(COVID/ETC CONTENT HERE) China Locks Down 11 Million in Wuhan,

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03-29-20, 17:45
Honu

johns hopkins is saying medical errors are now the 3rd leading cause of deaths in US and kills about 250,000 each year or more ?
you can walk into the doctor and DIE !!!! OH NO :)
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/news...eath_in_the_us

your %1.8 from only those tested
so only % 0.041 of our population has been tested so sure take that out of that number and you realize how tiny it really is so far

so yes you can say %1.8 of %0.041 of our population has tested or to say mortality rate is %0.0007 so far
will it go up yeah how far ? well lets listen to what Fauci says cause he is smarter on this then all of us here combined

Quote:

“I mean looking at what we’re seeing now, you know, would say between 100 and 200,000 cases. But I don’t want to be held to that because — excuse me, deaths. We’re going to have millions of cases. But I just don’t think we really need to make a projection when it’s such a moving target that you can so easily be wrong and mislead people.”

so quit listening quit reading about this over %1 stuff that is being thrown around honestly to much stress worry over this stuff IMHO anyway :)

as my fellow 2nd suporter and gun person forum M4C guy etc... so this is not to bash you :) this is to give you another perspective and realize the sky is not falling over this and to try to look at it with other glasses on :) we are so lucky to live in this country compared to anywhere else right now ! I could not imagine

I also lost all my work for at least 4 months out or till we can have large groups again and my wife lost half her income we still have one source ironic as that is its out of China ? go figure !

so glad Trump said gun and ammo shops are part of the economy :) hahahahahaaahhah OH would love to see the lefties go mad now

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arik

Why? Because no matter how hard I try I can't infect anyone else with diabetes. Just can't! I can't walk into a hospital and sneeze a few times and pass on my diabetes. Or my car accident.

If this was as contagious as a drunk driver it would have never left China.

At the moment death rate is 1.80%

I will say this. I don't know the answer. I don't agree with sitting home. I'm out of a job as of this Friday and everything is closed till April 6th. Hopefully it will all be back up next Monday and I can go to work again.
But at the same time I don't believe it's just a flu and while I have no health issues or pre existing conditions I am a 40 year old ex smoker with blood pressure that hovers between normal and pre hypertension whos been trying to lose 20 pounds but can't! So I want nothing to do with this thing where as I never gave a shit about the flu, even smoked with a temp of 104. With this, if I go to work in a week, im definitely not going to be helping the economy aside from getting gas and needed groceries.
03-29-20, 17:58
thopkins22

Well, if they have any sense of humor at all, they’ll prop Joe Diffie up by a jukebox in a closed and empty bar.

Very sad news, but surely not the last we’ll hear.
03-29-20, 18:28
Arik

Quote:

Originally Posted by Honu

johns hopkins is saying medical errors are now the 3rd leading cause of deaths in US and kills about 250,000 each year or more ?
you can walk into the doctor and DIE !!!! OH NO :)
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/news...eath_in_the_us

your %1.8 from only those tested
so only % 0.041 of our population has been tested so sure take that out of that number and you realize how tiny it really is so far

so yes you can say %1.8 of %0.041 of our population has tested or to say mortality rate is %0.0007 so far
will it go up yeah how far ? well lets listen to what Fauci says cause he is smarter on this then all of us here combined

so quit listening quit reading about this over %1 stuff that is being thrown around honestly to much stress worry over this stuff IMHO anyway :)

as my fellow 2nd suporter and gun person forum M4C guy etc... so this is not to bash you :) this is to give you another perspective and realize the sky is not falling over this and to try to look at it with other glasses on :) we are so lucky to live in this country compared to anywhere else right now ! I could not imagine

I also lost all my work for at least 4 months out or till we can have large groups again and my wife lost half her income we still have one source ironic as that is its out of China ? go figure !

so glad Trump said gun and ammo shops are part of the economy :) hahahahahaaahhah OH would love to see the lefties go mad now

Its the population that's been tested. Can't count anyone else because no one else matters. It's only the part that got sick not the whole population. You're counting the whole population when the only ones that matter are those who got sick.
03-29-20, 18:33
Business_Casual

Has anyone reviewed the Neil Ferguson retraction on the virus effect in the UK? They are revising estimates downward by an order of magnitude. Think about that.
03-29-20, 18:35
1168

Quote:

Originally Posted by thopkins22

Well, if they have any sense of humor at all, they’ll prop Joe Diffie up by a jukebox in a closed and empty bar.

Very sad news, but surely not the last we’ll hear.

You win the internet today.
03-29-20, 18:57
chuckman

Quote:

Originally Posted by Business_Casual

Has anyone reviewed the Neil Ferguson retraction on the virus effect in the UK? They are revising estimates downward by an order of magnitude. Think about that.

