize if it sounded like I was disagreeing with you. I wasn't disputing your claim, just stating my opinion that given weather vs armed citizens, armed citizens deters crime more. It is very obvious that more armed citizens reduces crime, and you're very much in the right by stating that warmer weather leads to increased crime. We're arriving at the same conclusion...that we need to fight to exercise our right to self defense...albeit in different ways. Apologies if I offended you...that was certainly not my intent whatsoever.

No offense was taken whatsoever, I was just clarifying my point.

And I absolutely agree that the gun is the great equalizer among civilian populations, and necessary for a just and free society.

I just like to try and see the whole picture when it comes to statistics, especially when they are being used to emphasize a point.

It just seems that way more often than not, statistics are misused or taken out of context to make people come to a conclusion that the actual statistics don't support. While I'm not saying these statistics were misused, the story was incomplete.

Just as we try to fight statistics misused by the anti's we should strive not to fall into the same or similar trap when arguing for our liberty.


Oh and this quote from the article seems to illustrate how shortsighted our elected and appointed officials appear to be when it comes determining cause and effect.

Police Chief Cathy L. Lanier warned of a citywide spike in robberies at a Feb. 10 news conference. She said the increase was attributable to criminals targeting smartphones and similar electronics.
While I'm sure those may be the goods the criminals are targeting, is it really also the cause of such are large spike in crime, I personally don't buy it.