Using CARVER to identify and reduce your risk (long)
Michael Yon has a short note in his newsletter describing the CARVER attack modeling process and how its being employed worldwide to plan for sabotaging critical infrastructure. He provides a few links that give a thumbnail description of how it works.
https://michaelyon.substack.com/p/ca...lobal-sabotage
The methodology is straightforward; it is easily mastered and used by area study experts. The Devil is in the details, of course, because it demands significant intelligence about potential targets, the impact of their destruction on the enemy, etc. It also gives a false sense of objectivity to the analyses because it assigns numerical values to subjective data to derive numerical ranking of attack values (qualitative vs quantitative risk analyses). All in all, it was a good system in its day, easily adaptable to MS Office spreadsheets using simple algorithms.
Modern attack models using faster computers, very large data bases and weighted variables in use now do the same job with better graphics and fewer powerpoint slides. However, it still comes down to giving a decision maker a series of risk choices based on subjective assumptions and biased conclusions.
Of course, there are methodologies in place that work to defeat an enemy's use of a CARVER-like attacks against us through structured risk management. This counter process suffers from all the same weaknesses of the attack model.
So what does this matter to us in SHTF/TEOTWAWKI/WROL (and other hard times)?
If you've ever felt helpless to know where to start to get ready for hard times, CARVER, and your own version of reverse-CARVER, can be very helpful. You can use a reverse version of the methodology to drive your individual preparations for whatever you believe is going to happen in your immediate future, the mid-term, and long term.
This process to manage your risks lends itself to simple structure, allows you to identify what matters most to you and your family, put together a process to address your most critical needs first, and monitor your progress through the use of metrics that are meaningful to you. Look over the graphics in Yon's links, cherry pick what matters to you, rank order them, and figure out how to resolve your problems. It takes some study, conversations with those near-and-dear to you, and a commitment to start as soon as you can. A survey of articles at Survivalblog.com is a good place to start.