Yes, significant revisions regarding case fatality rate and number of fatalities, not because the virus is not significant, but in large part because of social distancing, quarantines, and lockdowns. The other part in the fine print that people are ignoring is although the numbers are being revised down, the numbers requiring ICU care are actually going up.
03-29-20, 19:08
FromMyColdDeadHand

Quote:

Originally Posted by Honu

johns hopkins is saying medical errors are now the 3rd leading cause of deaths in US and kills about 250,000 each year or more ?
you can walk into the doctor and DIE !!!! OH NO :)
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/news...eath_in_the_us

your %1.8 from only those tested
so only % 0.041 of our population has been tested so sure take that out of that number and you realize how tiny it really is so far

so yes you can say %1.8 of %0.041 of our population has tested or to say mortality rate is %0.0007 so far
will it go up yeah how far ? well lets listen to what Fauci says cause he is smarter on this then all of us here combined

so quit listening quit reading about this over %1 stuff that is being thrown around honestly to much stress worry over this stuff IMHO anyway :)

as my fellow 2nd suporter and gun person forum M4C guy etc... so this is not to bash you :) this is to give you another perspective and realize the sky is not falling over this and to try to look at it with other glasses on :) we are so lucky to live in this country compared to anywhere else right now ! I could not imagine

I also lost all my work for at least 4 months out or till we can have large groups again and my wife lost half her income we still have one source ironic as that is its out of China ? go figure !

so glad Trump said gun and ammo shops are part of the economy :) hahahahahaaahhah OH would love to see the lefties go mad now

It’s like Italy never happened. ‘But Italy is so different...’. and then Spain is popping. Frankly I’d have to say that in general our population overall is less healthy than the European ones, you’re going to see potentially a lot more younger deaths and complications from this.

When you look at the outcomes in Italy, it would be criminal not to do anything. Other countries tried the reverse quarantine with the old people, but it didn’t work. People are too much of selfish assholes. Did the Chinese had lied about all of this, and if people would’ve actually done the social distancing when it was first being touted, we would have a lot faster and less impactful downtime and health effects. But no people have to go out and be stupid.

I think with social distancing until mid April you’re looking at 100,000 to 500,000 deaths. With some nasty pockets looking like northern Italy.
03-29-20, 19:33
Honu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arik

Its the population that's been tested. Can't count anyone else because no one else matters. It's only the part that got sick not the whole population. You're counting the whole population when the only ones that matter are those who got sick.

well better tell the CDC and Johns Hopkins etc..... they are doing stats wrong then !

it does matter the whole population is at risk so you include the WHOLE population in stats !
yes you can also break it down to those tested and those not or those hospitalized and those not etc...

so yes others do matter ! we have not tested enough again %1.8 rate of %0.041 of our population that has been tested and you can not put out %1.8 without knowing what % it is of !!!

so comparing this to the flu with our US population since again we are all at risk the flu is about .018
covid is %0.0007 so by this REAL number WOW the flu is so much worse since ALL of us are at risk one could say

or lets play your game cherry pic numbers just those hospitalized by the flu 2017-2018 was 810,000 hospitalized with a death rate 46,000-95,000 so mortality rate of the flu if you are hospitalized is %5.6 to %11.7

so again to quote Fauci

Quote:

“I mean looking at what we’re seeing now, you know, would say between 100 and 200,000 cases. But I don’t want to be held to that because — excuse me, deaths. We’re going to have millions of cases. But I just don’t think we really need to make a projection when it’s such a moving target that you can so easily be wrong and mislead people.”
03-29-20, 19:50
Honu

Quote:

Originally Posted by FromMyColdDeadHand

It’s like Italy never happened. ‘But Italy is so different...’. and then Spain is popping. Frankly I’d have to say that in general our population overall is less healthy than the European ones, you’re going to see potentially a lot more younger deaths and complications from this.

When you look at the outcomes in Italy, it would be criminal not to do anything. Other countries tried the reverse quarantine with the old people, but it didn’t work. People are too much of selfish assholes. Did the Chinese had lied about all of this, and if people would’ve actually done the social distancing when it was first being touted, we would have a lot faster and less impactful downtime and health effects. But no people have to go out and be stupid.

I think with social distancing until mid April you’re looking at 100,000 to 500,000 deaths. With some nasty pockets looking like northern Italy.

why not compare us to Japan or South Korea ?

and sorry to break this news to you but yes Italy and really any European country is radically different then the US in so many ways and how they handled this for so long

again Fauci knows more than all of us here I am willing to bet !

so again to quote Fauci

Quote:

“I mean looking at what we’re seeing now, you know, would say between 100 and 200,000 cases. But I don’t want to be held to that because — excuse me, deaths. We’re going to have millions of cases. But I just don’t think we really need to make a projection when it’s such a moving target that you can so easily be wrong and mislead people.”
03-29-20, 21:34
FromMyColdDeadHand

Why not compare us to Japan or South Korea? Because our tracks look nothing like theirs.

I really wish people would stop looking at number of deaths from smaller countries for two reasons, you need to 5-10X their populations to get to ours, and it isn't the number of deaths today compared to theirs today, it is the when you get to the relative number deaths. This isn't a death count game, it is a calendar fight.

Don't think that we are OK because we are 1/4 of projected deaths- at our current rate that doesn't mean that we are 1/4 screwed, it just means that we are 4-6 days away from that. That's how these progressions go. Plus, this is the worlds worst 'throttle', you take action now that can only be measured in about 10-14 days for initial effects, but about a month for the real long term impact.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/

I count about 2500 new deaths in the EU. Not sure what 'New' means, I assume per day. We are at 250, but at current trends we'll be there in about a week. While most countries have death rates that bend down, ours has actually inflected up to a shorter time interval to doubling deaths. USA, USA, USA.

And Spain is pulling ahead of Italy in new deaths. Now we'll hear about how the Spanish are different. Pretty soon, we'll just blame it on Catholics.

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